Back by popular demand, NFL DFS Box Checkers shows you to quickly identify key players for this week’s fantasy football slate in minutes. The DFS Army NFL Research Station is a very powerful suite of statistical analysis with fully customizable, filterable, sortable functionality. What used to take days or hours now takes mere minutes to discover! Follow along as @Choppodong rips these core plays to shreds every week in less than 15 minutes…
At the bottom, see a secret video normally only available to our VIPs! How to setup the optimizer to crush the top 1% and 2% in contests like leagues and microboosters. As the self-proclaimed “king of the smallaballa,” Chop has uncovered another easy to follow system capable of building bankrolls for anyone struggling on Fanduel or Draftkings.
Week 7 NFL Box Checkers for 2022
Quarterbacks
5 categories lead to making value historically. Home NFL QBs perform better than road QBs. Favored teams are implied to score more points, and their QBs do the scoring. Game totals make sense to follow, the higher the better. And, efficiency trumps volume! Volume is nice, but efficient QBs are proven to put up more fantasy points than those banking on volume alone. To finish, salary. You can price yourself out of making value unless putting up a true ceiling performance. In the NFL, we find staying under $8000 in Draftkings salary (9k on Fanduel) helps…in fact, the cheaper the better in many cases.
Remember, blue is very strong. Green is pretty strong. Yellow is like an honorable mention. When it comes to checking boxes, we are tracking those typically leading to a DFS NFL player paying off his salary.
Lots of decent choices, some not listed. Don’t forget this guide isn’t all-inclusive. It’s a teaching ground for you to use our NFL Research Station and find other players fitting these categories that make them strong plays.
Week 7 Notes – No Josh Allen on the main slate this week, so we “should” default to Patrick Mahomes. Everyone loves to “pay down” at QB, but a study into standard deviations has revealed QB can be the best position to pay up in cash games.
Lamar Jackson will gather a ton of ownership, but he is volatile…one of the most volatile QBs. Great ceiling, lower floor than others in his price range. Mahomes and Herbert are the most consistent QBs, but Dak coming back is intriguing. I’m inclined to wait and see, but CeeDee Lamb should be in better shape to regain his WR1 status immediately.
Running Backs
Once again, home teams matter for RBs, and being favored obviously affects game scripts in a positive way. High scoring game environments help push those touchdowns around, landing on running backs. We want volume at all positions not QB. 18 touches (rushes + receptions) is the goal here. Passing game work gives us safety when the game script flips. Red Zone work matters…especially inside the 10 and 5. And, salary works here again. Staying under $8000 like our NFL QBs helps the running backs, too.
NFL DFS RB is often where Box Checkers shines. These guys are safe enough for a cash game, but you might not use them there if you find 30% or 40% NFL RBs. They do, however, make sneaky high-quality pivot plays in tourneys or even multipliers and leagues. My “Ladder System” absolutely feasts off plays like these.
We are not looking at backups getting starting roles in this guide, but they are easy to find and filter in our research station with an additional 5 minutes of work. That’s the beauty of these tools. They are very simple to use once you have just a basic understanding of them.
Week 7 Notes – Joe Mixon week…..all the boxes, lots of ownership. Josh Jacobs is getting run in LV too.
Hard to believe Austin Ekeler isn’t getting goal line work, but it’s probably more lack of opportunity inside the 5 than anything. And, also surprisingly, Aaron Jones has had no looks at the goal line but AJ Dillon has had 2 making him, currently, the goal line back and possibly a tourney play on Fanduel. Neither receives enough touches to be a realistic consideration for a cash game.
Game environment benefits RBs, and this keeps rookies Damion Pierce and Breece Hall just outside the colors and looking in. They make solid tourney plays, though. And, at this current ownership, Saquon Barkley could be a slate breaker if you choose to take more WR value. Let’s see if we get that value at receiver in our next section…
Wide Receivers
Home field advantage proves negligible for NFL WRs. But, being favored is still important to hitting fantasy value. High totals matter, but when favored, we want team totals over 25 points. When the dog, we want UNDER 21 points indicating garbage time potential. Volume matters again. We’d like to see more than 7 targets per game on the average, and we want to see more than about 25% usage in the Red Zone…especially on Fanduel. Salary is key again, so we stay under $7000 here. Remember, this position is volatile as hell. But, we have backtested 250+ contests and found the top 3 Milli-Maker lineups contain someone meeting these criteria almost 60% of the time…..good odds for a crapshoot like WR.
WR is typically our crapshoot position at the lower price points, not so much at the top though. When we don’t get a lot of green and/or blue plays, I will just spend down most times. If the position is going to be volatile, why spend money?
Again, look at the game total category and how much it hurts these guys. We need high scoring games for WRs to be even remotely predictable. When we look at the implied team total (25+/21- column), things quickly fall back into line. The favorites should score points and the dogs should get some garbage time. I’m still looking to spend down where I can because I don’t pay up for lack of predictability.
Another great tool to consult is our coaching NFL Cheatsheets! If you wind up torn on a couple players, sometimes the words in the blurbs by another coach can help you tip the scale. In the case of this week, when Box Checkers isn’t helping a lot, those cheatsheets might become more important to your research.
Week 7 Notes – With Dak back, CeeDee Lamb will be chalky and checking the most boxes….you could safely assume he’ll be used in the RZ too. Jamar Chase, however, might be bad chalk. He’s a great option, but his consistency leaves a ton to be desired this year…easy to avoid in cash games. Courtland Sutton is in a lower total game, but his own implied team total is so low, he sets up for garbage time late in games almost every week Denver is an underdog.
I’d caution Mike Williams if Keenan Allen is back, and his shockingly low usage in the red zone spooks me. Both Seattle receivers find themselves in a good game this week. And, Alan Lazard is the most trusted Green Bay receiver when Rodgers needs a couple yards…this bodes well on a Fanduel where cheap touchdowns are king.
Notice the colors are mostly at the top. I tell VIPs at DFS Army all the time that everyone has the same data, everyone sees the same plays…..this leads to ownership and chalk. We can use that chalk to build our cash game lineups. Don’t go against ownerships often in a cash game. Save that pivot for a tournament. If your player doesn’t have any ownership (like Courtland Sutton), you can debate avoiding him and taking a Deebo Samuel instead. Using ownership in cash games helps you more than it hurts you.
Tight Ends
Here we go with the home and favorite stuff again. NFL TE depends on it. We want volume, so focus on 7+ targets again, too. Red Zone work goes without saying at TE. And, we’ve discovered they also benefit from closer games, under 7 point spreads. If favored, you want ITTs over 26 points, and if the dog, under 24 points. Cheap plays, too!! On Draftkings, $3000-$5000 seems to be landing in the Milli a ridiculous 68% of the time…..and until week 1 this year, we had no recorded example of an 8k TE appearing in the Milli winner. That changes with Travis Kelce, and you can speculate all the previous slates he might not have been a part of due to prime time or Monday Night games. Fact is….the super high-priced TE is rare and likely cost prohibitive most times. Tend to pay down.
Week 7 Notes -Hayden Hurst checks the most boxes, followed by George Everett. But, everyone is still smartly gravitating to Mark Andrews.
Andrews and Kelce are, by far, the most consistent TEs in the game. However, price-considered, other options exist…hence, why we love Box Checkers! Everett has questions if Keenan Allen returns. Kyle Pitts has been disappointing. TJ Hockenson is a great pay-down option checking all the boxes and for non-existent ownership…he’s actually sort of cash safe at that price point and a rare exception where I might go away from ownership safety and roster him anyway.
But, the tourney pivot that is Travis Kelce is mind blowing to me. If you can afford it, the Mahomes/Kelce stack can win you a tournament should your other value options also smash.
Remember, these boxes are set up by Shark Autopsy’s analysis of what players typically land in the Milli-Maker lineups, too. We have our safety plays, but we are also shooting for upside.
Where to Use These DFS Players
Box Checkers players are typically obvious, chalky (see our NFL Chalkboard Tool) and highly owned. Occasionally, we get some that slip under the radar (see our Leverage Stacks components).
However, these players can be used in ANY format from NFL cash games to big tourneys (or “Ladder Lineups” combining both!). The key to tourney play is using a core of these players and adding in some other lower owned pieces to give your lineup some uniqueness and creativity with the upside to beat a lot of competitors. As the DFS NFL world becomes more and more advanced, sometimes simplifying our process actually goes a little against the grain.
Now, How Would You Set Up an NFL Optimizer?
I have backtested my own contests looking for the elusive “top 1%” and found a very fast and easy way to set up optimizers. Gone are the days of hours and hours of research. Make your own tweaks, but start winning more money this week.
Imagine how openly I share with our VIPs? Ask any question, and I will dive into YOUR game and help turn things around. (See how to join DFS Army below.)
Box Checkers Setup NFL Week 14…but applicable for any week.
Don’t waste time duplicating the efforts of nerds! Focus on what matters….setting up optimizers. Here are two very fast ways that work.
I referenced an article I was “working on” focused on Diversification: How to Win with MORE Lineups in an Unpredictable DFS World. I published this in the summer of 2022 and people have reached out in droves to thank me for the concept shared. I think you’ll like it. Hopefully, it helps turn on a couple light bulbs about playing DFS in 2022.
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Plenty of box checkers in Week 8’s gpp winner. But, what’s up with all the goofy correlation? I broke the details down for our members in our #beginners-coaching Discord Channel. If you feel you struggle with stacking, correlation, leverage, and some of the finer points of lineup construction, you are going to want to use that discount above….and get involved.
We turn #Smallaballas into DFS pros every day. And, we can teach you to win 50,000 person gpps just like our coaches do. (It’s not as hard as you think…you just have to interact with us!)
Oh, and in case you want to see how these “Ladder Lineups” work out…..here’s an easy example. This is what we call a “sweep” in that it cashed everything. Ladders build bankrolls!!
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