Don’t have a lot to say in this section today other than …… IT’S FRIDAY! I’ve said a lot this week already. Honestly, I’m temporarily out of words. My loss is your gain today.
Fall in, soldiers!! This process isn’t intended to take long. It’s a skim, if you will. You are starting your research by quickly glancing over the day’s slate and gathering your early intel. Our goal is to give you a head start on today’s action. Keith and I will be back later with picks and analysis for the slate for our VIP Insiders, as well as provide answers to questions as much as possible in the VIP Slack channels.
Daily Fantasy Players are priced by many factors. Some of the key factors are the teams’ seasonal averages in points scored and the pace at which they play. We can assume if a team is expected to score more points than they usually do, players from that team are in a better than usual spot to succeed. We can also assume if a team is expected to play at a faster pace than usual, their players are in a better than usual spot to succeed.
VEGAS LINES – It honestly all starts here. 200 is the standard for a game in which we can expect fantasy goodness to appear. But, a lot more factors come into play, too. We don’t try to predict blowouts, but red spreads indicate the possibility. I will also add the NBA is changing. Last season, there may have been one game total over 230. This season, we have already seen more than ever. 190 totals are becoming more uncommon than common. We may revisit the magical 200 someday and call it 215. Either way, I am targeting the highest few games on any slate, regardless of the totals. I use this graphic as a guide.
| Road Team | Home Team | Favorite | Spread | Total | Tip-Off | |
| Detroit Pistons (33-31) | at | Charlotte Hornets (35-28) | CHA | -4 | 200.5 | 7:00 PM |
| Brooklyn Nets (18-46) | at | Philadelphia 76ers (8-56) | BKN | -3.5 | 211.5 | 7:00 PM |
| Houston Rockets (32-32) | at | Boston Celtics (39-26) | BOS | -6 | 221.5 | 7:30 PM |
| Minnesota Timberwolves (20-45) | at | Oklahoma City Thunder (44-20) | OKC | -12.5 | 223.5 | 8:00 PM |
| New Orleans Pelicans (24-39) | at | Memphis Grizzlies (38-26) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 8:00 PM |
| Miami Heat (37-27) | at | Chicago Bulls (32-31) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 8:00 PM |
| Washington Wizards (30-33) | at | Utah Jazz (29-35) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 9:00 PM |
| Orlando Magic (27-36) | at | Sacramento Kings (25-38) | SAC | -9.5 | 203.5 | 10:00 PM |
| Portland Trail Blazers (34-31) | at | Golden State Warriors (57-6) | GS | -13 | 225 | 10:30 PM |
| New York Knicks (27-39) | at | Los Angeles Clippers (41-22) | LAC | -9.5 | 203.5 | 10:30 PM |
I can’t control when the lines are released, but I can share in your misery. Good Lord this ticks me off. I check every morning for you so these are current as of about 9 am EST.
POINTED UP! – The teams with green numbers for +/- PPG (Points Per Game) are expected to outperform their seasonal scoring averages per Vegas. Teams with red are expected to under-perform.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Team Total | PPG | Team +/- |
| Orlando Magic | SAC | 97 | 100.8 | -3.8 |
| Washington Wizards | UTA | TBD | 102.7 | TBD |
| Brooklyn Nets | PHI | 107.5 | 97.8 | 9.7 |
| Sacramento Kings | ORL | 106.5 | 107 | -0.5 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | BKN | 104 | 96.7 | 7.3 |
| Miami Heat | CHI | TBD | 98.1 | TBD |
| New Orleans Pelicans | MEM | TBD | 102.7 | TBD |
| Memphis Grizzlies | NO | TBD | 99.1 | TBD |
| Utah Jazz | WAS | TBD | 97.6 | TBD |
| Chicago Bulls | MIA | TBD | 101.6 | TBD |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | MIN | 118 | 110.1 | 7.9 |
| Boston Celtics | HOU | 113.8 | 106.2 | 7.6 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | OKC | 105.5 | 101.4 | 4.1 |
| Golden State Warriors | POR | 119 | 115.1 | 3.9 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | GS | 106 | 103.8 | 2.2 |
| Houston Rockets | BOS | 107.8 | 105.8 | 2 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | NY | 106.5 | 104.9 | 1.6 |
| Detroit Pistons | CHA | 98.3 | 101.7 | -3.5 |
| New York Knicks | LAC | 97 | 99.3 | -2.3 |
| Charlotte Hornets | DET | 102.3 | 102.7 | -0.5 |
PACED UP! – Similar to being pointed up, the teams in green should be playing faster than normal while the teams in red should be playing slower. More possessions might mean more opportunity to score points.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Pace | Proj. Pace | Pace +/- |
| Orlando Magic | SAC | 97.8 | 102.2 | 4.4 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | GS | 97.7 | 101.9 | 4.2 |
| Houston Rockets | BOS | 100.1 | 103.3 | 3.2 |
| Utah Jazz | WAS | 93.5 | 95.7 | 2.2 |
| Brooklyn Nets | PHI | 96.9 | 98.9 | 2 |
| Boston Celtics | HOU | 101.3 | 103.3 | 2 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | OKC | 97.3 | 98.7 | 1.4 |
| Miami Heat | CHI | 95.6 | 96.5 | 0.9 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | NO | 95.5 | 96.4 | 0.9 |
| New York Knicks | LAC | 96 | 96.4 | 0.4 |
| Sacramento Kings | ORL | 102.5 | 102.2 | -0.3 |
| Detroit Pistons | CHA | 97.5 | 97.2 | -0.3 |
| Golden State Warriors | POR | 102.3 | 101.9 | -0.4 |
| Charlotte Hornets | DET | 97.8 | 97.2 | -0.6 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | MIN | 99.5 | 98.7 | -0.8 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | BKN | 100.1 | 98.9 | -1.2 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | NY | 98.5 | 96.4 | -2.1 |
| Chicago Bulls | MIA | 99 | 96.5 | -2.5 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | MEM | 99 | 96.4 | -2.6 |
| Washington Wizards | UTA | 100.3 | 95.7 | -4.6 |
TOTAL FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED & DvP RANKINGS – This graphic provides a quick glance at how strong or weak a defensive team plays overall, as well as against a specific position. We are looking for green numbers and trying to avoid red numbers, and we are looking to roster a player from the OPPONENT’s team in the 2nd column. Example, the BOS SF is, theoretically, in great spot.
| Team Defense | Opponent | TotalFPA | vs. PG | vs. SG | vs. SF | vs. PF | vs. C |
| Sacramento Kings | Orlando | 29 | 24 | 29 | 24 | 29 | 16 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | Brooklyn | 28 | 25 | 18 | 28 | 28 | 30 |
| Houston Rockets | Boston | 27 | 14 | 23 | 30 | 30 | 14 |
| Chicago Bulls | Miami | 25 | 27 | 15 | 23 | 24 | 26 |
| Brooklyn Nets | Philadelphia | 24 | 28 | 21 | 19 | 19 | 24 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | Memphis | 21 | 15 | 26 | 16 | 16 | 29 |
| Orlando Magic | Sacramento | 20 | 22 | 5 | 17 | 21 | 11 |
| Charlotte Hornets | Detroit | 18 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 22 | 12 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Oklahoma City | 17 | 21 | 22 | 21 | 10 | 7 |
| Golden State Warriors | Portland | 16 | 26 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 20 |
| Washington Wizards | Utah | 15 | 16 | 20 | 26 | 6 | 10 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | Golden State | 13 | 18 | 19 | 5 | 18 | 23 |
| Boston Celtics | Houston | 12 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 26 | 27 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Minnesota | 11 | 23 | 24 | 9 | 9 | 5 |
| New York Knicks | L.A. Clippers | 10 | 17 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 15 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | New York | 8 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 21 |
| Detroit Pistons | Charlotte | 7 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 13 | 8 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | New Orleans | 6 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 3 |
| Miami Heat | Chicago | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 5 | 6 |
| Utah Jazz | Washington | 2 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Another easy thing to watch is exhaustion control. Many coaches will rest players on the 2nd half of consecutive games. Basketball can take it’s toll and coaches need to keep their players fresh when they can. Players playing back to back games become prime targets for rest or limited minutes, obviously hurting their fantasy production and value to us. We further watch for situations like 3 games in 4 nights or the dreaded 4 games in 5 nights. We also watch traveling teams with particular interest.
BACK 2 BACKS! – Graphics containing teams we should watch for limited minutes and/or rest days. Maybe hard to see the colors, but yellow is caution, orange is a little more caution, and red is just crazy.
| Team | B2B | 2of3 | 3of4 | 4of5 |
| Atlanta | ||||
| Boston | Yes | |||
| Brooklyn | ||||
| Charlotte | Yes | |||
| Chicago | Yes | |||
| Cleveland | Yes | |||
| Dallas | ||||
| Denver | ||||
| Detroit | Yes | |||
| Golden State | Yes | |||
| Houston | Yes | |||
| Indiana | ||||
| L.A. Clippers | Yes | |||
| L.A. Lakers | ||||
| Memphis | Yes | |||
| Miami | Yes | |||
| Milwaukee | ||||
| Minnesota | ||||
| New Orleans | Yes | |||
| New York | Yes | Yes | ||
| Oklahoma City | Yes | |||
| Orlando | ||||
| Philadelphia | Yes | |||
| Phoenix | Yes | |||
| Portland | ||||
| Sacramento | Yes | |||
| San Antonio | ||||
| Toronto | ||||
| Utah | Yes | Yes | ||
| Washington |
If you made it this far and appreciate the tips and snippits of advice you are getting, you might want to see/learn more. For information on joining the VIP Insiders, click HERE! You will gain access to:
- Private Slack channel exclusively for VIP Insiders, where you find DFS NBA pro Keith Hall actively answering questions and offering strategy advice.
- Daily player picks on slates with 5 or more games, only excluding Sundays.
- Daily cheatsheets for both FanDuel and DraftKings to help build your lineups.
- Early access to any and all semi-private freerolls on FanDuel or DraftKings offered to the DFS Army.
Bankroll Challenge rolling results since Feb 22, 2016…..
| Date | Score | Money IN | Money Out | Profit/Loss | Adjusted Bankroll |
| Fri – 26 | 298.6 | 10 | 17.9 | 7.9 | 100.6 |
| Mon-29 | 332.6 | 19 | 45 | 26 | 126.6 |
| Tues-1 | 289.9 | 14 | 1.9 | -12.1 | 114.5 |
| Wed-2 | 265.7 | 11 | 10.7 | -0.3 | 114.2 |
| Wed-2b | 253.8 | 9 | 4.4 | -5.6 | 109.6 |
| Thurs-3 | 268.3 | 10 | 0 | -10 | 99.6 |
| Fri-4 | 289.1 | 20 | 7.7 | -12.3 | 91.9 |
| Mon – 7 | 379.2 | 10 | 53 | 43 | 134.9 |
| Tues – 8 | 222.7 | 6 | 0 | -6 | 128.9 |
| Wed – 9a | 300 | 7 | 2.3 | -4.7 | 124.2 |
| Wed – 9b | 321.2 | 7 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 129.3 |
| Thrus – 10 | 301.5 | 8 | 4 | -4 | 125.3 |
If you follow this section, you need to know I started this challenge with $50. You can see the ups and downs along the way we call “variance.” However, you can see that with solid construction and contest selection, you can win over the long run. Had I recklessly gambled during the first week of March, I may not have survived long enough to hit on the 7th. I’m also not going nuts coming off that nice night, either. I’m holding onto what I have gained and just waiting it out until I hit again.
This Morning Briefing article, again, is not the end-all be-all when it comes to analyzing a slate. This is a first glance to identify targets we may want to dive deeper into. You may, in fact, choose a player in a poor DvP matchup due to other indicators, especially on a short slate night. Don’t overthink this stuff. The concept is to put your players in the best spots to be successful and roll them out. Keith and I will be back later to provide the VIP Insiders with more in-depth player analysis and specific picks for tonight. And, of course, the cheatsheets…… (Remembering, of course, cheatsheets come out on slates 5 games and larger.)
