The Geek's Week 14 Daily Fantasy Football Vegas Lines Analysis with

Welcome back for week 14 of the Daily Fantasy Football season! I’ve always said DFS is an ever changing adventure and last week was no exception. These past four weeks we have seen some interesting phenomenon across the Daily Fantasy Football landscape. We went from three weeks of extremely low scores to a week where literally everyone went off. Both scenarios make things tricky for DFS purposes.

As an update for those of you that occasionally ask here is my current RotoGrinders profile

GPP STRATEGY

If you are a regular reader of this column you know that I talk a lot about lineup construction methodology specifically as it pertains to cash lineups. In a cash lineup we try to build teams with a high floor. We also generally avoid players that are heavily correlated with one another. GPP contests are a different story. In a GPP we want heavy correlation between players. Most people think that stacking QB and his pass catcher , actually most people think that the key to winning a GPP is picking some obscure player no one is on that happens to go off. That can help assuming it is done with purpose but that is really not the key to winning. Stacking a QB and his pass catcher is one important factor in a GPP lineup because of how correlated those two positions are but it can be taken a few steps further. As an example last week’s slate featured the New Orleans v Carolina game. Cam Newton was the chalk play for the week as we discussed here in Vegas Lines last week. Lets say you wanted to use a Cam stack in a GPP. If Cam is going to go bonkers in a game the best possibility of that is in a game where it is close and high scoring. In order for the game to become high scoring the opposing team will need to keep up with Cam’s team. Therefore it makes sense to pair up the Cam stack with offensive players from the opposing team. For me that meant using Cooks in a situation I would normally avoid (tough Defense with an elite CB1) in a stacked lineup with Cam and Olsen. Logic also dictates that one should avoid playing the Panthers Defense in that situation because if the Defense is putting up a big number then it is draining potential points from said offense plus the chances are that the game is not a shootout. Last week in my GPP stacks I did the following:

Fitzpatrick with Marshall or Decker or Both plus OBJ

Newton with Olsen and Cooks

Roethlisberger with Brown or Martavis or both plus either Hilton or Moncrief.

Winston with Evans, Julio Jones and Freeman.

Bortles with Robinson and Delanie Walker

Remember that the one key piece of data we are certain of when it comes to winning a GPP is that it won’t happen unless most if not all of the players on your lineup explode for above average points totals. Stacking games is one way to help nudge the odds in your favor. This type of strategy is an all or nothing and should be used exclusively for GPP contests.

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DFS ARMY STUFF

I wanted to highlight one DFS Army player and lineup from last week’s slate:

@FFootballGeek thanks for all the insight, textbook #dfsarmy lineup. pic.twitter.com/c4MhurrPrI

— Christopher Jensen (@jensensational) December 8, 2015

Chris put up a score of 251 on Draftkings using a lineup that included pretty much all of our chalk plays from last week. His lineup was very similar to my top lineup from last week.

The best part of Chris’s big cash is what he told me afterward about his method. Chris plays around $100 per week and enters more conservative contests with lower amounts of entrants and better cashing odds. This is his second four figure win of the season. When people share stories like that I know they are doing it right. Chris generally sticks to the player picks I send out to our DFS Army premium members and he tends to have his best week’s the same time as I have mine. Kudos. As a bonus since Chris used his DFS Army logo in his contest and posted the cash on Twitter he gets a DFS Army T-Shirt as the cherry on top of that big cash!

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WEEK 14 VEGAS LINES ANALYSIS

Thursday Night

At Arizona -8 Minnesota 45

It doesn’t get any easier for the Vikings this week. Coming off that beat down by the Seahawks they now travel to Arizona as heavy underdogs in the Thursday night contest.

For the Vikings this is a tough situation. Arizona has an elite defense that plays better at home. The Minnesota passing offense is mediocre in the best situations and they have no shot against an elite AZ secondary. This will allow the Cardinals to focus on stopping AP and the run. Last week I told you to avoid using AP at home vs the elite Seattle Defense. This week you should avoid using him on the road facing Arizona’s elite run defense.

Arizona is coming off a thrashing of the Rams. The trouble with the Cardinals is that you never know which of their WR’s will go off. They are a team that spreads the ball a ton and it’s really not predictable. Fitzgerald is very consistent but he doesn’t produce enough volume to cover his inflated salary levels on the DFS sites. I do like David Johnson in this situation. One of the basic rules of thumb in DFS is to target RB’s at home when their teams are heavy favorites.

Elite Plays: Arizona Defense, David Johnson

Secondary/GPP: None

1:00 ET At Cincinnati -3.5 Pittsburgh 48.5

It didn’t take long to find the chalk game in week 14. Close and high scoring divisional game here. Throw all the DvP numbers out of the window and load up on the players in this one.

The Steelers are far and away the most explosive offense this season. The Ben, Brown, Bryant double or triple stack is in play. Deangelo Williams is in play. All are elite. The difficult decision this week will be deciding which of these guys to use.

The Bengals come in to Pittsburgh playing great football as well. Last week when Eifert was out A.J. Green became the focus of the passing game. Assuming Eifert sits out another one then Green will remain an elite cash and GPP play. If Eifert returns then he gets elite status in this one as well. I’m not going to trust the Bengals RB’s in cash. I expect the game flow in this one to be either a back and forth shootout or a situation where Pittsburgh jumps out to an early lead. Either way I do think the gameflow favors Gio over Hill and I like the fact that it was Hill that beasted last week in a blowout victory. No one will be on Gio which could be useful in GPP’s.  That said since Gio’s usage has been declining heavily using him in this spot is very risky.

Elite Plays: Ben, Brown, Bryant, D Williams, Green

Secondary/GPP: Dalton, Gio

1:00 ET At Philadelphia -2 Buffalo 47

The Eagles are reaking havoc on the AFC East this season having beaten the Jets and Patriots. Now they get their chance against the Bills at home in a game that Vegas sees as close and higher scoring.

The Bills head to Philiadelphia to take on an opportunistic Eagles defense. Opportunistic however does not mean good. The Eagles rank at the bottom of the league in both passing and rushing defense. They stink. Even more interesting here is the revenge narrative with McCoy returning home to a team coached by Chip Kelly, whom McCoy accused of being racist at one point. Knowing Rex like I do I would fully expect him to give McCoy all the opportunities in the world to exact his revenge on his former team. Watkins is another player to watch in this one. He is the definition of boom or bust GPP player in that he tends to get very low numbers of targets but he is so talented that he can often break off for huge scoring plays.

For the Eagles there isn’t much to like about their offense. They suck. Bradford sucks. Jordan Matthews isn’t good. Riley Cooper is a racist. Agholor looks like a bust. Demarco Murray is an awesome player but he sucks in this offense. I wouldn’t touch any of them. Some people will be on Sproles here in what looks like a good spot for him. I’ve never been on the right side of when to play Sproles going all the way back to the New Orleans days. I’m not using him here either.

Elite Plays: McCoy

Secondary/GPP: Tyrod, Watkins, Bills D, Sproles

1:00 ET At Carolina -8 Atlanta 47

This week the Panthers welcome the struggling Falcons to Carolina in a game Vegas sees as a blowout win for the Panthers. I’m really not sure what the problem is with the Falcons but I’m thinking it starts with the fact that they lack an NFL ready WR2, WR3 and TE1. Other than that they should be a good team.

The Falcons get a tough draw in this one. The Panthers are a top defense against both the pass and the run. I mentioned earlier that the Falcons lack alternatives in the passing game to Julio Jones. The Panthers happen to have an elite CB in Norman that has had success against Julio in the past. I’d expect the Falcons to lean on Freeman in the passing game a bit more than usual. Carolina has been good but not great at stopping the run this season and Freeman will actually make for an interesting GPP contrarian play as most people won’t pay his elite salary in a rough road matchup.

The Panthers get to take on a Falcons defense that has fared much better this season vs the pass than the run. I’m not sure that isn’t because the Falcons are awful at stopping the run ranking at the bottom of the league. Teams simply haven’t needed to pass it against them. Jonathan Stewart has an elite matchup here as a home favorite. Newton is very much matchup proof this season and he should have another solid day here. As good as the Falcons have been at defending the WR position, they have been awful at stopping TE’s. The Cam to Olsen stack is in play here. Panthers defense is playable as well.

Elite Plays: Newton, Stewart, Olsen, Freeman

Secondary/GPP Only: Panthers D, Julio

12/13 1:00 ET At Cleveland -1.5 San Francisco 41

The 49ers travel East in back to back weeks this time they get to take on the horrible Cleveland Browns. Vegas is looking for a close and low scoring game.

Last week the 49ers handled the Bears on the road nicely. I think that had more to do with Cutler going in to IDGAF mode than anything else. Now they get a Cleveland team that is a complete mess. Their Defense is at the bottom of the league. The problem is that the 49’ers don’t have any real weapons to exploit a terrible defense. With the low total in this one the only player I’d consider using here would be Draughn as an RB punt. Draughn gets plenty of use in the check down passing game and appears to have a safe floor of around 11 DK points. Not terrible for a player that is facing one of the worst run defenses in the league.

Cleveland gets to take on a terrible 49’ers defensive unit. They will be trotting out Jonny Football at QB for this one. Travis Benjamin and Gary Barnidge are both interesting GPP plays in this game. Barnidge has been money this season when McCown was at QB but his outlook with Manziel is murkier. Benjamin has actually fared well with Manziel in there so far and he has a low floor high ceiling outlook which is ideal for a GPP only play. I don’t hate Duke Johnson in this spot as a money saver at RB. He is often used in the passing game as well as the run game and he has a decent shot to return value on full PPR sites like Draftkings.

Elite Plays: None

Secondary/GPP/Punt: Draughn, Benjamin, Barndige

1:00 ET At Chicago -3 Washington 44

The Redskins travel to Chicago on short rest to face a Bears team that just took a beating from the 49ers. Vegas sees a close game at the lower end of the O/U spectrum.

Jay Cutler went in to IDGAF mode last week delivering an awful performance in what looked like an ideal spot on paper. Now they get another situation that looks ideal. The Redskins don’t stand out on defense in any areas. Forte has been splitting carries with Langford the past few games rendering him the STINO (Starter In Name Only). He isn’t worth paying the elite salary the DFS sites are charging for him. Last week Alshon burned a lot of people by putting up a dud in an ideal spot. This week is a similar great spot for Alshon and his salary is down industry wide.

The Redskins bring an offense that is very difficult to predict for fantasy purposes. Every once in a while Cousins looks great then other times he looks inaccurate and noodle armed. Statistically Chicago’s defense has been pretty good this season but in reality they shouldn’t scare you away from using Redskins offensive players. The only cash play for the Redskins is Reed but in fairness he hasn’t really had explosive games this season. Reed seems to top out in the mid teens which is a touch low for GPP contests. DeSean Jackson on the other hand is more of a high ceiling low floor GPP type player. I wouldn’t touch the Redskin running game.

Elite Plays: Alshon Jeffrey

Secondary/GPP Only: DeSean, Reed

1:00 ET At St. Louis -1 Detroit 41.5

This game features the lowest O/U of the week’s slate. To make matters worse neither of these teams have any bargain bin players worthy of using in a low total game. I’m keeping it brief. Complete fade.

1:00 ET At Kansas City -10.5 San Diego 45.5

The reeling Chargers travel to KC in a game Vegas sees as a blow out win for the Chiefs. KC comes in sporting a top defense against the QB and RB positions. They have been improving week to week on Defense across the board. The Chargers defense is not good at anything in particular and have been at the bottom of the league against the run.

KC gets a home game against a bad team particularly vs the run. Chances are that KC goes run heavy in this game. If they were going to use West in the same way they normally utilize Charles then he would be the automatic all in play of the week. That’s how bad the Chargers run defense has been. If his salary was close to minimum he might have made sense as a punt. It would be harder to use him at his current $5100 price tag on Draftkings. The other aspect of this game that is interesting is Chiefs Defense. Any time a team is at home favored by ten there is a good chance they are going to do well on defense.

For the most part this is a very bad matchup for the Chiefs. No reason to use players from a team expected to score so few points. Avoid.

Elite Plays: Chiefs Defense

1:00 ET At Tampa Bay -4.5 New Orleans 50.5

The New Orleans Effect travels to Tampa this week for a festival of fantasy football goodness. Everywhere the Saints have traveled this season has produced massive fantasy points totals. This is one of the primary games to target this week. The best part about the Saints is that as bad as their Defense is, their Offense can often keep them in the game.

Jameis Winston is in play this week in a matchup made in heaven. Evans is the top dog at WR followed by Jackson. Austin Sefarian Jenkins did little in his debut last week but he had been featured earlier in the season. Doug Martin has a fantastic matchup here as well. The Saints are very generous to opposing RB’s.

The Saints stepped it up last week putting up a solid fight against a Carolina team that looks unstoppable rignt now. Cooks was the primary beneficiary and appears locked in to WR1 targets with the Saints. Last week Coleman stepped in for Snead and put up a decent stat line. I’m not chasing either of those two guys this week. At RB Ingram is in play but Tampa does have a top 10 rushing defense so Ingram is more of a GPP higher risk play.

Elite Plays: Winston, Evans, Martin, Cooks

Secondary GPP Only: Brees, Ingram

1:00 ET At Jacksonville -1 Indianapolis OFF

It looks like Hasselbeck will be at the helm for the Colts next week as they travel to Jacksonville. The Jaguars are a offense that has been producing big fantasy totals over the past two weeks. This looks like a great spot at home in a game Vegas sees as close and contested throughout.

The Colts are coming off a thrashing by the Steelers on both sides of the ball. Hasselback didn’t look very good out there and the Colts have nothing behind him. Still before last week Hass was servicable in every game. If the Colts can keep it close against a Jags Defense that is bottom of the league in every category then this game could produce some solid stat lines. I’m not using Gore at all. He doesn’t get enough run in this offense to justify his price tag.

Jacksonville is in a great spot this week. The one concern is Vonta Davis. Can he limit the damage from Allen Robinson this week? Julius Thomas was a bit of a disappointment last week. I figured some of the Hurns targets would go to Thomas. Instead they just went to Robinson. Thomas is more of a GPP only for me until he shows he is a regular target in this offense. Yeldon has another good matchup and is coming off his best game of the season by far. He has only broken 20 Draftkings Fantasy points twice this season including last week.

Elite Plays: Robinson

Secondary/GPP: Bortles, Hilton, Moncrief, Yeldon

12/13 1:00 ET At NY Jets -7 Tennessee 43.5

The Jets are heavily favored at home this week in a game that they need to win if they want to have any chance of making the playoffs.

The Titans bring an unorthodox offense that features the TE as well as an improving rookie WR in Green-Beckham. This is about the time of the season when rookie WR’s kind of get up to speed. If Revis is out again this week DGB will be worth a look in a GPP flier. Mariotta to Walker has been the stack to use in GPP’s this season for exposure to the Titans.  Walker is a top 3 TE this season at worst and has been matchup proof for the most part. The Jets have been solid at stopping opposing TE’s this season but Gronk feasted on them.

For the Jets the usual suspects are in play. Marshall, Decker, Ivory are all usable. Ivory’s usage percentages have decreased significantly since Powell returned from injury. His salary levels on most of the sites don’t reflect the diminished opportunities yet. This game has a decent possibility to devolve in to a defensive slugfest however with the low totals so it’s an avoid for me outside of a GPP flier or two with Walker,

Elite Plays: None

GPP: Walker
12/13 4:05 ET At Denver -7 Oakland 44

Vegas has Denver heavily favored at home versus the visiting Raiders. Denver has an elite Defense in all areas and it is generally a bad idea to target players on the opposing Offense.

Denver gets what looks like a fairly easy opponent in the Raides. The Raiders are below average defensively across the board. The primary concern I have in this spot is whether the Raiders can make this a competitive game at all. If the games goes as Vegas sees it then the Raiders will not make this competitive and we probably won’t see special performances from Denver’s QB and pass catchers. This one sets up well for Denver Defense however as well as the Denver RB’s. Last week CJ Anderson came out with an ankle injury. That is a situation to monitor. If it looks like Anderson will miss this game then Hillman becomes a playable RB punt.

The Raiders Offense is a complete fade in this spot.

Elite Plays: Denver Defense

12/13 1:00 ET Seattle -9 At Baltimore 44

The Seahawks are coming off two huge offensive output games and heading to Baltimore for some more destruction. When this line first came out it was Seattle -6, now its up to -9 for Seattle. That says something right there.

Lets keep this one simple. Baltimore is falling apart without Flacco at the helm. This is not the type of game they will hold up on. The Baltimore reputation is that they are tough on the run and soft vs the pass. I’m throwing that out of the window. Rawls is an elite play this week in a game where his team is heavily favored.

Elite Plays: Rawls, Seattle Defense

12/13 4:25 ET At Green Bay -8 Dallas 44

Dallas travels to Green Bay as huge underdogs this week in a game where the Packers are massive favorites. Green Bay has been slumping and it took a miracle play for them to steal the win from the Lions last week. I have to believe that at some point they are going to get right but who knows when that will happen.

There isn’t much to like about the Dallas Offense with Cassel under center. They simply can not generate much offense when they are severely limited at the QB position. McFadden has been a solid value play since he took over the full time lead back role for the Cowboys. He still has potential to produce in this match up. The issue is that I just don’t see Dallas doing a whole lot of scoring in this game. They looked awful against the Redskins offensively and pretty much throughout the Cassel tenure. No one else on the Dallas offense is worth consideration for DFS purposes.

For the Packers this could be the get right game. They are heavily favored at home and facing a team that won’t offer much resistance offensively or defensively. Yes I know that Dallas has been pretty decent this season particularly against the pass but they aren’t a particularly talented or scary Defense and Rodgers should have his way with them. That said it’s been extremely difficult to predict which Green Bay players on Offense will shine from week to week. Last week they seemed to bench Lacy in favor of Starks in the running game. Cobb, Adams, Jones and the rest of the pass catchers have been wildly inconsistent as well. I do like the Packers defense here as a low ownership high upside play for both cash and GPP. Outside of Rodgers the rest of the Packers offense is GPP only for me.

Elite Plays: Rodgers, Packers D

Secondary/GPP: McFadden, Cobb

Sunday Night

12/13 8:30 ET New England -3.5 At Houston 44.5

The Patriots are coming off their second loss in a row and headed to Houston to face the Texans re-surging defense. The Texans Defense has awoken with a fury for most of the 2nd half of the season. J.J. Watt is back to being the best defensive player in the league. That said the Patriots never lose three in a row and I expect them to find a way to get it done in Houston even with the depleted roster they are rolling out on a weekly basis.

For Houston it all starts and ends with Hopkins. The issue for me is that the Patriots know this and will likely game plan specifically around stopping him. That’s how it goes later in the season. Teams with just one primary playmaker on offense are susceptible to opposing defenses  figuring it out.  The Patriots have a solid secondary this season particularly when it comes to defending opposing #1 WR’s so this not an ideal spot for Nuk or Hoyer. There is no one else of interest on the Texans offense for DFS purposes.

The Patriots are depleted when it comes to play makers on offense. Last week they featured Amendola, White and Chandler in the passing attack. I would expect more good things from Amendola and Chandler this week. As far as White and the Patriots general running game, who knows. LaFell also saw plenty of targets but his suckitude won out. Lafell reminds me of Darius Heyward Bey a bit. He’s just not very good. That doesn’t mean he won’t get you 20 points on occasion but that often comes due more to opportunity than talent.

Elite Plays: Amendola, Brady, Chandler

Secondary/GPP Only: White

Monday Night Football Line
12/14 8:30 ET At Miami -1 NY Giants 47.5

This week we have a very interesting Monday Night Hammer game where the Giants travel to Miami in a game that looks to be close and high scoring. Both of these teams are allergic to playing defense. The Dolphins are basically a disaster right now. They are firing coaches left and right. Their entire franchise is in disarray. The Giants aren’t much better. They play in the worst division in the league and still can’t distinguish themselves. They have no running game and their entire offense appears to run through OBJ.

For Miami this is as good of a home matchup as they will have all season. The Giants are a wonderful combination of awful defense and potent offense. That forces opposing offenses to keep the pedal to the metal which is great when you consider how bad the Giants D has been. Miami’s primary pass catcher this season has been Jarvis Landry. He remains a bit high priced for my taste on most of the sites. The player that intrigues me more this week is Devonta Parker. He has taken over the X WR position for the Dolphins for the injured Matthews. Parker was a first round pick and I would think that the Dolphins brass would like to give him a chance to show what he’s got and gain some experience with Tannehill. I like him as a money saving punt play with a decent floor. Lamar Miller also has a chance to shine this week against a Giants Defense that is not very good at stopping the run.

Elite Plays: OBJ

Secondary/GPP/Punt: Parker, Tanny, Landry, Miller

Final Notes

That’s it for The Geek’s Vegas Lines Analysis and Player Picks column this week. DFS Army VIP Members can expect a VIP only post on Wednesday night with specific player picks for Fanduel and Draftkings with recommended stacks and ALL IN plays split between Cash, GPP or Both. On Friday I will post some cash optimized lineup samples for both Fanduel and Draftkings. You can use those as is or ideally take the samples and make some swaps to make them your own. If you haven’t joined our premium membership plan you might want to consider doing so now. It’s FREE for new depositing referrals to Draftkings, Fanduel, Draftpot and now Fanpicks or just $40 for the season if you are an existing player on those three sites. New members also get a month of Free access to our NBA Insiders content! Remember to hit me up on Twitter @ffootballgeek or via email [email protected]