UFC Fight Night DraftKings Picks Preview Sergei Pavlovich Curtis Blaydes
UFC Fight Night DraftKings Picks Preview Sergei Pavlovich Curtis Blaydes
Favorite Fighters
- Pavlovich $7400
- Marshall $9200
- Glenn $9000
Two Dogs Worth a Second Look
- Giagos $7200
- Rosa $7900
Bet365: Dog Pound Parlay
- Silva +135
- Pavlovich +145
+475
UFC Fight Night DraftKings Picks Preview Sergei Pavlovich Curtis Blaydes
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Sergei Pavlovich $7400 vs. Curtis Blaydes $8800
The line to Impact Lean: Under 1.5 -165
An interesting stylistic matchup in this fight, with the punching-heavy Sergei fighting the more rounded Curtis Blaydes. While Blaydes is the better technical fighter with TD potential as high as seven and DraftKings scores as high as 172, he has been knocked out before. Sergei is running through people with crazy pressure and heavy hands! If he lands a first-round KO, he will be optimal with the early finish bonus.
However, before loading up on Pavlovich, he was beaten by a less competent Overeem R1 TKO and Blaydes his hands. I think this fight could end on the ground, and the more it goes past the first round, the better Blaydes’s chances are. Regardless, there is a path to a good fantasy score and a low floor with Sergei’s lack of volume.
For the pick, I try to always go with the value and the value here is plus Money Sergei. Regardless, both fighters will be field-level ownership in MME to attempt to gain leverage in other spots.
UFC Blaydes Pavlovich DraftKings Pick: Pavlovich $7400
UFC Blaydes Pavlovich Prop Betting: Blaydes +900 Submission
UFC Fight Night DraftKings Picks Preview Sergei Pavlovich Curtis Blaydes
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Ricky Glenn $9000 vs. Christos Giagos $7200
The line to Impact Lean: Over 2.5 -165
Ricky Glenn is a powerful striker who could land an early finish or generate knockdown points on his way to a decision. Ricky scored 140, 52, and 139 fantasy points in his last three wins. Clearly, he is a low-floor/high-ceiling play. Also, Glenn has shown pockets of wrestling, further making a case for him as a solid GPP play.
On the other side of the fight, Christos Giagos has fought some of the best and lost! Just saying, it is great that you have fought the best, but shouldn’t you have something to show for it if we are going to give you credit?? Well, maybe I am being too hard on our friend Christos as he has fought the likes of Moises and Tsarukyan, who are top-notch fighters. That said, I think Glenn is good as well, but does have six losses and is facing a guy who has fought the best.
The pick is Glenn, but this may be my highest-owned fight overall, as I really love the wrestling upside of Giagos.
UFC Blaydes Pavlovich DraftKings Pick: Glenn $9000
UFC Blaydes Pavlovich Prop Betting: Glenn Decision +130
Brad Tavares $8900 vs. Bruno Silva $7300
The line to Impact Lean: Under 2.5 -130
I like Bruno here! All three of his wins have been by TKO and he has scored 108, 79 and 102 in his last three wins. He is fighting a favorite who has not scored over 80 ftpts in Tavares. So, it Will be Silva or pass for me on DK. Again, he will be low owned, I won’t need to be crazy to be different. For example, if he is projected 12% Ownership, then I can go 22%.
The play is Silva or pass.
UFC Blaydes Pavlovich DraftKings Pick: Silva $7300
Blaydes Pavlovich Prop Betting: Silva +450 R1 KO/TKO/DQ
Fight to Fade
Montel Jackson $9700 vs. Rani Yahya $6500
With the dog, we don’t play 6k fighters, especially mid priced 6k fighters. That being said, Jackson is priced way up and would need to hit a ceiling score of over 130 to pay off. I don’t like the fight as a whole. Fading here could be a nice leverage play in MME.
FADE
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UFC Fight Night DraftKings Picks Preview Sergei Pavlovich Curtis Blaydes
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