Morning Briefing is turning into the Brunch Briefing on weekends….lol. Hopefully, it’s no big deal to you guys and it’s out early enough to get cranking on some construction with plenty of time before the big boys drop their other write-ups and articles.
I would like to say last night was a very good night for our community, the DFS Army. If you aren’t a part of it, you are seriously missing out. The VIP Insider room was going nuts with scores. We had some great takedowns. We also are in the process of reformatting our player picks article Boomer’s Ballers to include more players. With not even 2 full months left in the NBA season, there couldn’t be a more perfect time to sample what we are doing inside. Read below the back-to-back section to learn more.
This one came directly off Keith’s player picks and cheatsheet the VIP Insiders have access to. @fluffhead may be a moderator of the group, but he’s a DFS’er. He took a couple weeks off and came back with a vengeance. He read the cheatsheets and write-ups and popped in a LU that took down $2500 and 1st place in the “And One” last night with a score of 376! Well done, buddy.
The Army is winning, and winning big. Here is the first tool in your daily research to help you join the crowd….
Fall in, soldiers!! This process isn’t intended to take long. It’s a skim, if you will. You are starting your research by quickly glancing over the day’s slate and gathering your early intel. Our goal is to give you a head start on today’s action. Keith and I will be back later with picks and analysis for the slate for our VIP Insiders, as well as provide answers to questions as much as possible in the VIP Slack channels.
Daily Fantasy Players are priced by many factors. Some of the key factors are the teams’ seasonal averages in points scored and the pace at which they play. We can assume if a team is expected to score more points than they usually do, players from that team are in a better than usual spot to succeed. We can also assume if a team is expected to play at a faster pace than usual, their players are in a better than usual spot to succeed.
VEGAS LINES – It honestly all starts here. 200 is the standard for a game in which we can expect fantasy goodness to appear. But, a lot more factors come into play, too. We don’t try to predict blowouts, but red spreads indicate the possibility. I will also add the NBA is changing. Last season, there may have been one game total over 230. This season, we have already seen more than ever. 190 totals are becoming more uncommon than common. We may revisit the magical 200 someday and call it 215. Either way, I am targeting the highest few games on any slate, regardless of the totals. I use this graphic as a guide.
| Road Team | Home Team | Favorite | Spread | Total | Tip-Off | |
| Indiana Pacers (34-30) | at | Dallas Mavericks (33-32) | IND | -1 | 204.5 | 2:00 PM |
| Miami Heat (37-27) | at | Toronto Raptors (43-20) | TOR | -6 | 199 | 7:00 PM |
| Detroit Pistons (33-31) | at | Philadelphia 76ers (8-56) | DET | -10.5 | 207 | 7:00 PM |
| Houston Rockets (32-32) | at | Charlotte Hornets (35-28) | CHA | -5 | 215 | 7:00 PM |
| New Orleans Pelicans (24-39) | at | Milwaukee Bucks (27-38) | MIL | -5.5 | 210 | 7:30 PM |
| Memphis Grizzlies (38-26) | at | Atlanta Hawks (36-29) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 7:30 PM |
| Oklahoma City Thunder (44-20) | at | San Antonio Spurs (55-10) | SA | -8.5 | 210.5 | 8:30 PM |
| Washington Wizards (30-33) | at | Denver Nuggets (27-38) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 9:30 PM |
| Orlando Magic (27-36) | at | Portland Trail Blazers (34-31) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 10:30 PM |
| Phoenix Suns (17-48) | at | Golden State Warriors (57-6) | GS | -18 | 226 | 10:30 PM |
POINTED UP! – The teams with green numbers for +/- PPG (Points Per Game) are expected to outperform their seasonal scoring averages per Vegas. Teams with red are expected to under-perform.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Team Total | PPG | Team +/- |
| Denver Nuggets | WAS | TBD | 101.9 | TBD |
| Atlanta Hawks | MEM | TBD | 102.1 | TBD |
| Orlando Magic | POR | TBD | 100.8 | TBD |
| Portland Trail Blazers | ORL | TBD | 103.8 | TBD |
| Memphis Grizzlies | ATL | TBD | 99.1 | TBD |
| Washington Wizards | DEN | TBD | 102.7 | TBD |
| Milwaukee Bucks | NO | 107.8 | 99.4 | 8.3 |
| Charlotte Hornets | HOU | 110 | 102.7 | 7.3 |
| Detroit Pistons | PHI | 108.8 | 101.7 | 7.1 |
| Golden State Warriors | PHO | 122 | 115.1 | 6.9 |
| San Antonio Spurs | OKC | 109.5 | 104.7 | 4.8 |
| Phoenix Suns | GS | 104 | 100.5 | 3.5 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | DET | 98.3 | 96.7 | 1.6 |
| Indiana Pacers | DAL | 102.8 | 102.2 | 0.5 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | SA | 101 | 110.1 | -9.1 |
| Miami Heat | TOR | 96.5 | 98.1 | -1.6 |
| Houston Rockets | CHA | 105 | 105.8 | -0.8 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | MIL | 102.3 | 102.7 | -0.5 |
| Dallas Mavericks | IND | 101.8 | 102.3 | -0.5 |
| Toronto Raptors | MIA | 102.5 | 102.7 | -0.2 |
PACED UP! – Similar to being pointed up, the teams in green should be playing faster than normal while the teams in red should be playing slower. More possessions might mean more opportunity to score points.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Pace | Proj. Pace | Pace +/- |
| Phoenix Suns | GS | 100.3 | 104.5 | 4.2 |
| Denver Nuggets | WAS | 98.1 | 100.3 | 2.2 |
| Golden State Warriors | PHO | 102.3 | 104.5 | 2.2 |
| Charlotte Hornets | HOU | 97.8 | 99.8 | 2 |
| Detroit Pistons | PHI | 97.5 | 99.5 | 2 |
| San Antonio Spurs | OKC | 96.4 | 97.8 | 1.4 |
| Dallas Mavericks | IND | 96.5 | 97.6 | 1.1 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | ATL | 95.5 | 96.4 | 0.9 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | NO | 96.8 | 97.7 | 0.9 |
| Washington Wizards | DEN | 100.3 | 100.3 | 0 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | ORL | 97.7 | 97.4 | -0.3 |
| Houston Rockets | CHA | 100.1 | 99.8 | -0.3 |
| Orlando Magic | POR | 97.8 | 97.4 | -0.4 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | DET | 100.1 | 99.5 | -0.6 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | MIL | 99 | 97.7 | -1.3 |
| Indiana Pacers | DAL | 99.2 | 97.6 | -1.6 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | SA | 99.5 | 97.8 | -1.7 |
| Toronto Raptors | MIA | 95.4 | 92.9 | -2.5 |
| Atlanta Hawks | MEM | 99 | 96.4 | -2.6 |
| Miami Heat | TOR | 95.6 | 92.9 | -2.7 |
TOTAL FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED & DvP RANKINGS – This graphic provides a quick glance at how strong or weak a defensive team plays overall, as well as against a specific position. We are looking for green numbers and trying to avoid red numbers, and we are looking to roster a player from the OPPONENT’s team in the 2nd column. Example, the CHA PF is, theoretically, in great spot.
| Team Defense | Opponent | TotalFPA | vs. PG | vs. SG | vs. SF | vs. PF | vs. C |
| Philadelphia 76ers | Detroit | 28 | 25 | 18 | 28 | 28 | 30 |
| Houston Rockets | Charlotte | 27 | 14 | 23 | 30 | 30 | 14 |
| Phoenix Suns | Golden State | 26 | 29 | 30 | 29 | 14 | 9 |
| Denver Nuggets | Washington | 23 | 20 | 27 | 14 | 25 | 17 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | New Orleans | 22 | 7 | 25 | 25 | 20 | 22 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | Milwaukee | 21 | 15 | 26 | 16 | 16 | 29 |
| Orlando Magic | Portland | 20 | 22 | 5 | 17 | 21 | 11 |
| Dallas Mavericks | Indiana | 19 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 27 | 19 |
| Charlotte Hornets | Houston | 18 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 22 | 12 |
| Golden State Warriors | Phoenix | 16 | 26 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 20 |
| Washington Wizards | Denver | 15 | 16 | 20 | 26 | 6 | 10 |
| Atlanta Hawks | Memphis | 14 | 5 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 25 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | Orlando | 13 | 18 | 19 | 5 | 18 | 23 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | San Antonio | 11 | 23 | 24 | 9 | 9 | 5 |
| Indiana Pacers | Dallas | 9 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 13 |
| Detroit Pistons | Philadelphia | 7 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 13 | 8 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | Atlanta | 6 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 3 |
| Toronto Raptors | Miami | 5 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| Miami Heat | Toronto | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 5 | 6 |
| San Antonio Spurs | Oklahoma City | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Ok, I’m not really telling you to fade all of OKC with this graphic. I am, however, telling you their ceilings’ might be capped somewhat. I’m certainly more focused on the teams in green spots over the teams in red.
Another easy thing to watch is exhaustion control. Many coaches will rest players on the 2nd half of consecutive games. Basketball can take it’s toll and coaches need to keep their players fresh when they can. Players playing back to back games become prime targets for rest or limited minutes, obviously hurting their fantasy production and value to us. We further watch for situations like 3 games in 4 nights or the dreaded 4 games in 5 nights. We also watch traveling teams with particular interest.
BACK 2 BACKS! – Graphics containing teams we should watch for limited minutes and/or rest days. Maybe hard to see the colors, but yellow is caution, orange is a little more caution, and red is just crazy.
| Team | B2B | 2of3 | 3of4 | 4of5 |
| Atlanta | Yes | |||
| Boston | ||||
| Brooklyn | ||||
| Charlotte | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Chicago | Yes | |||
| Cleveland | ||||
| Dallas | ||||
| Denver | Yes | |||
| Detroit | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Golden State | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Houston | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Indiana | ||||
| L.A. Clippers | ||||
| L.A. Lakers | ||||
| Memphis | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Miami | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Milwaukee | ||||
| Minnesota | ||||
| New Orleans | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| New York | ||||
| Oklahoma City | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Orlando | Yes | |||
| Philadelphia | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Phoenix | Yes | Yes | ||
| Portland | Yes | |||
| Sacramento | ||||
| San Antonio | Yes | |||
| Toronto | Yes | |||
| Utah | ||||
| Washington | Yes |
Word of caution……………lots of yellow and orange. Personally, it’s harder for me to play on weekends with staggered starting times and home/family responsibilities. This graphic might honestly have crushed any desire I had to play this slate. And, I really wanted to play it because it’s been a good week and I want to keep the train rolling. #FoodForThought – Discipline builds bankrolls better than volume. Lack of discipline also destroys bankrolls faster than poor play.
If you made it this far and appreciate the tips and snippits of advice you are getting, you might want to see/learn more. For information on joining the VIP Insiders, click HERE! You will gain access to:
- Private Slack channel exclusively for VIP Insiders, where you find DFS NBA pro Keith Hall actively answering questions and offering strategy advice.
- Daily player picks on slates with 5 or more games, only excluding Sundays.
- Daily cheatsheets for both FanDuel and DraftKings to help build your lineups.
- Early access to any and all semi-private freerolls on FanDuel or DraftKings offered to the DFS Army.
Bankroll Challenge rolling results since Feb 22, 2016…..
| Date | Score | Money IN | Money Out | Profit/Loss | Adjusted Bankroll |
| Mon-29 | 332.6 | 19 | 45 | 26 | 126.6 |
| Tues-1 | 289.9 | 14 | 1.9 | -12.1 | 114.5 |
| Wed-2 | 265.7 | 11 | 10.7 | -0.3 | 114.2 |
| Wed-2b | 253.8 | 9 | 4.4 | -5.6 | 109.6 |
| Thurs-3 | 268.3 | 10 | 0 | -10 | 99.6 |
| Fri-4 | 289.1 | 20 | 7.7 | -12.3 | 91.9 |
| Mon – 7 | 379.2 | 10 | 53 | 43 | 134.9 |
| Tues – 8 | 222.7 | 6 | 0 | -6 | 128.9 |
| Wed – 9a | 300 | 7 | 2.3 | -4.7 | 124.2 |
| Wed – 9b | 321.2 | 7 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 129.3 |
| Thrus – 10 | 301.5 | 8 | 4 | -4 | 125.3 |
| Fri – 11a | 279.1 | 12 | 2.5 | -9.5 | 115.8 |
| Fri – 11b | 336.6 | 9 | 30.2 | 21.2 | 137 |
I did something a bit differently last night in that I ran 2 LUs on purpose with very different players to see how it affected things. I felt one might lose and one might win. I didn’t much like my confidence in a single LU, so I felt this hedged things a little. Sure, I wish I’d run just the 11b LU, but I’m glad I didn’t run just the 11a. I also didn’t pay as much attention to evenly splitting the allocations as I should have. But, I’m not too worried about it. A win is a win is a win.
This Morning Briefing article, again, is not the end-all be-all when it comes to analyzing a slate. This is a first glance to identify targets we may want to dive deeper into. You may, in fact, choose a player in a poor DvP matchup due to other indicators, especially on a short slate night. Don’t overthink this stuff. The concept is to put your players in the best spots to be successful and roll them out. Keith and I will be back later to provide the VIP Insiders with more in-depth player analysis and specific picks for tonight. And, of course, the cheatsheets…… (Remembering, of course, cheatsheets come out on slates 5 games and larger.)
