The Geek's Week 15 Daily Fantasy Football Vegas Lines Analysis and Player Picks

Its week 15 and reality is starting to set in that Fantasy Football season is coming to an end. Many of you are either in the thick of your season long fantasy playoffs or possibly out of it by now. Luckily in daily fantasy football every week you get to start with a new team. Week 14 was filled with landmines including early game injuries to Dalton, Yeldon, Rawls, Eifert and Olsen, all of whom where highly drafted. It’s a reminder of the importance of diversification across your lineups.

DFS ARMY NOTES

If you have been a regular reader of this column you may have noticed that we have been adding quite a bit of content this season. When I came up with the DFS Army concept the idea was to set up a place where DFS players can not just get strategy advice and tips from DFS Pros but also interact with and ask questions of those Pros. Originally that Pro was just me but people in our slack forums began asking about other sports like NBA for example. A couple of weeks back we brought in Keith Hall to head up our NBA Insiders membership. Keith finished 4th in the Fanduel Fantasy Basketball Championships last season and does DFS as his full time occupation. He puts together NBA projections and cheat sheets for our NBA Insiders for all the big slate NBA days. He also set up a private channel in our Slack group where members interact with him and bounce ideas and player picks off one another.

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WEEK 15 VEGAS LINES ANALYSIS AND GAME BREAKDOWN

THURSDAY NIGHT

12/17 8:25 ET At St. Louis PK Tampa Bay 41

It’s late in the season and if you have been a regular reader of this column you already know that I generally like to play in the Thursday through Monday Slate but fade the Thursday game. This week’s contest certainly fits the bill with a low 41 o/u. That said there are some playable options here.

The Rams Defense at home is always playable. I don’t hate the idea of stacking up Rams D with Gurley as both will be correlated as far as their fantasy performances. Outside of that pairing this entire game is a fade. The Rams offense is nonexistent outside of Gurley. Their Defense is really good and presents a terrible matchup for the Bucs Offensive weapons.

Elite Plays: Rams Defense

Secondary: Gurley

SATURDAY NIGHT

12/19 8:25 ET NY Jets -3 At Dallas 42.5

**Note This game will be included in the Thurday-Monday slate of games

In the first Saturday night game of the season the Jets travel to Dallas as road favorites in what Vegas sees as a low scoring affair.

Dallas Defense has played admirably this season but their offense under Cassell lacks any sort of firepower. I wouldn’t touch any of them in this spot.

For the Jets I’m not looking for a high scoring affair here. Dallas has been solid at defending the pass this season. That is probably related to the fact that they don’t score much and haven’t forced any shootouts. The Jets running game has been a two headed monster ever since Powell returned from injury a few games back. They aren’t giving Ivory enough touches to justify playing him over similar priced RB’s that are getting greater workloads particularly when Ivory is facing a fairly tough run defense on the road.

Elite Plays: None

Secondary/GPP: None

SUNDAY GAMES

12/20 1:00 ET At Minnesota -5 Chicago 43

Chicago travels to Minnesota as 5 point underdogs in a game Vegas predicts will be low scoring. These divisional games can be tricky to predict because the teams know each other so well particularly in the second meeting of a season.

The Vikings Defense has been solid at stopping the run this season and somewhat vulnerable to the pass. Alshon Jeffrey is the focus of the Bears passing attack and makes for an acceptable play in this spot. The Bears running game has devolved in to an RBBC situation with Forte as the STINO sharing touches with Langford. Langford actually out touched Forte last week further cementing the STINO theorem. I’m not paying stud RB salary for an RBBC situation facing a tough run defense on the road.

The Bears defense has actually been decent against the pass and average against the run this season. “Fine by me! says Adrian Peterson! It’s generally a good idea to play RB’s at home in games their teams are favored in. I don’t need too many reasons to play AP. Outside of Peterson the Vikings simply don’t throw enough passes to propel any of their pass catchers in to cash play territory for me.

Elite Plays: Adrian Peterson

Secondary/GPP: Alshon Jeffrey

12/20 1:00 ET At Jacksonville -3.5 Atlanta 48.5

This is a live one! The struggling Falcons travel south to Jacksonville to take on the red hot Jaguars offense. Last week couldn’t have been more opposite for these teams. The Jags put on a show on Offense while the Falcons got dominated by the Panthers defense.

The Falcons Defense has actually been solid as far as defending the WR position this season while also being terrible against the run. Last week Yeldon got hurt early in the game and Denard Robinson stepped in admirably. If word hits that Yeldon will be out then Robinson makes for a solid play here in an excellent match up. Bortles is locked and loaded with Hurns, Allen Robinson and Julius Thomas all firing on all cylinders right now. All four make for solid plays in this one. It’s worth noting that the Falcons are particularly bad when it comes to defending opposing TE’s this season.

The Falcons have been off for weeks but they have a chance to get right against a Jags Defense that doesn’t scare anyone. Matt Ryan’s salary has finally begun to reflect his ineffectiveness and is now sitting at $5700 on Draftkings. Ryan is playable in a stack with Julio Jones in this game. I would expect him to be very low owned which makes him an interesting tournament option.  Freeman also has an excellent matchup here and should be a safe floor high ceiling play in a game that is expected to be competitive throughout. Freeman is the most expensive RB on Draftkings this week which I’m not sure is justified based on his recent production and projections.

Elite Plays: Bortles, Allen Robinson, Hurns, Denard Robinson (If Yeldon is out), Julio Jones

Secondary/GPP: Matt Ryan, Julius Thomas, Freeman

12/20 1:00 ET Houston Off At Indianapolis Off

As of this moment there is no line to go off of in this game. The QB situations are sketchy for both teams with both starters potentially injured.

The last time Yates started for the Texans they were destroying my beloved Jets. Yates only had eyes for Hopkins targeting him a ton even though he was facing supposed shut down corner Revis. Now they get a similar situation facing supposed shut down corner Vonta Davis. Davis shut down Allen Robinson last week but that was partially because the Jags had so many other weapons and didn’t need to force passes to A Rob. The Texans don’t really have any weapons outside of Hopkins. I haven’t checked salaries on Fanduel yet but if Yates is cheap enough I may consider rolling him out in a stack with Hopkins.

We aren’t sure who will be starting for the Colts but whoever they are won’t be very good. Hass is old and now has some injuries. I’m younger than him and my freaking knee has been killing me for months. Things just don’t heal as fast as they used to for me. If Hasselbeck sits we get another dose of Checkdown Jesus at the helm. Whitehurst isn’t very good either and I can’t see trusting him or his pass catchers.

Elite: Hopkins

Secondary/GPP Only: Yates in a stack with Hopkins

12/20 1:00 ET Kansas City -7.5 At Baltimore 43

The Chiefs travel to Baltimore as heavy favorites in a game Vegas sees as low scoring.

I don’t know who will be starting for the Ravens in this one but whomever he is the one thing I know for sure is that he sucks. I actually see Clausen as much worse than Schaub if thats even possible. To make matters worse, the Chiefs have an excellent defense particularly when it comes to stopping the run. I’d completely avoid the Baltimore offense in this one.

The Chiefs get to take on a Baltimore defense that has been scorched lately through the air. Jeremy Maclin was quiet last week in what was a tough matchup facing a shut down CB. The Ravens have no such player and Maclin should do fine in this situation. In the most interesting spot this week is our old friend Charcandrick West. Most people will look at the stats and see that the Ravens are ranked 5th vs the run and probably avoid playing West. Assuming Spencer Ware is out however I love the idea of getting West for cheap money and potentially low ownership in this spot. I expect the Chiefs to dominate this game and that generally spells good things for the RB position. West will border on an all in play for me this week assuming Ware sits.

Elite Plays: West, KC Defense

Secondary/GPP: Maclin

12/20 1:00 ET At Washington PK Buffalo 44

The Bills travel to Washington to take on the Redskins in a pick em game. One of the primary things I want when targeting a game for DFS purposes is for it to be contested throughout. This one has all the makings of a contested game according to Vegas.

The Bills take on a Washington Defense that does not stand out in any areas. The Tyrod-Watkins-McCoy trio are all elite plays in this game. McCoy’s outlook is best if Karlos Williams sits this one out.

The Redskins take on a Buffalo team that has been vulnerable to the pass. The issue for the Redskins is that they lack talented pass catchers. DeSean Jackson was in and out of the game last week and he is clearly hurt. I don’t trust his health in this spot. The other issue as far as the Bills have been fantastic against the TE position this season and renders Reed as more of a GPP play than anything else.

Elite Plays: Tyrod, Watkins, McCoy

Secondary/GPP: Reed

12/20 1:00 ET At New England -14 Tennessee 47

Beat down alert! The Patriots are huge home favorites taking on a Titans team that doesn’t offer much resistance on either side of the ball. People always want to use offenses that are heavily favored when targeting DFS plays, To me that is not the ideal situation. I could see the Patriots getting off to a big lead then leaning on the run throughout the 4th quarter. Last week Blount got hurt and Bolden seemed to pick up those touches. At worst if Blount is out then the tandem of Bolden and White are both playable in a game that should have a favorable game flow for the Patriots running game.

For Tennessee there isn’t much to like. It’s tough to go in to New England and look good on offense. The Pats Defense is tough and they generally take away your best player which in this case is Delanie Walker.

Elite Plays: Bolden, White – Only if Blount is out, Gronk

Secondary/GPP: Amendola
12/20 1:00 ET Carolina -6 At NY Giants 48.5

The Panthers have been unstoppable this season. This week they are road favorites facing a Giants Defense that is not very good. The Giants bring a couple of decent outside corners to the table but that’s about it. The passes would normally funnel to the TE position in that situation and this game sets up well for Olsen assuming he is healthy. Jon Stewart is in a good spot here as well in a game that projects as a blowout win for the Panthers.

As far as the Giants go I wouldn’t play anyone from their offense. There hasn’t been a single week this season that I can remember where it was a good decision to target players on teams facing the Panthers Defense.

Elite Plays: Newton, Olsen, Stewart, Panthers Defense

Secondary/GPP Ginn

12/20 4:05 ET At Seattle -14.5 Cleveland 43

Here we have that situation I was referring to earlier. A Seattle team that is as heavy of a favorite as there every really is in the NFL. For cash game purposes the Cleveland offense is off the table for me. It’s a tough spot for Manziel.

For Seattle the big question is if they will need to score. Interestingly that has been the case these past few weeks as well and Wilson has consistently beasted. I see no reason to get off that train particularly since the RB situation is not as good as it has been the past few weeks. Doug Baldwin has been delivering these past 4 weeks and he has been more involved in the offense since the departure of Jimmy Graham. He was a popular play last week and he will be popular again this week. I’m not sure what to do with the Seattle running game situation right now. I’ll look for clarity from the coaching staff before I trust any of their RB’s this week in what would have been an all in situation had Rawls been in there.

Elist Plays: Wilson, Baldwin, Seattle Defense

Secondary GPP: Lockett, Barnidge

12/20 4:05 ET Green Bay -3 At Oakland 46.5

The Packers head out to Oakland in a game where they are 3 point road favorites. Oakland’s defense does not stand out in any areas in particular. That said it’s tough to trust the Packers pass catchers this season particularly in cash games. I actually prefer using Lacy in this spot. He is in a 65-35 split with Starks but the packers run a lot of plays and last week Lacy got 25 total touches. I like him again this week in another great spot. His salary remains reasonable as well.

Vegas is expecting a close game here. The Packers defense is generally pretty good. They get plus grades against the run but a slightly negative grade against opposing WR’s.  I don’t see them completely shutting down the Raiders passing attack on the road. Carr has run in to some tough defenses in recent weeks and has held his own. Last week Cooper delivered a zero burger with 8 targets and 0 receptions. That was on the road at Denver. Green Bay is not as good as Denver however and I’d expect Cooper and the Raiders pass catchers to fare better.

Elite Plays: Lacy, Rodgers, Carr, Cooper, Cobb

Secondary/GPP: R. Rodgers, Crabtree

 12/20 4:25 ET At San Diego -1 Miami 45.5

The Dolphins travel to San Diego to take on a Chargers defense that is second only to the Saints as far as their generosity to opposing offensive players. The game is expected to be close and has a middle of the road O/U.

For the Dolphins this is a pretty good spot. We got a good look at the Dolphins offense on Monday Night and they used a run heavy approach with lots of short passes to slot man and #1 target Jarvis Landry. The Chargers have a Cornerback in Verrett that is elite. The good news is that he will be spending his time on the outside covering Parker or Stills. Landry is in a good spot here. The best situation however is for Lamar Miller. The Chargers are at the bottom of the league as far as run defense and Miller should be able to dominate in the situation.

For the Chargers the offense has been difficult to predict. They have been decimated by injuries this season and even though Miami is exploitable via the pass I’m not really sure who Rivers will be throwing to this week. I suppose a desperation play for Malcom Floyd is possible but not for me. At TE, Gates continues to get plenty of targets in the Chargers Offense and he is certainly cash playable in this spot.

Elite Plays: Miller, Landry

Secondary/GPP: Gates, Tannehill

12/20 4:25 ET At Pittsburgh -6 Denver 45

If there was ever a game that had GPP only written all over it this is the one. Denver’s Defense is tops in the league as far as limiting the fantasy output of their competition. Football Outsiders has them ranked #1 overall this season. On the flipside the Steelers have been very opportunistic on Defense the past few weeks and Osweiler has been regressing after an acceptable start.

For the Steelers there isn’t much to say here. This is a tough match up at home facing the league’s toughest defense. A few weeks back I wrote up the same thing about the Steelers-Seahawks game. That week the Steelers wound up putting together a pretty nice game. If we delve deeper looking for some advanced plays in this one I’d consider using Heath Miller as a cash game punt. The two outstanding outside CB’s for Denver are likely to funnel targets inside to Miller. He should offer a decent floor considering his min salary price point on the DFS sites. That said there isn’t a great reason to use offensive players against a Denver Defense that has been outstanding all season outside of the potential for low ownership % GPP plays.

The Denver offense hasn’t looked great the past few weeks as Osweiller has regressed. The Steelers Defense hasn’t been that bad the past few weeks and they have actually been getting turnovers and putting up big numbers.  I’m only comfortable rolling out Thomas and his 14 targets from last week in this spot on the road. Backup QB’s always tend to defer to and target their #1 WR’s often. The Steelers don’t offer much resistance to opposing pass catchers. Their run defense is a bit better and I wouldn’t expect much out of the three headed monster of Hillman, Anderson and Thompson this week.

Elite Plays: DT

GPP Only: Brock, Miller, Brown, Bryant, Ben, Steelers Defense

12/20 4:25 ET Cincinnati -4 At San Francisco 42

SUNDAY NIGHT

12/20 8:30 ET Arizona -3.5 At Philadelphia 50.5

I was really surprised at the line on this game. I would have thought that Arizona would be heavier than -3.5 favorites in this one. I’m thinking that line will move in the next few days in Arizona’s direction. The Eagles offense has not looked impressive at all. Now they face a Cardinals team that is clicking on both sides of the ball. The only Eagle player I would consider using in this spot is Sproles in a GPP only situation. I get that they are at home but they are facing a defense that is top two or three in the league.

Arizona is a difficult team to predict on a week to week basis but they tend to put up big fantasy numbers. In the past few weeks Michael Floyd has been heavily involved in the offense and he is developing in to a cash value play. He has been a boom or bust player in the past but he is developing in to more boom than bust right now. Fitzgerald has been used more in a possession receiver role recently which is limiting his upside. At RB David Johnson looked really good last week. 4.8 YPC and 5 receptions. His price point on Draftkings shot up to $5700. Brutal stuff but he remains playable assuming that Ellington doesn’t come back.

Elite Plays:  Palmer, Floyd, Arizona D, Johnson (If Ellington sits)

Secondary/GPP: John Brown

MONDAY NIGHT HAMMER

12/21 8:30 ET At New Orleans -3 Detroit 50.5

Looking at this game I’m thinking how much it would suck to go in to the Monday Night game without any exposure to it. The line is the most attractive of the week and both of these teams are capable of hanging with one another in a shootout.

One of the nice things about the Lions offense is how predictable they are. They don’t do much via the run and tend to focus on Megatron in the passing game. When Megatron is limited or hurt (which is actually fairly often) they will trot him out as a decoy and focus the offense to Tate.  I went back and checked the stats on this and Tate has quietly been putting up very consistent totals the past few weeks topped off by his huge game last week. Tate is probably the safer cash stack with Stafford in this one. In the running game the Lions don’t have much to offer for DFS purposes. Riddick has been good for 10-15 DK points on a weekly basis but his salary has risen to reflect the higher floor and limited ceiling he has displayed.

The Saints run one of the most unpredictable offenses in the league. They have always spread the ball around and this season has been no different. Last week most people were focused on the two TD’s from Colston when discussing the Saints game. I was more interested in the 7 catch 122 yard day from Willie Snead. Snead and Cooks both make sneaky options to stack with Brees at home for this one. I like the super low price point on Snead but I’d like to see more consistency before I’d trust him in cash games. Still he makes for a high upside value play in this game.

Elite Plays: Brees, Stafford, Tate

Secondary/GPP: Megatron, Cooks, Snead, Watson

Final Notes

That’s it for The Geek’s Vegas Lines Analysis and Player Picks column this week. DFS Army VIP Members can expect a VIP only post on Wednesday night with specific player picks for Fanduel and Draftkings with recommended stacks and ALL IN plays split between Cash, GPP or Both. On Friday I will post some cash optimized lineup samples for both Fanduel and Draftkings. You can use those as is or ideally take the samples and make some swaps to make them your own. If you haven’t joined our premium membership plan you might want to consider doing so now. It’s FREE for new depositing referrals to Draftkings, Fanduel, Draftpot and now Fanpicks or just $40 for the season if you are an existing player on those three sites. New members also get a month of Free access to our NBA Insiders content! Remember to hit me up on Twitter @ffootballgeek or via email [email protected]