Hey….I’m nothing if I’m not honest when it comes to this stuff. I post my good scores and I talk smack, so it’s only fair for me to post my bad scores and let others talk smack. This LU from last night is down right comical. For me, March came like a lion and is definitely going out like a lamb.
But, there’s a lesson to be learned here. Variance, as I’ve often said, goes up and down. It swings to and fro. Does putting a LU together like this mean I’m suddenly a bad player? Nope. Does it mean I’m not thinking correctly? Not necessarily. To me, I’m not discouraged because I have enough of an NBA track record that my confidence isn’t shaken one bit. However, what I need to do is look into whether or not these were good choices. They were as of 3pm yesterday. I tried to follow the news, but I wasn’t able to sit at my computer and watch religiously while looking for value to open up. If I missed some things and could have reworked my LU a bit, then that’s on me. If nothing really happened, well, those are just the breaks.
You have to be able to evaluate yourself honestly without losing confidence. For that, you need a track record of success behind you. I may not win GPPs (because I don’t play them except rarely), but I can grind with anyone. You won’t think that when you look at this piece of garbage, though. It’s 50+ points behind the next team in the standings. Safe to say everyone in my leagues took their starters out and rested them because I was just getting completely blown out. I’m not firing my coach. I’m not making my players do bucket runs. In fact, I’m likely just burning the game tape here and moving on. Sometimes you just can’t fix what’s broken from top to bottom. Look at this thing………and certainly laugh if it makes you feel better.
John Wall was in a better spot. Meh. Dragic….meh. His recent play suggested nothing this mediocre and he, too, was in a pristine matchup. Richardson likely suffered some from Wade’s big night, so that’s on me. Booker? C’mon, man. Wiggins was having an awful night before getting cut on the chin or wtf-ever that was. But 4 pts? That’s not even trying. Giannis hurt a lot of us, so that chalk play didn’t matter a ton other than how pricey he is. In his spot, I’d fire him up again instantly. Dieng….meh. A little low for him, too. WCS didn’t do anything. This one I was 2nd guessing and decided to take a little gamble here on Boogie not giving a crap anymore. Asik was a seriously cheap play and even 13 doesn’t kill me there, so it’s not the punishment of the LU by any stretch. The LU just soiled the bed from pretty much top to bottom. Nasty….burn tape……roll on. With that…..
Fall in, soldiers!! This process isn’t intended to take long. It’s a skim, if you will. You are starting your research by quickly glancing over the day’s slate and gathering your early intel. Our goal is to give you a head start on today’s action. Keith and I will be back later with picks and analysis for the slate for our VIP Insiders, as well as provide answers to questions as much as possible in the VIP Slack channels.
Daily Fantasy Players are priced by many factors. Some of the key factors are the teams’ seasonal averages in points scored and the pace at which they play. We can assume if a team is expected to score more points than they usually do, players from that team are in a better than usual spot to succeed. We can also assume if a team is expected to play at a faster pace than usual, their players are in a better than usual spot to succeed.
VEGAS LINES – It honestly all starts here. 200 is the standard for a game in which we can expect fantasy goodness to appear. But, a lot more factors come into play, too. We don’t try to predict blowouts, but red spreads indicate the possibility. I will also add the NBA is changing. Last season, there may have been one game total over 230. This season, we have already seen more than ever. 190 totals are becoming more uncommon than common. We may revisit the magical 200 someday and call it 215. Either way, I am targeting the highest few games on any slate, regardless of the totals. I use this graphic as a guide.
| Road Team | Home Team | Favorite | Spread | Total | Tip-Off | |
| Chicago Bulls (37-37) | at | Houston Rockets (37-38) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 7:00 PM |
| Brooklyn Nets (21-53) | at | Cleveland Cavaliers (52-22) | CLE | -14 | 211.5 | 7:00 PM |
| Orlando Magic (31-43) | at | Indiana Pacers (39-35) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 7:00 PM |
| Denver Nuggets (31-44) | at | New Orleans Pelicans (27-46) | DEN | -6 | 210 | 8:00 PM |
| Los Angeles Clippers (46-27) | at | Oklahoma City Thunder (52-23) | OKC | -8.5 | 214 | 9:30 PM |
| Boston Celtics (43-31) | at | Portland Trail Blazers (39-36) | POR | -3 | 214 | 10:00 PM |
This might be a good place to address this issue because I’ve heard it repeatedly from newer readers. First, thank you for reading. I’m glad you get enough out of this to come back and start your day here. Second, this often happens (the TBD) with late games and injury concerns. As of 8 am CDT, there is no line available for these games. Rather than sit around until noon waiting, I’d rather get as much as I can out to you for both our schedules. This doesn’t in any way render the column useless or I wouldn’t do it. You still have plenty of numbers from which to pull data like pace, DvP, and rest days. And, this article, once again, is only meant to give you a quick scan of the slate. It’s not meant to make decisions for you. The news will change during the day no matter how late I wait for the most current data. To be successful at DFS NBA, you simply must follow every breath of news as it breaks and make the correct adjustments. This column does none of that for you. It only gives you a head start on your own research. Nobody is more pissed off than me about Vegas getting flagged for delay of game here. They mess me up just like you.
POINTED UP! – The teams with green numbers for +/- PPG (Points Per Game) are expected to outperform their seasonal scoring averages per Vegas. Teams with red are expected to under-perform.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Team Total | PPG | Team +/- |
| Orlando Magic | IND | TBD | 101.4 | TBD |
| Houston Rockets | CHI | TBD | 105.9 | TBD |
| Indiana Pacers | ORL | TBD | 101.7 | TBD |
| Chicago Bulls | HOU | TBD | 101.5 | TBD |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | BKN | 112.8 | 103.9 | 8.8 |
| Denver Nuggets | NO | 108 | 102.1 | 5.9 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | BOS | 108.5 | 104.5 | 4 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | LAC | 111.3 | 110 | 1.3 |
| Brooklyn Nets | CLE | 98.8 | 98.8 | 0 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | OKC | 102.8 | 104.5 | -1.8 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | DEN | 102 | 102.7 | -0.7 |
| Boston Celtics | POR | 105.5 | 105.6 | -0.1 |
PACED UP! – Similar to being pointed up, the teams in green should be playing faster than normal while the teams in red should be playing slower. More possessions might mean more opportunity to score points.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Pace | Proj. Pace | Pace +/- |
| Portland Trail Blazers | BOS | 98.1 | 101.1 | 3 |
| Chicago Bulls | HOU | 98.6 | 100.5 | 1.9 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | OKC | 98.2 | 99.5 | 1.3 |
| Orlando Magic | IND | 98 | 99 | 1 |
| Denver Nuggets | NO | 98.2 | 99.2 | 1 |
| Houston Rockets | CHI | 100 | 100.5 | 0.5 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | LAC | 99.4 | 99.5 | 0.1 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | DEN | 99.1 | 99.2 | 0.1 |
| Boston Celtics | POR | 101.1 | 101.1 | 0 |
| Indiana Pacers | ORL | 99.1 | 99 | -0.1 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | BKN | 95.3 | 94.3 | -1 |
| Brooklyn Nets | CLE | 97.1 | 94.3 | -2.8 |
TOTAL FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED & DvP RANKINGS – This graphic provides a quick glance at how strong or weak a defensive team plays overall, as well as against a specific position. We are looking for green numbers and trying to avoid red numbers, and we are looking to roster a player from the OPPONENT’s team in the 2nd column. Example, the CHI SF is, theoretically, in great spot.
| Team Defense | Opponent | TotalFPA | vs. PG | vs. SG | vs. SF | vs. PF | vs. C |
| Houston Rockets | Chicago | 27 | 13 | 23 | 30 | 29 | 19 |
| Chicago Bulls | Houston | 25 | 28 | 15 | 25 | 26 | 24 |
| Brooklyn Nets | Cleveland | 24 | 25 | 25 | 23 | 18 | 25 |
| Denver Nuggets | New Orleans | 23 | 21 | 27 | 19 | 24 | 11 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | Denver | 22 | 19 | 26 | 16 | 19 | 29 |
| Orlando Magic | Indiana | 19 | 16 | 5 | 15 | 23 | 20 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | Boston | 17 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 21 | 26 |
| Boston Celtics | Portland | 12 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 25 | 27 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | L.A. Clippers | 10 | 18 | 21 | 10 | 9 | 4 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | Oklahoma City | 8 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 16 |
| Indiana Pacers | Orlando | 6 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 15 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Brooklyn | 3 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
BACK 2 BACKS! – Graphics containing teams we should watch for limited minutes and/or rest days. Maybe hard to see the colors, but yellow is caution, orange is a little more caution, and red is just crazy.
| Team | B2B | 2of3 | 3of4 | 4of5 |
| Atlanta | ||||
| Boston | ||||
| Brooklyn | Yes | Yes | ||
| Charlotte | ||||
| Chicago | Yes | Yes | ||
| Cleveland | Yes | |||
| Dallas | ||||
| Denver | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Detroit | ||||
| Golden State | Yes | |||
| Houston | Yes | |||
| Indiana | Yes | |||
| L.A. Clippers | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| L.A. Lakers | ||||
| Memphis | ||||
| Miami | ||||
| Milwaukee | ||||
| Minnesota | ||||
| New Orleans | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| New York | ||||
| Oklahoma City | Yes | Yes | ||
| Orlando | Yes | |||
| Philadelphia | ||||
| Phoenix | ||||
| Portland | ||||
| Sacramento | ||||
| San Antonio | ||||
| Toronto | ||||
| Utah | ||||
| Washington | Yes |
**WATCH THOSE RED TEAMS AND THEIR NEWS RELEASES!**
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This Morning Briefing article, again, is not the end-all be-all when it comes to analyzing a slate. This is a first glance to identify targets we may want to dive deeper into. You may, in fact, choose a player in a poor DvP matchup due to other indicators, especially on a short slate night. Don’t overthink this stuff. The concept is to put your players in the best spots to be successful and roll them out. Keith and I will be back later to provide the VIP Insiders with more in-depth player analysis and specific picks for tonight. And, of course, the cheatsheets…… (Remembering, of course, cheatsheets come out on slates 5 games and larger.)
