Daylight Savings Time is here! Bittersweet day for me because I lose that hour of sleep. Yet, it means spring is here, too. I get excited about spring because so many things start over again. So, while I’m tired as hell this morning, I’m oddly rejuvenated at the same time. I didn’t look too hard at the slate last night, as my wife and I had a church trivia night. I saw a little here and there about some Army members playing the slate, but it looked like more of a quiet night. Sundays are interesting for me, too, so I don’t see a lot of activity again today for myself. Let’s roll into the briefing….
Fall in, soldiers!! This process isn’t intended to take long. It’s a skim, if you will. You are starting your research by quickly glancing over the day’s slate and gathering your early intel. Our goal is to give you a head start on today’s action. Keith and I will be back later with picks and analysis for the slate for our VIP Insiders, as well as provide answers to questions as much as possible in the VIP Slack channels.
Daily Fantasy Players are priced by many factors. Some of the key factors are the teams’ seasonal averages in points scored and the pace at which they play. We can assume if a team is expected to score more points than they usually do, players from that team are in a better than usual spot to succeed. We can also assume if a team is expected to play at a faster pace than usual, their players are in a better than usual spot to succeed.
VEGAS LINES – It honestly all starts here. 200 is the standard for a game in which we can expect fantasy goodness to appear. But, a lot more factors come into play, too. We don’t try to predict blowouts, but red spreads indicate the possibility. I will also add the NBA is changing. Last season, there may have been one game total over 230. This season, we have already seen more than ever. 190 totals are becoming more uncommon than common. We may revisit the magical 200 someday and call it 215. Either way, I am targeting the highest few games on any slate, regardless of the totals. I use this graphic as a guide.
| Road Team | Home Team | Favorite | Spread | Total | Tip-Off | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers (45-18) | at | Los Angeles Clippers (41-22) | CLE | -1.5 | 208.5 | 3:30 PM |
| Indiana Pacers (34-30) | at | Atlanta Hawks (36-29) | ATL | -4.5 | 198 | 6:00 PM |
| Utah Jazz (29-35) | at | Sacramento Kings (25-38) | UTA | -2.5 | 205 | 6:00 PM |
| Milwaukee Bucks (27-38) | at | Brooklyn Nets (18-46) | MIL | -2 | 206 | 8:00 PM |
| New York Knicks (27-39) | at | Los Angeles Lakers (14-51) | NY | -2 | 205.5 | 9:30 PM |
POINTED UP! – The teams with green numbers for +/- PPG (Points Per Game) are expected to outperform their seasonal scoring averages per Vegas. Teams with red are expected to under-perform.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Team Total | PPG | Team +/- |
| Utah Jazz | SAC | 103.8 | 97.6 | 6.2 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | BKN | 104 | 99.4 | 4.6 |
| New York Knicks | LAL | 103.8 | 99.3 | 4.5 |
| Brooklyn Nets | MIL | 102 | 97.8 | 4.2 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | NY | 101.8 | 97.9 | 3.8 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | LAC | 105 | 103.5 | 1.5 |
| Atlanta Hawks | IND | 101.3 | 102.1 | -0.8 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | CLE | 103.5 | 104.9 | -1.4 |
| Indiana Pacers | ATL | 96.8 | 102.2 | -5.5 |
| Sacramento Kings | UTA | 101.3 | 107 | -5.8 |
PACED UP! – Similar to being pointed up, the teams in green should be playing faster than normal while the teams in red should be playing slower. More possessions might mean more opportunity to score points.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Pace | Proj. Pace | Pace +/- |
| Utah Jazz | SAC | 93.5 | 97.9 | 4.4 |
| Atlanta Hawks | IND | 99 | 100.1 | 1.1 |
| Indiana Pacers | ATL | 99.2 | 100.1 | 0.9 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | LAC | 95.5 | 95.9 | 0.4 |
| New York Knicks | LAL | 96 | 95.9 | -0.1 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | BKN | 96.8 | 95.6 | -1.2 |
| Brooklyn Nets | MIL | 96.9 | 95.6 | -1.3 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | NY | 98 | 95.9 | -2.1 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | CLE | 98.5 | 95.9 | -2.6 |
| Sacramento Kings | UTA | 102.5 | 97.9 | -4.6 |
TOTAL FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED & DvP RANKINGS – This graphic provides a quick glance at how strong or weak a defensive team plays overall, as well as against a specific position. We are looking for green numbers and trying to avoid red numbers, and we are looking to roster a player from the OPPONENT’s team in the 2nd column. Example, the UTA SG is, theoretically, in great spot.
| Team Defense | Opponent | TotalFPA | vs. PG | vs. SG | vs. SF | vs. PF | vs. C |
| Los Angeles Lakers | New York | 30 | 30 | 28 | 27 | 23 | 28 |
| Sacramento Kings | Utah | 29 | 24 | 29 | 24 | 29 | 16 |
| Brooklyn Nets | Milwaukee | 24 | 28 | 21 | 19 | 19 | 24 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | Brooklyn | 22 | 7 | 25 | 25 | 20 | 22 |
| Atlanta Hawks | Indiana | 14 | 5 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 25 |
| New York Knicks | L.A. Lakers | 10 | 17 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 15 |
| Indiana Pacers | Atlanta | 9 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 13 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | Cleveland | 8 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 21 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | L.A. Clippers | 3 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 |
| Utah Jazz | Sacramento | 2 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Another easy thing to watch is exhaustion control. Many coaches will rest players on the 2nd half of consecutive games. Basketball can take it’s toll and coaches need to keep their players fresh when they can. Players playing back to back games become prime targets for rest or limited minutes, obviously hurting their fantasy production and value to us. We further watch for situations like 3 games in 4 nights or the dreaded 4 games in 5 nights. We also watch traveling teams with particular interest.
BACK 2 BACKS! – Graphics containing teams we should watch for limited minutes and/or rest days. Maybe hard to see the colors, but yellow is caution, orange is a little more caution, and red is just crazy.
| Team | B2B | 2of3 | 3of4 | 4of5 |
| Atlanta | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Boston | ||||
| Brooklyn | Yes | |||
| Charlotte | Yes | |||
| Chicago | ||||
| Cleveland | ||||
| Dallas | ||||
| Denver | ||||
| Detroit | Yes | |||
| Golden State | Yes | |||
| Houston | Yes | |||
| Indiana | Yes | |||
| L.A. Clippers | Yes | |||
| L.A. Lakers | ||||
| Memphis | Yes | |||
| Miami | Yes | |||
| Milwaukee | Yes | |||
| Minnesota | ||||
| New Orleans | Yes | |||
| New York | Yes | |||
| Oklahoma City | Yes | |||
| Orlando | Yes | |||
| Philadelphia | Yes | |||
| Phoenix | ||||
| Portland | Yes | |||
| Sacramento | Yes | |||
| San Antonio | ||||
| Toronto | ||||
| Utah | Yes | |||
| Washington | Yes |
If you made it this far and appreciate the tips and snippits of advice you are getting, you might want to see/learn more. For information on joining the VIP Insiders, click HERE! You will gain access to:
- Private Slack channel exclusively for VIP Insiders, where you find DFS NBA pro Keith Hall actively answering questions and offering strategy advice.
- Daily player picks on slates with 5 or more games, only excluding Sundays.
- Daily cheatsheets for both FanDuel and DraftKings to help build your lineups.
- Early access to any and all semi-private freerolls on FanDuel or DraftKings offered to the DFS Army.
Bankroll Challenge rolling results since Feb 22, 2016…..
| Date | Score | Money IN | Money Out | Profit/Loss | Adjusted Bankroll |
| Mon-29 | 332.6 | 19 | 45 | 26 | 126.6 |
| Tues-1 | 289.9 | 14 | 1.9 | -12.1 | 114.5 |
| Wed-2 | 265.7 | 11 | 10.7 | -0.3 | 114.2 |
| Wed-2b | 253.8 | 9 | 4.4 | -5.6 | 109.6 |
| Thurs-3 | 268.3 | 10 | 0 | -10 | 99.6 |
| Fri-4 | 289.1 | 20 | 7.7 | -12.3 | 91.9 |
| Mon – 7 | 379.2 | 10 | 53 | 43 | 134.9 |
| Tues – 8 | 222.7 | 6 | 0 | -6 | 128.9 |
| Wed – 9a | 300 | 7 | 2.3 | -4.7 | 124.2 |
| Wed – 9b | 321.2 | 7 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 129.3 |
| Thrus – 10 | 301.5 | 8 | 4 | -4 | 125.3 |
| Fri – 11a | 279.1 | 12 | 2.5 | -9.5 | 115.8 |
| Fri – 11b | 336.6 | 9 | 30.2 | 21.2 | 137 |
Pretty flat week for the bankroll, but positive. I tend to watch more weekly than daily with NBA so I can avoid the emotional swings from night to night. NFL is most people’s best sport, so this also mimics the week to week nature of the NFL a little better, too.
This Morning Briefing article, again, is not the end-all be-all when it comes to analyzing a slate. This is a first glance to identify targets we may want to dive deeper into. You may, in fact, choose a player in a poor DvP matchup due to other indicators, especially on a short slate night. Don’t overthink this stuff. The concept is to put your players in the best spots to be successful and roll them out. Keith and I will be back later to provide the VIP Insiders with more in-depth player analysis and specific picks for tonight. And, of course, the cheatsheets…… (Remembering, of course, cheatsheets come out on slates 5 games and larger.)
