Guys, Keith won’t often brag to you about his good nights. Lucky for you, I’m not Kieth. Gather ’round, children, it’s story-time….
Keith is catching his stride in my opinion. If you are not part of our Slack Channels in the DFS Army, you are likely going to miss out. I have talked to the guy daily, and with the tools we have both learned to utilize and the tools we have tweaked and created, Keith’s mind is rounding into serious form. I’m not even hanging my Brass Balls out there when I say it. If you are not a member of the VIP Insiders (see info down below), you are really missing out. His picks and cheatsheets lately have been spot on…..better than I’ve seen yet this year. And, they are a smaller number…..meaning you have a better chance at hitting with them.
Last night, I had a great session for me, the notorious small-baller. I have rounded into my own form, but Keith has given me the confidence to step out of my comfort zone a bit and open up the betting. I have posted three solid sessions in a row, last night being the best. This is supposed to be a small blurb section, but today I’m expanding a bit to show you what I mean….
This is last night’s LU. In with $12, out with $37.10. There are two players not on Keith’s sheet. And, that’s on me. I built a LU I was happy with and went to crosscheck with Keith’s sheet and just didn’t have time to pick up the other two that would have put this LU completely over the top. I missed out on Thaddeus Young (had him but came off him due to salary as I built) and Mirza Teletovic. Both these players fit, and were even a little cheaper than my combo of Jabari Parker and Jared Sullinger. I told Keith earlier in the day that I was having trouble building a LU with Westbrook, Harden, and Greg Monroe in it. So, we built one. I couldn’t get them to fit as easily, but Keith sprayed some viable names at me that would work. When lock approached, I was at a cheer event for my daughter and wanted to work on pivoting to Teletovic but couldn’t remember Thad Young in time to make it before lock……even though he was on the list AND in the write-up. Just to make my LU work, I had to come off Jrue Holiday and down to Donald Sloan. I had Greg Monroe, and had to pivot off him to get some balance elsewhere by using Len in PHX. Once the Len situation got confusing, I had to dump Holiday and come back up at C to Monroe…..which dictated the Sloan play at PG. All this action shot the Thad Young play right out of my mind and I ran out of time.
But, you can hopefully see by paying attention in Slack, utilizing my access to Keith, reading the write-ups, and watching the cheatsheets each day, my knowledge is to a point I can now make these quick pivots in NBA. This from a guy that didn’t know my KU Jayhawks had so many players in the NBA still and Michael Jordan is no longer the GM of the Wizards….lol. You guys need to hop on board because the knowledge in here is pretty tight now. At the very least, consider giving it a try until MLB fires up. At the very least you will learn another sport enough to enjoy it on tv……and maybe make a few bucks along the way. OK, on with the Briefing.
Fall in, soldiers!! This process isn’t intended to take long. It’s a skim, if you will. You are starting your research by quickly glancing over the day’s slate and gathering your early intel. Our goal is to give you a head start on today’s action. Keith and I will be back later with picks and analysis for the slate for our VIP Insiders, as well as provide answers to questions as much as possible in the VIP Slack channels.
Daily Fantasy Players are priced by many factors. Some of the key factors are the teams’ seasonal averages in points scored and the pace at which they play. We can assume if a team is expected to score more points than they usually do, players from that team are in a better than usual spot to succeed. We can also assume if a team is expected to play at a faster pace than usual, their players are in a better than usual spot to succeed.
VEGAS LINES – It honestly all starts here. 200 is the standard for a game in which we can expect fantasy goodness to appear. But, a lot more factors come into play, too. We don’t try to predict blowouts, but red spreads indicate the possibility. I will also add the NBA is changing. Last season, there may have been one game total over 230. This season, we have already seen 4 or more. 190 totals are becoming more uncommon than common. We may revisit the magical 200 someday and call it 215. Either way, I am targeting the highest few games on any slate, regardless of the totals. I use this graphic as a guide.
| Road Team | Home Team | Favorite | Spread | Total | Tip-Off | |
| Charlotte Hornets (29-27) | at | Indiana Pacers (31-26) | IND | -3 | 203.5 | 7:00 PM |
| Washington Wizards (26-30) | at | Philadelphia 76ers (8-49) | WAS | -8.5 | 214 | 7:00 PM |
| Orlando Magic (25-30) | at | New York Knicks (24-35) | NY | -1.5 | 206.5 | 7:30 PM |
| Cleveland Cavaliers (41-15) | at | Toronto Raptors (38-18) | CLE | -1 | 208 | 7:30 PM |
| Chicago Bulls (30-26) | at | Atlanta Hawks (31-27) | TBD | TBD | TBD | 8:00 PM |
| Denver Nuggets (23-35) | at | Dallas Mavericks (30-28) | DAL | -5 | 208.5 | 8:30 PM |
| Los Angeles Clippers (37-20) | at | Sacramento Kings (24-32) | LAC | -2.5 | 219.5 | 10:00 PM |
| Memphis Grizzlies (33-23) | at | Los Angeles Lakers (11-48) | MEM | -4 | 209.5 | 10:30 PM |
POINTED UP! – The teams with green numbers for +/- PPG (Points Per Game) are expected to outperform their seasonal scoring averages per Vegas. Teams with red are expected to under-perform.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Team Total | PPG | Total +/- |
| Atlanta Hawks | CHI | TBD | 102.5 | TBD |
| Chicago Bulls | ATL | TBD | 101.9 | TBD |
| Washington Wizards | PHI | 111.3 | 102.6 | 8.7 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | LAL | 106.8 | 98.6 | 8.2 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | WAS | 102.8 | 95.9 | 6.8 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | SAC | 111 | 104.8 | 6.2 |
| Dallas Mavericks | DEN | 106.8 | 101.4 | 5.3 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | MEM | 102.8 | 97.6 | 5.2 |
| New York Knicks | ORL | 104 | 99.2 | 4.8 |
| Orlando Magic | NY | 102.5 | 100.1 | 2.4 |
| Sacramento Kings | LAC | 108.5 | 107.1 | 1.4 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | TOR | 104.5 | 103.1 | 1.4 |
| Denver Nuggets | DAL | 101.8 | 100.6 | 1.2 |
| Toronto Raptors | CLE | 103.5 | 102.4 | 1.1 |
| Indiana Pacers | CHA | 103.3 | 102.5 | 0.8 |
| Charlotte Hornets | IND | 100.3 | 102 | -1.8 |
PACED UP! – Similar to being pointed up, the teams in green should be playing faster than normal while the teams in red should be playing slower. More possessions might mean more opportunity to score points.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Pace | Proj. Pace | Pace +/- |
| Los Angeles Clippers | SAC | 98.4 | 102.9 | 4.5 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | WAS | 100 | 102.3 | 2.3 |
| Washington Wizards | PHI | 100.3 | 102.3 | 2 |
| Charlotte Hornets | IND | 97.7 | 99.2 | 1.5 |
| Chicago Bulls | ATL | 98.7 | 100.1 | 1.4 |
| Atlanta Hawks | CHI | 99.4 | 100.1 | 0.7 |
| Sacramento Kings | LAC | 102.5 | 102.9 | 0.4 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | LAL | 95.3 | 95.5 | 0.2 |
| Dallas Mavericks | DEN | 96.4 | 96.6 | 0.2 |
| Indiana Pacers | CHA | 99.5 | 99.2 | -0.3 |
| New York Knicks | ORL | 95.9 | 94.8 | -1.1 |
| Denver Nuggets | DAL | 98.2 | 96.6 | -1.6 |
| Orlando Magic | NY | 96.9 | 94.8 | -2.1 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | TOR | 95.2 | 92.9 | -2.3 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | MEM | 98.2 | 95.5 | -2.7 |
| Toronto Raptors | CLE | 95.7 | 92.9 | -2.8 |
TOTAL FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED & DvP RANKINGS – This graphic provides a quick glance at how strong or weak a defensive team plays overall, as well as against a specific position. We are looking for green numbers and trying to avoid red numbers, and we are looking to roster a player from the OPPONENT’s team in the 2nd column. Example, the LAC SG is, theoretically, in great spot.
| Team Defense | Opponent | TotalFPA | vs. PG | vs. SG | vs. SF | vs. PF | vs. C |
| Los Angeles Lakers | Memphis | 30 | 30 | 28 | 29 | 22 | 28 |
| Sacramento Kings | L.A. Clippers | 29 | 22 | 30 | 23 | 29 | 25 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | Washington | 28 | 23 | 16 | 27 | 28 | 30 |
| Chicago Bulls | Atlanta | 25 | 28 | 14 | 24 | 19 | 23 |
| Denver Nuggets | Dallas | 24 | 25 | 27 | 15 | 24 | 22 |
| Charlotte Hornets | Indiana | 20 | 13 | 15 | 22 | 25 | 14 |
| Atlanta Hawks | Chicago | 19 | 9 | 21 | 18 | 18 | 24 |
| Washington Wizards | Philadelphia | 18 | 15 | 24 | 26 | 10 | 13 |
| Orlando Magic | New York | 17 | 21 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 8 |
| Dallas Mavericks | Denver | 15 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 12 |
| New York Knicks | Orlando | 11 | 20 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 16 |
| Indiana Pacers | Charlotte | 10 | 6 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 15 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | Sacramento | 7 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 19 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | L.A. Lakers | 6 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 11 | 1 |
| Toronto Raptors | Cleveland | 5 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 17 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Toronto | 3 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 2 |
Another easy thing to watch is exhaustion control. Many coaches will rest players on the 2nd half of consecutive games. Basketball can take it’s toll and coaches need to keep their players fresh when they can. Players playing back to back games become prime targets for rest or limited minutes, obviously hurting their fantasy production and value to us. We further watch for situations like 3 games in 4 nights or the dreaded 4 games in 5 nights. We also watch traveling teams with particular interest.
BACK 2 BACKS! – Graphic containing teams we should watch for limited minutes and/or rest days. Maybe hard to see the colors, but yellow is caution, orange is a little more caution, and red is just crazy.
| Team | B2B | 2of3 | 3of4 |
| Atlanta | |||
| Boston | |||
| Brooklyn | |||
| Charlotte | Yes | ||
| Chicago | Yes | ||
| Cleveland | Yes | ||
| Dallas | Yes | ||
| Denver | Yes | Yes | |
| Detroit | |||
| Golden State | Yes | ||
| Houston | |||
| Indiana | Yes | ||
| L.A. Clippers | Yes | ||
| L.A. Lakers | Yes | ||
| Memphis | Yes | ||
| Miami | |||
| Milwaukee | |||
| Minnesota | |||
| New Orleans | |||
| New York | Yes | ||
| Oklahoma City | Yes | ||
| Orlando | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Philadelphia | Yes | Yes | |
| Phoenix | |||
| Portland | |||
| Sacramento | Yes | Yes | |
| San Antonio | Yes | ||
| Toronto | Yes | ||
| Utah | |||
| Washington | Yes | Yes |
I apologize for not making the 4of5 column. But, for the record, it’s rare and there was no one in it on today’s slate.
If you made it this far, you might want to see/learn more. For information on joining the VIP Insiders, click HERE! You will gain access to:
- Private Slack channel exclusively for VIP Insiders, where you find DFS NBA pro Keith Hall actively answering questions and offering strategy advice.
- Daily player picks on slates with 5 or more games, only excluding Sundays.
- Daily cheatsheets for both FanDuel and DraftKings to help build your lineups.
- Early access to any and all semi-private freerolls on FanDuel or DraftKings offered to the DFS Army.
Again, this is not the end-all be-all when it comes to analyzing a slate. This is a first glance to identify targets we may want to dive deeper into. You may, in fact, choose a player in a poor DvP matchup due to other indicators, especially on a short slate night. Don’t overthink this stuff. The concept is to put your players in the best spots to be successful and roll them out. Keith and I will be back later to provide the VIP Insiders with more in-depth player analysis and specific picks for tonight. And, of course, the cheatsheets……now with Sample Cash LUs! (Remembering, of course, cheatsheets come out on slates 5 games and larger.)
And, as always, comments, retweets, and Slack opinions are welcome! Head to the Mess Hall……Soldiers dismissed!
