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DFS NFL Weeks 17-18 DraftKings Milly Maker Review

The Milly Maker is a large Field GPP where the top prize pays out $1,000,000. Read the winning trends that we’ve found by reviewing years of winning lineups!

Dec 24, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets running back Breece Hall (20) carries the ball during the first half against the Washington Commanders at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Week 17 Milly Maker Winning Lineup

Week 17 Points
Lamar Jackson 39.34
Kenneth Walker 16.5
Travis Etienne 28.8
Davante Adams 40.6
Zay Flowers 22.6
Darius Slayton 23.6
George Kittle 5.9
Wan’dale Robinson 19.9
Texans DST 21
Total 218.24

 

Just as we thought it could, the Baltimore/Miami game provided some fireworks. This time it was all Baltimore as they put up 56 against the Dolphins and Lamar + Flowers were the winning team stack that carried DK user Chaddeek to the top of the Leaderboards in Draft Kings Millionaire Maker contest.

Stacking

Lamar Jackson 39.34 FPTS + Zay Flowers 22.6 FPTS. Darius Slayton 23.6 FPTS + Wan’Dale Robinson 19.9 FPTS.

Total Stacking Points:  105.44 FPTS (26.36 FPT Average)

Total Stacking Ownership: 32.95% (8.23% Average)

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$1,000,000 Milly Maker Ownership

Week 17 Ownership
Lamar Jackson 6.28%
Kenneth Walker 1.57%
Travis Etienne 7.65%
Davante Adams 2.56%
Zay Flowers 10.65%
Darius Slayton 12.31%
George Kittle 8.77%
Wandale Robinson 3.71%
Texans DST 6.14%
Total 59.64%

 

The Week 17 winning lineup was very contrarian across the board. I’m surprised Lamar was just above 5% ownership because we were all over him at DFS Army. It’s really rare to see a lineup with no chalk players as this lineup’s chalkiest player was surprisingly Slayton at 12% and Flowers was the only other player with over 10% ownership from the field; The entire lineup was just under 60% ownership at 59.64%.

Top Leverage Plays

Lamar Jackson at 6%

Qb was pretty spread out across the board but Lamar was still less owned than guys like Hurts and Purdy who was 15% owned and he outscored the 2nd highest scoring QB by 14 points.

Davante Adams at 2%

Adams was the highest scoring player on the entire slate and was only 2% owned. Furthermore, he was only $7400 so was great leverage off of everyone higher priced.

Texans DST at 6%

Highest scoring DST on the slate and leverage off the Broncos and Raiders who scored 9 and 1, respectively.

Wan’Dale Robinson at 3%

Value play who scores 19.9 points and is only 3% owned.

Pricing and Value from the Milly Maker Contest

Week 17 Pricing FPTS per Dollar
Lamar Jackson $7,700 5.10X
Kenneth Walker $6,100 2.70X
Travis Etienne $7,200 4X
Davante Adams $7,400 5.48X
Zay Flowers $5,600 4.03X
Darius Slayton $3,400 6.94X
George Kittle $5,600 1.05X
Wandale Robinson $4,000 4.97X
Texans DST $3,000 7X
Total $50,000 4.36X

 

What was most impressive about this build is 3 players above 7K which can be quite difficult to pull off, but by hitting on value plays like Slayton, Wan’Dale, and the Texans DST, this lineup found some really good dirt-cheap value. Most Milly Maker winning lineups feature about 1-2 players that pay off 6x their salary and this lineup had 2 with Slayton at 6.94X and the Texans at 7X.

Ceiling

After one high scoring Week in Week 16 when the winning score was 249 points, scoring was down again in Week 17 with only 218 points winning the Milly Maker contest.

 

Week 18 Milly Maker Winning Lineup

On to a wild week 18. If you played this week, you’re probably a real sicko. (As am I) I love the puzzle of Week 18 as we navigate through all the playoff scenarios and try to guess who will get the bulk of the work on each time. There are so many ways it can go which was obviously evident when Jordan Mason was projected for 30% ownership and then Elijah Mitchell out touched him in carries. That said, let’s take a look at what took it down!

Week 18 Points
Nick Mullens 25.64
James Conner 33.4
Breece Hall 32
Ceedee Lamb 35.5
Darius Slayton 17.2
Justin Jefferson 39
Johnny Mundt 10.8
Michael Wilson 15.5
Giants DST 17
Total 226.04

Stacking

If you’re a DFS Army Subscriber and followed the Coach’s Cheat sheets and Domination Station, (Optimizer) you probably did quite well by playing Nick Mullens and Justin Jefferson stacks. In addition, Geek and other DFS Army staff were heavy on James Conner, who was also stacked in the winning build with Michael Wilson. This winning lineup featured the rare 3 team stacks with Mullens + 2 Pass Catchers, Conner + Wilson, and Slayton + Giants DST.

Nick Mullens 25.64 FPTS + Justin Jefferson 39 FPTS + Johnny Mundt 10.8 FPTS

James Conner 33.4 FPTS + Michael Wilson 15.5 FPTS.

Darius Slayton 17.2 FPTS + Giants DST 17 FPTS

Total Stacking Points: 158.54 FPTS (22.6 FPT Average)

Total Stacking Ownership:  109.73% (12.15.67% Average)

$1,000,000 Milly Maker Ownership

Week 18 Ownership
Nick Mullens 14.80%
James Conner 30.01%
Breece Hall 5.70%
Ceedee Lamb 32.04%
Darius Slayton 14.49%
Justin Jefferson 28.02%
Johnny Mundt 12.24%
Michael Wilson 3.14%
Giants DST 7.03%
Total 147.47%

 

Week 18 was the exact opposite of Week 17 when we had a contrarian winning lineup of 59%. What we had here was a chalk smash across the board with the stacks and the one-off plays. 147% total Team Ownership was the highest we’ve seen since Week 13 when the winning lineup was 159%.

Top Leverage Plays

Breece Hall at 5.70%

Despite a chalky week, there were a few leverage plays and none bigger than Breece Hall at 5% ownership with a 32 FPT performance.

Michael Wilson at 3.14%

Michael Wilson was incredible leverage at 7X his salary and only 3% field ownership.

Giants DST at 7.03%

Giants DST were the pay down Defense that paid off big time with 17 points and 93% of the field didn’t play them. Great leverage.

Pricing and Value from the Milly Maker Contest

Week 18 Pricing FPTS per Dollar
Nick Mullens $5,100 5.02X
James Conner $6,100 5.47X
Breece Hall $7,200 4.44X
Ceedee Lamb $9,300 3.81X
Darius Slayton $4,000 4.3X
Justin Jefferson $8,500 4.58X
Johnny Mundt $3,000 3.6X
Michael Wilson $4,400 3.52X
Giants DST $2,300 7.39X
Total $49,900 4.52X

 

In a week when many Starters sat on the bench because they had nothing to play for in regard to playing seeding, you just knew there was going to be tons of value on the slate that would allow for multiple high-priced studs to land in the winning Milly Maker Lineup – assuming they smashed of course. That’s exactly what happened as Both $9300 Lamb and $8500 Jefferson smashed and made their way into the winning lineup thanks to great value plays like Slayton, Wilson, Mundt, Mullens, and Giants DST keeping pace for tournament winning value. This lineup had 3 players above 5X and 1 above 7X with Giants DST hitting 7.39X their salary.

One thing to keep in mind going forward is that when there is extreme value on a slate, that 1-2 players above $8,000 Salary is far more likely to be in large field GPP Winning lineups.

Ceiling

Again, we saw a low scoring Milly Maker winning lineup which has been the trend across the season. 226 Total points brought the seasonal average to 238 points. For back-to-back years, we’ve seen a season with an average score of 240 or less; The average score was 240.8 points in the 2022-23 Season.

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