YOU MUST READ BELOW IN THE BANKROLL REVIEW TODAY! Just do it….scroll down and read it.
Daily fantasy sports, especially NBA, has proven to be a roller coaster ride. If you haven’t read the article on “variance,” you need to do so. It can be found here. If you think like I do, you will understand variance comes in many forms. Line ’em up and take your shot. But, ultimately, the contests you fall in and the LUs you build determine your fate in the short run. In the long run, however, a steady hand wins out……consistency……perseverance. These are primary fundamentals inside the DFSArmy.
Full 10-game slate tonight with PHX @ ORL kicking things off with two other games, and the hammer dropping out west with ATL visiting those fun-to-roster LA Lakers.
Fall in, soldiers!! This process isn’t intended to take long. It’s a skim, if you will. You are starting your research by quickly glancing over the day’s slate and gathering your early intel. Our goal is to give you a head start on today’s action. Keith and I will be back later with picks and analysis for the slate for our VIP Insiders, as well as provide answers to questions as much as possible in the VIP Slack channels.
Daily Fantasy Players are priced by many factors. Some of the key factors are the teams’ seasonal averages in points scored and the pace at which they play. We can assume if a team is expected to score more points than they usually do, players from that team are in a better than usual spot to succeed. We can also assume if a team is expected to play at a faster pace than usual, their players are in a better than usual spot to succeed.
VEGAS LINES – It honestly all starts here. 200 is the standard for a game in which we can expect fantasy goodness to appear. But, a lot more factors come into play, too. We don’t try to predict blowouts, but red spreads indicate the possibility. I will also add the NBA is changing. Last season, there may have been one game total over 230. This season, we have already seen 4 or more. 190 totals are becoming more uncommon than common. We may revisit the magical 200 someday and call it 215. Either way, I am targeting the highest few games on any slate, regardless of the totals. I use this graphic as a guide.
| Road Team | Home Team | Favorite | Spread | Total | Tip-Off | |
| Phoenix Suns (15-45) | at | Orlando Magic (27-33) | ORL | -12.5 | 217 | 7:00 PM |
| Miami Heat (34-26) | at | Philadelphia 76ers (8-53) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 7:00 PM |
| Indiana Pacers (32-29) | at | Charlotte Hornets (32-28) | CHA | -3 | 199.5 | 7:00 PM |
| New York Knicks (25-37) | at | Boston Celtics (37-25) | BOS | -9.5 | 210 | 7:30 PM |
| Portland Trail Blazers (33-29) | at | Toronto Raptors (40-19) | TOR | -5 | 208 | 7:30 PM |
| Minnesota Timberwolves (19-42) | at | Milwaukee Bucks (25-36) | MIL | -4.5 | 213 | 8:00 PM |
| Utah Jazz (28-32) | at | Memphis Grizzlies (36-24) | MEM | -1.5 | 194 | 8:00 PM |
| Washington Wizards (30-30) | at | Cleveland Cavaliers (42-17) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 8:00 PM |
| Brooklyn Nets (17-44) | at | Denver Nuggets (24-37) | DEN | -5.5 | 208.5 | 9:00 PM |
| Atlanta Hawks (33-28) | at | Los Angeles Lakers (12-50) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 10:30 PM |
Not the crazy totals we’ve seen the past week or so, but a couple good games to stalk. No real blowout concerns on paper. Of course, there are a couple lines missing. Those will be updated on several of the gaming sites but not here. This is just meant to be an early glance article, not necessarily something you come back to again and again throughout the day for updates.
POINTED UP! – The teams with green numbers for +/- PPG (Points Per Game) are expected to outperform their seasonal scoring averages per Vegas. Teams with red are expected to under-perform.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Team Total | PPG | Team +/- |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | WAS | TBD | 102.9 | TBD |
| Atlanta Hawks | LAL | TBD | 102.3 | TBD |
| Washington Wizards | CLE | TBD | 103 | TBD |
| Los Angeles Lakers | ATL | TBD | 97.8 | TBD |
| Philadelphia 76ers | MIA | TBD | 96.4 | TBD |
| Miami Heat | PHI | TBD | 97.5 | TBD |
| Milwaukee Bucks | MIN | 108.8 | 99.1 | 9.7 |
| Denver Nuggets | BKN | 107 | 101 | 6 |
| Brooklyn Nets | DEN | 101.5 | 97 | 4.5 |
| Toronto Raptors | POR | 106.5 | 102.4 | 4.1 |
| Boston Celtics | NY | 109.8 | 106.1 | 3.7 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | MIL | 104.3 | 101 | 3.3 |
| Orlando Magic | PHO | 114.8 | 100.9 | 13.9 |
| Phoenix Suns | ORL | 102.3 | 100.5 | 1.8 |
| New York Knicks | BOS | 100.3 | 98.8 | 1.5 |
| Indiana Pacers | CHA | 98.3 | 102.3 | -4.1 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | TOR | 101.5 | 103.5 | -2 |
| Utah Jazz | MEM | 96.3 | 97.9 | -1.7 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | UTA | 97.8 | 99.2 | -1.5 |
| Charlotte Hornets | IND | 101.3 | 102.2 | -1 |
It’s apparent the “sorting” feature of my spreadsheet is being dumb lately. I apologize, but it reminds me it’s a good thing I’m color-coding these things. ORL and MIL look good so far.
PACED UP! – Similar to being pointed up, the teams in green should be playing faster than normal while the teams in red should be playing slower. More possessions might mean more opportunity to score points.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Pace | Proj. Pace | Pace +/- |
| New York Knicks | BOS | 95.9 | 99.2 | 3.3 |
| Orlando Magic | PHO | 97.5 | 99.8 | 2.3 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | WAS | 95.2 | 97.4 | 2.2 |
| Miami Heat | PHI | 95.4 | 97.5 | 2.1 |
| Charlotte Hornets | IND | 97.7 | 98.9 | 1.2 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | ATL | 98.1 | 99.1 | 1 |
| Atlanta Hawks | LAL | 99.1 | 99.1 | 0 |
| Brooklyn Nets | DEN | 96.9 | 96.9 | 0 |
| Toronto Raptors | POR | 95.3 | 94.9 | -0.4 |
| Indiana Pacers | CHA | 99.3 | 98.9 | -0.4 |
| Phoenix Suns | ORL | 100.4 | 99.8 | -0.6 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | MIN | 96.7 | 95.8 | -0.9 |
| Denver Nuggets | BKN | 98.1 | 96.9 | -1.2 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | MIL | 97.2 | 95.8 | -1.4 |
| Boston Celtics | NY | 101.4 | 99.2 | -2.2 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | MIA | 100.2 | 97.5 | -2.7 |
| Utah Jazz | MEM | 93.4 | 90.7 | -2.7 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | TOR | 97.7 | 94.9 | -2.8 |
| Washington Wizards | CLE | 100.3 | 97.4 | -2.9 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | UTA | 95.4 | 90.7 | -4.7 |
Wheeeee…..super exciting stuff showing up for this graph. (Sarcasm warning) Nothing really jumping off the page at us today.
TOTAL FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED & DvP RANKINGS – This graphic provides a quick glance at how strong or weak a defensive team plays overall, as well as against a specific position. We are looking for green numbers and trying to avoid red numbers, and we are looking to roster a player from the OPPONENT’s team in the 2nd column. Example, the PHX SG is, theoretically, in great spot.
| Team Defense | Opponent | TotalFPA | vs. PG | vs. SG | vs. SF | vs. PF | vs. C |
| Los Angeles Lakers | Atlanta | 30 | 30 | 28 | 29 | 23 | 28 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | Miami | 28 | 24 | 16 | 28 | 28 | 30 |
| Phoenix Suns | Orlando | 25 | 29 | 30 | 27 | 16 | 8 |
| Denver Nuggets | Brooklyn | 24 | 23 | 27 | 15 | 24 | 19 |
| Brooklyn Nets | Denver | 23 | 26 | 20 | 21 | 18 | 23 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | Minnesota | 22 | 7 | 26 | 25 | 20 | 15 |
| Orlando Magic | Phoenix | 20 | 20 | 5 | 20 | 19 | 10 |
| Charlotte Hornets | Indiana | 19 | 13 | 13 | 22 | 22 | 11 |
| Atlanta Hawks | L.A. Lakers | 18 | 6 | 19 | 16 | 17 | 25 |
| Washington Wizards | Cleveland | 16 | 15 | 24 | 26 | 7 | 13 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Milwaukee | 14 | 21 | 22 | 18 | 9 | 7 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | Toronto | 13 | 17 | 18 | 6 | 21 | 24 |
| Boston Celtics | New York | 12 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 26 | 26 |
| New York Knicks | Boston | 11 | 18 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 17 |
| Indiana Pacers | Charlotte | 9 | 10 | 14 | 5 | 13 | 12 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | Utah | 6 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 2 |
| Miami Heat | Philadelphia | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 4 | 6 |
| Toronto Raptors | Portland | 4 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Washington | 3 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 1 |
| Utah Jazz | Memphis | 2 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Another easy thing to watch is exhaustion control. Many coaches will rest players on the 2nd half of consecutive games. Basketball can take it’s toll and coaches need to keep their players fresh when they can. Players playing back to back games become prime targets for rest or limited minutes, obviously hurting their fantasy production and value to us. We further watch for situations like 3 games in 4 nights or the dreaded 4 games in 5 nights. We also watch traveling teams with particular interest.
BACK 2 BACKS! – Graphics containing teams we should watch for limited minutes and/or rest days. Maybe hard to see the colors, but yellow is caution, orange is a little more caution, and red is just crazy.
| Team | B2B | 2of3 | 3of4 | 4of5 |
| Atlanta | ||||
| Boston | Yes | |||
| Brooklyn | ||||
| Charlotte | Yes | Yes | ||
| Chicago | ||||
| Cleveland | ||||
| Dallas | ||||
| Denver | Yes | |||
| Detroit | ||||
| Golden State | ||||
| Houston | ||||
| Indiana | Yes | |||
| L.A. Clippers | ||||
| L.A. Lakers | Yes | Yes | ||
| Memphis | Yes | |||
| Miami | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Milwaukee | Yes | |||
| Minnesota | Yes | |||
| New Orleans | Yes | |||
| New York | ||||
| Oklahoma City | Yes | |||
| Orlando | Yes | Yes | ||
| Philadelphia | Yes | |||
| Phoenix | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Portland | Yes | Yes | ||
| Sacramento | Yes | |||
| San Antonio | Yes | |||
| Toronto | Yes | |||
| Utah | Yes | |||
| Washington | Yes |
If you made it this far and appreciate the tips and snippits of advice you are getting, you might want to see/learn more. For information on joining the VIP Insiders, click HERE! You will gain access to:
- Private Slack channel exclusively for VIP Insiders, where you find DFS NBA pro Keith Hall actively answering questions and offering strategy advice.
- Daily player picks on slates with 5 or more games, only excluding Sundays.
- Daily cheatsheets for both FanDuel and DraftKings to help build your lineups.
- Early access to any and all semi-private freerolls on FanDuel or DraftKings offered to the DFS Army.
Bankroll Challenge results for week of Feb 22, 2016…..
| Date | Score | Money IN | Money Out | Profit/Loss | Adjusted Bankroll |
| Mon – 22 | 316.6 | 5 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 66.3 |
| Tues – 23 | 278.8 | 14 | 17.3 | 3.3 | 69.6 |
| Wed – 24 | 286.3 | 16 | 14 | -2 | 67.6 |
| Thurs – 25 | 328 | 12 | 37.1 | 25.1 | 92.7 |
| Fri – 26 | 298.6 | 10 | 17.9 | 7.9 | 100.6 |
| Mon-29 | 332.6 | 19 | 45 | 26 | 126.6 |
| Tues-1 | 289.9 | 14 | 1.9 | -12.1 | 114.5 |
| Wed-2 | 265.7 | 11 | 10.7 | -0.3 | 114.2 |
| Wed-2b | 253.8 | 9 | 4.4 | -5.6 | 109.6 |
| Thurs-3 | 268.3 | 10 | 0 | -10 | 99.6 |
Gather ’round, children, it’s time for another story from Wise Old Grampa Man. Variance is a bitch. End of long story.
Ha…just kidding. But, variance is a bitch. You can see the link back up at the top to my post on dealing with variance. I want to use this section today to elaborate because many of you have admitted to me you have “bankroll discipline” issues. I hate hearing that and want to help. So, I describe my own anality for you to watch because I don’t go busto. You should likely be somewhere between me and yourself because I’m a bit too conservative, but I can certainly help show you what NOT to do right now. And that’s chase losses.
I’m on a bit of a downturn here. That’s pretty obvious. It’s especially hard the day after you get blanked in cash games, let alone GPPs. That 268 yesterday would have posted a win just the day before. This is variance. Look back to the early part of the table. This DFS game definitely has it’s ups and downs. The question is: Can you handle it?
The trick is to be steady. To be consistent. To persevere. To trust your process. The one thing you won’t ever see me do is chase losses. I’m not going to “try to get it back.” At least, not right now. I don’t chase slumps. People do chase, though, and wind up redepositing. Don’t be that guy. Keep it steady, or even retract a little bit. That takes a little discipline because you know your are “due” a winning streak. You need to let it start to show itself before you pursue the heater, though. If you look back at the very beginning of the table you will see what I mean. I was coming off a slump (before the graphic) and got my first winning session in awhile. THEN, I pushed it up a little…..not before. It hit. I did the same the next day. It missed but not by much. I kept things the same and BANG. Three really good sessions in a row that I’m still riding even through the three losing sessions I’m in the middle of right now.
In case you still don’t see it, look at the “adjusted bankroll” column. Note I’m still holding at $99 when I started at $66. And, that’s after a $12 and $10 losing run. The heater was a bit too hot and I’ve given some of my gains back, but that was to be expected. Now, it’s time to see which way this turns. The slump might continue. It might turn around. I will adjust as I go but continue to play within my bankroll. If the slump continues, I will retract how much I put out there until another potential heater shows itself. But, perhaps the biggest question when enduring streaks like these is to look back and ask yourself, “If I told myself two weeks ago my roll would go from $66 to $99 (up 50%), would I be happy with those results?” If the answer is yes……what the hell do I have to complain about? Nothing. I just put my face back down and keep persevering through the variance while maintaining bankroll discipline. Like they say……it’s business, it’s nothing personal. Hopefully that helps a bit because I won’t stop beating this drum.
This Morning Briefing article, again, is not the end-all be-all when it comes to analyzing a slate. This is a first glance to identify targets we may want to dive deeper into. You may, in fact, choose a player in a poor DvP matchup due to other indicators, especially on a short slate night. Don’t overthink this stuff. The concept is to put your players in the best spots to be successful and roll them out. Keith and I will be back later to provide the VIP Insiders with more in-depth player analysis and specific picks for tonight. And, of course, the cheatsheets…… (Remembering, of course, cheatsheets come out on slates 5 games and larger.)
