We apologize for any delays in getting this morning’s article up and running. There were some technical difficulties with the website overnight that really just serve me right for being ahead of schedule. I already have my NBA LU set, too, so I think we know how that’s going to turn out. I’m guessing I need to head back to the drawing board and blow that LU up and start over. Being that today is Free Content Monday (where we share our VIP Insider content for all to see), it might just be that kind of day where you do something, start over, do something, start over.
There were a lot of nice scores yesterday, and that money line looked really high. I have to admit the scores on the daily fantasy sites have gotten really tight since the All Star Break. You are going to hear a lot of theories on things going forward (even one by me down at the bottom of this article). But, no matter how you slice it, to cash in a 5050 you still need only beat 50% of the field. To win a H2H contest, you only need beat one dude. Those numbers never change. Try and keep a level head as the industry around you bitches and moans about how things got tougher and the fish are gone and this and that and so on. Anyway….
Fall in, soldiers!! This process isn’t intended to take long. It’s a skim, if you will. You are starting your research by quickly glancing over the day’s slate and gathering your early intel. Our goal is to give you a head start on today’s action. Keith and I will be back later with picks and analysis for the slate for our VIP Insiders, as well as provide answers to questions as much as possible in the VIP Slack channels.
Daily Fantasy Players are priced by many factors. Some of the key factors are the teams’ seasonal averages in points scored and the pace at which they play. We can assume if a team is expected to score more points than they usually do, players from that team are in a better than usual spot to succeed. We can also assume if a team is expected to play at a faster pace than usual, their players are in a better than usual spot to succeed.
VEGAS LINES – It honestly all starts here. 200 is the standard for a game in which we can expect fantasy goodness to appear. But, a lot more factors come into play, too. We don’t try to predict blowouts, but red spreads indicate the possibility. I will also add the NBA is changing. Last season, there may have been one game total over 230. This season, we have already seen more than ever. 190 totals are becoming more uncommon than common. We may revisit the magical 200 someday and call it 215. Either way, I am targeting the highest few games on any slate, regardless of the totals. I use this graphic as a guide.
| Road Team | Home Team | Favorite | Spread | Total | Tip-Off | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves (20-43) | at | Charlotte Hornets (33-28) | CHA | -9.5 | 211.5 | 7:00 PM |
| Memphis Grizzlies (37-25) | at | Cleveland Cavaliers (44-17) | CLE | -10 | 203.5 | 7:00 PM |
| San Antonio Spurs (53-9) | at | Indiana Pacers (33-30) | SA | -6.5 | 196.5 | 7:00 PM |
| Milwaukee Bucks (26-37) | at | Chicago Bulls (31-30) | CHI | -6 | 208 | 8:00 PM |
| Sacramento Kings (25-36) | at | New Orleans Pelicans (23-38) | NO | -1.5 | 220 | 8:00 PM |
| Los Angeles Clippers (40-21) | at | Dallas Mavericks (33-30) | LAC | -4 | 210 | 8:30 PM |
| Orlando Magic (27-34) | at | Golden State Warriors (55-6) | GS | -14.5 | 222.5 | 10:30 PM |
We get a few nice games to play with tonight. GSW holding the late night hammer is always intriguing.
POINTED UP! – The teams with green numbers for +/- PPG (Points Per Game) are expected to outperform their seasonal scoring averages per Vegas. Teams with red are expected to under-perform.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Team Total | PPG | Team +/- |
| New Orleans Pelicans | SAC | 110.8 | 102.3 | 8.5 |
| Charlotte Hornets | MIN | 110.5 | 102.3 | 8.2 |
| Chicago Bulls | MIL | 107 | 101.6 | 5.4 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | MEM | 106.8 | 103.2 | 3.6 |
| Golden State Warriors | ORL | 118.5 | 115.1 | 3.4 |
| Orlando Magic | GS | 104 | 100.6 | 3.4 |
| Sacramento Kings | NO | 109.3 | 106.8 | 2.5 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | DAL | 107 | 104.8 | 2.2 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | CHI | 101 | 99.3 | 1.7 |
| Dallas Mavericks | LAC | 103 | 102.6 | 0.4 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | CHA | 101 | 101.5 | -0.5 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | CLE | 96.8 | 99.1 | -2.3 |
| San Antonio Spurs | IND | 101.5 | 104.7 | -3.2 |
| Indiana Pacers | SA | 95 | 102.2 | -7.2 |
PACED UP! – Similar to being pointed up, the teams in green should be playing faster than normal while the teams in red should be playing slower. More possessions might mean more opportunity to score points.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Pace | Proj. Pace | Pace +/- |
| New Orleans Pelicans | SAC | 98.8 | 103 | 4.2 |
| Orlando Magic | GS | 97.6 | 101.7 | 4.1 |
| San Antonio Spurs | IND | 96.4 | 97.6 | 1.2 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | CHI | 96.8 | 97.6 | 0.8 |
| Sacramento Kings | NO | 102.3 | 103 | 0.7 |
| Dallas Mavericks | LAC | 96.4 | 96.7 | 0.3 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | CHA | 97.3 | 96.9 | -0.4 |
| Golden State Warriors | ORL | 102.2 | 101.7 | -0.5 |
| Charlotte Hornets | MIN | 97.7 | 96.9 | -0.8 |
| Chicago Bulls | MIL | 98.9 | 97.6 | -1.3 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | DAL | 98.4 | 96.7 | -1.7 |
| Indiana Pacers | SA | 99.3 | 97.6 | -1.7 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | MEM | 95.3 | 92.5 | -2.8 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | CLE | 95.3 | 92.5 | -2.8 |
TOTAL FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED & DvP RANKINGS – This graphic provides a quick glance at how strong or weak a defensive team plays overall, as well as against a specific position. We are looking for green numbers and trying to avoid red numbers, and we are looking to roster a player from the OPPONENT’s team in the 2nd column. Example, the NOP PF (Yes, it’s Anthony Davis) is, theoretically, in great spot.
| Team Defense | Opponent | TotalFPA | vs. PG | vs. SG | vs. SF | vs. PF | vs. C |
| Sacramento Kings | New Orleans | 29 | 25 | 29 | 23 | 29 | 19 |
| Chicago Bulls | Milwaukee | 26 | 28 | 15 | 22 | 24 | 27 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | Chicago | 22 | 7 | 26 | 25 | 21 | 16 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | Sacramento | 21 | 15 | 25 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Orlando Magic | Golden State | 20 | 19 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 11 |
| Charlotte Hornets | Minnesota | 19 | 12 | 13 | 24 | 22 | 10 |
| Golden State Warriors | Orlando | 17 | 26 | 9 | 16 | 15 | 21 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Charlotte | 16 | 21 | 23 | 21 | 9 | 7 |
| Dallas Mavericks | L.A. Clippers | 15 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 26 | 14 |
| Indiana Pacers | San Antonio | 9 | 10 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 12 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | Dallas | 8 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 22 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | Cleveland | 6 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 2 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Memphis | 3 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 1 |
| San Antonio Spurs | Indiana | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
Another easy thing to watch is exhaustion control. Many coaches will rest players on the 2nd half of consecutive games. Basketball can take it’s toll and coaches need to keep their players fresh when they can. Players playing back to back games become prime targets for rest or limited minutes, obviously hurting their fantasy production and value to us. We further watch for situations like 3 games in 4 nights or the dreaded 4 games in 5 nights. We also watch traveling teams with particular interest.
BACK 2 BACKS! – Graphics containing teams we should watch for limited minutes and/or rest days. Maybe hard to see the colors, but yellow is caution, orange is a little more caution, and red is just crazy.
| Team | B2B | 2of3 | 3of4 | 4of5 |
| Atlanta | ||||
| Boston | ||||
| Brooklyn | ||||
| Charlotte | ||||
| Chicago | Yes | |||
| Cleveland | Yes | Yes | ||
| Dallas | Yes | |||
| Denver | ||||
| Detroit | Yes | |||
| Golden State | Yes | |||
| Houston | Yes | |||
| Indiana | Yes | Yes | ||
| L.A. Clippers | Yes | |||
| L.A. Lakers | ||||
| Memphis | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Miami | ||||
| Milwaukee | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Minnesota | Yes | Yes | ||
| New Orleans | Yes | |||
| New York | ||||
| Oklahoma City | ||||
| Orlando | ||||
| Philadelphia | ||||
| Phoenix | ||||
| Portland | ||||
| Sacramento | Yes | |||
| San Antonio | Yes | |||
| Toronto | ||||
| Utah | ||||
| Washington |
If you made it this far and appreciate the tips and snippits of advice you are getting, you might want to see/learn more. For information on joining the VIP Insiders, click HERE! You will gain access to:
- Private Slack channel exclusively for VIP Insiders, where you find DFS NBA pro Keith Hall actively answering questions and offering strategy advice.
- Daily player picks on slates with 5 or more games, only excluding Sundays.
- Daily cheatsheets for both FanDuel and DraftKings to help build your lineups.
- Early access to any and all semi-private freerolls on FanDuel or DraftKings offered to the DFS Army.
Bankroll Challenge results for week of Feb 22, 2016…..
| Date | Score | Money IN | Money Out | Profit/Loss | Adjusted Bankroll |
| Mon – 22 | 316.6 | 5 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 66.3 |
| Tues – 23 | 278.8 | 14 | 17.3 | 3.3 | 69.6 |
| Wed – 24 | 286.3 | 16 | 14 | -2 | 67.6 |
| Thurs – 25 | 328 | 12 | 37.1 | 25.1 | 92.7 |
| Fri – 26 | 298.6 | 10 | 17.9 | 7.9 | 100.6 |
| Mon-29 | 332.6 | 19 | 45 | 26 | 126.6 |
| Tues-1 | 289.9 | 14 | 1.9 | -12.1 | 114.5 |
| Wed-2 | 265.7 | 11 | 10.7 | -0.3 | 114.2 |
| Wed-2b | 253.8 | 9 | 4.4 | -5.6 | 109.6 |
| Thurs-3 | 268.3 | 10 | 0 | -10 | 99.6 |
| Fri-4 | 289.1 | 20 | 7.7 | -12.3 | 91.9 |
This may or may not be exact at this point. I lost data in that website glitch last night. It’s close, though. I will be rolling my last 10 sessions or so from here on out, so you will be seeing the oldest data disappear as I play a new slate.
Earlier I mentioned I had an opinion about the state of DFS and the NBA. I saw Twitter catch fire last night and this weekend regarding how high the scores have become just to cash an event. We have experienced people posting the highest scores of their careers on FanDuel and still finding themselves unable to cash in GPPs and show profit in cash games. It’s leading to a lot of bitching. My thoughts are simple……no math to back it up……just logic.
Do you suppose it makes sense that people try a new sport and put in a small deposit, then redeposit a couple times before figuring out the game is tougher than they thought? Do you suppose they quit and go away? I guarantee you a lot do. Do you suppose people that discover they like the game start seeking advice in order to get better? Do you suppose it’s hard to find quality info out there for free and increase your skills? Do you suppose this education increases the newest player’s chances of winning a 5050 game fairly quickly? I guarantee you it does.
I noticed the exact same thing last year during the baseball season. The money lines started climbing after the All Star Break there, too. I dismissed a lot of it as just gearing up towards football. While that may be a factor as well, people were getting smarter or just quitting, too. I suppose it happens in every DFS sport. I saw it happen in poker. I saw it happen with online sales like eBay and Amazon. There is so much information out there that you don’t need to attend college to get good at this stuff in a relatively short period of time. You still have your mooks. But, in general, the competition is only getting tougher with each passing day. Each article written is making your competition smarter. You have to stay ahead of the curve.
Instead of whining about the state of a growing game, I’d rather you keep your head on your shoulders and decide how much you like the game. I’d also encourage you to evaluate why you are playing. We are all competitive. We all want to win. But, for the sake of MY opinion, this is hella cheaper than going to game after game, and I’m having a lot more fun watching the sports with my increased knowledge. And, that aspect of DFS brings my life value regardless of winning and losing money……..provided I’m not overextending my checking account.
This Morning Briefing article, again, is not the end-all be-all when it comes to analyzing a slate. This is a first glance to identify targets we may want to dive deeper into. You may, in fact, choose a player in a poor DvP matchup due to other indicators, especially on a short slate night. Don’t overthink this stuff. The concept is to put your players in the best spots to be successful and roll them out. Keith and I will be back later to provide the VIP Insiders with more in-depth player analysis and specific picks for tonight. And, of course, the cheatsheets…… (Remembering, of course, cheatsheets come out on slates 5 games and larger.)
