Another morning, another attempt at a dollar. Today is coming out a little later than usual because my youngest son also drew the short end of the stick with an 8am local time basketball game, and I just didn’t want to get out of bed at 6am on a Saturday to get cracking on this bad boy. That said, last night’s huge slate gets the Rick Moranus treatment………….in that is SHRUNK! 4 games today, easy peasey, so here we go…….
Edit: I surprised myself and got this out, except for injury news, faster than I thought. Enjoy!
Fall in, soldiers!! This process isn’t intended to take long. It’s a skim, if you will. You are starting your research by quickly glancing over the day’s slate and gathering your early intel. Our goal is to give you a head start on today’s action. Keith and I will be back later with picks and analysis for the slate for our VIP Insiders, as well as provide answers to questions as much as possible in the VIP Slack channels. (As posted yesterday, there won’t be a full write-up today being a small slate)
Daily Fantasy Players are priced by many factors. Some of the key factors are the teams’ seasonal averages in points scored and the pace at which they play. We can assume if a team is expected to score more points than they usually do, players from that team are in a better than usual spot to succeed. We can also assume if a team is expected to play at a faster pace than usual, their players are in a better than usual spot to succeed. Let’s take a quick look and see if there aren’t any of these spots on today’s slate.
POINTED UP! – The teams with green numbers for +/- PPG (Points Per Game) are expected to outperform their seasonal scoring averages per Vegas. Teams with red are expected to underperform.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Team Total | PPG | Total +/- |
| Washington Wizards | MIA | TBD | 102.7 | TBD |
| Miami Heat | WAS | TBD | 96 | TBD |
| Atlanta Hawks | MIL | 107 | 102.4 | 4.6 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | GS | 108.3 | 104.7 | 3.6 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | NY | 103.3 | 100.4 | 2.8 |
| New York Knicks | MIN | 101.3 | 99.1 | 2.2 |
| Golden State Warriors | LAC | 113.3 | 115.5 | -2.3 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | ATL | 98 | 98.1 | -0.1 |
Let’s be honest here…..no one is telling you to avoid Golden State. But, they are implied to score a few less points than average for whatever that’s worth.
PACED UP! – Similar to being pointed up, the teams in green should be playing faster than normal while the teams in red should be playing slower. More possessions might mean more opportunity to score points.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Pace | Proj. Pace | Pace +/- |
| Los Angeles Clippers | GS | 98.2 | 102.4 | 4.2 |
| Miami Heat | WAS | 94.7 | 97 | 2.3 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | ATL | 96.3 | 97.6 | 1.3 |
| Golden State Warriors | LAC | 102.1 | 102.4 | 0.3 |
| New York Knicks | MIN | 96 | 95 | -1 |
| Atlanta Hawks | MIL | 99.2 | 97.6 | -1.6 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | NY | 96.9 | 95 | -1.9 |
| Washington Wizards | MIA | 100.2 | 97 | -3.2 |
TOTAL FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED & DvP RANKINGS – This graphic provides a quick glance at how strong or weak a defensive team plays overall, as well as against a specific position. We are looking for green numbers and trying to avoid red numbers.
| Team Defense | Opponent | TotalFPA | vs. PG | vs. SG | vs. SF | vs. PF | vs. C |
| Milwaukee Bucks | ATL | 22 | 8 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 16 |
| Washington Wizards | MIA | 19 | 15 | 26 | 28 | 10 | 11 |
| Atlanta Hawks | MIL | 17 | 6 | 21 | 15 | 17 | 24 |
| Golden State Warriors | LAC | 15 | 19 | 7 | 17 | 15 | 17 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | NY | 14 | 23 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 10 |
| New York Knicks | MIN | 11 | 17 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 14 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | GSW | 7 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 20 |
| Miami Heat | WAS | 4 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 2 | 8 |
To read the above graphic, you are looking for green numbers to target. You target them with the team in bold in the 2nd column. For example, SAS PG is in a good matchup because LAL don’t defend the position well. Again, on smaller slates, sometimes you can’t avoid all the bad matchups. Do your research.
Another easy thing to watch is exhaustion control. Many coaches will rest players on the 2nd half of consecutive games. Basketball can take it’s toll and coaches need to keep their players fresh when they can. Players playing back to back games become prime targets for rest or limited minutes, obviously hurting their fantasy production and value to us. We further watch for situations like 3 games in 4 nights or the dreaded 4 games in 5 nights. We also watch traveling teams with particular interest.
BACK 2 BACKS! – Graphic containing teams we should watch for limited minutes and/or rest days.
| Team | B2B | 2of3 | 3of4 | 4of5 |
| Atlanta | Yes | |||
| Boston | ||||
| Brooklyn | ||||
| Charlotte | ||||
| Chicago | Yes | |||
| Cleveland | ||||
| Dallas | ||||
| Denver | ||||
| Detroit | ||||
| Golden State | Yes | |||
| Houston | ||||
| Indiana | ||||
| L.A. Clippers | Yes | |||
| L.A. Lakers | ||||
| Memphis | ||||
| Miami | Yes | |||
| Milwaukee | Yes | |||
| Minnesota | Yes | |||
| New Orleans | ||||
| New York | Yes | |||
| Oklahoma City | ||||
| Orlando | ||||
| Philadelphia | ||||
| Phoenix | ||||
| Portland | ||||
| Sacramento | ||||
| San Antonio | Yes | |||
| Toronto | ||||
| Utah | Yes | |||
| Washington | Yes | Yes | Yes |
I have an Ouchie! – Going forward, we plan to highlight any key injury watches in this spot here. O – Out, D – Doubtful, Q- Questionable, P – Probable, GTD – Game Time Decision
I may come back with some injury news, but I simply haven’t checked yet today.
Again, this is not the end-all be-all when it comes to analyzing a slate. This is a first glance to identify targets we may want to dive deeper into. You may, in fact, choose a player in a poor DvP matchup due to other indicators, especially on a short slate night. Don’t overthink this stuff. The concept is to put your players in the best spots to be successful and roll them out. Keith and I will be back later to provide the VIP Insiders with more in-depth player analysis and specific picks for tonight. And, of course, the cheatsheets! (Remembering, of course, cheatsheets come out on slates 5 games and larger.)
One thing I want you guys to know, since there have been questions. I am the writer, Keith is the player picker. You are getting Keith’s picks and analysis…….not mine (outside of the occasional opinion). I am an NBA noob but have a heavy research mind, am a quick learner, and like to write for you. Keith is a talker and, frankly, doesn’t like writing novels, especially in situations where things change rapidly and undo all the work. He will put out strategy articles, but he is more focused on researching the best player picks for you. With the time this consumes, he needed a little help in getting his thoughts put on paper and communicated to you more effectively. Enter me. We don’t want there being any confusion as to where the picks and analysis is coming from. It’s his mind…..my writing.
Head to the Mess Hall, soldiers. Dismissed!
