The Draft Kings Milly Maker contest is a large Field GPP where the top prize pays out $1,000,000. Read the winning trends that we’ve found by reviewing the lineups of past Milly Maker winners.
Jan 1, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13) catches a pass for a touchdown against the Carolina Panthers in the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
History often repeats itself and it didn’t take long in this instance for there to be a repeat of Week 15 when the field really got it wrong. What was wild about the Week 17 Milly Maker winning lineup is it was a very unique lineup and yet it was duplicated on a 13-game slate where most of the field went in on chalky players that crashed and burned their lineups. Let’s see the one lineup that took it down. (For two separate DFS players)
| Week 16 Milly Maker Winner | Points |
| Tom Brady | 40.68 |
| Christian Mccaffrey | 34.3 |
| Travis Etienne | 26 |
| Chris Godwin | 25 |
| Mike Evans | 51.7 |
| DJ Moore | 26.7 |
| Hunter Henry | 10.2 |
| Darren Waller | 16.2 |
| Saints DST | 18 |
| Total | 248.78 |
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RkXMbBDreQI[/embedyt]
Stacking
Primary Stack: Tom Brady 40.68 + Chris Godwin 25 + Mike Evans 51.7 + DJ Moore 26.7
Secondary Stack: Christian Mccaffrey 34.3 + Darren Waller 16.2
Total Stacking Points: 194.58 Fantasy Points. (Primary: 144.08. Secondary: 50.5)
Total Stacking Ownership: 44.81% (Primary: 27.71%. Secondary: 17.10%)
This lineup was one for the DFS Purists; We have that beautiful contrarian QB + 2 with a bring back and a secondary ping pong stack.
The primary stack had a scorching 36 points average across 4 players which accounted for almost 60% of the lineups scoring – mainly due to Mike Evans’ 51-point performance.
While the field was looking to Goff stacks with Amon-Ra at a combined 65% ownership, this lineup faded that game entirely and hit on a contrarian stack in a great matchup with Brady + Godwin + Evans – despite how bad their passing attack has been this year. All it takes is the right stack to hit on any one slate and this one was ‘the nuts’ for both dc05 and phamilton014 as they split a Milly on Draft Kings.
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$1,000,000 Milly Maker Ownership
| Week 16 Milly Maker Winner | Ownership |
| Tom Brady | 3.21% |
| Christian Mccaffrey | 15.97% |
| Travis Etienne | 25.46% |
| Chris Godwin | 10.67% |
| Mike Evans | 6.42% |
| DJ Moore | 7.41% |
| Hunter Henry | 2.05% |
| Darren Waller | 1.13% |
| Saints DST | 4.86% |
| Total | 77.18% |
There are two things that stand out here to me; One is that it’s incredibly rare for a lineup at under 80% ownership to be duplicated – especially with a two tight end build and the 2 tight ends combining for 3% ownership. I haven’t seen that in 3 years of studying Milly Maker winners and I don’t think we’ll see it again anytime soon.
I do think I would’ve late swapped to Ekeler off of CMC if I had a chance to win a Milly and saw that my lineup was duplicated; However, $500,000 is much better than 2nd or 3rd place in the Milly Maker so splitting the top prize wasn’t a bad decision either!
The 2nd thing that stands out is we have another contrarian week which is now 3 out of the last 5 weeks with under 80% ownership. The seasonal average is now right at 109% which is normally where we cap ownership at on the Domination Station.
Top Leverage Plays
Tom Brady at 3%
Nobody wanted to play Brady stacks after getting burned by them all year hoping they would finally break out and take down the Milly Maker like they have so many times before in recent years. Well week 17 was the slate when it paid off as Brady to Evans broke the slate.
Mike Evans at 6%
Mike Evans hadn’t had a big game since week 4 of the season when he had 103 yards and 2 touchdowns. What he did here at 6% ownership was wild as he went for 207 yards and 3 touchdowns. Evans was far and away the top leverage play on the slate.
DJ Moore at 7%
DJ was 5th in scoring at his sub 6k salary and 7% ownership. He was leverage off of so much chalk on the slate that failed, with Jefferson and Amon-ra leading that category.
Pricing and Value from the Milly Maker Contest
| Week 16 Milly Maker Winner | Pricing | FPTS Per Dollar |
| Tom Brady | $6,100 | 6.65X |
| Christian Mccaffrey | $9,000 | 3.81X |
| Travis Etienne | $6,400 | 4.06X |
| Chris Godwin | $6,800 | 3.67X |
| Mike Evans | $6,500 | 7.95X |
| DJ Moore | $5,700 | 4.68X |
| Hunter Henry | $3,000 | 3.4X |
| Darren Waller | $4,300 | 3.76X |
| Saints DST | $2,200 | 8.18X |
| Total | $50,000 | 4.97X |
This cheap double Tight End build of Henry and Waller combined with the cheap $2200 Salary of the Saints DST, really allowed for the pay up option of 9K Christian Mccaffrey and 5 players that averaged $6300 in salary. The double tight end build gets a lot of flak from DFS Players, and rightfully so in cash games and small tournaments. However, when you jam studs into a lineup with the salary savings from the two tight end build, you’re banking on ceiling from the studs to win you a GPP. GPP’s are where you embrace that variance and that was done here with Brady and Evans both hitting over 6.5x their salary and combining for over 90 points.
Ceiling
In another week when the field got it wrong with GPP lineups full of Players like Jefferson, Barkley, and Amon-Ra St Brown, all it takes is a small percentage of the 170,000+ field to really nail 1-2 games on what was actually a high scoring slate. That was what happened here with this 248-point winning Milly Maker lineup that was the 2nd highest score we’ve seen in the past month of the season. Over the prior 7 weeks of the season, we had Milly Maker winners average a score of 232 points.
248 points is achievable with multiple heavy hitters that are capable of 25-40+ points such as Brady, CMC, Etienne, Godwin, Evans, DJ Moore and Waller. When you have 6 players of this caliber stacked in 2 different game environments, this is the type of ceiling outcome you’re looking for if those games pop off as they both did.
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