First off, I want to say a big thank you to those that follow this article on a daily basis. Knowing you are out there is more than enough motivation to keep this thing going and to constantly think of ways to bring you even more information at a glance so you can start your research here on a daily basis. I very much appreciate the kind notes and comments I receive and hear about on an almost daily basis now. It matters.
Second, I want to dive into something a little different. Since I’m not posting my “Bankroll Challenge” right now (due to lack of play volume, which is tied to time to research and time to build LUs centered around a work day), I want to tell you what happened last night.
I decided at the VERY LAST MINUTE to play. I mean I didn’t have time to look at a thing until 30 min before lock. I had no time to get a feel for players, recent performances, matchups, read write ups I usually read, massage LU construction, nothing……I mean nothing. I came in colder than my bare ass in a snow drift. Add to that the fact I hadn’t played a slate since last Thursday due to the Easter holiday and travel, and I was like two asses in a snow drift.
I could have reached out. I could have bought a LU. I could have tried to build one from scratch. Instead, I did what had sort of worked for me before……..I went to a LU Optimizer and plugged theirs in cold…..no changes. When I am more plugged in, I will find my players I think are in the very best spots and form a core. Sometimes it’s 2 or 3 players. Sometimes it’s 10+ players. I will decided who I can’t live without and then use an optimizer to mix and match. I use the optimizers to play and see where construction can take me. Sometimes it’s very much the way I’m currently thinking. Sometimes it’s a different direction entirely. But, I’ve done well with the help because computers right now can process more information more accurately than I can. I don’t feel guilty about this. And, it enlightened me to why people might be buying LUs directly from sellers. I will tell you it’s not the way to go. No system is perfect. Especially a system anyone can use. If a drunken monkey can do it, you are going to find a lot of duplicated LUs, which serve to ruin your ROI in all honesty.
My results were pretty bad….lol. I went in with a whopping $4, but it’s the ROI of 0% that hurts. I posted a score of 244. That’s my lowest in 2 months when all players played and remained healthy for the entirety of the slate. I missed the very consistent small leagues I love completely….finishing dead last across the board.
NBA takes time. You can’t just plug and play a slate. You need to follow players you trust. Hopefully, one is me with this at-a-glance look at a slate. Hopefully, another is BoomersDaddy in our DFS Army, or even AlWalsh also of the Army. But, there are also a TON of regular contributors hidden in our Slack channels and inside our VIP Insiders program. We intend to carry this forward for all major sports going forward (NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, PGA, even MMA and eSports). We are working hard to bring content to you for free and deeper content for affordable membership prices. You, as an aspiring DFS player, cannot be in a better place and time if you are discovering this article for the first season.
Now, we have a 9-game slate. It’s time to……
Fall in, soldiers!! This process isn’t intended to take long. It’s a skim, if you will. You are starting your research by quickly glancing over the day’s slate and gathering your early intel. Our goal is to give you a head start on today’s action. Keith and I will be back later with picks and analysis for the slate for our VIP Insiders, as well as provide answers to questions as much as possible in the VIP Slack channels.
Daily Fantasy Players are priced by many factors. Some of the key factors are the teams’ seasonal averages in points scored and the pace at which they play. We can assume if a team is expected to score more points than they usually do, players from that team are in a better than usual spot to succeed. We can also assume if a team is expected to play at a faster pace than usual, their players are in a better than usual spot to succeed.
VEGAS LINES – It honestly all starts here. 200 is the standard for a game in which we can expect fantasy goodness to appear. But, a lot more factors come into play, too. We don’t try to predict blowouts, but red spreads indicate the possibility. I will also add the NBA is changing. Last season, there may have been one game total over 230. This season, we have already seen more than ever. 190 totals are becoming more uncommon than common. We may revisit the magical 200 someday and call it 215. Either way, I am targeting the highest few games on any slate, regardless of the totals. I use this graphic as a guide.
| Road Team | Home Team | Favorite | Spread | Total | Tip-Off | |
| Atlanta Hawks (45-30) | at | Toronto Raptors (49-24) | TOR | -2 | 200 | 7:30 PM |
| Denver Nuggets (31-44) | at | Memphis Grizzlies (41-33) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 8:00 PM |
| Los Angeles Clippers (46-27) | at | Minnesota Timberwolves (25-49) | LAC | -5.5 | 212 | 8:00 PM |
| Phoenix Suns (20-54) | at | Milwaukee Bucks (30-44) | MIL | -6.5 | 211.5 | 8:00 PM |
| New Orleans Pelicans (27-46) | at | San Antonio Spurs (62-12) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 8:30 PM |
| New York Knicks (30-45) | at | Dallas Mavericks (36-38) | DAL | -5 | 201 | 8:30 PM |
| Golden State Warriors (66-7) | at | Utah Jazz (37-37) | GS | -5.5 | 205 | 9:00 PM |
| Washington Wizards (36-37) | at | Sacramento Kings (29-45) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 10:00 PM |
| Miami Heat (43-30) | at | Los Angeles Lakers (15-59) | MIA | -10 | 207.5 | 10:30 PM |
POINTED UP! – The teams with green numbers for +/- PPG (Points Per Game) are expected to outperform their seasonal scoring averages per Vegas. Teams with red are expected to under-perform.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Team Total | PPG | Team +/- |
| Denver Nuggets | MEM | TBD | 102.1 | TBD |
| Sacramento Kings | WAS | TBD | 106.7 | TBD |
| San Antonio Spurs | NO | TBD | 104.3 | TBD |
| New Orleans Pelicans | SA | TBD | 102.7 | TBD |
| Memphis Grizzlies | DEN | TBD | 99.1 | TBD |
| Washington Wizards | SAC | TBD | 103.5 | TBD |
| Miami Heat | LAL | 108.8 | 99.6 | 9.2 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | MIN | 108.8 | 104.5 | 4.3 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | PHO | 109 | 98.9 | 10.1 |
| Phoenix Suns | MIL | 102.5 | 100.6 | 1.9 |
| Utah Jazz | GS | 99.8 | 97.9 | 1.8 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | MIA | 98.8 | 97.6 | 1.2 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | LAC | 103.3 | 102.3 | 1 |
| Atlanta Hawks | TOR | 99 | 102.9 | -3.9 |
| Golden State Warriors | UTA | 105.3 | 115.5 | -10.3 |
| Toronto Raptors | ATL | 101 | 102.9 | -1.9 |
| New York Knicks | DAL | 98 | 98.7 | -0.7 |
| Dallas Mavericks | NY | 103 | 103.2 | -0.2 |
PACED UP! – Similar to being pointed up, the teams in green should be playing faster than normal while the teams in red should be playing slower. More possessions might mean more opportunity to score points.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Pace | Proj. Pace | Pace +/- |
| Washington Wizards | SAC | 100.3 | 104.4 | 4.1 |
| Utah Jazz | GS | 93.4 | 97.2 | 3.8 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | PHO | 96.3 | 98.8 | 2.5 |
| Sacramento Kings | WAS | 102.2 | 104.4 | 2.2 |
| San Antonio Spurs | NO | 96.1 | 97.1 | 1 |
| Toronto Raptors | ATL | 95.5 | 96.5 | 1 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | DEN | 95.7 | 95.8 | 0.1 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | LAC | 97.6 | 97.7 | 0.1 |
| Miami Heat | LAL | 95.7 | 95.6 | -0.1 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | MIN | 98.2 | 97.7 | -0.5 |
| New York Knicks | DAL | 95.8 | 94.6 | -1.2 |
| Phoenix Suns | MIL | 100.6 | 98.8 | -1.8 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | SA | 99.1 | 97.1 | -2 |
| Dallas Mavericks | NY | 96.9 | 94.6 | -2.3 |
| Denver Nuggets | MEM | 98.2 | 95.8 | -2.4 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | MIA | 98 | 95.6 | -2.4 |
| Atlanta Hawks | TOR | 99.1 | 96.5 | -2.6 |
| Golden State Warriors | UTA | 101.9 | 97.2 | -4.7 |
TOTAL FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED & DvP RANKINGS – This graphic provides a quick glance at how strong or weak a defensive team plays overall, as well as against a specific position. We are looking for green numbers and trying to avoid red numbers, and we are looking to roster a player from the OPPONENT’s team in the 2nd column. Example, the MIL SG is, theoretically, in great spot.
| Team Defense | Opponent | TotalFPA | vs. PG | vs. SG | vs. SF | vs. PF | vs. C |
| Los Angeles Lakers | Miami | 30 | 30 | 28 | 28 | 20 | 28 |
| Sacramento Kings | Washington | 28 | 24 | 29 | 22 | 30 | 18 |
| Phoenix Suns | Milwaukee | 25 | 29 | 30 | 27 | 13 | 14 |
| Denver Nuggets | Memphis | 24 | 21 | 27 | 20 | 24 | 12 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | San Antonio | 22 | 19 | 26 | 15 | 19 | 29 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | Phoenix | 21 | 5 | 25 | 26 | 18 | 21 |
| Dallas Mavericks | New York | 20 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 27 | 17 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | L.A. Clippers | 18 | 25 | 22 | 18 | 10 | 7 |
| Golden State Warriors | Utah | 16 | 26 | 11 | 13 | 17 | 22 |
| Washington Wizards | Sacramento | 14 | 15 | 18 | 24 | 7 | 8 |
| Atlanta Hawks | Toronto | 13 | 6 | 17 | 12 | 14 | 23 |
| New York Knicks | Dallas | 11 | 20 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 13 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | Minnesota | 8 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 16 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | Denver | 6 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 15 | 5 |
| Toronto Raptors | Atlanta | 5 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| Miami Heat | L.A. Lakers | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 6 |
| Utah Jazz | Golden State | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| San Antonio Spurs | New Orleans | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
BACK 2 BACKS! – Graphics containing teams we should watch for limited minutes and/or rest days. Maybe hard to see the colors, but yellow is caution, orange is a little more caution, and red is just crazy.
| Team | B2B | 2of3 | 3of4 | 4of5 |
| Atlanta | Yes | |||
| Boston | ||||
| Brooklyn | Yes | |||
| Charlotte | ||||
| Chicago | Yes | |||
| Cleveland | ||||
| Dallas | Yes | Yes | ||
| Denver | Yes | Yes | ||
| Detroit | ||||
| Golden State | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Houston | ||||
| Indiana | ||||
| L.A. Clippers | Yes | Yes | ||
| L.A. Lakers | Yes | Yes | ||
| Memphis | Yes | |||
| Miami | Yes | |||
| Milwaukee | ||||
| Minnesota | Yes | |||
| New Orleans | Yes | |||
| New York | Yes | |||
| Oklahoma City | Yes | |||
| Orlando | ||||
| Philadelphia | ||||
| Phoenix | Yes | |||
| Portland | ||||
| Sacramento | Yes | Yes | ||
| San Antonio | Yes | |||
| Toronto | Yes | |||
| Utah | Yes | |||
| Washington | Yes | Yes | Yes |
If you made it this far and appreciate the tips and snippits of advice you are getting, you might want to see/learn more. For information on joining the VIP Insiders, click HERE! You will gain access to:
- Private Slack channel exclusively for VIP Insiders, where you find DFS NBA pro Keith Hall actively answering questions and offering strategy advice.
- Daily player picks on slates with 5 or more games, only excluding Sundays.
- Daily cheatsheets for both FanDuel and DraftKings to help build your lineups.
- Early access to any and all semi-private freerolls on FanDuel or DraftKings offered to the DFS Army.
This Morning Briefing article, again, is not the end-all be-all when it comes to analyzing a slate. This is a first glance to identify targets we may want to dive deeper into. You may, in fact, choose a player in a poor DvP matchup due to other indicators, especially on a short slate night. Don’t overthink this stuff. The concept is to put your players in the best spots to be successful and roll them out. Keith and I will be back later to provide the VIP Insiders with more in-depth player analysis and specific picks for tonight. And, of course, the cheatsheets…… (Remembering, of course, cheatsheets come out on slates 5 games and larger.)
