Long Easter weekend, or so it felt. Saw a lot of #300Clubs posted, which was nice. But, I tried to distance myself as much as possible so I could get revved up for the final stretch of the NBA season. I guess I was going through withdrawal, though, because I found myself with a basketball in one hand and a beer in the other trying to school my nephews in a game of HORSE. I found myself practicing my dribbling skills and practicing my crossover moves on 8 year olds. Let me tell you, there for awhile I was the king! But, it didn’t last long as another set of dads came out and kicked the kiddies off the driveway so we could all play a little hoop. And, I went right back to court jester where I belong. In the meantime, though, a conversation broke out.
I started talking a little about who they follow in NBA since we were in Kansas City. Thunder fans, Bulls fans, even a smattering of Lakers still exist. But, one dad tells me he really likes DFS because you can follow them all and take an interest in the game. Well, long story short, he was aware of the Army. He mentioned he followed us in the NFL season but hasn’t been back because he doesn’t “play heavy enough” in the offseason. I found that to be a neat little coincidence.
I guess my point is to look for ways to bring things up in conversation. I’ve found 3 DFS’ers this NBA season alone in my “friends circles.” One in my poker group…..duh. One at my daughter’s basketball game that happens to be someone we will likely become friends with over the next few years. And, now one in Kansas City on Easter holiday at my brother’s house. (He can thank me later.) They are everywhere and looking for a place to talk DFS. So, talk to them. And…………………introduce them to the DFS Army where they can talk until their heart is content. Which, if they are like us, is like never. Most of us can talk DFS all day long and into the next morning. Ok boys……
Fall in, soldiers!! This process isn’t intended to take long. It’s a skim, if you will. You are starting your research by quickly glancing over the day’s slate and gathering your early intel. Our goal is to give you a head start on today’s action. Keith and I will be back later with picks and analysis for the slate for our VIP Insiders, as well as provide answers to questions as much as possible in the VIP Slack channels.
Daily Fantasy Players are priced by many factors. Some of the key factors are the teams’ seasonal averages in points scored and the pace at which they play. We can assume if a team is expected to score more points than they usually do, players from that team are in a better than usual spot to succeed. We can also assume if a team is expected to play at a faster pace than usual, their players are in a better than usual spot to succeed.
VEGAS LINES – It honestly all starts here. 200 is the standard for a game in which we can expect fantasy goodness to appear. But, a lot more factors come into play, too. We don’t try to predict blowouts, but red spreads indicate the possibility. I will also add the NBA is changing. Last season, there may have been one game total over 230. This season, we have already seen more than ever. 190 totals are becoming more uncommon than common. We may revisit the magical 200 someday and call it 215. Either way, I am targeting the highest few games on any slate, regardless of the totals. I use this graphic as a guide.
| Road Team | Home Team | Favorite | Spread | Total | Tip-Off | |
| Brooklyn Nets (21-51) | at | Miami Heat (42-30) | MIA | -10 | 211 | 7:30 PM |
| Oklahoma City Thunder (51-22) | at | Toronto Raptors (49-23) | OKC | -2.5 | 211 | 7:30 PM |
| New York Knicks (30-44) | at | New Orleans Pelicans (26-46) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 8:00 PM |
| San Antonio Spurs (61-12) | at | Memphis Grizzlies (41-32) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 8:00 PM |
| Phoenix Suns (20-53) | at | Minnesota Timberwolves (24-49) | MIN | -6 | 218 | 8:00 PM |
| Atlanta Hawks (44-30) | at | Chicago Bulls (36-36) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 8:00 PM |
| Los Angeles Lakers (15-57) | at | Utah Jazz (36-37) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 9:00 PM |
| Dallas Mavericks (35-37) | at | Denver Nuggets (31-42) | DEN | -1.5 | 212 | 9:00 PM |
| Sacramento Kings (28-44) | at | Portland Trail Blazers (38-36) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 10:00 PM |
| Boston Celtics (43-30) | at | Los Angeles Clippers (44-27) | LAC | -2.5 | 210 | 10:30 PM |
You know what I am going to say here. Screw you, Vegas.
POINTED UP! – The teams with green numbers for +/- PPG (Points Per Game) are expected to outperform their seasonal scoring averages per Vegas. Teams with red are expected to under-perform.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Team Total | PPG | Team +/- |
| Memphis Grizzlies | SA | TBD | 99.2 | TBD |
| Portland Trail Blazers | SAC | TBD | 104.5 | TBD |
| Chicago Bulls | ATL | TBD | 101.5 | TBD |
| Utah Jazz | LAL | TBD | 97.5 | TBD |
| Atlanta Hawks | CHI | TBD | 102.9 | TBD |
| New York Knicks | NO | TBD | 98.8 | TBD |
| New Orleans Pelicans | NY | TBD | 102.8 | TBD |
| San Antonio Spurs | MEM | TBD | 104.3 | TBD |
| Sacramento Kings | POR | TBD | 106.5 | TBD |
| Los Angeles Lakers | UTA | TBD | 98.1 | TBD |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | PHO | 112 | 102.1 | 9.9 |
| Phoenix Suns | MIN | 106 | 100.4 | 5.6 |
| Denver Nuggets | DAL | 106.8 | 102.5 | 4.3 |
| Dallas Mavericks | DEN | 105.3 | 103.2 | 2.1 |
| Miami Heat | BKN | 110.5 | 99.5 | 11 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | BOS | 106.3 | 104.4 | 1.8 |
| Brooklyn Nets | MIA | 100.5 | 98.7 | 1.8 |
| Toronto Raptors | OKC | 104.3 | 102.9 | 1.3 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | TOR | 106.8 | 110.2 | -3.5 |
| Boston Celtics | LAC | 103.8 | 105.8 | -2.1 |
PACED UP! – Similar to being pointed up, the teams in green should be playing faster than normal while the teams in red should be playing slower. More possessions might mean more opportunity to score points.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Pace | Proj. Pace | Pace +/- |
| Portland Trail Blazers | SAC | 98.1 | 102.3 | 4.2 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | BOS | 98.3 | 101.3 | 3 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | PHO | 97.5 | 99.9 | 2.4 |
| Toronto Raptors | OKC | 95.4 | 96.7 | 1.3 |
| Chicago Bulls | ATL | 98.6 | 99.6 | 1 |
| New York Knicks | NO | 95.8 | 96.8 | 1 |
| Atlanta Hawks | CHI | 99.1 | 99.6 | 0.5 |
| Dallas Mavericks | DEN | 96.9 | 97.2 | 0.3 |
| Boston Celtics | LAC | 101.1 | 101.3 | 0.2 |
| Sacramento Kings | POR | 102.3 | 102.3 | 0 |
| Utah Jazz | LAL | 93.4 | 93.3 | -0.1 |
| Phoenix Suns | MIN | 100.5 | 99.9 | -0.6 |
| Miami Heat | BKN | 95.7 | 94.6 | -1.1 |
| Denver Nuggets | DAL | 98.4 | 97.2 | -1.2 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | SA | 95.7 | 93.8 | -1.9 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | NY | 99.1 | 96.8 | -2.3 |
| San Antonio Spurs | MEM | 96.2 | 93.8 | -2.4 |
| Brooklyn Nets | MIA | 97 | 94.6 | -2.4 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | TOR | 99.4 | 96.7 | -2.7 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | UTA | 98 | 93.3 | -4.7 |
TOTAL FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED & DvP RANKINGS – This graphic provides a quick glance at how strong or weak a defensive team plays overall, as well as against a specific position. We are looking for green numbers and trying to avoid red numbers, and we are looking to roster a player from the OPPONENT’s team in the 2nd column. Example, the MIN SG is, theoretically, in great spot.
| Team Defense | Opponent | TotalFPA | vs. PG | vs. SG | vs. SF | vs. PF | vs. C |
| Los Angeles Lakers | Utah | 30 | 30 | 29 | 28 | 19 | 28 |
| Sacramento Kings | Portland | 28 | 25 | 28 | 21 | 30 | 19 |
| Phoenix Suns | Minnesota | 26 | 29 | 30 | 27 | 15 | 11 |
| Chicago Bulls | Atlanta | 25 | 27 | 16 | 25 | 26 | 24 |
| Brooklyn Nets | Miami | 24 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 18 | 25 |
| Denver Nuggets | Dallas | 23 | 17 | 27 | 20 | 24 | 12 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | New York | 22 | 19 | 26 | 15 | 20 | 29 |
| Dallas Mavericks | Denver | 20 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 27 | 16 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Phoenix | 18 | 23 | 22 | 18 | 11 | 7 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | Sacramento | 17 | 22 | 21 | 3 | 22 | 26 |
| Atlanta Hawks | Chicago | 13 | 5 | 17 | 12 | 13 | 23 |
| Boston Celtics | L.A. Clippers | 12 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 25 | 27 |
| New York Knicks | New Orleans | 11 | 20 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 15 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Toronto | 10 | 21 | 20 | 9 | 9 | 4 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | Boston | 8 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 17 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | San Antonio | 6 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 5 |
| Toronto Raptors | Oklahoma City | 5 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 8 |
| Miami Heat | Brooklyn | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 6 |
| Utah Jazz | L.A. Lakers | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| San Antonio Spurs | Memphis | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
BACK 2 BACKS! – Graphics containing teams we should watch for limited minutes and/or rest days. Maybe hard to see the colors, but yellow is caution, orange is a little more caution, and red is just crazy.
| Team | B2B | 2of3 | 3of4 | 4of5 |
| Atlanta | Yes | Yes | ||
| Boston | Yes | |||
| Brooklyn | Yes | |||
| Charlotte | ||||
| Chicago | Yes | |||
| Cleveland | ||||
| Dallas | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Denver | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Detroit | ||||
| Golden State | ||||
| Houston | ||||
| Indiana | Yes | |||
| L.A. Clippers | Yes | |||
| L.A. Lakers | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Memphis | ||||
| Miami | ||||
| Milwaukee | ||||
| Minnesota | Yes | Yes | ||
| New Orleans | Yes | |||
| New York | Yes | |||
| Oklahoma City | Yes | |||
| Orlando | ||||
| Philadelphia | Yes | |||
| Phoenix | Yes | Yes | ||
| Portland | Yes | |||
| Sacramento | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| San Antonio | Yes | Yes | ||
| Toronto | Yes | Yes | ||
| Utah | Yes | |||
| Washington |
If you made it this far and appreciate the tips and snippits of advice you are getting, you might want to see/learn more. For information on joining the VIP Insiders, click HERE! You will gain access to:
- Private Slack channel exclusively for VIP Insiders, where you find DFS NBA pro Keith Hall actively answering questions and offering strategy advice.
- Daily player picks on slates with 5 or more games, only excluding Sundays.
- Daily cheatsheets for both FanDuel and DraftKings to help build your lineups.
- Early access to any and all semi-private freerolls on FanDuel or DraftKings offered to the DFS Army.
This Morning Briefing article, again, is not the end-all be-all when it comes to analyzing a slate. This is a first glance to identify targets we may want to dive deeper into. You may, in fact, choose a player in a poor DvP matchup due to other indicators, especially on a short slate night. Don’t overthink this stuff. The concept is to put your players in the best spots to be successful and roll them out. Keith and I will be back later to provide the VIP Insiders with more in-depth player analysis and specific picks for tonight. And, of course, the cheatsheets…… (Remembering, of course, cheatsheets come out on slates 5 games and larger.)
