Welcome back for another week of Daily Fantasy Football action! We’ve been on fire to start the season here on the blog and even more so with the DFS Army crew! As always if this is your first time reading this please check out my “Intro to the 2015 Vegas Lines Column” article to get an idea of who I am and what we are doing here. Last week ALL IN plays we called out on Allen Robinson, DeAndre Hopkins, Rawls, Freeman, Forsett and Broncos D among others really kicked ass! Week 6 brings even more excitement. Last week the top O/U in a game was 48 points and that was in a projected blow out. This week we have 4 games with O/U’s at 50 or above two of which are projected to be close games. Interestingly after those four games the rest of the week’s slate have O/U’s under 45 points. We also have some interesting injury opportunities the most intriguing being the ACL tear on Jamal Charles and the mild guessing game as far as who will get those touches. More on that in a bit.
Draftkings Suite At the Giants Game
Before moving on I wanted to extend a big thanks to Draftkings for inviting me to watch the Giants game at their MetLife Stadium Luxury suite. It was a great experience! I’m not a Giants fan but I love watching every game. Going to this one was an excuse for me to stack up some Giants players in my lineups this week which worked out really well. One of the things I was looking forward to most was chatting with some of the DFS Pros I figured would be there. I got to chatting with one of the top players in the world that you probably never heard and got a chance to pick his brain a bit about his process. This fellow had been to live championship events in Baseball and NBA at one point earning 5 entries to a single live championship event. He also recalled a time when he accidentally forgot to set his lineup in a Draftkings King of the Hill contest! Crazy! We also chatted about the DFS Army and what this blog has evolved in to over the years. That was probably my favorite part of the experience. This fellow mentioned that he is a private person so I won’t call him out by name here but shout out to the DFS Pro i chatted with at the game! As a bonus it was a pretty awesome game to watch. I went in thinking that the Giants would dominate on both sides of the ball but that wasn’t the case. Giant’s D just isn’t very good this season and the game came down to some last minute Eli Manning heroics. OBJ was having a big day but wound up coming out of the game late with some hammy issues. We’ll see about that as the week progresses.
DFS Army VIP Membership Update
Before I get in to this I always like to share my Rotogrinders profile here. Check it out. You can browse my entry history and see some of the big finishes I talk about here on the blog. The whole reason I started the DFS Army VIP Program this season was because I wanted a way to help new players and casual players learn the techniques used by successful players in constructing lineups and managing their bankroll. I share my complete player list for Fanduel and Draftkings with the group every week including notes on my top plays and what types of contests to use each player type in. It’s been an incredible success so far. The slack chat has taken off and become a place with non-stop discussion of strategy, player picks, injury updates and more. We even have a channel where users are posting promotional contests and freerolls that even I never would have found. I’m using our player updates channel as my primary source for injury updates at this point. The best part is that players that normally would start at DFS as “Fish” are actually winning and turning a profit. These are just a couple of the emails and tweets I got this week:
@FFootballGeek best week EVER! Props to the #dfsarmy thx for the great insight! Can’t wait for next week! pic.twitter.com/qzCfn6imeJ
— btterman (@btterman6) October 13, 2015
Hi Kevin,
@FFootballGeek best score of the year for me! 206 and still have one to play! #DFSarmy more than paid for itself! pic.twitter.com/PEKNjk7Kev
— btterman (@btterman6) October 12, 2015
I started the year with a $200 deposit at Fanduel. My balance entering this week is $1876.26. Thanks for the help.
Jim S
“47% return for me this week on FD… Up 5x my money for the year – Thanks for the insight Kevin “ – Andre C
@FFootballGeekJust wanna say I got 2nd of 250 for $150. I missed out on $250 by 3 points. I also won a little more. Thanks Geek
— Ryan Hartley (@RyanHartley14) October 12, 2015
@FFootballGeek Best lineup of the week, and for the season so far. #dfsarmy pic.twitter.com/meyBzAbzR9
— Eric Watkins (@eric_watkins) October 12, 2015
One cool thing about running a decent sized group of hardcore DFS players is that I can ask for and actually get cool incentives from the big DFS sites for our new members. I’m also doing my best to get you our VIP DFS Army membership for free! Here is what we have going for week 6:
Draftkings – Register for a new Draftkings Account via this link and get:
- A full DFS Army VIP Membership (eBooks, Slack Chat, Lineups and the Geeks Player Picks) For The Balance of the 2015 Season (Or 1/2 off Next Season For Current Army Members) – a $40 Value
- A FREE Ticket to enter this weeks Millionaire Maker Contest ($20 Value)
- A 100% Deposit Match Up to $600
Fanduel – Register For Fanduel Via This Link – YOU MUST USE PROMO CODE: CHIEFST
- A full DFS Army VIP Membership (eBooks, Slack Chat, Lineups and the Geeks Player Picks) For The Balance of the 2015 Season (Or 1/2 off Next Season For Current Army Members) – a $40 Value
- A FREE Ticket to the Fanduel Sunday Million ($25 Value) – You must play in $10 worth of contests this week to get the free entry!
- A Deposit Match of up to $200
Draftpot – Register For a New Draftpot Account Via This Link and Get:
- A full DFS Army VIP Membership (eBooks, Slack Chat, Lineups and the Geeks Player Picks) For The Balance of the 2015 Season (Or 1/2 off Next Season For Current Army Members) – a $40 Value
- A Free Entry in a $10,000 NFL Contest
- Deposit Match of up to $1,000 with an industry leading 8% rakeback
- A chance to play on a site with lots of funding and a ton of overlay! Last week the DFS Army invaded Draftpot and were welcomed with an average of 30% overlay across most of their larger contests! That’s like playing in a GPP with almost 50/50 odds!
For current premium members I added Fanduel and Draftkings to the mix as far as the 1/2 off next season promotion. If you did the Draftpot one for 1/2 and then chose to take advantage of one of the other offers your membership for 2016 will be free!
I’ve Registered a New Account With an Initial Deposit VIA THE ABOVE LINKS – Now What?
Once you’ve registered a new account for one of the three DFS sites above and made your initial deposit you need to email me at [email protected] and let me know the following:
- What site did you register for and what is your screen name there
- Which offer you are taking advantage of – VIP Membership for the rest of 2015 or 1/2 off your 2016 membership
Lineup Construction Tip
In running a DFS group with lots of newer players I get questions all throughout the week on a wide variety of topics. My goal is to get you to focus on whats important. Earlier today I was emailed a question that went like this:
I lost 50% on my entries this week. I’ve noticed that in order to win you need to find the low priced players that go off like McCown and his TE this week. Am I off base?
Obviously finding cheaper players that go off for big totals is a good thing but YES this person is very off base in that they are focusing on the wrong thing. When I explored deeper they had only entered top heavy GPP’s this week. The real answer is that in order to win you need to focus on playing in contests with 50/50 odds. It’s incredibly rare for a newer player with a small bankroll to pull off a win in a massive GPP. The odds for doing so are astronomically long (which actually makes @btterman6 49th out of 575K in the Draftkings 1.5 Million even more impressive BTW). If you want to turn a profit you need to focus on cash games. You need to love playing in cash games. When making lineups you need to be thinking about the players floor first and foremost. Let the multi-entry guys worry about finding the next unknown player that gets 3 receptions for 103 yards and 2 TD’s out of nowhere. We want to focus on consistent players that get lots of targets or touches in games where the match-up is favorable! Eventually the big GPP wins will come but chasing them by making wacky lineups is a recipe for disaster.
NFL Lines For Week 6 – NFL Football Line Week Six
NFL Line 10/15 – 10/19, 2015
| Date & Time | Favorite | Line | Underdog | Total |
| 10/15 8:25 ET | Atlanta | -3 | At New Orleans | 51 |
| 10/18 1:00 ET | Denver | -5 | At Cleveland | 42 |
| 10/18 1:00 ET | Cincinnati | -1 | At Buffalo | 44.5 |
| 10/18 1:00 ET | At Minnesota | -3.5 | Kansas City | 44.5 |
| 10/18 1:00 ET | Houston | -1 | At Jacksonville | 43 |
| 10/18 1:00 ET | At Detroit | -3 | Chicago | 44 |
| 10/18 1:00 ET | At NY Jets | -5.5 | Washington | 41 |
| 10/18 1:00 ET | Arizona | -4 | At Pittsburgh | 45.5 |
| 10/18 1:00 ET | At Tennessee | -2.5 | Miami | 44.5 |
| 10/18 4:05 ET | At Seattle | -6.5 | Carolina | 41.5 |
| 10/18 4:25 ET | At Green Bay | -10 | San Diego | 51 |
| 10/18 4:25 ET | Baltimore | -3 | At San Francisco | 43.5 |
| 10/18 8:30 ET | New England | -8 | At Indianapolis | 55 |
Monday Night Football Line
| 10/19 8:30 ET | At Philadelphia | -3.5 | NY Giants | 50 |
Thursday Night
The New Orleans Offense is a bit trickier to decipher. Willie Snead has been incredibly consistent for New Orleans so far this season putting up between 4 to 6 receptions per game these past four weeks. He seems to have emerged as the #1 WR for New Orleans while still priced like a high risk WR punt. After his week 5 breakout game with 6 receptions for 141 yards everyone will be on him this week in this spot. It’s too juicy to pass up. I don’t really trust anyone else in the Saints offense outside of Brees. Their RB corps is a three headed monster. None of them get the kind of volume I like to see from that positon. CJ Spiller is the literal definition of boom or bust player so far in this offense. In three weeks he has one solid day and two which produced under 5 points. Not my kind of numbers at all. Brandin Cooks had a breakout game last week but it also came on low volume. Just 5 receptions in that shootout in Philly. He has averaged around 5 catches a week which is fine but not for a $5700 salary on Draftkings. He also seems to be an afterthought in the RedZone. Not the type of player I cover in DFS at all.
Elite Plays: Devonta Freeman, Snead, Brees
Secondary/GPP: Hankerson, White, Ingram
Denver -5 At Cleveland 42
Last week for the Broncos – Raiders game I invented a new drinking game. Here’s how it worked – every time Peyton Manning heaves up one of his floaters you try to say the alphabet in full. If you can’t get the whole thing out you have to drink a shot. Suffice it to say when the game was over I was still stone cold sober. When you get dominated by the freaking Raiders defense there is a problem. At this point I’m ready to admit that Peytons arm is completely shot. There’s no zip on his passes anymore. As nice as this match up may look on paper I can’t justify using Peyton at his inflated price. Sanders and DT will remain serviceable this season but there just doesn’t seem to be enough goodness to go around anymore for the Broncos. Their run game is also in shambles at the moment with CJ Anderson looking like a drop in season long leagues.
As far as Cleveland goes there isn’t much to like about this spot. Denver D is one of the best in the league and has been carrying the team so far this season. You can’t pass or run on them. AVIOD!
Elite Plays: None
Secondary GPP: Sanders, DT, Broncos D
Cincinnati -1 At Buffalo 44.5
One of the nice things about a week with multiple high O/U games is that most people will not pay any attention to games like this one. There really aren’t any “cash” or “chalk” plays that stand out here but we do have some potential low owned “GPP” possibilities. Buffalo’s defense has done a nice job of scoring fantasy points this season but they’ve actually been middle of the road as far as limiting yardage to RB’s and WR’s. The usual suspects for Cincinnati including Green, Gio, Dalton and Eifert all have GPP appeal here.
For the Bills I’ve been rolling out T-Mobile weekly this season andI will continue to do so until the DFS sites raise his salary.
**10/14 Update – Word out of Buffalo is that Tyrod is banged up and may be out for a few weeks. EJ Manual is not very good but may work as a minimum salary QB punt play.
Elite Plays: Green
Secondary/GPP: Dalton, Eifert, Gio, T-Mobile
At Minnesota -3.5 Kansas City 44.5
This is another of the lower O/U games on this week’s slate but there is some DFS goodness to be found here. One of the primary ways we exploit the salary cap algorithm is to target backup players thrust in to starting roles before the sites get a chance to reprice their salaries. Unfortunately Fanduel was quick on the draw for this one and priced Charcandrick West at a hearty 6200 salary. Not quite the bargain I was hoping for but still not bad assuming he gets the lionshare of touches. He is a more reasonable 4000 on Draftkings and a ridiculously low $4 on Draftpot (all in!). Moving on this game is interesting in that the player that normally sees 30% of all the offensive touches for Kansas City is out. I expect West and Knile Davis to a lesser extent to absorb some of those touches but not all of them. There is a decent chance that Maclin and Kelce will see an uptick in usage here which is a situation to exploit. Maclin has already been really good these past few weeks. Kelce has all the talent in the world but has been criminally underutilized. A breakout is possible this week.
For Minnesota the Offense runs through Adrian Peterson. He is an every week stud particularly at home. Through the air the only player I even mildly trust in their passing game is Mike Wallace. Charles Johnson is dealing with an injury and sucked before he got hurt. Wallace is priced very low on the major DFS sites and makes for an interesting high floor and ceiling WR punt play at home this week.
Elite Plays: AP, Maclin, C. West
Secondary/GPP: Wallace, Alex Smith, Travis Kelce
Houston -1 At Jacksonville 43
As awful as these two teams seem at first glance both have been producing solid weekly fantasy production. For Jacksonville it’s been the Blake Bortles show all season long. Bortles has been one of the top DFS producers on a $ per point basis and I don’t see why that should change at home this week. Allen Robinson is a legit stud and Alan Hurns has turned out to be pretty good as well.
One thing I like about the Houston offense is that it basically runs through two players exclusively, Foster and Hopkins. I’ve been riding on the Nuk train all season and I’m not getting off just yet. This is also a great spot for Foster as the Jags have one of the worst run defenses in the league as evidenced by the shredding they took from Dougie Fresh Martin last weekend. Look for Foster to explode with fantasy goodness in this spot.
Elite Plays: Hopkins, Foster, Bortles, A-Rob
Secondary/GPP: Hurns, Hoyer, Yeldon if he’s healthy
**Edit Per Rotowire – Bortles sprained his AC joint in his throwing shoulder last week but is expected to play. I’d give a slight downgrade to his pass catchers based on this news.
At Detroit -3 Chicago 44
If you google the term “Hot Mess NFL” the team pages for the Bears and Lions will show up #1 and #1 in the search results. That’s how bad these two teams have been this season. The only thing for this game is the fact that when awful meets awful sometimes great fantasy performances are the result.
Last week Stafford was benched due to ineffectiveness. That’s ugly for sure. Still the Bears Defense is no where near what Arizona is. I could see a bounceback game here and a GPP low ownership play on Megatron. Abdulla may also be worth a GPP flier. Keep in mind that the Chicago Defense has been surprisingly stingy this season.
For Chicago I expect Alshon Jeffrey to return for this one in what looks to be a pretty good spot. Detroit defense hasn’t shown anything so far this season that indicates they should be avoided. Jeffrey, Forte, Bennett and even Cutler are all usable in this spot.
Elite Plays: Megatron, Forte
Secondary/GPP: Jeffrey, Abdullah, Cutler, Bennett
At NY Jets -5.5 Washington 41
Vegas sees the Redskins getting scalped in this game and I tend to agree. I will be avoiding their offense like the plague in this contest.
For the Jets the usual suspects are in play. The Skins have been stingy vs the run and loose vs the pass to start the season. I could see Marshall and Decker doing some early damage. Still game flow could easily go away from them and towards Ivory as the Jets build up a lead in the early going. Still if the Redskins solid run D holds up and their awful secondary plays to form it could be a nice day for Marshall and Decker.
Elite Plays: Marshall, Jets D, Ivory
Secondary/GPP: Decker, Fitzpatrick
Arizona -4 At Pittsburgh 45.5
Last week Vick threw about 5 passes right at the numbers of Chargers CB’s and they dropped every one of them. Enter the most opportunistic defense in the league. The Cardinals CB’s won’t be dropping passes like the Chargers group did last week. Even though the Steelers are at home this week their entire offense is a fade for me. LeVeon is an every week stud but I’m not paying the highest price of the week for a running back going up against a stout run defense.
For the Cardinals its all hands on deck! Palmer, Fitzgerald and The Sheriff John Brown are all playable here. Cardinals Defense is one of 3 or 4 elite plays on Defense this week.
Elite Plays: Arizona Defense, Larry Fitzgerald, Carson Palmer
Secondary/GPP: The Sheriff
At Tennessee -2.5 Miami 44.5
This is another GPP only special for me. There’s nothing particularly compelling about this game or this line. The only somewhat reliable player in the Titans offense is Kendall Wright. Miami’s pass defense has been atrocious so far this season so there is an argument that could be made to use Wright here. I tend to think that teams in which an unpopular head coach and DC get fired will often come out with some passion in the next game. I think there is a better chance (GPP Only) that Miami D has a nice bounce back game in this spot but I’m not playing them.
For Miami the RB situation has also been very ugly to start the season. Lamar Miller was supposed to take the next step and become a bellcow this season. It hasn’t happened yet and now he is on the road facing a stingy Titans defense. Tennessee has a top 10 ranking against the run and pass this season. There are better matchups to exploit and this game has all the makings of a stinker on offense for both squads.
Elite Plays: None
GPP Only: Wright, Landry
At Seattle -6.5 Carolina 41.5
As the season rolls along it pays more and more to listen to what the odds makers are telling us. They are really smart people that exist in an industry with ton’s of money on the line. In this line they are begging us to avoid this game and Carolina in particular. I see no reason not to heed their warning.
Elite Plays: Seattle Defense
At Green Bay -10 San Diego 51
Here we go! 51 point O/U, two offensive powerhouse teams, I love it! Green Bay is deadly at home. One of the things you hope for when using them is that they are playing a team that will force them to keep the pedal to the medal for four quarters. The Chargers should be able to hang in there long enough to make a game of it. This line sets up well for Eddie Lacy and the Packers run game. That said it’s been pretty awful to this point and will be difficult to trust. Cobb, and James Jones are ALL IN plays at WR this week with Lacy more of a GPP contrarian play.
This game script sets up well for Chargers pass catchers. As much as he disappointed me last week I’m probably going back to Keenan Allen again here but with limited exposure. Antonio Gates looked great in his debut and is playable every week. He came in and out of the game a lot but he made the snaps he was in there for count. This game sets up well for Danny Woodhead as well. He is a very sneaky play on all the PPR sites. I expect to see the Chargers in catch up mode for most of the second half here and that is Woodhead time.
Elite Plays: Rodgers, Cobb, Jones, Rivers, Allen, Gates, Woodhead
Secondary/GPP Lacy, Montgomery
Baltimore -3 At San Francisco 43.5
This is another game with some sleeper DFS appeal. Vegas sees a close and fairly low scoring game. Neither one of these teams has a quality defense. Statistically they are two of the worst teams versus the pass this season and neither is one to avoid in the running game.
For San Francisco the most appealing play is probably Carlos Hyde. He is getting a heavy volume of touches these past few games and the return of Reggie Bush didn’t put a dent in his usage last week. Bush only got 1 touch. The only 49er WR that has any DFS appeal is Bolden.
The Ravens offense is interesting here as well. There are rumors that Steve Smith will come back this week. I hope he does so I can fade him and pivot to Aiken. Aiken started off hot last week with 4 catches for 78 yards in the first half. Then he cooled off. Even if Smith plays through the rib injury I doubt he will be any good. He’s a warrior for sure but an old man with broken ribs is not a recipie for NFL success. The running game is tricky for the Ravens as well. Forsett looked great last week but he exited the game with an ankle injury. Even if he comes back I’m not excited about rolling out a shifty RB with a messed up ankle in my DFS lineups.
Elite Plays: Hyde
Secondary/GPP Plays: Aiken, Bolden, Forsett
New England -8 At Indianapolis 55
This is the game we’ve been waiting for! Stack em up! Luck’s shoulder is about the only thing that could potentially put a damper on this fantasy points bonanza of a game. Both offenses are completely in play here.
Last week the Colts featured Ander Johnson over Donte Moncrief. Could that have been a coincidence or a shift in their gameplan? I’m leaning toward coincidence. Moncrief has been fantastic all season and I expect that to continue here. T.Y “Hilton is still the number one WR in this offense and I’m looking for him to have a breakout game here. Gore is also in play although the game flow may not favor him in a game Vegas expects the Colts to be playing from behind in.
The Patriots offense has been unstoppable to start the season and that should continue here. Brady, Edelman, Gronk and Lewis are all elite plays. No need to overthink this game. Target it heavily in you DFS lineups.
Elite Plays: Brady, Gronk, Edelman, Lewis, Luck, Hilton, Moncrief
Secondary/GPP: Gore, Andre Johnson
Monday Night
At Philadelphia -3.5 NY Giants 50
It’s always good to have some players going in the Monday Night game particularly when it projects to be a close and high scoring game. The Eagles offense has been improving each week. In the last game Demarco Murray finally got a heavy workload and delivered fantastic results. Last week he got 20 carries for 83 yards and a TD. He also added 7 receptions for 36 yards. Jordan Matthews hasn’t been all that good to start the season and it’s tough to trust him in this spot but looking at the Eagles WR corps he remains the best play of the bunch.
For the Giants, OBJ exited the game last week with a hamstring issue and is a situation to monitor going forward. If he is healthy he makes for a top play as always. Unfortunately thats about it when it comes to safe plays on the Giants. Randle is hit or miss and their run game is unpredictable at best.
Elite Plays: Murray, Bradford, OBJ
Secondary/GPP: Jordan Matthews, Randle, Manning
Some Final Tidbits:
