Wild days, wild nights seems to be what we are in store for the rest of the way with the NBA. Late scratches happen and value opens up as lock time nears everyday now as coaches rest their players and leave us scrambling. You definitely need a source you can trust to make the necessary pivots off sitting players and evaluating the new starters or, in some cases, moving off a game entirely because a new matchup just became better. Our Slack Channels, especially our VIP Insider channels, are very active in the early evenings right now. Keith is in there tossing player news out as it breaks. You can follow something like a RotoGrinders app or Rotoworld or even Twitter. All great sources. However, you can also just follow our Slack Channel and see HOW a player sitting affects the others. For instance, it’s widespread knowledge that when DeMarcus Cousins sits, the pivot goes to a different position in Rudy Gay because he gets a bump in usage. However, lately, the real pivot has been to Kosta Koufus. Granted, it didn’t play this way because Gay sat last night also, but many players made this mistake last week. But, you didn’t make this mistake if you were in our Slack Channels. Give them some consideration as your go-to source when players get close to lock.
Let’s dig into this slate with a knife and fork….
Fall in, soldiers!! This process isn’t intended to take long. It’s a skim, if you will. You are starting your research by quickly glancing over the day’s slate and gathering your early intel. Our goal is to give you a head start on today’s action. Keith and I will be back later with picks and analysis for the slate for our VIP Insiders, as well as provide answers to questions as much as possible in the VIP Slack channels.
Daily Fantasy Players are priced by many factors. Some of the key factors are the teams’ seasonal averages in points scored and the pace at which they play. We can assume if a team is expected to score more points than they usually do, players from that team are in a better than usual spot to succeed. We can also assume if a team is expected to play at a faster pace than usual, their players are in a better than usual spot to succeed.
VEGAS LINES – It honestly all starts here. 200 is the standard for a game in which we can expect fantasy goodness to appear. But, a lot more factors come into play, too. We don’t try to predict blowouts, but red spreads indicate the possibility. I will also add the NBA is changing. Last season, there may have been one game total over 230. This season, we have already seen more than ever. 190 totals are becoming more uncommon than common. We may revisit the magical 200 someday and call it 215. Either way, I am targeting the highest few games on any slate, regardless of the totals. I use this graphic as a guide.
| Road Team | Home Team | Favorite | Spread | Total | Tip-Off | |
| Brooklyn Nets (21-51) | at | Orlando Magic (30-43) | ORL | -6 | 213.5 | 7:00 PM |
| Chicago Bulls (36-36) | at | Indiana Pacers (39-34) | IND | -7 | 203 | 7:00 PM |
| Charlotte Hornets (42-31) | at | Philadelphia 76ers (9-65) | CHA | -11.5 | 209 | 7:00 PM |
| Oklahoma City Thunder (51-22) | at | Detroit Pistons (39-35) | OKC | -2.5 | 215.5 | 7:30 PM |
| Houston Rockets (36-38) | at | Cleveland Cavaliers (52-21) | CLE | -1.5 | 214 | 8:00 PM |
| Washington Wizards (36-37) | at | Golden State Warriors (66-7) | GS | -13 | 226.5 | 10:30 PM |
Shorter slate of 6 games. Great size for beginners and veterans alike, imo. A couple of blowout concerns but some great totals that might lead to a lot of points well spread across the slate. The “Hammer Game” of WAS out in GSW is intriguing to say the least. If you didn’t have some of last night’s hammer, you might have gotten chased down late. It might be a little more important tonight……just sayin’.
POINTED UP! – The teams with green numbers for +/- PPG (Points Per Game) are expected to outperform their seasonal scoring averages per Vegas. Teams with red are expected to under-perform.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Team Total | PPG | Team +/- |
| Orlando Magic | BKN | 109.8 | 100.9 | 8.8 |
| Charlotte Hornets | PHI | 110.3 | 103.2 | 7.1 |
| Brooklyn Nets | ORL | 103.8 | 98.7 | 5.1 |
| Golden State Warriors | WAS | 119.8 | 115.5 | 4.3 |
| Detroit Pistons | OKC | 106.5 | 102.4 | 4.1 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | HOU | 107.8 | 103.9 | 3.8 |
| Washington Wizards | GS | 106.8 | 103.5 | 3.3 |
| Indiana Pacers | CHI | 105 | 101.8 | 3.2 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | CHA | 98.8 | 97.2 | 1.6 |
| Houston Rockets | CLE | 106.3 | 105.9 | 0.3 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | DET | 109 | 110.2 | -1.2 |
| Chicago Bulls | IND | 98 | 101.5 | -3.5 |
No one in particular is suffering tonight. However, some teams are benefiting by Vegas indicating to us they will score more points than usual. This is the first place you can start researching for your value plays. Personally, I’m looking at the ORL/BKN game, provided no one sits and blows everything up. Both are expected to score more than usual and the Vegas line indicates it might be one of the closer, competitive games of the night.
PACED UP! – Similar to being pointed up, the teams in green should be playing faster than normal while the teams in red should be playing slower. More possessions might mean more opportunity to score points.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Pace | Proj. Pace | Pace +/- |
| Washington Wizards | GS | 100.3 | 104.1 | 3.8 |
| Charlotte Hornets | PHI | 97.8 | 100.1 | 2.3 |
| Golden State Warriors | WAS | 101.9 | 104.1 | 2.2 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | HOU | 95.3 | 97.2 | 1.9 |
| Detroit Pistons | OKC | 97.6 | 98.9 | 1.3 |
| Chicago Bulls | IND | 98.6 | 99.6 | 1 |
| Indiana Pacers | CHI | 99.1 | 99.6 | 0.5 |
| Brooklyn Nets | ORL | 97 | 96.8 | -0.2 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | CHA | 100.4 | 100.1 | -0.3 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | DET | 99.4 | 98.9 | -0.5 |
| Orlando Magic | BKN | 97.9 | 96.8 | -1.1 |
| Houston Rockets | CLE | 100 | 97.2 | -2.8 |
TOTAL FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED & DvP RANKINGS – This graphic provides a quick glance at how strong or weak a defensive team plays overall, as well as against a specific position. We are looking for green numbers and trying to avoid red numbers, and we are looking to roster a player from the OPPONENT’s team in the 2nd column. Example, the CLE SF is, theoretically, in great spot.
| Team Defense | Opponent | TotalFPA | vs. PG | vs. SG | vs. SF | vs. PF | vs. C |
| Philadelphia 76ers | Charlotte | 29 | 28 | 19 | 29 | 28 | 30 |
| Houston Rockets | Cleveland | 27 | 13 | 24 | 30 | 29 | 19 |
| Chicago Bulls | Indiana | 25 | 27 | 16 | 25 | 26 | 24 |
| Brooklyn Nets | Orlando | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 19 | 25 |
| Orlando Magic | Brooklyn | 19 | 17 | 5 | 16 | 21 | 20 |
| Golden State Warriors | Washington | 16 | 26 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 22 |
| Charlotte Hornets | Philadelphia | 15 | 11 | 12 | 19 | 23 | 13 |
| Washington Wizards | Golden State | 14 | 14 | 17 | 24 | 7 | 8 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Detroit | 10 | 21 | 20 | 9 | 9 | 4 |
| Detroit Pistons | Oklahoma City | 9 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 10 |
| Indiana Pacers | Chicago | 7 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 12 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Houston | 3 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
There may be a lot more green on this map than red, but there really isn’t a lot of really good green. Most are low to mid 20s ranks, which are fine, but there isn’t a lot of 29s and 30s like we really enjoy seeing. You might look more to “units” to target instead of specific spots. For example, both guard spots for BKN are green…..meaning we should be rostering both guards from ORL tonight, if you like that approach. Another one we like to look for is the CHI big men. They have a horrible rebounding differential this year, as evidenced by their SF, PF, and C spots being green as a “unit.” So, look specifically at those spots on your roster to really capitalize on that entire weakness by rostering the IND bigs. Again, this is “if it makes sense.” There may not be anyone worth a damn in those spots. But, on paper, these are great spots to target/exploit when available.
BACK 2 BACKS! – Graphics containing teams we should watch for limited minutes and/or rest days. Maybe hard to see the colors, but yellow is caution, orange is a little more caution, and red is just crazy.
| Team | B2B | 2of3 | 3of4 | 4of5 |
| Atlanta | ||||
| Boston | ||||
| Brooklyn | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Charlotte | ||||
| Chicago | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Cleveland | ||||
| Dallas | Yes | |||
| Denver | Yes | |||
| Detroit | ||||
| Golden State | Yes | |||
| Houston | Yes | |||
| Indiana | Yes | Yes | ||
| L.A. Clippers | Yes | |||
| L.A. Lakers | Yes | |||
| Memphis | ||||
| Miami | ||||
| Milwaukee | ||||
| Minnesota | ||||
| New Orleans | ||||
| New York | ||||
| Oklahoma City | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Orlando | ||||
| Philadelphia | Yes | Yes | ||
| Phoenix | ||||
| Portland | ||||
| Sacramento | Yes | |||
| San Antonio | ||||
| Toronto | ||||
| Utah | ||||
| Washington | Yes |
If you made it this far and appreciate the tips and snippits of advice you are getting, you might want to see/learn more. For information on joining the VIP Insiders, click HERE! You will gain access to:
- Private Slack channel exclusively for VIP Insiders, where you find DFS NBA pro Keith Hall actively answering questions and offering strategy advice.
- Daily player picks on slates with 5 or more games, only excluding Sundays.
- Daily cheatsheets for both FanDuel and DraftKings to help build your lineups.
- Early access to any and all semi-private freerolls on FanDuel or DraftKings offered to the DFS Army.
This Morning Briefing article, again, is not the end-all be-all when it comes to analyzing a slate. This is a first glance to identify targets we may want to dive deeper into. You may, in fact, choose a player in a poor DvP matchup due to other indicators, especially on a short slate night. Don’t overthink this stuff. The concept is to put your players in the best spots to be successful and roll them out. Keith and I will be back later to provide the VIP Insiders with more in-depth player analysis and specific picks for tonight. And, of course, the cheatsheets…… (Remembering, of course, cheatsheets come out on slates 5 games and larger.)
