I’m going to apologize in advance for the lack of information in this article. The Vegas Lines were not released last night by the time I headed to bed, so I put off writing the column. When I woke up, only one additional line came out…..OKC @GSW. So, half our games are going to be without Vegas totals. It’s a 4-game slate, so we get what we get.
I will also add that our Slack Channels have been very good lately near tip off for late-breaking news. Lots of players are sweating the games in our general #nba-talk channel and all our VIPs are active with which players are the best plays and which pivots are coming when a player is announced as “out” in their members-only, private channel. Keith Hall is heading most of this up as tipoff approaches and the players seeing more activity have been spot-on due to his knowledge. I’d encourage you to become a member for the final 2 months of the season as we start heading down the home stretch here. I’m learning more now that I did during the entire first half of the NBA season, and it’s no coincidence.
Fall in, soldiers!! This process isn’t intended to take long. It’s a skim, if you will. You are starting your research by quickly glancing over the day’s slate and gathering your early intel. Our goal is to give you a head start on today’s action. Keith and I will be back later with picks and analysis for the slate for our VIP Insiders, as well as provide answers to questions as much as possible in the VIP Slack channels.
Daily Fantasy Players are priced by many factors. Some of the key factors are the teams’ seasonal averages in points scored and the pace at which they play. We can assume if a team is expected to score more points than they usually do, players from that team are in a better than usual spot to succeed. We can also assume if a team is expected to play at a faster pace than usual, their players are in a better than usual spot to succeed.
VEGAS LINES – It honestly all starts here. 200 is the standard for a game in which we can expect fantasy goodness to appear. But, a lot more factors come into play, too. We don’t try to predict blowouts, but red spreads indicate the possibility. I will also add the NBA is changing. Last season, there may have been one game total over 230. This season, we have already seen 4 or more. 190 totals are becoming more uncommon than common. We may revisit the magical 200 someday and call it 215. Either way, I am targeting the highest few games on any slate, regardless of the totals. I use this graphic as a guide.
| Road Team | Home Team | Favorite | Spread | Total | Tip-Off | |
| Phoenix Suns (15-45) | at | Miami Heat (34-26) | MIA | -14 | 211 | 7:30 PM |
| San Antonio Spurs (50-9) | at | New Orleans Pelicans (23-35) | SA | -8.5 | 207 | 8:00 PM |
| Sacramento Kings (24-34) | at | Dallas Mavericks (33-28) | DAL | -7 | 220.5 | 8:30 PM |
| Oklahoma City Thunder (42-18) | at | Golden State Warriors (54-5) | GSW | -6.5 | 225 | 10:30 PM |
POINTED UP! – The teams with green numbers for +/- PPG (Points Per Game) are expected to outperform their seasonal scoring averages per Vegas. Teams with red are expected to under-perform.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Team Total | PPG | Team +/- |
| Golden State Warriors | OKC | 115.75 | 115.3 | 0.4 |
| Dallas Mavericks | SAC | TBD | 102.5 | TBD |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | GS | 109.25 | 110.3 | -1 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | SA | TBD | 102.9 | TBD |
| San Antonio Spurs | NO | TBD | 105 | TBD |
| Sacramento Kings | DAL | TBD | 107.2 | TBD |
| Miami Heat | PHO | 112.5 | 97.5 | 15 |
| Phoenix Suns | MIA | 98.5 | 100.5 | -2 |
I had to double-check that green one. Yes, MIA is pointed up 15 pts over their average in this matchup with PHX. I think that’s the highest I’ve seen since the All Star Break.
PACED UP! – Similar to being pointed up, the teams in green should be playing faster than normal while the teams in red should be playing slower. More possessions might mean more opportunity to score points.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Pace | Proj. Pace | Pace +/- |
| Dallas Mavericks | SAC | 96.4 | 100.8 | 4.4 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | GS | 99.4 | 103.6 | 4.2 |
| Miami Heat | PHO | 95.4 | 97.8 | 2.4 |
| Golden State Warriors | OKC | 102.2 | 103.6 | 1.4 |
| San Antonio Spurs | NO | 96.4 | 97 | 0.6 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | SA | 98.6 | 97 | -1.6 |
| Sacramento Kings | DAL | 102.4 | 100.8 | -1.6 |
| Phoenix Suns | MIA | 100.4 | 97.8 | -2.6 |
It doesn’t exactly jump off the page, but MIA is also paced up a tad, too. That’s two checkmarks in two places we look…..
TOTAL FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED & DvP RANKINGS – This graphic provides a quick glance at how strong or weak a defensive team plays overall, as well as against a specific position. We are looking for green numbers and trying to avoid red numbers, and we are looking to roster a player from the OPPONENT’s team in the 2nd column. Example, the MIA SG is, theoretically, in great spot.
| Team Defense | Opponent | TotalFPA | vs. PG | vs. SG | vs. SF | vs. PF | vs. C |
| Sacramento Kings | Dallas | 29 | 26 | 29 | 24 | 29 | 20 |
| Phoenix Suns | Miami | 26 | 29 | 30 | 27 | 16 | 7 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | San Antonio | 21 | 17 | 25 | 12 | 14 | 29 |
| Golden State Warriors | Oklahoma City | 16 | 25 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 21 |
| Dallas Mavericks | Sacramento | 15 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 15 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Golden State | 10 | 21 | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 |
| Miami Heat | Phoenix | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 6 |
| San Antonio Spurs | New Orleans | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
Now, it’s time to get out the Q-tips and clean those ears really well. This is a 4-gm slate. I’m not saying to avoid all Pelican players. I’m saying TRY TO. I know Anthony Davis can impose his will. I also know if there is a weak spot in the San Antonio defense, it’s at PG. You might not see a better matchup, especially on FanDuel where you have to roster two at most positions. But, this graphic is pointing to teams like MIA (our theme of the day) being in a great spot and warranting the most of our consideration. It’s also pointing to NO and PHX being in pretty bad spots. On a 10-game slate, these are usually easy to dodge. But, on a 4-game slate you might have to take one or two of these guys. It is what it is…….just be cautious if you have to pull that trigger. Ok, you can throw away the Q-tip now.
Another easy thing to watch is exhaustion control. Many coaches will rest players on the 2nd half of consecutive games. Basketball can take it’s toll and coaches need to keep their players fresh when they can. Players playing back to back games become prime targets for rest or limited minutes, obviously hurting their fantasy production and value to us. We further watch for situations like 3 games in 4 nights or the dreaded 4 games in 5 nights. We also watch traveling teams with particular interest.
BACK 2 BACKS! – Graphics containing teams we should watch for limited minutes and/or rest days. Maybe hard to see the colors, but yellow is caution, orange is a little more caution, and red is just crazy.
| Team | B2B | 2of3 | 3of4 | 4of5 |
| Atlanta | ||||
| Boston | ||||
| Brooklyn | ||||
| Charlotte | Yes | |||
| Chicago | Yes | |||
| Cleveland | ||||
| Dallas | Yes | |||
| Denver | ||||
| Detroit | ||||
| Golden State | Yes | |||
| Houston | ||||
| Indiana | ||||
| L.A. Clippers | ||||
| L.A. Lakers | Yes | |||
| Memphis | ||||
| Miami | Yes | |||
| Milwaukee | ||||
| Minnesota | ||||
| New Orleans | Yes | |||
| New York | ||||
| Oklahoma City | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Orlando | Yes | |||
| Philadelphia | ||||
| Phoenix | Yes | |||
| Portland | Yes | |||
| Sacramento | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| San Antonio | Yes | |||
| Toronto | ||||
| Utah | ||||
| Washington |
For those of you that read this column yesterday, you saw the full effect of this section. POR was red and they kind of hurt more than they helped. Exhaustion is a real thing. My tip today would be to pay close attention to San Antonio. They are on the back side of a B2B set of games. Popovich is notorious for resting players without giving the media any notice. They play at 8 pm tonight, which is early-ish, but it’s also after the first game locks up. If you are going to play this short slate tonight, make sure you are available for an hour or so before lock on FanDuel just in case some news breaks. If you don’t stay up on it tonight, you are at a serious disadvantage in your games.
If you made it this far and appreciate the tips and snippits of advice you are getting, you might want to see/learn more. For information on joining the VIP Insiders, click HERE! You will gain access to:
- Private Slack channel exclusively for VIP Insiders, where you find DFS NBA pro Keith Hall actively answering questions and offering strategy advice.
- Daily player picks on slates with 5 or more games, only excluding Sundays.
- Daily cheatsheets for both FanDuel and DraftKings to help build your lineups.
- Early access to any and all semi-private freerolls on FanDuel or DraftKings offered to the DFS Army.
Bankroll Challenge results for week of Feb 22, 2016…..
| Date | Score | Money IN | Money Out | Profit/Loss | Adjusted Bankroll |
| Mon – 22 | 316.6 | 5 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 66.3 |
| Tues – 23 | 278.8 | 14 | 17.3 | 3.3 | 69.6 |
| Wed – 24 | 286.3 | 16 | 14 | -2 | 67.6 |
| Thurs – 25 | 328 | 12 | 37.1 | 25.1 | 92.7 |
| Fri – 26 | 298.6 | 10 | 17.9 | 7.9 | 100.6 |
| Mon-29 | 332.6 | 19 | 45 | 26 | 126.6 |
| Tues-1 | 289.9 | 14 | 1.9 | -12.1 | 114.5 |
| Wed-2 | 265.7 | 11 | 10.7 | -0.3 | 114.2 |
| Wed-2b | 253.8 | 9 | 4.4 | -5.6 | 109.6 |
Last night was a huge 11-game slate. I don’t like those typically, as I don’t feel I have a skill advantage there. I want to get better and wanted to test my new contest-selection approach. It worked fine as even at my weakest point I was able to nearly break even. The 8 pm slate was only 5 games and one in which I felt I had an advantage. A few of my guys didn’t exactly pan out, so I was well down. However, I’m not going to complain about getting back half of what I put in on a “bad night.” But…..here’s to hoping things turn around a bit tonight. I won’t be concerning myself with results too much for awhile because you can see the heater I went on (in terms of ROI) recently. I’m due some regression. As soon as we get this little bout of regression over with, I’ll hit the uptick again. It’s just what DFS does.
This Morning Briefing article, again, is not the end-all be-all when it comes to analyzing a slate. This is a first glance to identify targets we may want to dive deeper into. You may, in fact, choose a player in a poor DvP matchup due to other indicators, especially on a short slate night. Don’t overthink this stuff. The concept is to put your players in the best spots to be successful and roll them out. Keith and I will be back later to provide the VIP Insiders with more in-depth player analysis and specific picks for tonight. And, of course, the cheatsheets…… (Remembering, of course, cheatsheets come out on slates 5 games and larger.)
