Rough night for me with the Skiles rotation we shouldn’t ever trust. Yep…..he got me. That and early foul trouble apparently. Oh well, these slates happen. I still posted 290 when the lines were around 304 so I can’t be too pissed. Hopefully, you fared a bit better. We have a whopper of an 11-game slate tonight, which means the Army will have to be on point to knock one over the fence. Personally, it’s slates like these I’m not the most confident yet. My plan on 10-game slates and larger is to simply look for the smaller mini-slates within. Express slates and Late Night slates are where I’ll be if I can find one in my sweet spot of 5-8 games. If you have trouble with larger, full slates I definitely recommend you do the same thing. Your inventory of Pepto Bismol will thank you. For the VIP Insiders, the write-up coming later and the cheatsheets will be covering the slate in it’s entirety, not a cut down version. I don’t want there being any confusion in that regard.
I do have an Army LU from Monday’s slate. This was another good one posted by @tonetaylor. A 350 and a coinciding bink of a 100man league for a 20x ROI is never a bad thing. In the Army, we are big fans of smaller GPP-type events. This is a great example of why. Look at what 352 gave our comrade in the 100man league…..then, look at what it gave him in the Shot. I’ll take $6 over $100 any day of the week and twice on Wednesday. We won’t ever advocate avoiding bigger GPPs entirely. We are trying to inform our privates that your ROI will thank you by putting the majority of your league/gpp entries in the smaller stuff that’s easier to take down with near nut LUs instead of needing the absolute nuts. Either way, it’s a great LU from @tonetaylor!
Fall in, soldiers!! This process isn’t intended to take long. It’s a skim, if you will. You are starting your research by quickly glancing over the day’s slate and gathering your early intel. Our goal is to give you a head start on today’s action. Keith and I will be back later with picks and analysis for the slate for our VIP Insiders, as well as provide answers to questions as much as possible in the VIP Slack channels.
Daily Fantasy Players are priced by many factors. Some of the key factors are the teams’ seasonal averages in points scored and the pace at which they play. We can assume if a team is expected to score more points than they usually do, players from that team are in a better than usual spot to succeed. We can also assume if a team is expected to play at a faster pace than usual, their players are in a better than usual spot to succeed.
VEGAS LINES – It honestly all starts here. 200 is the standard for a game in which we can expect fantasy goodness to appear. But, a lot more factors come into play, too. We don’t try to predict blowouts, but red spreads indicate the possibility. I will also add the NBA is changing. Last season, there may have been one game total over 230. This season, we have already seen 4 or more. 190 totals are becoming more uncommon than common. We may revisit the magical 200 someday and call it 215. Either way, I am targeting the highest few games on any slate, regardless of the totals. I use this graphic as a guide.
| Road Team | Home Team | Favorite | Spread | Total | Tip-Off | |
| Charlotte Hornets (30-28) | at | Philadelphia 76ers (8-52) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 7:00 PM |
| Chicago Bulls (30-28) | at | Orlando Magic (26-32) | ORL | -3 | 209 | 7:00 PM |
| Utah Jazz (28-31) | at | Toronto Raptors (39-19) | TOR | -6 | 194 | 7:30 PM |
| Portland Trail Blazers (32-28) | at | Boston Celtics (36-25) | BOS | -5 | 219 | 7:30 PM |
| New Orleans Pelicans (23-35) | at | Houston Rockets (29-31) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 8:00 PM |
| Sacramento Kings (24-34) | at | Memphis Grizzlies (35-24) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 8:00 PM |
| Indiana Pacers (31-29) | at | Milwaukee Bucks (25-35) | IND | -2 | 202.5 | 8:00 PM |
| Washington Wizards (29-30) | at | Minnesota Timberwolves (19-41) | WAS | -4 | 220 | 8:00 PM |
| Detroit Pistons (31-29) | at | San Antonio Spurs (50-9) | SA | -10.5 | 200.5 | 8:30 PM |
| Los Angeles Lakers (11-49) | at | Denver Nuggets (23-37) | DEN | -7 | 211.5 | 9:00 PM |
| Oklahoma City Thunder (42-18) | at | Los Angeles Clippers (39-20) | LAC | -1 | 220.5 | 10:30 PM |
POINTED UP! – The teams with green numbers for +/- PPG (Points Per Game) are expected to outperform their seasonal scoring averages per Vegas. Teams with red are expected to under-perform.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Team Total | PPG | Team +/- |
| New Orleans Pelicans | HOU | TBD | 102.9 | TBD |
| Sacramento Kings | MEM | TBD | 107.2 | TBD |
| Houston Rockets | NO | TBD | 105.7 | TBD |
| Memphis Grizzlies | SAC | TBD | 99.1 | TBD |
| Philadelphia 76ers | CHA | TBD | 96.4 | TBD |
| Charlotte Hornets | PHI | TBD | 101.5 | TBD |
| Washington Wizards | MIN | 112 | 103 | 9 |
| Denver Nuggets | LAL | 109.3 | 100.8 | 8.5 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | WAS | 108 | 101.1 | 6.9 |
| Boston Celtics | POR | 112 | 106 | 6 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | OKC | 110.8 | 105 | 5.8 |
| Orlando Magic | CHI | 106 | 100.8 | 5.2 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | DEN | 102.3 | 97.5 | 4.8 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | BOS | 107 | 103.6 | 3.4 |
| Chicago Bulls | ORL | 103 | 101.6 | 1.4 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | IND | 100.3 | 99.1 | 1.2 |
| San Antonio Spurs | DET | 105.5 | 105 | 0.5 |
| Indiana Pacers | MIL | 102.3 | 102.3 | 0 |
| Detroit Pistons | SA | 95 | 101.8 | -6.8 |
| Utah Jazz | TOR | 94 | 98 | -4 |
| Toronto Raptors | UTA | 100 | 102.3 | -2.3 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | LAC | 109.8 | 110.3 | -0.5 |
PACED UP! – Similar to being pointed up, the teams in green should be playing faster than normal while the teams in red should be playing slower. More possessions might mean more opportunity to score points.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Pace | Proj. Pace | Pace +/- |
| Memphis Grizzlies | SAC | 95.3 | 99.7 | 4.4 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | BOS | 97.7 | 101.2 | 3.5 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | WAS | 97.1 | 99.4 | 2.3 |
| Charlotte Hornets | PHI | 97.6 | 99.8 | 2.2 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | HOU | 98.6 | 100.4 | 1.8 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | OKC | 98.3 | 99.7 | 1.4 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | IND | 96.7 | 98.1 | 1.4 |
| Orlando Magic | CHI | 97.3 | 98 | 0.7 |
| Houston Rockets | NO | 99.8 | 100.4 | 0.6 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | LAC | 99.4 | 99.7 | 0.3 |
| Denver Nuggets | LAL | 98.1 | 98.3 | 0.2 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | DEN | 98.2 | 98.3 | 0.1 |
| Boston Celtics | POR | 101.5 | 101.2 | -0.3 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | CHA | 100.2 | 99.8 | -0.4 |
| San Antonio Spurs | DET | 96.4 | 96 | -0.4 |
| Chicago Bulls | ORL | 98.7 | 98 | -0.7 |
| Washington Wizards | MIN | 100.3 | 99.4 | -0.9 |
| Indiana Pacers | MIL | 99.4 | 98.1 | -1.3 |
| Detroit Pistons | SA | 97.6 | 96 | -1.6 |
| Utah Jazz | TOR | 93.4 | 90.8 | -2.6 |
| Sacramento Kings | MEM | 102.4 | 99.7 | -2.7 |
| Toronto Raptors | UTA | 95.4 | 90.8 | -4.6 |
TOTAL FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED & DvP RANKINGS – This graphic provides a quick glance at how strong or weak a defensive team plays overall, as well as against a specific position. We are looking for green numbers and trying to avoid red numbers, and we are looking to roster a player from the OPPONENT’s team in the 2nd column. Example, the CHA C is, theoretically, in great spot.
| Team Defense | Opponent | TotalFPA | vs. PG | vs. SG | vs. SF | vs. PF | vs. C |
| Los Angeles Lakers | Denver | 30 | 30 | 28 | 29 | 23 | 28 |
| Sacramento Kings | Memphis | 29 | 26 | 30 | 24 | 29 | 20 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | Charlotte | 28 | 24 | 15 | 28 | 28 | 30 |
| Houston Rockets | New Orleans | 27 | 14 | 22 | 30 | 30 | 16 |
| Chicago Bulls | Orlando | 26 | 28 | 14 | 23 | 21 | 25 |
| Denver Nuggets | L.A. Lakers | 24 | 23 | 27 | 15 | 25 | 19 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | Indiana | 22 | 7 | 26 | 25 | 22 | 12 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | Houston | 21 | 16 | 25 | 12 | 15 | 29 |
| Orlando Magic | Chicago | 20 | 20 | 4 | 20 | 18 | 10 |
| Charlotte Hornets | Philadelphia | 19 | 13 | 13 | 22 | 24 | 15 |
| Washington Wizards | Minnesota | 18 | 15 | 24 | 26 | 8 | 12 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Washington | 15 | 22 | 21 | 18 | 9 | 8 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | Boston | 13 | 17 | 19 | 5 | 19 | 26 |
| Boston Celtics | Portland | 12 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 27 | 27 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | L.A. Clippers | 10 | 21 | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 |
| Indiana Pacers | Milwaukee | 9 | 10 | 16 | 6 | 13 | 14 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | Oklahoma City | 8 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 22 |
| Detroit Pistons | San Antonio | 7 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 12 | 9 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | Sacramento | 6 | 9 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 2 |
| Toronto Raptors | Utah | 5 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| Utah Jazz | Toronto | 2 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| San Antonio Spurs | Detroit | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
Another easy thing to watch is exhaustion control. Many coaches will rest players on the 2nd half of consecutive games. Basketball can take it’s toll and coaches need to keep their players fresh when they can. Players playing back to back games become prime targets for rest or limited minutes, obviously hurting their fantasy production and value to us. We further watch for situations like 3 games in 4 nights or the dreaded 4 games in 5 nights. We also watch traveling teams with particular interest.
BACK 2 BACKS! – Graphic containing teams we should watch for limited minutes and/or rest days. Maybe hard to see the colors, but yellow is caution, orange is a little more caution, and red is just crazy.
| Team | B2B | 2of3 | 3of4 | 4of5 |
| Atlanta | ||||
| Boston | Yes | |||
| Brooklyn | Yes | |||
| Charlotte | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Chicago | Yes | |||
| Cleveland | ||||
| Dallas | ||||
| Denver | Yes | |||
| Detroit | ||||
| Golden State | ||||
| Houston | Yes | |||
| Indiana | Yes | Yes | ||
| L.A. Clippers | Yes | |||
| L.A. Lakers | Yes | |||
| Memphis | Yes | |||
| Miami | ||||
| Milwaukee | Yes | |||
| Minnesota | ||||
| New Orleans | ||||
| New York | ||||
| Oklahoma City | Yes | |||
| Orlando | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Philadelphia | Yes | Yes | ||
| Phoenix | ||||
| Portland | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Sacramento | Yes | |||
| San Antonio | ||||
| Toronto | ||||
| Utah | Yes | |||
| Washington | Yes | Yes |
Here is where I use this graph again. As you saw from yesterday, there is some evidence supporting players not performing in back-to-back games. On an 11-game slate where you need to be on point in all your player picks, I think this graphic becomes more important. If you look at the CHI @ ORL game, you may see a decent total and a close spread. You may become seduced by everyone else being on other, larger games. It’s your call, but I’m fading this game entirely since both are on B2B games. Yesterday’s evidence shows you may still do well, but it’s pretty much a coin flip across historical study. I don’t feel I can flip coins on full slates. At least not in cash games. Tourney fliers might be fine, but I don’t think a lot of people watch this “exhaustion news,” if you want to call it that. So, I don’t think this tidbit of knowledge really affects the crowd/herd much. I’d also be watching POR for obvious reasons. Portland is paced up, pointed up, and in a nice total/spread with the freaking BOS front court we love to target. But………4 games in 5 nights? I’m not so sure I want to take the increased chances with the Blazers on a road trip across the country on a full slate. On a 4-game slate, I’d likely have no choice. My point is that today you have choices. Look closely at them and choose wisely. I have not looked at this slate deeply yet, so I may actually come back to them before it’s all said and done, but for this early recon my antennae are certainly up for a possible trap situation.
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- Private Slack channel exclusively for VIP Insiders, where you find DFS NBA pro Keith Hall actively answering questions and offering strategy advice.
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- Early access to any and all semi-private freerolls on FanDuel or DraftKings offered to the DFS Army.
Bankroll Challenge results for week of Feb 22, 2016…..
| Date | Score | Money IN | Money Out | Profit/Loss | Adjusted Bankroll |
| Mon – 22 | 316.6 | 5 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 66.3 |
| Tues – 23 | 278.8 | 14 | 17.3 | 3.3 | 69.6 |
| Wed – 24 | 286.3 | 16 | 14 | -2 | 67.6 |
| Thurs – 25 | 328 | 12 | 37.1 | 25.1 | 92.7 |
| Fri – 26 | 298.6 | 10 | 17.9 | 7.9 | 100.6 |
| Mon-29 | 332.6 | 19 | 45 | 26 | 126.6 |
| Tues-1 | 289.9 | 14 | 1.9 | -12.1 | 114.5 |
This Morning Briefing article, again, is not the end-all be-all when it comes to analyzing a slate. This is a first glance to identify targets we may want to dive deeper into. You may, in fact, choose a player in a poor DvP matchup due to other indicators, especially on a short slate night. Don’t overthink this stuff. The concept is to put your players in the best spots to be successful and roll them out. Keith and I will be back later to provide the VIP Insiders with more in-depth player analysis and specific picks for tonight. And, of course, the cheatsheets……now with Sample Cash LUs! (Remembering, of course, cheatsheets come out on slates 5 games and larger.)
