Keep tweeting out those #300Club scores. It’s getting fun to watch the Army dominate some Twitter feeds. I haven’t been as active this week due to kids being on Spring Break. But, I did learn something I wanted to point out yesterday afternoon.
My daughter struggles some with history. She’s kind of a science girl. As we were cruising through a history book trying to break things down (research her slate) and budget her time (get a feel for where she should allocate her resources), we started talking about history (previous games and player production). As we poured over her text (Vegas Lines) and looked at her notes (DvP and pace/point up charts), some things started to materialize (weaknesses we could exploit).
History (past stats) may not be a guaranteed indicator of the future, but it certainly can point out things likely to repeat themselves. In history, we learned about Rome and WWII and the political and economical ramifications they brought. We learned what caused those events and possibly how we could have handled ourselves better. This “education” is supposed to help us learn our mistakes so we don’t make them again. Problem is that history often gets forgotten; swallowed up by the immediate present. And, then, history starts to repeat itself.
DFS is the same in a way. We can learn from past stats that player X does well vs Team A. We learn to roster him when his price dips below a certain point because he has brought value in the past. We use this experience to help us build a better roster than the new guy that doesn’t know this stuff yet. However, we can also get so consumed by the immediate present that we lose focus on what we’ve learned and the patterns we can look to when trying to predict an outcome. We try and apply new strategies and techniques; sometimes when we don’t need to. This serves to muddy the waters and overcomplicate things.
I hope my daughter realized history is a guide, not a predictor. I hope she realized history is a tool to help her future. I hope she realized she needs to study it in order to apply it. I hope she realized experience is just patience and process. I hope in writing these articles, you see that the same can be true in DFS. You can only learn from the past if you understand what the pattern tells you, and can apply it to your future process. All that said…….
Fall in, soldiers!! This process isn’t intended to take long. It’s a skim, if you will. You are starting your research by quickly glancing over the day’s slate and gathering your early intel. Our goal is to give you a head start on today’s action. Keith and I will be back later with picks and analysis for the slate for our VIP Insiders, as well as provide answers to questions as much as possible in the VIP Slack channels.
Daily Fantasy Players are priced by many factors. Some of the key factors are the teams’ seasonal averages in points scored and the pace at which they play. We can assume if a team is expected to score more points than they usually do, players from that team are in a better than usual spot to succeed. We can also assume if a team is expected to play at a faster pace than usual, their players are in a better than usual spot to succeed.
VEGAS LINES – It honestly all starts here. 200 is the standard for a game in which we can expect fantasy goodness to appear. But, a lot more factors come into play, too. We don’t try to predict blowouts, but red spreads indicate the possibility. I will also add the NBA is changing. Last season, there may have been one game total over 230. This season, we have already seen more than ever. 190 totals are becoming more uncommon than common. We may revisit the magical 200 someday and call it 215. Either way, I am targeting the highest few games on any slate, regardless of the totals. I use this graphic as a guide.
| Road Team | Home Team | Favorite | Spread | Total | Tip-Off | |
| Atlanta Hawks (41-30) | at | Washington Wizards (35-35) | ATL | -1 | 209 | 7:00 PM |
| Toronto Raptors (48-21) | at | Boston Celtics (41-30) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 7:30 PM |
| Orlando Magic (29-41) | at | Detroit Pistons (37-34) | DET | -7 | 209 | 7:30 PM |
| Utah Jazz (34-36) | at | Houston Rockets (35-35) | HOU | -3.5 | 200 | 8:00 PM |
| Sacramento Kings (27-43) | at | Minnesota Timberwolves (22-48) | MIN | -2.5 | 223.5 | 8:00 PM |
| Milwaukee Bucks (30-41) | at | Cleveland Cavaliers (50-20) | CLE | -11 | 206.5 | 8:00 PM |
| New York Knicks (28-43) | at | Chicago Bulls (36-33) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 8:00 PM |
| Miami Heat (40-29) | at | San Antonio Spurs (59-11) | SA | -11.5 | 196 | 8:30 PM |
| Philadelphia 76ers (9-62) | at | Denver Nuggets (29-42) | DEN | -10.5 | 212.5 | 9:00 PM |
| Los Angeles Lakers (14-55) | at | Phoenix Suns (19-51) | PHO | -4.5 | 210 | 10:00 PM |
| Los Angeles Clippers (43-26) | at | Golden State Warriors (63-7) | GS | -10 | 225.5 | 10:30 PM |
| Dallas Mavericks (35-35) | at | Portland Trail Blazers (36-35) | POR | -6 | 214.5 | 10:30 PM |
POINTED UP! – The teams with green numbers for +/- PPG (Points Per Game) are expected to outperform their seasonal scoring averages per Vegas. Teams with red are expected to under-perform.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Team Total | PPG | Team +/- |
| Toronto Raptors | BOS | TBD | 103 | TBD |
| New York Knicks | CHI | TBD | 98.5 | TBD |
| Chicago Bulls | NY | TBD | 101.8 | TBD |
| Boston Celtics | TOR | TBD | 106 | TBD |
| Denver Nuggets | PHI | 111.5 | 102.3 | 9.2 |
| Phoenix Suns | LAL | 107.3 | 100.2 | 7.1 |
| Detroit Pistons | ORL | 108 | 102.1 | 5.9 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | DAL | 110.3 | 104.5 | 5.8 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | PHO | 102.8 | 97.7 | 5.1 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | MIL | 108.8 | 103.9 | 4.8 |
| Sacramento Kings | MIN | 110.5 | 106.4 | 4.1 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | DEN | 101 | 96.9 | 4.1 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | GS | 107.8 | 104.6 | 3.2 |
| Golden State Warriors | LAC | 117.8 | 115.3 | 2.5 |
| Atlanta Hawks | WAS | 105 | 102.6 | 2.4 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | SAC | 113 | 101.7 | 11.3 |
| Dallas Mavericks | POR | 104.3 | 102.9 | 1.3 |
| Washington Wizards | ATL | 104 | 103.2 | 0.8 |
| Utah Jazz | HOU | 98.3 | 97.8 | 0.5 |
| Orlando Magic | DET | 101 | 100.8 | 0.2 |
| Miami Heat | SA | 92.3 | 99.3 | -7.1 |
| Houston Rockets | UTA | 101.8 | 106.1 | -4.3 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | CLE | 97.8 | 99.1 | -1.3 |
| San Antonio Spurs | MIA | 103.8 | 104.3 | -0.5 |
PACED UP! – Similar to being pointed up, the teams in green should be playing faster than normal while the teams in red should be playing slower. More possessions might mean more opportunity to score points.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Pace | Proj. Pace | Pace +/- |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | SAC | 97.5 | 101.6 | 4.1 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | GS | 98.2 | 102.1 | 3.9 |
| Toronto Raptors | BOS | 95.4 | 98.5 | 3.1 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | PHO | 98 | 100.3 | 2.3 |
| Atlanta Hawks | WAS | 99.1 | 101.4 | 2.3 |
| Denver Nuggets | PHI | 98.3 | 100.4 | 2.1 |
| Utah Jazz | HOU | 93.4 | 95.3 | 1.9 |
| Washington Wizards | ATL | 100.4 | 101.4 | 1 |
| New York Knicks | CHI | 95.9 | 96.6 | 0.7 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | DEN | 100.2 | 100.4 | 0.2 |
| Golden State Warriors | LAC | 102 | 102.1 | 0.1 |
| Phoenix Suns | LAL | 100.4 | 100.3 | -0.1 |
| Detroit Pistons | ORL | 97.6 | 97.5 | -0.1 |
| Dallas Mavericks | POR | 96.8 | 96.6 | -0.2 |
| Orlando Magic | DET | 98 | 97.5 | -0.5 |
| Sacramento Kings | MIN | 102.2 | 101.6 | -0.6 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | DAL | 97.9 | 96.6 | -1.3 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | MIL | 95.4 | 93.8 | -1.6 |
| Miami Heat | SA | 95.7 | 93.9 | -1.8 |
| Chicago Bulls | NY | 98.8 | 96.6 | -2.2 |
| San Antonio Spurs | MIA | 96.3 | 93.9 | -2.4 |
| Boston Celtics | TOR | 101.2 | 98.5 | -2.7 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | CLE | 96.5 | 93.8 | -2.7 |
| Houston Rockets | UTA | 100 | 95.3 | -4.7 |
TOTAL FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED & DvP RANKINGS – This graphic provides a quick glance at how strong or weak a defensive team plays overall, as well as against a specific position. We are looking for green numbers and trying to avoid red numbers, and we are looking to roster a player from the OPPONENT’s team in the 2nd column. Example, the PHX PG is, theoretically, in great spot.
| Team Defense | Opponent | TotalFPA | vs. PG | vs. SG | vs. SF | vs. PF | vs. C |
| Los Angeles Lakers | Phoenix | 30 | 30 | 28 | 28 | 19 | 28 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | Denver | 29 | 27 | 17 | 29 | 28 | 30 |
| Sacramento Kings | Minnesota | 28 | 22 | 29 | 23 | 30 | 19 |
| Houston Rockets | Utah | 27 | 13 | 24 | 30 | 29 | 20 |
| Phoenix Suns | L.A. Lakers | 26 | 29 | 30 | 27 | 16 | 11 |
| Chicago Bulls | New York | 25 | 28 | 15 | 26 | 23 | 24 |
| Denver Nuggets | Philadelphia | 23 | 17 | 27 | 18 | 25 | 13 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | Cleveland | 21 | 6 | 25 | 24 | 18 | 22 |
| Orlando Magic | Detroit | 20 | 19 | 5 | 17 | 22 | 15 |
| Dallas Mavericks | Portland | 19 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 27 | 16 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Sacramento | 18 | 21 | 22 | 19 | 12 | 7 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | Dallas | 17 | 25 | 19 | 4 | 21 | 26 |
| Golden State Warriors | L.A. Clippers | 15 | 26 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 21 |
| Atlanta Hawks | Washington | 14 | 5 | 21 | 13 | 14 | 23 |
| Washington Wizards | Atlanta | 13 | 15 | 17 | 25 | 7 | 8 |
| Boston Celtics | Toronto | 12 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 26 | 27 |
| New York Knicks | Chicago | 11 | 18 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 18 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | Golden State | 8 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 17 |
| Detroit Pistons | Orlando | 7 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 9 |
| Miami Heat | San Antonio | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 4 | 6 |
| Toronto Raptors | Boston | 4 | 3 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 10 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Milwaukee | 3 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Utah Jazz | Houston | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| San Antonio Spurs | Miami | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
Another easy thing to watch is exhaustion control. Many coaches will rest players on the 2nd half of consecutive games. Basketball can take it’s toll and coaches need to keep their players fresh when they can. Players playing back to back games become prime targets for rest or limited minutes, obviously hurting their fantasy production and value to us. We further watch for situations like 3 games in 4 nights or the dreaded 4 games in 5 nights. We also watch traveling teams with particular interest.
BACK 2 BACKS! – Graphics containing teams we should watch for limited minutes and/or rest days. Maybe hard to see the colors, but yellow is caution, orange is a little more caution, and red is just crazy.
| Team | B2B | 2of3 | 3of4 | 4of5 |
| Atlanta | ||||
| Boston | Yes | |||
| Brooklyn | ||||
| Charlotte | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Chicago | ||||
| Cleveland | ||||
| Dallas | ||||
| Denver | ||||
| Detroit | ||||
| Golden State | ||||
| Houston | ||||
| Indiana | ||||
| L.A. Clippers | ||||
| L.A. Lakers | ||||
| Memphis | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Miami | ||||
| Milwaukee | Yes | |||
| Minnesota | ||||
| New Orleans | Yes | |||
| New York | ||||
| Oklahoma City | ||||
| Orlando | Yes | |||
| Philadelphia | Yes | |||
| Phoenix | ||||
| Portland | ||||
| Sacramento | Yes | |||
| San Antonio | ||||
| Toronto | ||||
| Utah | ||||
| Washington |
If you made it this far and appreciate the tips and snippits of advice you are getting, you might want to see/learn more. For information on joining the VIP Insiders, click HERE! You will gain access to:
- Private Slack channel exclusively for VIP Insiders, where you find DFS NBA pro Keith Hall actively answering questions and offering strategy advice.
- Daily player picks on slates with 5 or more games, only excluding Sundays.
- Daily cheatsheets for both FanDuel and DraftKings to help build your lineups.
- Early access to any and all semi-private freerolls on FanDuel or DraftKings offered to the DFS Army.
Bankroll Challenge rolling results since Feb 22, 2016…..
| Date | Score | Money IN | Money Out | Profit/Loss | Adjusted Bankroll |
| Tues – 8 | 222.7 | 6 | 0 | -6 | 128.9 |
| Wed – 9a | 300 | 7 | 2.3 | -4.7 | 124.2 |
| Wed – 9b | 321.2 | 7 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 129.3 |
| Thrus – 10 | 301.5 | 8 | 4 | -4 | 125.3 |
| Fri – 11a | 279.1 | 12 | 2.5 | -9.5 | 115.8 |
| Fri – 11b | 336.6 | 9 | 30.2 | 21.2 | 137 |
| Fri – 18 | 162.5 | ||||
| Mon – 21 | 260.2 | 13 | 4.2 | -8.8 | 153.7 |
| Tues – 22 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 153.7 |
This Morning Briefing article, again, is not the end-all be-all when it comes to analyzing a slate. This is a first glance to identify targets we may want to dive deeper into. You may, in fact, choose a player in a poor DvP matchup due to other indicators, especially on a short slate night. Don’t overthink this stuff. The concept is to put your players in the best spots to be successful and roll them out. Keith and I will be back later to provide the VIP Insiders with more in-depth player analysis and specific picks for tonight. And, of course, the cheatsheets…… (Remembering, of course, cheatsheets come out on slates 5 games and larger.)
