So, if you’ve followed us for the past week, you may have realized we are making a push for posting our successes publicly. I will be looking for “threshold scores” to retweet across Twitter to recognize us. I could use everyone’s help in the same area. #300Club and #DFSArmy works really well for NBA. We will be looking for a nice number in MLB and NFL. I’d like to see it blend into NHL, PGA, MMA, eSports, etc and really take off. You guys are in on this now. The one way some of us older dogs got involved in DFS Army was to promote community. This is a community effort, too. We need everyone’s help. In fact, the community is driven by itself…..by everyone helping everyone learn and grow. We saw it take hold in NFL, and believe it can do the same to wind down NBA.
Strategy Tip: Another thing to point out is as the season winds down, scores typically get harder to hit in order to cash. We, luckily, are really hitting our stride right now inside the Army. I’m seeing players that were struggling early on really start to figure things out. I think that’s great. But, I also realize that other players that didn’t figure it out are dropping out of the player pool. This serves to make the competition tougher and tougher as the only ones left are those that were having success.
If you are hitting your stride, by all means, keep playing. If not, however, it’s time to re-evaluate how much you are playing. I’ve hit my stride just fine and tripled my bankroll as you’ve seen. But, I’m also going to be re-evaluating how many slates I play and how much money I put into play on the ones I do play. If I see short slates like yesterday where not much is available and pricing is tight……I’m out. I’m not putting money in play just to get my fix. The number one thing you can do for your bankroll is exercise discipline. When the stars aren’t lining up…..get out. Look for spots where the stars DO line up and maybe put a little extra in. For example, I play about $15 per slate right now. Yeh…I know….real high roller, right? But, that doesn’t mean my point isn’t valid as hell. I play about $15 per slate and haven’t played the last three. I will likely play tonight because in the following graphics I see some places I can take advantage of both situations and pricing. If I really like how my LUs come together, I may go to $20 or more. But, if things start breaking late again (like news of players resting) and I can’t adjust in time to make the correct pivots, I won’t force the action. I won’t hesitate to yank all my contests off the table and start looking for tomorrow.
MLB is coming, and we plan to provide plenty of content for the season. You will notice that some of us will be hitting things a little harder in the beginning…..and we will be vocal about doing so. This is the reverse of what I just explained to you above. A new season is as soft as it’s going to get. I’m planning on taking full advantage. To do so, it’s just as important for me to know when and where to press up my action as it is for me to preserve my NBA bankroll as the season winds down and is at it’s toughest point. I hope this makes sense. If you have questions regarding the concept, please don’t hesitate to ask in our Slack Channels. Today is a “free content Monday” so our NBA VIP content, and most of our conceptual discussions, will be held out in the free #nba-talk channel. Please join us as we build our rosters for the day. In the meantime……
Fall in, soldiers!! This process isn’t intended to take long. It’s a skim, if you will. You are starting your research by quickly glancing over the day’s slate and gathering your early intel. Our goal is to give you a head start on today’s action. Keith and I will be back later with picks and analysis for the slate for our VIP Insiders, as well as provide answers to questions as much as possible in the VIP Slack channels.
Daily Fantasy Players are priced by many factors. Some of the key factors are the teams’ seasonal averages in points scored and the pace at which they play. We can assume if a team is expected to score more points than they usually do, players from that team are in a better than usual spot to succeed. We can also assume if a team is expected to play at a faster pace than usual, their players are in a better than usual spot to succeed.
VEGAS LINES – It honestly all starts here. 200 is the standard for a game in which we can expect fantasy goodness to appear. But, a lot more factors come into play, too. We don’t try to predict blowouts, but red spreads indicate the possibility. I will also add the NBA is changing. Last season, there may have been one game total over 230. This season, we have already seen more than ever. 190 totals are becoming more uncommon than common. We may revisit the magical 200 someday and call it 215. Either way, I am targeting the highest few games on any slate, regardless of the totals. I use this graphic as a guide.
| Road Team | Home Team | Favorite | Spread | Total | Tip-Off | |
| Denver Nuggets (29-41) | at | Cleveland Cavaliers (49-20) | CLE | -11 | 214 | 7:00 PM |
| Philadelphia 76ers (9-61) | at | Indiana Pacers (36-33) | IND | -15.5 | 208.5 | 7:00 PM |
| San Antonio Spurs (59-10) | at | Charlotte Hornets (39-30) | SA | -6.5 | 199.5 | 7:00 PM |
| Orlando Magic (29-40) | at | Boston Celtics (40-30) | BOS | -8 | 214.5 | 7:30 PM |
| Milwaukee Bucks (30-40) | at | Detroit Pistons (36-34) | DET | -6.5 | 205.5 | 7:30 PM |
| Washington Wizards (34-35) | at | Atlanta Hawks (41-29) | ATL | -6.5 | 206 | 8:00 PM |
| Golden State Warriors (62-7) | at | Minnesota Timberwolves (22-47) | GS | -11.5 | 231.5 | 8:00 PM |
| Sacramento Kings (27-42) | at | Chicago Bulls (35-33) | CHI | -6 | 219 | 8:00 PM |
| Memphis Grizzlies (40-30) | at | Phoenix Suns (19-50) | MEM | -1.5 | 204.5 | 10:00 PM |
POINTED UP! – The teams with green numbers for +/- PPG (Points Per Game) are expected to outperform their seasonal scoring averages per Vegas. Teams with red are expected to under-perform.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Team Total | PPG | Team +/- |
| Chicago Bulls | SAC | 112.5 | 101.6 | 10.9 |
| Indiana Pacers | PHI | 112 | 101.9 | 10.1 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | DEN | 112.5 | 103.6 | 8.9 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | GS | 110 | 101.7 | 8.3 |
| Golden State Warriors | MIN | 121.5 | 115.4 | 6.1 |
| Boston Celtics | ORL | 111.3 | 106 | 5.3 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | PHO | 103 | 99.1 | 3.9 |
| Atlanta Hawks | WAS | 106.3 | 102.6 | 3.7 |
| Detroit Pistons | MIL | 106 | 102.3 | 3.7 |
| Orlando Magic | BOS | 103.3 | 100.9 | 2.3 |
| Phoenix Suns | MEM | 101.5 | 100.2 | 1.3 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | DET | 99.5 | 99.2 | 0.3 |
| Sacramento Kings | CHI | 106.5 | 106.5 | 0 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | IND | 96.5 | 97.2 | -0.7 |
| Denver Nuggets | CLE | 101.5 | 102.4 | -0.9 |
| San Antonio Spurs | CHA | 103 | 104.6 | -1.6 |
| Washington Wizards | ATL | 99.8 | 103 | -3.3 |
| Charlotte Hornets | SA | 96.5 | 103.1 | -6.6 |
PACED UP! – Similar to being pointed up, the teams in green should be playing faster than normal while the teams in red should be playing slower. More possessions might mean more opportunity to score points.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Pace | Proj. Pace | Pace +/- |
| Chicago Bulls | SAC | 98.7 | 102.9 | 4.2 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | GS | 97.5 | 101.4 | 3.9 |
| Orlando Magic | BOS | 97.9 | 101 | 3.1 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | PHO | 95.7 | 98 | 2.3 |
| Atlanta Hawks | WAS | 99.1 | 101.4 | 2.3 |
| Indiana Pacers | PHI | 99.1 | 101.3 | 2.2 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | IND | 100.3 | 101.3 | 1 |
| Washington Wizards | ATL | 100.4 | 101.4 | 1 |
| Sacramento Kings | CHI | 102.3 | 102.9 | 0.6 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | DEN | 95.3 | 95.5 | 0.2 |
| Boston Celtics | ORL | 101.2 | 101 | -0.2 |
| San Antonio Spurs | CHA | 96.2 | 96 | -0.2 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | DET | 96.7 | 96.3 | -0.4 |
| Golden State Warriors | MIN | 102 | 101.4 | -0.6 |
| Detroit Pistons | MIL | 97.7 | 96.3 | -1.4 |
| Charlotte Hornets | SA | 97.9 | 96 | -1.9 |
| Phoenix Suns | MEM | 100.4 | 98 | -2.4 |
| Denver Nuggets | CLE | 98.3 | 95.5 | -2.8 |
TOTAL FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED & DvP RANKINGS – This graphic provides a quick glance at how strong or weak a defensive team plays overall, as well as against a specific position. We are looking for green numbers and trying to avoid red numbers, and we are looking to roster a player from the OPPONENT’s team in the 2nd column. Example, the IND C is, theoretically, in great spot.
| Team Defense | Opponent | TotalFPA | vs. PG | vs. SG | vs. SF | vs. PF | vs. C |
| Philadelphia 76ers | Indiana | 29 | 27 | 17 | 28 | 28 | 30 |
| Sacramento Kings | Chicago | 28 | 25 | 29 | 23 | 30 | 15 |
| Phoenix Suns | Memphis | 26 | 29 | 30 | 27 | 15 | 12 |
| Chicago Bulls | Sacramento | 25 | 28 | 15 | 25 | 24 | 24 |
| Denver Nuggets | Cleveland | 23 | 19 | 27 | 16 | 25 | 14 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | Detroit | 21 | 7 | 25 | 24 | 18 | 22 |
| Orlando Magic | Boston | 20 | 20 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 13 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Golden State | 18 | 18 | 22 | 19 | 9 | 7 |
| Charlotte Hornets | San Antonio | 17 | 12 | 14 | 20 | 23 | 10 |
| Golden State Warriors | Minnesota | 16 | 26 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 21 |
| Washington Wizards | Atlanta | 14 | 15 | 19 | 26 | 7 | 8 |
| Atlanta Hawks | Washington | 13 | 5 | 20 | 12 | 13 | 23 |
| Boston Celtics | Orlando | 12 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 26 | 27 |
| Indiana Pacers | Philadelphia | 9 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 16 |
| Detroit Pistons | Milwaukee | 7 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 9 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | Phoenix | 6 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 5 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Denver | 3 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| San Antonio Spurs | Charlotte | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
Another easy thing to watch is exhaustion control. Many coaches will rest players on the 2nd half of consecutive games. Basketball can take it’s toll and coaches need to keep their players fresh when they can. Players playing back to back games become prime targets for rest or limited minutes, obviously hurting their fantasy production and value to us. We further watch for situations like 3 games in 4 nights or the dreaded 4 games in 5 nights. We also watch traveling teams with particular interest.
BACK 2 BACKS! – Graphics containing teams we should watch for limited minutes and/or rest days. Maybe hard to see the colors, but yellow is caution, orange is a little more caution, and red is just crazy.
| Team | B2B | 2of3 | 3of4 | 4of5 |
| Atlanta | Yes | |||
| Boston | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Brooklyn | ||||
| Charlotte | Yes | |||
| Chicago | Yes | |||
| Cleveland | Yes | Yes | ||
| Dallas | ||||
| Denver | Yes | |||
| Detroit | Yes | Yes | ||
| Golden State | Yes | Yes | ||
| Houston | ||||
| Indiana | Yes | |||
| L.A. Clippers | Yes | |||
| L.A. Lakers | ||||
| Memphis | Yes | |||
| Miami | ||||
| Milwaukee | Yes | |||
| Minnesota | ||||
| New Orleans | ||||
| New York | Yes | |||
| Oklahoma City | ||||
| Orlando | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Philadelphia | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Phoenix | ||||
| Portland | ||||
| Sacramento | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| San Antonio | Yes | |||
| Toronto | ||||
| Utah | Yes | |||
| Washington | Yes |
You know what I’m going to say in this space. PHI is in a terrible spot tonight. They should be tired. 4of5 AND B2B nights? That’s going to lead to goofy rotations and probably being half a step slower, especially late in the game. I would not roster them, and I would aggressively target against them since they have a statistically poor defense already. As if it wasn’t enough that IND is significantly pointed up by Vegas, slightly paced up, and really in a great DvP spot, we get exhaustion on top of it. No doubt some IND players will be in my rosters. This is how you use these graphics to your advantage. One isolated factor is nice, but when all the boxes are checked, we have a pretty safe situation to get aggressive.
If you made it this far and appreciate the tips and snippits of advice you are getting, you might want to see/learn more. For information on joining the VIP Insiders, click HERE! You will gain access to:
- Private Slack channel exclusively for VIP Insiders, where you find DFS NBA pro Keith Hall actively answering questions and offering strategy advice.
- Daily player picks on slates with 5 or more games, only excluding Sundays.
- Daily cheatsheets for both FanDuel and DraftKings to help build your lineups.
- Early access to any and all semi-private freerolls on FanDuel or DraftKings offered to the DFS Army.
Bankroll Challenge rolling results since Feb 22, 2016…..
| Date | Score | Money IN | Money Out | Profit/Loss | Adjusted Bankroll |
| Mon – 7 | 379.2 | 10 | 53 | 43 | 134.9 |
| Tues – 8 | 222.7 | 6 | 0 | -6 | 128.9 |
| Wed – 9a | 300 | 7 | 2.3 | -4.7 | 124.2 |
| Wed – 9b | 321.2 | 7 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 129.3 |
| Thrus – 10 | 301.5 | 8 | 4 | -4 | 125.3 |
| Fri – 11a | 279.1 | 12 | 2.5 | -9.5 | 115.8 |
| Fri – 11b | 336.6 | 9 | 30.2 | 21.2 | 137 |
| Fri – 18 | 162.5 |
I apologize for those of you that actually follow along with this tracker. I have lost data again. Our website has switched hosting and had other temporary issues on the back-end which is demanding we create restore points as we work through the issues. This causes permanent loss of data that wasn’t originally backed up in other places. I’m personally horrible about backing things up, so this explains some of the gaps in tracking you will see from time to time. It also explains the missing articles should you go back through the site to look and learn from the past. Again, I apologize, but we are working on things constantly and will get this stuff figured out moving forward.
The point is: My bankroll (for this challenge) was sitting really close to the $162.50 mark I put in for Friday here. I will be using this number going forward. Thank you for understanding.
This Morning Briefing article, again, is not the end-all be-all when it comes to analyzing a slate. This is a first glance to identify targets we may want to dive deeper into. You may, in fact, choose a player in a poor DvP matchup due to other indicators, especially on a short slate night. Don’t overthink this stuff. The concept is to put your players in the best spots to be successful and roll them out. Keith and I will be back later to provide the VIP Insiders with more in-depth player analysis and specific picks for tonight. And, of course, the cheatsheets…… (Remembering, of course, cheatsheets come out on slates 5 games and larger.)
