Welcome back to the Week 3 edition of “Part the Cloud”!
We have a really fun slate to dive into from a wide receiver standpoint. Before we get there, though, let’s head back into the film room, review where we went wrong, and celebrate where the process paid off.
🎥 The Film Room
Courtland Sutton
DK: 0.95x | FD: 0.66x
Sutton caught 3 of 4 targets for 25 yards while Nix locked in on Waddle. Not much to see here. The volume simply wasn’t there for Sutton to pay off.
Adonai Mitchell
DK: 3.0x | FD: 1.7x
Mitchell finished as the No. 1 receiver, although his day could have been even bigger. He caught 6 of 12 — yes, 12! — targets for 63 yards. The important thing to note is that none of those targets came in the red zone. Overall, I thought he was fine. We certainly could have used more production, but the process was solid, and that’s what matters when we evaluate these plays.
DeMario Douglas
DK: 0.5x | FD: 0.27x
I thought the process was going to lead us to gold when Maye’s first pass of the day targeted Pop over the middle for nine yards. I immediately thought, “Here’s the game plan showing itself.” And then… nothing. Douglas received just one additional target for the rest of the game, and that one found the turf. Sometimes the read is right and the results simply aren’t there. Unfortunately, this was one of those weeks.
11 Personnel
Each week, I’ll analyze the slate and highlight at least three receivers I believe are in advantageous spots. I may use several different sources to get there, but Fantasy Points Data is chief among them. So, what does Week 3 have in store for us?
Romeo Doubs
DK: $5,100 — Projected Ownership: 3.14%
FD: $5,800 — Projected Ownership: 3.67%
We have a high-ish total that has ticked up from 45 to 45.5 at Pinnacle as the week has progressed, along with a tight spread. The game opened at 2.5, moved to 3, and has since dropped back to 2.5. Drake Maye loves throwing to outside receivers, sporting roughly a 3:1 ratio so far this season, and Romeo Doubs excels at beating zone coverage. Since 2023, he has been particularly effective against Cover 3 and Cover 4 shells, which are the coverages you will predominantly find from the Jaguars secondary. If we’re specifically looking for weak spots in that secondary, the outside corners have been the most forgiving. That puts Doubs in an interesting spot at a very manageable ownership.
Jacob Cowing
DK: $3,300 — Projected Ownership: 0.14%
FD: $4,700 — Projected Ownership: 0.10%
I love this game, and I think Jacob Cowing finds himself in an interesting spot. The wide receiver position as a whole is in a great spot, while Arizona’s corners have traditionally been plenty forgiving. Small sample size caveats absolutely apply here, but there have been a lot of encouraging things — on a per-play basis — from the trio of Evans, Deebo, and Cowing. Cowing doesn’t need a huge piece of that goodness to flow his way to become viable at this price. At essentially nonexistent ownership, he’s the type of player who can provide the leverage we’re looking for.
Joshua Palmer / Khalil Shakir
DK: $3,500 / $4,800
Projected Ownership: 0.37% / 0.66%
FD: $4,900 / $5,900
Projected Ownership: 5.18% / 6.12%
To understand the Bills passing attack, we have to talk about DJ Moore. If Moore were 100% healthy, he would be a smash play in this spot. He’s not. However, he was able to get in a limited practice Friday, leaving him questionable for the game. If he sits, our options become pretty clear. If he plays, the waters get considerably muddier.
If Moore Sits…
I want Josh Palmer. He would likely take over the bulk of the DJ Moore role at minimal cost, and Palmer is reminding us what a healthy Josh Palmer can do. Shakir would probably become the No. 1 receiving option in a vacuum, and I expect him to have his moments. That said, I do have some apprehension given the Chargers’ use of Zone Match concepts. Zone Match means you initially set up in zone coverage, but when a receiver enters your area, you transition to man coverage. Shakir is a better zone beater. That’s why, if I want to diversify away from my Kincaid shares — or build a stack around him — Palmer is the player I would love to get to.
If Moore Plays…
I will be off Palmer. He’ll still get run, but I don’t think he’ll get enough opportunity to help us. If I’m looking to spread out my Bills exposure in this scenario, I’d largely turn toward Khalil Shakir. I think Moore would want to prove he can give it a go, and the team would likely want to establish him early. Moore is a tough dude. In that regard, DJ Moore would be worth some small exposure, but know that his effectiveness will be dependent upon pain tolerance. That could mean less attention for Shakir initially, with some second-half upside if the game plan shifts. Could that shift extend back to Palmer? Sure. But at that point, we’re getting back into dart-throw territory.
The Accountability Meter
I’ll grade myself on this call based on DJ Moore’s active status.
That context matters when we look back at the process after the slate.
In Summary
These are my favorite low-owned wide receiver plays heading into Week 3.
I’ll continue keeping an eye on the slate for any additional value that presents itself as lock approaches.
If you have questions about the process, these plays, or any other players, my name is TreyJ989 in the channels. Feel free to tag me.
Thanks for reading, and as always…
Let’s make some bold moves this week! ☁️