UFC 288 DraftKings Picks Preview Cejudo Sterling

UFC 288 DraftKings Picks Preview Cejudo Sterling

UFC 288 DraftKings Picks Preview Cejudo Sterling

 

Dog Pound Parlay 

• Jandiroba +115
• Gracie +150

+437

UFC 288 DraftKings Picks Preview Cejudo Sterling

Favorite Fighters

• Cejudo $8100
• Muhammad $8000
• Evloev $9400

Two Dogs Worth a Second Look

• Gracie $7600
• Holmes $7300

Dog Pound Parlay 

• Padilla +130
• Cowan +135

+440

 

 

UFC 288 DraftKings Picks Preview Cejudo Sterling

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Henry Cejudo $8100 vs. Aljamain Sterling $8100

The line to Impact Lean: Over 4.5 -150

This is a fight I have been anticipating since it was announced. A ton of respect for the skills of both fighters, as they are two of the best to do it in their weight class. The biggest question in this fight is what Cejudo will look like after a three-year layoff. I put him as similar to Jon Jones in that a ;ayoff will only make him better. On that note, Cejudo has not sat on the couch during his time off. Instead, he has studied the game and coached high-level fighters, including a pre-fight consultation with Jon Jones before his most recent win against Ciryl Gane. As far as a DraftKings play, Cejudo consistently scores over 100 pts and has a very high ceiling with his volume over a five-round fight. Therefore, Cejudo is an excellent play on DraftKings as he is an elite talent with high-volume wrestling.

On the Sterling side, a technical guy pushes a pace early. However, I think he may change the game plan with Cejudo out of respect for his wrestling. Sterling has been running through the division since his loss to Moraes in 2017. I think he will land strikes, but I don’t see him landing a submission against Cejudo. That said, Sterling has scored as high as 151 on DK and will hit his ceiling if he can pull off a win against Cejudo due to the amount of volume he will need to win. This fight goes to Decision; the volume will make it a core play.

I am going to bite the bullet and go with my gut. Triple C for the win!!!! Not a betting spot, but this is my pick.

 

UFC Vegas 72 DraftKings Pick: Cejudo $8100 (field on Sterling)

UFC Vegas 72 Betting: Over 4.5 -150

UFC 288 DraftKings Picks Preview Cejudo Sterling

Belal Muhammad $8000 vs. Gilbert Burns $8200

The line to Impact Lean: -135 to end in Decision

Alright, if you have been following the sport and have an appreciation for two well-rounded fighters competing for five rounds, then this is your fight. Belal has a rounded skill set but has vastly improved his pressure and wrestling following his work with Khabib. This is another hard fight to call. You have Gilbert Burns, who gave Chimaev all he could handle and smashed Magny (submission) and Masvidal (Decision). He has a TD volume of 2-3 and a TD defense of 47%. However, he has several TKO/KO wins and recently won a submission. He showed a lot of durability and ability to return for more in the Chimaev fight, but I argue that his best win is his loss to Chimaev.

Leverage

I like Belal as a Draftkings play this week, and I don’t particularly care for Burns. While it could go either way, I don’t see Burns getting enough volume to blow the lid off. He will be highly owned, so I will pivot most of my ownership to Belal. Another spot I don’t want to bet, but I will be invested in both sides of the fight. Finally, it being five rounds give an advantage to Belal as his gas tank is superior to Burns’s.

The pick is Belal, and he will sprinkle Burns in DK in case he hits the ceiling in this spot.

UFC Vegas 72  DraftKings Pick: Muhammad $8000

UFC Vegas 72 Betting: -135 to go to decision

Drew Dober $9200 vs. Matt Frevola $7000

The line to Impact Lean: Under 2.5 -130

Alright, now this one should be violent. This is one of my favorite fights on the card, as you have two guys who are identical in their approaches and love to stand in the pocket and throw. Dober does not have wrestling but will put your lights out. He is on a three-fight win streak and has KO/TKO wins in all those fights. He has scored 93, 79, 110, and 95 in his last three wins. Over his time in the UFC, he has typically scored over 100 in his successes as he gets a lot of finishes but also has KD power to accumulate points and achieve well in a decision.

He is fighting a fighter in Frevola who is just as tough but recently got his lights put out in R1 against McKinney, who Dober knocked out. Therefore, while I don’t love that he beat him so he will beat the other guy type of rationale, this is so close to the style that I will lean toward the fighter, who I think is better overall on most nights.

That said, Frevola has a suspect chin, but as a dog on DK, he could get a KO/TKO or has an outside chance of getting a submission, as Dober has shown that to be a weakness. If Frevola can come out with a game plan to get it to the ground and wear him down, he may be able to win. However, I think Dober will be able to keep him at range, and his chin will hold up throughout the violence that will be this fight. The fight is set at 1.5 rounds, and there is a good chance someone is getting finished, and it may even be early.

The lean is Dober, but I will be heavy on both for Draftkings.

 

UFC Vegas 72 DraftKings Pick: Dober $9200

UFC Vegas 72 Betting: Dober +850 R3 KO/TKO/DQ

Dog Time

Kron Gracie $7500 vs. Charles Jourdain $8700

This line is so off it is not even funny. I don’t understand how Jourdain comes in 2-3, losing two straight, and is a -200 favorite. He is fighting a guy in Gracie who did lose a decision to Cub Swanson, but I am not mad at that. It’s his second fight in the UFC, and he is learning. Now, let’s look at the battle before against Caceres, a respected name in the UFC. What did he do? Oh yeah, he hit a round 1 submission. This dude has a ton of grappling skills and was 5-0 with all requests before his decision loss to Swanson.

In the loss to Swanson, he answered an important question for us: Can he go the distance? While he did lose, he made it to a decision while taking a ton of damage. He is fighting a favorite who has been finished twice over his career, so he will surely get this to the ground and work the submission. The point is there is too much value here to pass up. I am going heavy on Gracie and Fading Jourdain.

Gracie Elevated

Other Picks

• Jessica Andrade $8800 vs. Xianan Yan $7400
  • Andrade $8800
• Movsar Evloev $9400 vs. Diego Lopes $6800
  • Evloev $9400
• Devin Clark $7200 vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu
  • Nzechukwu $9000
• Parker Porter $8600 vs. Braxton Smith $7600
  • Diakese $9200
• Ikram Aliskerov $9100 vs. Phil Hawes $7100
  • Aliskerov $9100
• Borralho $9500 vs. Oleksiejczuk
  • Borralho $9500
• Joseph Holmes $7300 vs. Claudio Ribeiro $8900
  • Holmes $7300

 

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UFC 288 DraftKings Picks Preview Cejudo Sterling

Check out my Full Card Breakdown!

Reference:

Cheat Sheets.

Research Station

Happy hunting, everyone, and thank you for reading!!!

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