UFC Orlando DraftKings Picks Preview Thompson Holland
UFC Orlando DraftKings Picks Preview Thompson Holland
Favorite Fighters
- Dos Anjos $9600
- Diakiese $9200
- Marshall $8800
Two Dogs Worth a Second Look
- Valdez $7300
- Rowe $7800
A parlay of The Week:
- Daukas -215
- Hermansson -190
- Guida +150
+459
UFC Orlando DraftKings Picks Preview Thompson Holland
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Kevin Holland $8500 Vs. Stephen Thompson $7700
The line to Impact Lean: Under 4.5 -175
This fight is interesting. A lot of the money coming in on Holland is based on his popularity as an entertainer and a fighter. The dude took down a live shooter and fought crime! How can you not love Kevin Holland?
However, this is the fight game, and the only thing we are loyal to in DFS is the fighter who will give us value, leverage, and money. I like Thomspon as a +135 dog fighting a guy with similar experiences and a similar success rate. I know we are talking about Stephen Thompson getting cut, but a deeper look and you will see that “Wonder Boy” Thompson and “Big Mouth” Holland have the same record over the last six fights, and both have fought good competition as they have been taking an abundance of losses. Furthermore, after a deeper dive into the stats, Thompson has only been finished once in his four most recent losses.
Holland has lost three in a row and had a retirement; I wouldn’t say I like paying up for that in DK or betting. They are evenly matched why this fight should have closer lines, but again, we are chasing value. The argument is -140 to end by KO/TKO/DQ, with Holland being +450 to get KO/TKO/DQ in R1. Thompson carries a +900 tag to get a KO/TKO/DQ in R1 and +1200 in R2.
Therefore, consequently, I have a hard time picking. That said, I am going ALL IN on the war and will and will split my ownership between the two 50/50.
UFC Orlando DraftKings Pick: Thompson $7700
UFC Orlando Prop Betting: Thompson +1200 R2 KO/TKO/DQ
UFC Orlando DraftKings Picks Preview Thompson Holland
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Rafael Dos Anjos $9600 Vs. Bryan Barberena $6600
The line to Impact Lean: Over 2.5 -195
It is simple, RDA or pass here. I plan to be at 65-80% RDA pending the ownership projections, as I hope his price gets people off of him. He has scored as high as 154 in decision wins on DK and has a ton of wrestling that leads to Control time and TD, which will accumulate over three rounds with striking.
With that said, RDA hits the -135 Decision tag and scores a ton of points on his way against a moderate contender in Bryan Barberena. Barberena has good striking but will get taken down and on the floor so much that it will be irrelevant in this spot.
Therefore, the play on DraftKings is RDA or Pass with a significant elevation pending ownership projections.
UFC Orlando DraftKings Pick: Dos Anjos $9600
UFC Orlando Prop Betting: -175 to go to decision
Tai Tuivasa $7200 Vs. Sergei Pavlovich $9000
The line to Impact Lean: Under 1.5 -215
Someone is getting KNOCKED OUT. Sergei is a rising star as he is just running through guys and looking like a STUD as he does it. On the other side, Tai showed a lot of durability in his loss Vs. Gane. Also, his puncher’s chance is what intrigues me about the dog. If we were giving him a shot against Gane because of his ability to get a KO, I do not know why I wouldn’t keep the same attitude against Pavlovich.
The odds are Tai falls to Sergei. The thought of a KO here from the dog makes this fight worth an investment on both sides. Tai is a dog +170 M/L with a +350 price to get a KO/TKO/DQ in R1. Given this, he is one of the dogs we cannot afford not to have ownership of, as he will be optimal if he can land a finish at this price.
Therefore, the pick for me is Sergei, but I am going over the field on both fighters with a lean-to Sergei. I am still debating, but this fight could be another ALL-IN fight for me across 150 lineups.
UFC Orlando DraftKings Pick: Pavlovich $9000
UFC Orlando Prop Betting: Under 1.5 -215
Fight Fade of the Week
Matheus Nicolau $9400 V. Matt Schnell $6800
Both fighters need more volume to produce a great score on DK. On top of this, I don’t play fighters in the 6k range as their probability of hitting is too low, according to data collected through backtesting multiple slates in UFC. Conversely, Nicolau does not traditionally produce enough to score well and is priced way too high. I will take a stance and fully fade this fight in hopes it gets me exposure to the more appealing conflicts for DK.
Other Picks on the Card:
- Anders $7100 Vs. Daukas $9100
- Daukas $9100
- Hill $7900 Vs. Ducote $8300
- Ducote $8300
- Guida $7600 Vs. Holtzman $8600
- Guida $7600
- Johnson $7000 Vs. Diakiese $9200
- Diakese $9200
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UFC Orlando DraftKings Picks Preview Thompson Holland
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Reference:
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May 16, 2020; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Kevin Holland (blue gloves) defeats Anthony Hernandez (red gloves) during UFC on ESPN at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
