The Geek's Week 4 Fanduel & Draftkings Daily Fantasy Football Player Picks and Vegas Lines Analysis

The Geek’s Week 4 Fanduel & Draftkings Daily Fantasy Football Player Picks and Vegas Lines Analysis 

Welcome back for another week of Daily Fantasy Football action.  If you haven’t already done so please take the time to read my “2015 Season Introduction” column which covers a bit about who I am and what we are doing here. It also has links to all of the strategy content and info about how to get a FREE Premium VIP Membership to The Geek’s DFS Army. Week three was one of the highest scoring weeks in DFS that I can remember. We nailed most of the picks in the column and the newsletter highlighting ALL IN plays on players like Davonte Freeman, Larry Fitzgerald, Latavius Murray, Greg Olsen and more. To get an idea of how well it went check out the cash lineup sample I sent out to our VIP DFS Army members last Friday:

The interesting thing about this particular lineup is that I exclusively used what I considered to be “Cash” or “Chalk” Players in it. This brings me to a very important lesson on how to approach lineup construction. Every day I get tweets or emails asking if  “this lineup is good”. My standard response is that any lineup can be used in a GPP no matter how bad it may look to me but I wouldn’t use it in a cash game. I don’t want to be the person that told you to get Alan Hurns out of your GPP lineup the week he goes off for 4 receptions, 140 yards and  2TD’s. The thing is I don’t think its all that important to go overboard looking for wacky players that may go off in your GPP lineups. In a sense you can approach them similar to the way you approach Head to Head contests. In Head to Head contests I’m still looking for high ceiling players but I’m also looking at the floor. In essence unless you are entering many many lineups in the hopes of hitting a 1st place finish in a massive tournament you should approach GPP with an eye on cashing rather then taking down first place. There are many ways to approach DFS lineup construction but I’ve found that over the long haul this method will lead to the high finishes in GPP’s but also allow you manage your bankroll better over the short term.

Dissecting the Cash Lineup:

QB: Carson Palmer was a chalk play for the week. He was at home facing a team that has been awful versus the pass this season. If AZ Defense doesn’t do a bunch of scoring in that game Palmer would have done even better.

RB: Freeman was one of my ALL IN plays for last week. If you follow this blog you know that I love it when an RB is thrust in to a starting role but priced like a backup. This was a no brainer last week yet for some reason Freeman was just 6% drafted.

RB: You may be looking at that lineup thinking Powell seems more like a risky player to use in that spot. The thing is that Powell at $3000 was actually a very safe play. Ivory has a groin injury and although active, figured to at worst cede touches to Powell to avoid aggravating the injury. As it turned out Ivory didn’t play at all and Powell got a full workload. At $3000 salary a 9 point day would have been enough to return cash value and 12 points was good for GPP value. I’ll take a 14.5 out of a $3000 punt any day.

WR Fitzgerald was another chalky ALL IN player week 4 and I like pairing up at least one WR with the QB I use. Brandon Marshall was another player we went all in on last week. Jets at home in a potentially high scoring game made it an easy pick. I took a shot here with A-Rob looking for some of that garbage time scoring in what I expected would be a blow out loss for the Jags.

TE: Gronk is always the chalk play at TE. Very safe for cash games.

Flex: Bell is similar to Gronk in that he is an every week cash play.

D: Seahawks was the safest play week 3 going against a backup QB at home. No brainier.

The thing every one of these players had in common last week was that all had a great combination of high floor and high ceiling for the week. That is what I’m trying to stress here. There is generally no need to reach for wacky off the wall players in GPP’s or H2H contests. Play the solid floor high ceiling players and the wins will come both in H2H and GPP contests. If you want to mix in an oddball pick make sure you limit your exposure and do so with the understanding that you will probably lose your bet.

DFS ARMY VIP Membership Update and Other Tidbits

One of the things I talked about a lot last season in these columns was how the readers and myself would mirror winning and losing weeks. This year with the newsletter that phenomenon is even more prevalent. Here are just a few of the tweets I got from DFS Army members this week:

#DraftKings @FFootballGeek thanks for this beauty. #dfs army pic.twitter.com/FxBjoemUEm

— Christopher Jensen (@jensensational) September 29, 2015

@FFootballGeek Great week. Turned $220 into $697 and change thanks to #dfsarmy pic.twitter.com/1OJuykqor5

— texan0322 (@texan0322) September 29, 2015

Thanks @FFootballGeek I cashed in almost all lineups this weekend, except for 4 h2h’s. Quadrupling my bank roll in the process. #Fanduel

— Nick Josephson (@nickjosephson) September 29, 2015

@FFootballGeek Shout out to DFSARMY for helping me make it a big week! pic.twitter.com/idCqbmOPgl

— spm3485 (@Supertzar85) September 28, 2015

@FFootballGeek Well, we did it again.. a 268 on DK is gonna net me over 2k Proof Positive that the VIP membership is worth every cent!!!

— Matt Austin (@ravenmatt2010) September 28, 2015

@FFootballGeek Just wanted to let you know I’ve tripled my entry fees today on both sites! So pumped, Thanks again for all the great info!

— MattyAbs (@kidscallmedad) September 28, 2015

My inbox is loaded with similar emails as well. One of the things I’ve been most impressed by has been the way players on the DFS Army team interact and help each other out in the slack chat forum. What started as just an idea I had this off-season has evolved in to a team of players with a non-stop stream of discussion about bankroll management and lineup construction methodology. I mention this because if you are thinking about joining the team you should not do so if you are just looking to buy lineups. If you want to learn the methodologies behind successful lineup construction and piggyback on a Rotogrinders top 100 ranked DFS Fantasy Football Pro’s weekly player picks and ALL IN plays then click the following link and find out about joining the team.

**Editors Note** Click Here to find out more about our premium membership program including how to get in there free! You get player picks broken down by contest type, Optimized cash lineup samples and a community of like minded DFS’ers to bounce ideas off and discuss strategies!

Reader Q and A

Hey Kev,

Just want to thank you and the DFS Army for my most successful week yet! Placed 1st in a 9200 person tournament and 1st in a cash double up game. All while posting some of my all time highest scores. Being  DFS army has been a blast. Thank you again.


Now my question is, with a larger bankroll, I know stick to the ratio of cash:GPP, but do I stay in the $2-$5 head to heads and small entry fee GPPs and have a ton of entries? Or do I bump up the entry fees in which I can afford and have less  entries? I’ve never worked with this large of a bankroll lol

Jim 




Hi Jim,

SPECIAL CONTESTS:

Before moving on I wanted to mention a couple of special contests going on this week. Fanduel is finally doing one of their Survivor Contests. These are cool because each week they eliminate the bottom 30% or so of contestants and whittle 50K entrants down to a 5 person live finale group that gets flown out to Vegas with the FDFFC qualifiers and get to participate in all the stuff for that weekend. It’s only $5 per entry and the cool thing is that you get to make lineups for it week after week. Last season I made it to the top 100 in one of these before getting eliminated. I’ll have plenty of entries in this one. Check it out here!

Also as some of you know we’ve been doing really well on Starsdraft this season. The cool thing is that you don’t need to deposit to participate in their account builder and Freeroll contests plus the player pricing and competition there is really soft.  I built an account there last season up to $100 without ever having made a deposit. I actually deposited a bit there this season and have been killing it so far up over 100% on my entries. I spoke to their customer service person and they promised us an exclusive private Freeroll for our new depositing users assuming we can get 100 new players to register there. They will give $5 per new depositing used towards that Freeroll. So far we are at 31. Only players that use our link to register will qualify.

Register For Starsdraft and Help Us Get That Freeroll!


WEEK 4 VEGAS LINES ANALYSIS 

Vegas Lines Analysis

Quick note on the lines this week and how to use the info below. This week is similar to last in that there are not many games that stand out as high scoring shootouts. The highest O/U of the week is 48.5 at San Francisco in a game that projects as a blowout win for the Packers. Normally we like games with 50+ O/U’s for chalky plays. This kind of opens things up as far as the usable player pool for the week. One thing we always look for are RB’s on teams that are big favorites.

The players I’m highlighting below as “Elite Plays” are ones that stand out on paper as solid based on their match-ups in those particular games. In the VIP Newsletter I will break down the players further in to categories including my favorite plays of the week in “Cash”, “GPP”, or “Both”.

Thursday Night

Baltimore -2.5 At Pittsburgh 44 

To Vick or not to Vick that is the question. The answer is probably not to Vick. He looked awful playing for the Jets last season and I’m not sure he will be any better in this spot. Chances are the Steelers will go with a run heavy approach to this game bringing Bell squarely in to RB1 status. I don’t see paying top dollar WR salary for Antonio Brown this week or any week that Big Ben isn’t in there.

Baltimore on the other hand gets a tasty matchip on the road against a Steelers Defense so tissue soft the Charmin toilet paper company has launched a patent infringement law suit against them. These guys actually made Colin Kaepernick look competent a few weeks back! If you choose to play this game Flacco to Triple S is probably the best play. I also like Ravens defense in this spot as Vick is a bit of a turnover machine.

**Note – Rotoworld is reporting that Crockett Gilmore is out this week. That means more targets for Triple S as far as I’m concerned.

Elite Plays: Bell, Triple S, Ravens D
Secondary Plays: Flacco


Sunday Morning


NY Jets -1.5 Miami (At London) 41.5

*Note – This game is being played at 9:30 AM on Sunday Morning and will not be included in most Sunday/Monday slates. First thing to note in this one is even though it’s officially a Miami home game, in reality this is taking place in a neutral stadium. The lines are looking for a close and low scoring game and I tend to agree. The Jets are rightfully a slight favorite in this one and I think Miami will struggle to generate any offense at all. I’m avoiding Miami completely here.

I’m not all that excited about the Jets in this spot either. Miami Defense is pretty good and I don’t really see where in a low scoring affair I would need to use players here. Maybe Bilal Powell if Ivory is out again.

Elite Plays: None
Secondary Plays: None

At Indianapolis -9.5 Jacksonville 47

Last week Andrew Luck woke up and finally delivered a solid fantasy performance. I’d look for that to continue this week against the hapless Jags. The whole crew is playable in this one from Luck to Hilton to Moncrief to Gore. Notice I didn’t mention Andre Johnson? I’m not sure whats going on with him outside of the fact that to the eye he looks old and slow. Moncrief appears to have passed him on the depth chart and has been playing a greater percentage of the snaps. Realistically this game sets up well for Gore in that we have a home team that is heavily favored which is a situation that RB’s can feast on.

For the Jags the one good thing about this game is that they are facing a relatively soft defense. There should be some scoring here in one of the highers O/U games of the week. The Colts have a shut down corner in Vonta Davis and I suspect he will shadow Allen Robinson throughout this one. This sets up Alan Hurns as an interesting WR GPP Punt. TJ Yeldon is also in play here going against a soft defense. I wouldn’t get too excited about him however because I expect a blowout type game which isn’t necessarily what we look for when choosing underdog RB’s.

Elite Plays: Luck, Hilton, Moncrief, Gore
Secondary/GPP: Hurns, Yeldon

At Atlanta -6.5 Houston 46.5

The Falcons are a decent size favorite at home this week against a Texans team that may be getting Arian Foster back. Anytime a team like Atlanta is favored at home its all hands on deck. This week it’s even more so because the O/U on this game is on the high side for the slate of games. Obviously Julio Jones is an every week beast. Houston does not have an answer for him in their secondary. Roddy White has been a forgotten man for the Texans so far this season and I wouldn’t trust him in this spot at all. Our pre-season sleeper Leonard “Mr. Hanky” Hankerson has been targeted more often over the past two days and appears to have passed White on the depth chart. Week 3 superstar Devonta Freeman is also in play here. We love RB’s at home in games their teams are favored in and it looks like he will get the lionshare of touches with Coleman likely out again this week.

The Houston Offense makes for an intriguing DFS contrarian play to target. Atlanta’s never had a great defense and there is a possibility for a higher scoring game then the odds-makers are predicting. Mallett to Hopkins is playable this week in DFS once again. Mallett isn’t very good but he doesn’t need to be great to return value at his deflated cost. I believe he is still at QB minimum salary on Draftkings. I’d also consider rolling out Foster in this one if he comes back and coaches say he will get a full workload.


Elite Plays: Ryan, Jones, Hopkins, Freeman
Secondary/GPP Plays: Foster, Hankerson, Mallet


Carolina -3 At Tampa Bay 40

I’m not really sure what to make of the line on this game. It’s one of the lowest of the week so the natural inclination is to avoid this game completely. Still I can see some areas that may be useful. Last week Newton to Olsen was virtually unstoppable. The Tampa 2 Deep Defense has traditionaly been vulnerable to the TE position. I could see the Newton-Olsen pairing having another solid game. I’m also considering going back to the well with Jonathan Stewart here. His Draftkings price has gone down quite a bit and Tampa is not a good team versus the run.

For Tampa there is some contrarian GPP potential in their offense. Mike Evans started heating up last week and there could be more of the same this week at home. I’ll probably roll out some Evans shares in my GPP lineups and perhaps a Winston-Evans stack or two.

Elite Plays: Cam Newton, Greg Olsen
Secondary/GPP Plays: Jonathan Stewart, Mike Evans

At Buffalo 5.5 NY Giants 47

This is a game I will be targeting heavily in my lineups this week. Buffalo is a home favorite here in a game with one of the higher O/U’s of the week. Lets start with Karlos Williams. The Giants are currently ranked 28th against the run this season and it could get worse for them after this week’s game. All indications are that the Bills will rest McCoy this week leaving Williams as the bell cow back. Yes please! Tyrod Taylor has been a fantasy beast as well to start the season and the DFS sites have been slow to raise his salary. I’m riding the T-Mobile express again this week. As far as the Buffalo pass catchers go it’s been hit or miss so far. Percy Harvin seems to be ahead of Watkins as far as targets and production go but I see that changing from week to week. Buffalo Defense is also playable at home.

For the Giants it’s been a bit of a rough start to the season. Last week we saw Ruben Randle break out for a big game. This week the word is that we may see Cruz back in the mix as well. OBJ is the only pass catcher I trust on the Giants in this game and normally I wouldn’t be very excited to pay top dollar for a pass catcher playing on the road against a Defense that is generally considered tough versus the pass. The interesting thing is Buffalo has actually been really bad versus the pass this season. They are actually ranked 30th at the moment and while I think they are probably better then the numbers say, there may be some validity to these numbers. The Rex Ryan D often involves putting CB’s in man coverage and selling out to rush the QB. To pull this off you need elite CB’s and he had them when Revis and Cromartie were doing their thing for the Jets. Buffalo does not have a Revis level talent at CB and I don’t think there are many corners that can cover OBJ 1 on 1. I like him as a sneaky low ownership GPP play.

Elite Plays: Tyrod Taylor, Karlos Williams
Secondary/GPP Plays: Bills D, OBJ

Oakland -3 At Chicago 44

It’s weird to say this but the Raiders have been beasting this season! Carr, Latavius and Amari Cooper have all been fantastic to start the season. Normally I don’t like it when a West Coast team like the Raiders travels East for a road game. I’m making an exception for this game. The Bears Defense is awful and they literally just traded away their best defender. They have the look of a team that is getting ready to throw in the towel on the season and suck for whatever QB is set to go at the top of the 2016 draft.

For Chicago if there was ever a time for them to turn things around this is it. They are at home facing a below average Raiders defense in what could evolve in to a shootout. There are some mysteries surrounding the Bears offense. As of this writing I’m not sure who the starting QB will be. Alshon Jeffrey’s status is also in the air. I like whichever QB plays for the Bears this week in a stack with Alshon if he plays. Forte is a high usage stud as always. The Raiders have been a league worst team against the TE position as well. Bennett is potentially a sneaky stud here as well.

Elite Plays: Latavius Murray, Matt Forte, Amari Cooper, Bennett
Secondary/GPP Plays: Carr, , Alshon, Cutler/Clausen

Philadelphia -3 At Washington 47.5

This is another intriguing game this week. Both team offenses are in play here. I’m not fully ready to trust Sam Bradford after the get right win against the Jets last weekend but I will play some shares this week. Matthews took the lead for the Eagles last week with Murray resting his injured hammy. I have no idea which RB to trust this week at this moment and unless Murray is inactive again I’ll probably avoid that situation. Washington is pretty good against the run regardless this season ranked 3rd overall.

Cousins looked pretty bad last weekend on the road against the Giants. H regularly underthrew his receivers and missed Reed in the endzone more then once. I think he could play better this week at home. Reed is still fairly cheap on Draftkings and could easily return 4x value there. Garcon’s price went up a bit and is probably more of a GPP only play. He did not get the deep targets or endzone looks last week and therefore I feel that his ceiling is too low for my taste. The Redskins RB situation is also a bit too sketchy to trust in cash games. Is it Morris or Jones? I have no idea so I’m taking a pass.

Elite Plays: Jordan Matthews, Jordan Reed
Secondary/GPP Plays: Sam Bradford 

At Cincinnati -3.5 Kansas City 44.5

After the thrashing by the Packers last Monday night the Chiefs passing defense is now ranked dead last in the league. I don’t like chasing points in DFS but it’s hard not to like AJ Green and the Bengals pass catchers in this spot. Tyler Eifert put up a donut last week but I expect him to bounce back in a big way here. The Chiefs don’t stand out as a particularly tough D versus the TE position. As far as the running game for the Bengals, its in flux right now. It seems that they will play it similar to how the Patriots do with Hill getting the clock killing pound it up the middle work and Gio getting the hurry up and passing down work. I’m not a fan of timeshare situations at all and Hill’s salary is way to high to risk using him in this spot. It’s Gio or bust for me and I’m thinking there are better RB corps to target this week.

For KC one good thing about last weekend was that they finally got their WR’s involved in the game. Sure most of it came in garbage time but at least they finally shed the whole “it’s been 2 seasons since a Chiefs WR scored a TD” storyline when Maclin got in the endzone. The Bengals are pretty good defending the pass and I would not look to roll the dice with Maclin in this spot. It’s Charles or Baby Gronk or bust for me.


Elite Plays: Jamal Charles, Baby Gronk, AJ Green, Eifert, Dalton
Secondary/GPP Play: Gio

At San Diego -7.5 Cleveland 45

The Chargers are heavy favorites at home in a game where they are facing the leagues worst run defense. Normally I’d be all over the Chargers RB’s when the line looks like this. I still have a tough time trusting Gordon in cash games but I do think I’ll roll him out in some GPP lineups. When I think about the Browns, outside of the terrible run defense, one player that comes to mind is Joe Haden. In the past he has been a shutdown corner and much like Revis, the Haden effect was to push more targets to the opposing WR2. In this game the WR1 is probably Keenan Allen and the WR2 that stands to benefit from the Haden effect is probably Stevie Johnson. My one concern is that Amari Cooper literally tore Joe Haden a new one last week so perhaps he isn’t the shut down corner he once was. This renders Keenan Allen as more of a high upside GPP play for me.

On the Cleveland side of the ball there isn’t much to see. They stink. Their WR’s are awful and the RB situation there is an ugly timeshare. Avoid.

Elite Plays: Rivers, Chargers Defense
Secondary/GPP: Keenan Allen, Stevie Johnson, Gordon

Green Bay -8.5 At San Francisco 48.5

Here is the deal. Rodgers and co are on fire to start the season. Their offense has looked unstoppable. Rodgers, Cobb, Jones and Lacy are every week studs and priced accordingly. The only thing that can sometimes slow this group down is game flow and even that wasn’t much of an issue last week. Lets look closer at this particular game. Obviously the 49ers are terrible on both sides of the ball. The question is if they can even make this game competitive. Personally I doubt that they can. This game script sets up well for the Packers rushers but which one should we choose? I think Lacy showed last week that he is healthy and the ankle shouldn’t be an issue moving forward. You have to like him in this spot. Another player worth mentioning is TY Montgomery. The rookie WR filled in for Adams last week when he went down with the ankle injury and should see all those snaps in this one as well. As a bonus he also the Packers return man and gives the outside shot at a special teams TD.

The only 49ers player i’m even mildly interested in for this game is Carlos Hyde. As long as Bush is out Hyde is seeing the lionshare of snaps in the 49er backfield. Assuming he stays in the game after San Francisco gets down by 3 TD’s and goes in to hurry up mode (sometime in the 2nd quarter) he should see plenty of check down cheap yardage. No matter how the game script goes Hyde should have a chance to do some scoring. There is a narrative that running QB’s often shred the Green Bay defense. I’m really not buying it but an argument could be made for Kaepernick in this spot as well.

Elite Plays: Rodgers, Cobb, Jones, Lacy, Hyde
Secondary/GPP Plays – Montgomery, Starks, Kaepernick, Green Bay Defense

At Denver -6.5 Minnesota 42.5

Normally a game like this would set up well for the Broncos run game. We like RB’s at home in games where their teams are favored. The issue for me is that Anderson seems keep getting these in game injuries that halt any momentum he gets. Coach Kubiak called him out on it this week in a presser so perhaps this is the game that CJ Anderson finally breaks out? The Vikings are a middle of the road defense across the board and not a team I’d shy away from on the road.

The Vikings on the other hand are facing a Denver defense that is #1 in the league against the pass. I’d completely avoid all Vikings pass catchers in this one. If a team is going to beat the Broncos they generally will have to do so via the running game. Adrian Peterson is playable in this game even though I wouldn’t consider it a plus matchup.

Elite Plays: Manning, DT, Sanders
Secondary/GPP: Adrian Peterson, CJ Anderson

At Arizona -6.5 St. Louis 42.5

It seems like every game this week has a home team favored by around 7 in a low O/U game. This is another one that should set up well for the Cardinals run game but who to trust? If Ellington comes back all bets are off but if he doesn’t then CJag is once again playable. It feels a bit like chasing points here but Larry Fitzgerald has been money so far this season and I’d expect that trend to continue for this game.

The Rams are a complete avoid on the road facing a top notch defense.

Elite Plays: Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Defense
Secondary/GPP Plays: Palmer, CJag, Brown


At New Orleans -4 Dallas 46.5

The last time New Orleans was at home in a plus match up (Tampa) it was a complete disaster for fantasy and real purposes. Brees got hurt and everyone in DFS that used him got killed. The thing is I’m not sure how much the injury had to do with it. The Saints offense hasn’t looked good for a long while. There isn’t a player on the Saint’s I would trust in cash games at this point. The closest one would be Ingram but his industry salary has been a bit too high for my taste.

This game actually sets up better for Brandon Weeden and the Cowboys offense. Terrance “T-Dubbs” Williams faced shut down CB Desmond Trufant last week. This week he gets some jag that the Saints will trot out. Their Defense is awful if I didn’t already mention that. I like the potential GPP goodness in this one. I think Randle will remain hit or miss throughout this season. He appears firmly in control of 1st and 2nd down work so far but the Cowboys are using Lance Dunbar in obvious passing situations which limits Randle’s upside a bit. If gameflow gets out of hand or the Saints do what Vegas expects and takes a lead in this game it is very possible that Dunbar will get most of the hurry up looks.

Elite Plays: None
Secondary/GPP Plays: Weeden, Randle, Dunbar, Ingram, T-Dubbs, Cooks




At Seattle -9.5 Detroit 43

Detroit has been awful across the board this season but defensively their awfulness stands out the most versus the TE position. They are last in the league and have been carved up in all three games so far by TE’s. Seattle has a player named Jimmy Graham that is considered to be a pretty good TE. You can do the math here. The Detroit running game has been really strange as well this season. Just when we all thought Ameer Abdullah would break out in games where the script seemed to favor his skill set, on comes Theo Riddick to vulture the passing downs role. I don’t trust any of these guys on the road in Seattle. Outside of Graham I really like whatever RB is healthy for Seattle this week. It’s scary not knowing who that will be in for a Monday Night game but if it looks like Lynch will sit again its ALL IN on his replacement Thomas Rawls.

Elite Plays: Jimmy Graham, Seattle Defense, Lynch or Rawls (If Lynch is Out)
Secondary/GPP Plays: Wilson