UFC Fight Night DraftKings Picks Preview Dern Hill

UFC Fight Night DraftKings Picks Preview Dern Hill

 

UFC Fight Night DraftKings Picks Preview Dern Hill

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Mackenzie Dern $9100 vs. Angela Hill $7100

Many of us are comparing Dern to Kron Gracie, who lost to Jourdain as his primary Jiu-Jitsu approach (same as dern). He did get destroyed, but I don’t think this is the same situation, and we shouldn’t overreact because of recency bias. However, at a closer look, we can see that she is not just a grappler. She has decent striking and has won several decisions across her career. Her striking numbers will likely range from 60-80 in a decision win. For a Draftkings play, she will have a safe floor and will likely get over 100 with a finish or in a decision. While her striking is not considered elite, it is good enough to balance her approach. She has never been finished and is fighting a striker in Hill who doesn’t show a lot of power, to begin with.

On the Hillside, she is a striker, and long, she will try to stay at range here. If Dern does not close the space, Hill will destroy her in a 5 round decision. The over 4.5 is 150, but it will be all striking without much wrestling. Although this could go to the ground, Ctrl time could be accumulated for either fighter. I think the fight is almost ALL IN with a lean toward Dern.

The pick is Dern, and I will put a little bit on the Dern submission R1 at +750.

 

UFC Fight Night DraftKings Pick: Dern $9100

UFC Fight Night Betting: Dern Submission R1 +750

UFC Fight Night DraftKings Picks Preview Dern Hill

Anthony Hernandez $9400 vs. Edmen Shahbazyan $6800

If you want to talk about a high-ceiling DraftKings play, look no further than Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez. He has scored 120, 117, 94, and 134 in his last four wins. He is a TD machine and can accumulate a ton of volume and score well in a decision. However, one thing to consider is that Fluffy has a chin that is in question. Rightfully so, he has been finished in both of his losses, including a R1 TKO to Holland. Nevertheless, he has fought good competition, and I look for him to win convincingly in this spot.

Shahbazyan is a dog worth a shot, as he was an R1 KO monster earlier in his career. However, he has gone 1-3 in his last four and appears to be getting fed in this spot. Everyone knows I do not like the 6k guys, but I will have a bit of this as he will be optimal with his puncher’s chance.

UFC Vegas 72 DraftKings Pick: Hernandez $9400

UFC Vegas 72 Betting: Over 1.5 +125

Michael Johnson $7500 vs. Diego Ferreira $8700

Michael Johnson is a dog but has beat fighters like Diakese and Dustin Poirier. He went three rounds with Khabib and finished Alan Patrick Also, he has fought some of the best, went three rounds with Khabib before getting finished and beat Dustin Porier earlier in his career. He is fighting a favorite in Ferreira, who has lost three straight fights, with two being finishes. While Diego has fought good guys, it doesn’t appear he has beaten anyone.

Therefore, the value is on the dog here, but both are coming in with good scoring ceilings.

UFC Fight Night DraftKings Pick: Johnson $7500

UFC Fight Night Betting: Johnson +400 Decision

Dog or Pass

Illir Latifi $7200 vs. Rodrigo Nascimento $9000

Neither fighter has a history of scoring well on DraftKings, and neither has a very good pace. I am looking at the fight, and neither fighter has overly credible wins, and their DK scores stink. Nascimento will need a submission to get a finish, but I don’t see him doing that against Latifi. The only idea I have where this would hit is Latifi hitting the R1 KO. It looks like the O/U is set at 1.5, so let’s goo!!!!

Given that information, I am going to fade the fight and put something down on the fight to go to a decision.

Other Picks

• Emily Ducote $7600 vs. Lupita Godinez $8600
  • Ducote $7600
• Andre Fialho $6900 vs. Joaquin Buckley $9300
  • Buckley $9300
• Maheshate $7400 vs. Viachheslav Borshchev $8800
  • Maheshate $7400
• Karolina Kowalkiewicz $8900 vs. Vanessa Demopoulos $7700
  • Kowalkiewicz $8900
• Orion Cosce $8400 vs. Gilbert Urbina $7800
  • Gilbert Urbina $7800
• Chase Hooper $7900 vs. Nick Fiore $8300
  • Hooper $7900
• Takashi Sato $8200 vs. Themba Gorimbo $8000
  • Gorimbo $8000
• Victoria Leonardo $6500 vs. Natalia Silva $9700
  • Silva $9700

 

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Reference:

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