Fall in, soldiers!! This process isn’t intended to take long. It’s a skim, if you will. You are starting your research by quickly glancing over the day’s slate and gathering your early intel. Our goal is to give you a head start on today’s action. Keith and I will be back later with picks and analysis for the slate for our VIP Insiders, as well as provide answers to questions as much as possible in the VIP Slack channels.
Daily Fantasy Players are priced by many factors. Some of the key factors are the teams’ seasonal averages in points scored and the pace at which they play. We can assume if a team is expected to score more points than they usually do, players from that team are in a better than usual spot to succeed. We can also assume if a team is expected to play at a faster pace than usual, their players are in a better than usual spot to succeed.
VEGAS LINES – It honestly all starts here. 200 is the standard for a game in which we can expect fantasy goodness to appear. But, a lot more factors come into play, too. We don’t try to predict blowouts, but red spreads indicate the possibility. I will also add the NBA is changing. Last season, there may have been one game total over 230. This season, we have already seen more than ever. 190 totals are becoming more uncommon than common. We may revisit the magical 200 someday and call it 215. Either way, I am targeting the highest few games on any slate, regardless of the totals. I use this graphic as a guide.
| Road Team | Home Team | Favorite | Spread | Total | Tip-Off | |
| New Orleans Pelicans (26-44) | at | Indiana Pacers (37-33) | IND | -13 | 207.5 | 7:00 PM |
| Chicago Bulls (36-33) | at | New York Knicks (28-43) | CHI | -4.5 | 202 | 7:30 PM |
| Cleveland Cavaliers (50-20) | at | Brooklyn Nets (19-51) | CLE | -8 | 208 | 7:30 PM |
| Utah Jazz (34-36) | at | Oklahoma City Thunder (49-22) | OKC | -9.5 | 199.5 | 8:00 PM |
| Portland Trail Blazers (36-35) | at | Los Angeles Clippers (43-26) | LAC | -5 | 214 | 10:30 PM |
POINTED UP! – The teams with green numbers for +/- PPG (Points Per Game) are expected to outperform their seasonal scoring averages per Vegas. Teams with red are expected to under-perform.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Team Total | PPG | Team +/- |
| Indiana Pacers | NO | 110.3 | 101.8 | 8.5 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | POR | 109.5 | 104.6 | 4.9 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | BKN | 108 | 103.9 | 4.1 |
| Brooklyn Nets | CLE | 100 | 98.3 | 1.7 |
| Chicago Bulls | NY | 103.3 | 101.8 | 1.5 |
| New York Knicks | CHI | 98.8 | 98.5 | 0.3 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | LAC | 104.5 | 104.5 | 0 |
| Utah Jazz | OKC | 95 | 97.8 | -2.8 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | UTA | 104.5 | 110.2 | -5.7 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | IND | 97.3 | 103.2 | -6 |
PACED UP! – Similar to being pointed up, the teams in green should be playing faster than normal while the teams in red should be playing slower. More possessions might mean more opportunity to score points.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Pace | Proj. Pace | Pace +/- |
| Utah Jazz | OKC | 93.4 | 94.8 | 1.4 |
| Indiana Pacers | NO | 99.1 | 100.2 | 1.1 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | IND | 99.2 | 100.2 | 1 |
| New York Knicks | CHI | 95.9 | 96.6 | 0.7 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | LAC | 97.9 | 98 | 0.1 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | POR | 98.2 | 98 | -0.2 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | BKN | 95.4 | 94.2 | -1.2 |
| Chicago Bulls | NY | 98.8 | 96.6 | -2.2 |
| Brooklyn Nets | CLE | 96.9 | 94.2 | -2.7 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | UTA | 99.5 | 94.8 | -4.7 |
TOTAL FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED & DvP RANKINGS – This graphic provides a quick glance at how strong or weak a defensive team plays overall, as well as against a specific position. We are looking for green numbers and trying to avoid red numbers, and we are looking to roster a player from the OPPONENT’s team in the 2nd column. Example, the IND C is, theoretically, in great spot.
| Team Defense | Opponent | TotalFPA | vs. PG | vs. SG | vs. SF | vs. PF | vs. C |
| Chicago Bulls | New York | 25 | 28 | 15 | 26 | 24 | 25 |
| Brooklyn Nets | Cleveland | 24 | 24 | 24 | 21 | 21 | 24 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | Indiana | 22 | 20 | 26 | 14 | 17 | 29 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | L.A. Clippers | 17 | 25 | 19 | 4 | 22 | 26 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Utah | 11 | 22 | 22 | 10 | 8 | 5 |
| New York Knicks | Chicago | 10 | 18 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 18 |
| Indiana Pacers | New Orleans | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 14 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | Portland | 8 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 17 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Brooklyn | 3 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Utah Jazz | Oklahoma City | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Another easy thing to watch is exhaustion control. Many coaches will rest players on the 2nd half of consecutive games. Basketball can take it’s toll and coaches need to keep their players fresh when they can. Players playing back to back games become prime targets for rest or limited minutes, obviously hurting their fantasy production and value to us. We further watch for situations like 3 games in 4 nights or the dreaded 4 games in 5 nights. We also watch traveling teams with particular interest.
BACK 2 BACKS! – Graphics containing teams we should watch for limited minutes and/or rest days. Maybe hard to see the colors, but yellow is caution, orange is a little more caution, and red is just crazy.
| Team | B2B | 2of3 | 3of4 | 4of5 |
| Atlanta | Yes | |||
| Boston | Yes | Yes | ||
| Brooklyn | ||||
| Charlotte | Yes | |||
| Chicago | Yes | |||
| Cleveland | Yes | |||
| Dallas | ||||
| Denver | Yes | |||
| Detroit | Yes | |||
| Golden State | Yes | |||
| Houston | Yes | |||
| Indiana | ||||
| L.A. Clippers | ||||
| L.A. Lakers | Yes | |||
| Memphis | Yes | |||
| Miami | Yes | |||
| Milwaukee | Yes | Yes | ||
| Minnesota | Yes | |||
| New Orleans | ||||
| New York | ||||
| Oklahoma City | ||||
| Orlando | Yes | Yes | ||
| Philadelphia | Yes | Yes | ||
| Phoenix | Yes | |||
| Portland | ||||
| Sacramento | Yes | Yes | ||
| San Antonio | Yes | |||
| Toronto | ||||
| Utah | ||||
| Washington | Yes |
If you made it this far and appreciate the tips and snippits of advice you are getting, you might want to see/learn more. For information on joining the VIP Insiders, click HERE! You will gain access to:
- Private Slack channel exclusively for VIP Insiders, where you find DFS NBA pro Keith Hall actively answering questions and offering strategy advice.
- Daily player picks on slates with 5 or more games, only excluding Sundays.
- Daily cheatsheets for both FanDuel and DraftKings to help build your lineups.
- Early access to any and all semi-private freerolls on FanDuel or DraftKings offered to the DFS Army.
Bankroll Challenge rolling results since Feb 22, 2016…..
| Date | Score | Money IN | Money Out | Profit/Loss | Adjusted Bankroll |
| Wed – 9a | 300 | 7 | 2.3 | -4.7 | 124.2 |
| Wed – 9b | 321.2 | 7 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 129.3 |
| Thrus – 10 | 301.5 | 8 | 4 | -4 | 125.3 |
| Fri – 11a | 279.1 | 12 | 2.5 | -9.5 | 115.8 |
| Fri – 11b | 336.6 | 9 | 30.2 | 21.2 | 137 |
| Fri – 18 | 162.5 | ||||
| Mon – 21 | 260.2 | 13 | 4.2 | -8.8 | 153.7 |
| Tues – 22 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 153.7 |
| Wed – 23a | 306 | 7 | 4.8 | -2.2 | 151.5 |
| Wed – 23b | 277.5 | 7 | 2.3 | -4.7 | 146.8 |
| Wed – 23c | DK – 335 | 3 | 13.4 | 10.4 | 157.2 |
Note I played 3 LUs last night. I had 2 on FD and 1 on DK. I had a couple players I liked and wanted to mix them in. I also wanted to hedge a potential bad LU with another LU…..odds of both going bust are bad. And, I wanted to try DK out again since I haven’t studied the differences in NBA construction much. Turns out I nailed the DK LU with to my knowledge was a really solid score of 335. I believe it was my first #300Club on the site this season (granted, I’ve played about 3 sessions).
However, what I want you to take note of, yet again, is the money returned on FD. These are the small leagues. Had I played a 50/50, I’m not sure I’d have gotten anything back. I didn’t use a ton of late players and I was chased down by the hammer for the most part (at one point I was up $40 on the 306 LU alone). By at least playing these small leagues, BOTH LUs returned something to avoid a complete loss on the night….the exact thing I was trying to hedge against by creating a 2nd LU. Honestly, I think the most impressive thing is how late in the season I’m still able to post positive returns on LUs. Late season is tough in any sport because the new guys have dried up and all that’s left are typically those that were having success and those that love the sport to the point they know what they are doing. Ha…..maybe I know what I’m doing…..
This Morning Briefing article, again, is not the end-all be-all when it comes to analyzing a slate. This is a first glance to identify targets we may want to dive deeper into. You may, in fact, choose a player in a poor DvP matchup due to other indicators, especially on a short slate night. Don’t overthink this stuff. The concept is to put your players in the best spots to be successful and roll them out. Keith and I will be back later to provide the VIP Insiders with more in-depth player analysis and specific picks for tonight. And, of course, the cheatsheets…… (Remembering, of course, cheatsheets come out on slates 5 games and larger.)
