Similar to NBA DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
When injury news comes out, the lines surrounding that player will remain the same for a few minutes. The best picks are the ones that come from that player’s game as these lines are likely to be too low or too high depending on which way the news breaks. These are removed quickly so it is important to stay on top of the news to get the best value picks.
Hello DFS Army! I am William and am glad to be back for another NBA season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. These articles are written many hours before lock so the lines will change. The lines will be adjusted as people place bets or the player could be removed from the board. To find the most up-to-date player lines with the best edge, check out our NBA Prizepicks Tool. This tool is included as part of our VIP subscription which you can get your first month for free by signing up and depositing on PrizePicks! There is even another bonus which you will find at the end of this article…
PrizePicks NBA Plays for Tonight…
Dec 11, 2022; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Zion Williamson (1) looks on during the first quarter against the Phoenix Suns at Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Wevers-USA TODAY Sports
Zion Williamson 1H Over 12.5 pts
NOP @ UTA
The Pelicans will be without Brandon Ingram yet again. In a 448 minute sample this season, Williamson averages 27.98 points/36 mins. There are no more restrictions for Zion. He is playing over 36 minutes on some nights. Taking Ingram off the floor, Williamson sees a 1% usage increase. He is the featured player of this team. New Orleans ranks 21st in pace while Utah is 8th. Utah is at home and the home team typically dictates the pace. The Jazz are exactly average in points allowed to PFs. However, Williamson is no ordinary player. His full game line was posted at 25.5 and got removed. He still has a 1st half line available. Williamson’s full game Vegas line is at 26.5 and the over is at -150. This is likely going to end up 2 points lower than the closing line.
Chris Paul Over 27.5 pra / 1H Over 13.5 pra
PHX @ HOU
Devin Booker is out. Houston is one of the best teams to target in fantasy. They have not played as fast this season as previous years, but they have the 2nd worst defensive efficiency rating in the league at 114.6. Paul played 34 minutes last game against the Pelicans which went to OT. He fouled out 2 mins into OT. Paul was dealing with foul trouble all game long. He picked up his 3rd foul in the 2nd quarter which might have caused him to lose out on the final 3:30. Paul picked up his 4th foul with 5:07 in the 3Q. With another game under his belt, Paul should be ready for 35+ mins. In a 108 minute sample size this season with Booker out, CP3 averages 12pt, 11ast, and 5.65reb per 36 minutes. This line is only this low because he did not have a great game previously and fouled out. This is the best matchup for PGs as Houston allows the most fpt to PGs.
CJ McCollum Over 5 asts
NOP @ UTA
In 474 minutes with Brandon Ingram off the court, McCollum averages 6.76 assists/36 mins. This is a 0.66 increase compared to when Ingram is playing. Another important piece of news is that Herbert Jones is expected to return. He would rejoin the starting unit and push Dyson Daniels back to the bench. Daniels can create while Jones is a defender. This will give McCollum more ball handling responsibilities. Utah has done a good job limiting assists to PGs. They have allowed the fewest at 7.32, which ranks 3rd fewest in the league. However, Utah has dealt with injuries. Mike Conley played 25 minutes in his return. He could rejoin the starting five today. They benched Jarred Vanderbilt for Walker Kessler. As mentioned earlier, this is a pace up spot for the Pelicans. With this, Ingram’s absence, and Herb Jones’s return, McCollum looks good for at least a push. His line is set at 5.5 with the over at +110, under -140. The line at 5 gives us a great chance of a push at the very least.
Joel Embiid Over 9.5 rebs
PHI vs SAC
The 76ers are 5.5 point favorites at home in a 227.5 total game. De’Aaron Fox is questionable which is a significant piece of news. While this play is fine if Fox plays, it would be even better of a play if Fox were to sit. That would likely mean another Davion Mitchell start. Sacramento would be less efficient leading to more missed shots and rebounds for Philadelphia. We only have a 92 minute sample size of Embiid and Harden on the court and Tyrese Maxey off the court from last season. Embiid averaged 14.06 rebs/36 mins. This season, the two stars have shared the court without Maxey for 116 mins. Embiid averages 10.53 rebs/36mins. 36 mins is well within the possibilities but 34 is a safer estimate. Sacramento allows 15.24 rebs to centers which is the 14th most in the league. Philadelphia plays at the slowest pace in the league. This matchup against Sacramento is a sizeable pace-up spot as the Kings rank 9th in pace. This is currently a -135 on DK and -142 on Pinnacle.
Final NBA PrizePicks Thought
Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Pick the best lines available. Take advantage of the news and place entries immediately before the lines are taken off the board and adjusted.
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