Welcome to the final week of the NFL regular season. Week 17 was a roller coaster that thankfully ended with the wonderful news that Damar Hamlin had recovered enough to address his teammate over Zoom and express his love for them. I will try to carry these good vibes into my week 18 picks. It would honestly be hard to do worse than I did in this column last week. Mike White reinjured his ribs and sunk my Jets stacks. Justin Jefferson, who was on pace for the best fantasy season ever by a receiver, only managed 1 grab for 15 yards. The Niners, one of the top Ds in league by any measure, got lit up by Jarrett Stidham.
Unlike most season long and best ball formats that ended last week, DFS players have a chance at redemption in week 18. Here are six plays that I am hoping will help get me back in the black.
Dec 4, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf (14) celebrates after a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
1- Tyler Allgeier $5600 on DraftKings and $6500 on Fanduel
The Falcons have made it a priority to take a late season look at their 5th round rookie running back. In the last 3 weeks, Allgeier has produced 348 total yards. The 20 carries he received against Arizona were a career high. The BYU product is priced at a discount because of a matchup against Tampa Bay, who is usually tough against the run. The Buc are locked into the 4 seed and have nothing to play for. Bookmakers clearly don’t expect Tampa’s best effort, as the 6 win Falcons are 4 point home favorites.
I will have plenty of exposure to the hard running rookie, underpriced against an unmotivated Bucs team.
2- Trey McBride $3300 on DraftKings and $5100 on Fanduel
The Mackey Award winner (best college TE in the nation) saw his snap share take off after Zach Ertz went down, but it hadn’t led to any significant fantasy production until last week against Atlanta. McBride posted 7 grabs, on 10 targets, for 78 yards, and a touchdown. All were career highs. It’s obviously a small sample size, but he seemed to have a connection with David Blough, the journeyman backup who is now starting for the Cards.
Arizona is currently listed at 14 point dogs to the 49ers. The Cardinal could very well be forced to throw the ball, playing catch up. The Niners are a middling defense against the TE, but gave up 72 yards and a touch just last week to Darren Waller. We currently show McBride as less than 2% owned. I think he is a sneaky way to get different on this slate.
3- Jalen Hurts $8200 on DraftKings
I don’t have sell you on what Jalen Hurts is capable of from a fantasy perspective. If you are reading this, you probably know that DFS Army has been championing Hurts ever since he took the job from Carson Wentz. Jalen now returns from injury to a perfect spot. The Eagles have everything to play for. They need to win to secure the number 1 seed and a first round bye. Their opponent, the Giants are locked into the 6 seed and have nothing to play for. They will likely be sitting out at least their top 5 or 6 defenders.
The Eagles have the highest implied team total (28.5) on the slate. They will want to get Hurts back in a groove before the playoffs start. I don’t expect the Giants backups to offer much resistance. Hurts will likely be the highest owned QB, but I will have my shares and find other ways to get different.
4- Garrett Wilson $5800 on DraftKings
He burned me and pretty much everyone else last week as chalk, but I am going right back to the well. Even in a bust performance last week in Seattle, with a hurting White at QB, Wilson still got 11 targets. The question of whether Joe Flacco is elite may never be truly answered, but we do know that the Jets let the old man sling it. In his 3 starts this season Flacco has averaged a wild 51.67 attempts. In those games (the first 3 of Wilson’s career) he averaged 11 targets.
Miami can be beat by the pass. I love Wilson in this spot with Flacco chucking it.
5- Cam Akers $6200 on DraftKings
It doesn’t seem like that long ago that Akers was beefing with the coaches and sitting out games as a healthy scratch. They were not able to find a trading partner and now he has one of the most unlikely bell cow RB roles in the league. Akers has racked up an impressive 380 total yards in the his last 3 games while averaging over 76% of the offensive snaps.
Seattle has a bottom 3 run defense in the league. The Rams are not going to lay down against their division rivals who need the game to keep their playoff hopes alive. I look for Akers to keep his hot streak going in the Pacific Northwest.
6- DK Metcalf $6700 on DraftKings and $7200 on Fanduel
DK got lost in the Sauce last week, managing only 1 grab for 3 yards against the Jets and their outstanding rookie corner. Now we get a price decrease and a better matchup. In his week 13 meeting with the Rams in LA, DK scored some serious DK points (29.7). He worked over Jalen Ramsey and the Ram secondary for 8 grabs, 127 yards, and a touchdown.
On a slate with so much uncertainty, we know the Seahawks will be playing all out until the final whistle blows with their playoff hopes hanging the balance. At home, in a comfortable matchup, I look for a big game out of the big Seattle receiver.
I just want to end by saying thank you to everyone who read this column all season long. Let’s finish up the NFL season strong. If you want to keep the winning going with PGA, NBA, or any other sport DFS Army has you covered with the best tools and coaching available. Sign up for VIP access now and climb those leaderboards!