Now, that was just too funny for me not to share. No joking today, though, we have a slate to bust up and brief out for you Army Members.
Before we dig into NBA, I thought I’d share with you some of our MLB plans since opening day is upon us. We plan to deliver a lot of content. As of this writing, premium content has not been settled. However, the plan going forward is to give you all you can handle in April…….for free. Whether or not we implement a VIP MLB program remains to be seen. But, for now, you will get everything as if we are offering premium content free of charge. Take advantage of that while it lasts…..look HERE for MLB content.
Fall in, soldiers!! This process isn’t intended to take long. It’s a skim, if you will. You are starting your research by quickly glancing over the day’s slate and gathering your early intel. Our goal is to give you a head start on today’s action. Keith and I will be back later with picks and analysis for the slate for our VIP Insiders, as well as provide answers to questions as much as possible in the VIP Slack channels.
Daily Fantasy Players are priced by many factors. Some of the key factors are the teams’ seasonal averages in points scored and the pace at which they play. We can assume if a team is expected to score more points than they usually do, players from that team are in a better than usual spot to succeed. We can also assume if a team is expected to play at a faster pace than usual, their players are in a better than usual spot to succeed.
VEGAS LINES – It honestly all starts here. 200 is the standard for a game in which we can expect fantasy goodness to appear. But, a lot more factors come into play, too. We don’t try to predict blowouts, but red spreads indicate the possibility. I will also add the NBA is changing. Last season, there may have been one game total over 230. This season, we have already seen more than ever. 190 totals are becoming more uncommon than common. We may revisit the magical 200 someday and call it 215. Either way, I am targeting the highest few games on any slate, regardless of the totals. I use this graphic as a guide.
| Road Team | Home Team | Favorite | Spread | Total | Tip-Off | |
| Philadelphia 76ers (9-66) | at | Charlotte Hornets (43-31) | CHA | -15.5 | 206.5 | 7:00 PM |
| Dallas Mavericks (37-38) | at | Detroit Pistons (40-35) | DET | -6 | 205.5 | 7:30 PM |
| Brooklyn Nets (21-53) | at | New York Knicks (30-46) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 7:30 PM |
| Orlando Magic (31-43) | at | Milwaukee Bucks (31-44) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 8:00 PM |
| Cleveland Cavaliers (52-22) | at | Atlanta Hawks (45-31) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 8:00 PM |
| Toronto Raptors (50-24) | at | Memphis Grizzlies (41-34) | TOR | -5.5 | 197 | 8:00 PM |
| Minnesota Timberwolves (25-50) | at | Utah Jazz (37-38) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 9:00 PM |
| Miami Heat (43-31) | at | Sacramento Kings (30-45) | MIA | -7.5 | 212.5 | 10:00 PM |
| Boston Celtics (43-31) | at | Golden State Warriors (68-7) | GS | -12 | 223.5 | 10:30 PM |
| Washington Wizards (36-39) | at | Phoenix Suns (20-55) | WAS | -7 | 214 | 10:30 PM |
POINTED UP! – The teams with green numbers for +/- PPG (Points Per Game) are expected to outperform their seasonal scoring averages per Vegas. Teams with red are expected to under-perform.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Team Total | PPG | Team +/- |
| Milwaukee Bucks | ORL | TBD | 99 | TBD |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | UTA | TBD | 102 | TBD |
| Atlanta Hawks | CLE | TBD | 102.9 | TBD |
| Utah Jazz | MIN | TBD | 97.8 | TBD |
| New York Knicks | BKN | TBD | 98.5 | TBD |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | ATL | TBD | 103.9 | TBD |
| Orlando Magic | MIL | TBD | 101.4 | TBD |
| Brooklyn Nets | NY | TBD | 98.8 | TBD |
| Charlotte Hornets | PHI | 111 | 103.1 | 7.9 |
| Washington Wizards | PHO | 110.5 | 103.4 | 7.1 |
| Detroit Pistons | DAL | 105.8 | 102.2 | 3.6 |
| Phoenix Suns | WAS | 103.5 | 100.5 | 3 |
| Golden State Warriors | BOS | 117.8 | 115.1 | 2.7 |
| Miami Heat | SAC | 110 | 99.6 | 10.4 |
| Boston Celtics | GS | 105.8 | 105.6 | 0.2 |
| Sacramento Kings | MIA | 102.5 | 106.9 | -4.4 |
| Dallas Mavericks | DET | 99.8 | 103 | -3.3 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | TOR | 95.8 | 99.1 | -3.3 |
| Toronto Raptors | MEM | 101.3 | 102.9 | -1.7 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | CHA | 95.5 | 97 | -1.5 |
PACED UP! – Similar to being pointed up, the teams in green should be playing faster than normal while the teams in red should be playing slower. More possessions might mean more opportunity to score points.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Pace | Proj. Pace | Pace +/- |
| Miami Heat | SAC | 95.7 | 99.9 | 4.2 |
| Boston Celtics | GS | 101.1 | 104.9 | 3.8 |
| Golden State Warriors | BOS | 101.9 | 104.9 | 3 |
| Washington Wizards | PHO | 100.5 | 102.9 | 2.4 |
| Phoenix Suns | WAS | 100.5 | 102.9 | 2.4 |
| Charlotte Hornets | PHI | 97.9 | 100.2 | 2.3 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | ATL | 95.3 | 96.3 | 1 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | ORL | 96.3 | 96.2 | -0.1 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | CHA | 100.4 | 100.2 | -0.2 |
| Utah Jazz | MIN | 93.5 | 93 | -0.5 |
| Dallas Mavericks | DET | 96.9 | 96.4 | -0.5 |
| New York Knicks | BKN | 95.8 | 94.8 | -1 |
| Detroit Pistons | DAL | 97.6 | 96.4 | -1.2 |
| Orlando Magic | MIL | 98 | 96.2 | -1.8 |
| Brooklyn Nets | NY | 97.1 | 94.8 | -2.3 |
| Sacramento Kings | MIA | 102.3 | 99.9 | -2.4 |
| Toronto Raptors | MEM | 95.5 | 93 | -2.5 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | TOR | 95.6 | 93 | -2.6 |
| Atlanta Hawks | CLE | 99.1 | 96.3 | -2.8 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | UTA | 97.6 | 93 | -4.6 |
TOTAL FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED & DvP RANKINGS – This graphic provides a quick glance at how strong or weak a defensive team plays overall, as well as against a specific position. We are looking for green numbers and trying to avoid red numbers, and we are looking to roster a player from the OPPONENT’s team in the 2nd column. Example, the WAS SG is, theoretically, in great spot.
| Team Defense | Opponent | TotalFPA | vs. PG | vs. SG | vs. SF | vs. PF | vs. C |
| Philadelphia 76ers | Charlotte | 29 | 27 | 19 | 29 | 28 | 30 |
| Sacramento Kings | Miami | 28 | 23 | 29 | 23 | 30 | 17 |
| Phoenix Suns | Washington | 26 | 29 | 30 | 27 | 14 | 14 |
| Brooklyn Nets | New York | 24 | 24 | 25 | 22 | 19 | 25 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | Orlando | 21 | 5 | 24 | 26 | 17 | 21 |
| Dallas Mavericks | Detroit | 20 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 27 | 16 |
| Orlando Magic | Milwaukee | 19 | 17 | 5 | 15 | 23 | 20 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Utah | 18 | 25 | 22 | 18 | 10 | 7 |
| Golden State Warriors | Boston | 16 | 26 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 22 |
| Charlotte Hornets | Philadelphia | 15 | 11 | 13 | 20 | 22 | 13 |
| Washington Wizards | Phoenix | 14 | 19 | 16 | 24 | 7 | 9 |
| Atlanta Hawks | Cleveland | 13 | 7 | 19 | 12 | 12 | 23 |
| Boston Celtics | Golden State | 12 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 24 | 27 |
| New York Knicks | Brooklyn | 11 | 20 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 12 |
| Detroit Pistons | Dallas | 9 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 10 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | Toronto | 8 | 10 | 4 | 14 | 15 | 5 |
| Toronto Raptors | Memphis | 5 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 8 |
| Miami Heat | Sacramento | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 4 | 6 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Atlanta | 3 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Utah Jazz | Minnesota | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
BACK 2 BACKS! – Graphics containing teams we should watch for limited minutes and/or rest days. Maybe hard to see the colors, but yellow is caution, orange is a little more caution, and red is just crazy.
| Team | B2B | 2of3 | 3of4 | 4of5 |
| Atlanta | Yes | |||
| Boston | Yes | |||
| Brooklyn | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Charlotte | ||||
| Chicago | ||||
| Cleveland | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Dallas | Yes | |||
| Denver | Yes | |||
| Detroit | ||||
| Golden State | Yes | Yes | ||
| Houston | ||||
| Indiana | ||||
| L.A. Clippers | Yes | |||
| L.A. Lakers | ||||
| Memphis | Yes | |||
| Miami | Yes | |||
| Milwaukee | Yes | |||
| Minnesota | Yes | |||
| New Orleans | Yes | |||
| New York | Yes | |||
| Oklahoma City | ||||
| Orlando | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Philadelphia | ||||
| Phoenix | Yes | |||
| Portland | ||||
| Sacramento | Yes | |||
| San Antonio | ||||
| Toronto | Yes | |||
| Utah | Yes | |||
| Washington | Yes | Yes |
If you made it this far and appreciate the tips and snippits of advice you are getting, you might want to see/learn more. For information on joining the VIP Insiders, click HERE! You will gain access to:
- Private Slack channel exclusively for VIP Insiders, where you find DFS NBA pro Keith Hall actively answering questions and offering strategy advice.
- Daily player picks on slates with 5 or more games, only excluding Sundays.
- Daily cheatsheets for both FanDuel and DraftKings to help build your lineups.
- Early access to any and all semi-private freerolls on FanDuel or DraftKings offered to the DFS Army.
This Morning Briefing article, again, is not the end-all be-all when it comes to analyzing a slate. This is a first glance to identify targets we may want to dive deeper into. You may, in fact, choose a player in a poor DvP matchup due to other indicators, especially on a short slate night. Don’t overthink this stuff. The concept is to put your players in the best spots to be successful and roll them out. Keith and I will be back later to provide the VIP Insiders with more in-depth player analysis and specific picks for tonight. And, of course, the cheatsheets…… (Remembering, of course, cheatsheets come out on slates 5 games and larger.)
