THATS RIGHT!! You click off a few rounds and score direct hits like this and you will be pimped as our lead photo, too. @frasig is an army member that just blew up a huge 10k win last night in taking down everything he entered this LU into. I have yet to interview him or even congratulate him, but he was kind enough to tweet this out to us last night as the final ball was dunked. Stellar LU…….and a huge payday on top of it all. Great work!
It just goes to prove it’s not too late for some bigger wins in NBA. Sure, the injury news and rest and whatnot is just goofy crazy right now, but by following along in our slack channels, you get the best chance possible to succeed with the news breaking and correct pivots to make on a daily basis. I know MLB is around the corner and many of you are watching your bankrolls for the start of the season. If you do play NBA from this point out, just be careful to be selective. I would like to see you able to do both successfully as we start winding down one season and ramping up another. Ok, that said……
Fall in, soldiers!! This process isn’t intended to take long. It’s a skim, if you will. You are starting your research by quickly glancing over the day’s slate and gathering your early intel. Our goal is to give you a head start on today’s action. Keith and I will be back later with picks and analysis for the slate for our VIP Insiders, as well as provide answers to questions as much as possible in the VIP Slack channels.
Daily Fantasy Players are priced by many factors. Some of the key factors are the teams’ seasonal averages in points scored and the pace at which they play. We can assume if a team is expected to score more points than they usually do, players from that team are in a better than usual spot to succeed. We can also assume if a team is expected to play at a faster pace than usual, their players are in a better than usual spot to succeed.
VEGAS LINES – It honestly all starts here. 200 is the standard for a game in which we can expect fantasy goodness to appear. But, a lot more factors come into play, too. We don’t try to predict blowouts, but red spreads indicate the possibility. I will also add the NBA is changing. Last season, there may have been one game total over 230. This season, we have already seen more than ever. 190 totals are becoming more uncommon than common. We may revisit the magical 200 someday and call it 215. Either way, I am targeting the highest few games on any slate, regardless of the totals. I use this graphic as a guide.
| Road Team | Home Team | Favorite | Spread | Total | Tip-Off | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves (23-48) | at | Washington Wizards (35-36) | WAS | -8 | 218 | 7:00 PM |
| Charlotte Hornets (41-30) | at | Detroit Pistons (38-34) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 7:30 PM |
| Orlando Magic (29-42) | at | Miami Heat (41-30) | MIA | -8.5 | 211 | 7:30 PM |
| Milwaukee Bucks (30-42) | at | Atlanta Hawks (42-30) | ATL | -9 | 203 | 8:00 PM |
| Toronto Raptors (48-22) | at | Houston Rockets (35-37) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 8:00 PM |
| Memphis Grizzlies (41-31) | at | San Antonio Spurs (60-11) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 8:30 PM |
| Phoenix Suns (20-51) | at | Sacramento Kings (27-44) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 10:00 PM |
| Dallas Mavericks (35-36) | at | Golden State Warriors (64-7) | GS | -14 | 225 | 10:30 PM |
| Denver Nuggets (30-42) | at | Los Angeles Lakers (15-56) | DEN | -2.5 | 215 | 10:30 PM |
Insert obligatory “screw you, Vegas, you lazy humps” comment here. LOL. TIP – You could very feasibly stack the last three games of the night and do incredibly well here in a main slate. Think about it……
POINTED UP! – The teams with green numbers for +/- PPG (Points Per Game) are expected to outperform their seasonal scoring averages per Vegas. Teams with red are expected to under-perform.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Team Total | PPG | Team +/- |
| Charlotte Hornets | DET | TBD | 103 | TBD |
| Memphis Grizzlies | SA | TBD | 99.2 | TBD |
| Sacramento Kings | PHO | TBD | 106.4 | TBD |
| Detroit Pistons | CHA | TBD | 102.3 | TBD |
| Phoenix Suns | SAC | TBD | 100.5 | TBD |
| San Antonio Spurs | MEM | TBD | 104.4 | TBD |
| Toronto Raptors | HOU | TBD | 102.7 | TBD |
| Houston Rockets | TOR | TBD | 105.9 | TBD |
| Washington Wizards | MIN | 113 | 103.1 | 9.9 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | DEN | 106.3 | 98 | 8.3 |
| Denver Nuggets | LAL | 108.8 | 102.3 | 6.5 |
| Golden State Warriors | DAL | 119.5 | 115.3 | 4.2 |
| Atlanta Hawks | MIL | 106 | 102.8 | 3.2 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | WAS | 105 | 101.9 | 3.1 |
| Dallas Mavericks | GS | 105.5 | 102.9 | 2.6 |
| Miami Heat | ORL | 109.8 | 99.4 | 10.4 |
| Orlando Magic | MIA | 101.3 | 100.8 | 0.5 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | ATL | 97 | 99.1 | -2.1 |
PACED UP! – Similar to being pointed up, the teams in green should be playing faster than normal while the teams in red should be playing slower. More possessions might mean more opportunity to score points.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Pace | Proj. Pace | Pace +/- |
| Phoenix Suns | SAC | 100.4 | 104.5 | 4.1 |
| Dallas Mavericks | GS | 96.8 | 100.7 | 3.9 |
| Sacramento Kings | PHO | 102.2 | 104.5 | 2.3 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | WAS | 97.5 | 99.8 | 2.3 |
| Toronto Raptors | HOU | 95.4 | 97.4 | 2 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | ATL | 96.5 | 97.5 | 1 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | DEN | 98 | 98.2 | 0.2 |
| Denver Nuggets | LAL | 98.3 | 98.2 | -0.1 |
| Miami Heat | ORL | 95.8 | 95.7 | -0.1 |
| Detroit Pistons | CHA | 97.6 | 97.4 | -0.2 |
| Charlotte Hornets | DET | 97.9 | 97.4 | -0.5 |
| Washington Wizards | MIN | 100.4 | 99.8 | -0.6 |
| Golden State Warriors | DAL | 102 | 100.7 | -1.3 |
| Atlanta Hawks | MIL | 99.1 | 97.5 | -1.6 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | SA | 95.8 | 94 | -1.8 |
| San Antonio Spurs | MEM | 96.3 | 94 | -2.3 |
| Orlando Magic | MIA | 98 | 95.7 | -2.3 |
| Houston Rockets | TOR | 100.1 | 97.4 | -2.7 |
TOTAL FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED & DvP RANKINGS – This graphic provides a quick glance at how strong or weak a defensive team plays overall, as well as against a specific position. We are looking for green numbers and trying to avoid red numbers, and we are looking to roster a player from the OPPONENT’s team in the 2nd column. Example, the DEN PG is, theoretically, in great spot.
| Team Defense | Opponent | TotalFPA | vs. PG | vs. SG | vs. SF | vs. PF | vs. C |
| Los Angeles Lakers | Denver | 28 | 30 | 28 | 28 | 19 | 28 |
| Sacramento Kings | Phoenix | 28 | 23 | 29 | 23 | 30 | 19 |
| Houston Rockets | Toronto | 27 | 14 | 23 | 30 | 29 | 20 |
| Phoenix Suns | Sacramento | 26 | 29 | 30 | 27 | 16 | 11 |
| Denver Nuggets | L.A. Lakers | 23 | 17 | 27 | 18 | 25 | 13 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | Atlanta | 21 | 6 | 25 | 24 | 18 | 22 |
| Orlando Magic | Miami | 20 | 19 | 4 | 17 | 23 | 15 |
| Dallas Mavericks | Golden State | 19 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 27 | 16 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Washington | 18 | 21 | 21 | 19 | 11 | 7 |
| Golden State Warriors | Dallas | 16 | 26 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 21 |
| Charlotte Hornets | Detroit | 15 | 12 | 14 | 20 | 20 | 12 |
| Atlanta Hawks | Milwaukee | 14 | 5 | 20 | 13 | 14 | 23 |
| Washington Wizards | Minnesota | 13 | 15 | 17 | 25 | 7 | 8 |
| Detroit Pistons | Charlotte | 7 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 9 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | San Antonio | 6 | 10 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 4 |
| Miami Heat | Orlando | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 6 |
| Toronto Raptors | Houston | 4 | 3 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 10 |
| San Antonio Spurs | Memphis | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
Another easy thing to watch is exhaustion control. Many coaches will rest players on the 2nd half of consecutive games. Basketball can take it’s toll and coaches need to keep their players fresh when they can. Players playing back to back games become prime targets for rest or limited minutes, obviously hurting their fantasy production and value to us. We further watch for situations like 3 games in 4 nights or the dreaded 4 games in 5 nights. We also watch traveling teams with particular interest.
BACK 2 BACKS! – Graphics containing teams we should watch for limited minutes and/or rest days. Maybe hard to see the colors, but yellow is caution, orange is a little more caution, and red is just crazy.
| Team | B2B | 2of3 | 3of4 | 4of5 |
| Atlanta | ||||
| Boston | ||||
| Brooklyn | Yes | |||
| Charlotte | ||||
| Chicago | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Cleveland | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Dallas | ||||
| Denver | ||||
| Detroit | ||||
| Golden State | ||||
| Houston | Yes | |||
| Indiana | ||||
| L.A. Clippers | Yes | |||
| L.A. Lakers | Yes | |||
| Memphis | ||||
| Miami | Yes | |||
| Milwaukee | ||||
| Minnesota | ||||
| New Orleans | Yes | |||
| New York | Yes | |||
| Oklahoma City | Yes | |||
| Orlando | ||||
| Philadelphia | ||||
| Phoenix | ||||
| Portland | Yes | |||
| Sacramento | ||||
| San Antonio | ||||
| Toronto | ||||
| Utah | Yes | |||
| Washington |
If you made it this far and appreciate the tips and snippits of advice you are getting, you might want to see/learn more. For information on joining the VIP Insiders, click HERE! You will gain access to:
- Private Slack channel exclusively for VIP Insiders, where you find DFS NBA pro Keith Hall actively answering questions and offering strategy advice.
- Daily player picks on slates with 5 or more games, only excluding Sundays.
- Daily cheatsheets for both FanDuel and DraftKings to help build your lineups.
- Early access to any and all semi-private freerolls on FanDuel or DraftKings offered to the DFS Army.
Bankroll Challenge rolling results since Feb 22, 2016…..
I am incredibly conservative with my bankroll. I believe it’s what makes me one of the best to teach you how to manage yours. You won’t likely be as selective as me, but I believe you need to see the pendulum swing to both sides before you can find the middle that’s right for you.
I didn’t play last night. The way the news was breaking, and with my wife perfectly timing her own run to Target, there just wasn’t anyway to keep up with all the players sitting and who was going to start. So, I cancelled my LUs and pulled out of my contests.
I know “you can’t win if you don’t play,” but sometimes not playing IS winning when you know the deck is stacked against you. This discipline is what holds onto your bankroll longer so you have some of it left to dump into the market when you do see opportunity. I share because I want you to learn. I want you here all year long, playing and enjoying the sports we love to watch with added incentive, and talking about such sports with a community of people that think a lot like you. That can’t happen if you don’t exercise discipline when the signs point toward disaster.
I’m pulling the graphic of the bankroll challenge for the season because my own play will be very sporadic from here. The write-ups will continue, but there will just be too many “n/a” slots in there to make it look right for print. I will let you know when I do play and how it went, though. And, I will still offer commentary in this section when something pops to mind. I hope you’ve enjoyed the evolution of this section. It’s going to serve me well in MLB and NFL going forward…..
This Morning Briefing article, again, is not the end-all be-all when it comes to analyzing a slate. This is a first glance to identify targets we may want to dive deeper into. You may, in fact, choose a player in a poor DvP matchup due to other indicators, especially on a short slate night. Don’t overthink this stuff. The concept is to put your players in the best spots to be successful and roll them out. Keith and I will be back later to provide the VIP Insiders with more in-depth player analysis and specific picks for tonight. And, of course, the cheatsheets…… (Remembering, of course, cheatsheets come out on slates 5 games and larger.)
