Oct 23, 2022; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) breaks away for a first down run in the fourth quarter of the NFL Week 7 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Atlanta Falcons at Paycor Stadium in downtown Cincinnati on Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022. The Bengals won 35-17. Mandatory Credit: Sam Greene-USA TODAY Sports
NFL Week 7 had several games play to the over, so we were rewarded with the great game environments that we were hoping for specifically with the Raiders and Texans, Chargers and Seahawks, Chiefs and Niners, and the projected team total of the Cincinatti Bengals. The chalkiest of players in these games absolutely smashed and Burrow made back-to-back appearances in the Milly Maker winning lineup. Who would Burrow bring along with him this week? Let’s take a look!
| Week 7 Milly Maker Lineup | Points |
| Joe Burrow | 42.24 |
| Austin Ekeler | 36.7 |
| Kenneth Walker | 31.8 |
| Mecole Hardman | 28 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | 36 |
| Parris Campbell | 23 |
| Hayden Hurst | 10.8 |
| Josh Jacobs | 39.5 |
| Jets DST | 7 |
| Total | 255.04 |
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tenyo2OcsHk[/embedyt]
Stacking
Primary Stack: Joe Burrow 42.24 + Ja’Marr Chase 36 + Hayden Hurst 10.8
Secondary Stack: Austin Ekeler 36.7 + Kenneth Walker III 31.8
Total Stacking Points: 157.54
Primary Stack 3 Player Average: 29.68
Secondary Stack 2 Player Average: 34.25
In back-to-back weeks, we saw a Burrow/Chase lineup take down the Milly Maker which is now multiple times in two consecutive seasons. We also had two of the chalkiest Running Backs – on the entire slate – used together as a secondary stack for a total of 68.5 points between the two. Ekeler gets a lot of targets for a Running Back, so playing him in a stack with another RB, is more like playing a WR and an RB in the same stack. Ekeler’s 12 targets totaled 96 yards and a touchdown, combined with his 31 rushing yards and rushing touchdown.
$1,000,000 Milly Maker Ownership
| Week 7 Milly Maker Lineup | Ownership |
| Joe Burrow | 17.03% |
| Austin Ekeler | 21.35% |
| Kenneth Walker | 32.06% |
| Mecole Hardman | 2.15% |
| Ja’Marr Chase | 15.45% |
| Parris Campbell | 2.64% |
| Hayden Hurst | 8.08% |
| Josh Jacobs | 46.71% |
| Jets DST | 43.76% |
| Total | 189.23% |
After week 6 when we had extremely low ownership at 54%, this week we had extremely high ownership at 189% – the highest we’ve seen since the 2019 season. In 2020 there was a week with the total ownership of 173%, but that was in the $100 Milly Maker with less entries than the 200,000 that we typically see in the $20 Milly Maker. For comparison, the highest total ownership we saw in 2021 was 121.8% and the seasonal average was 96%.
When the chalk smashes, this is a possibility even though it’s an extreme outlier for GPP’s. With 4 out of 7 weeks with over 110% total ownership, the average to date now sits at 111%
Top Leverage Plays
Mecole Hardman at 2.15%
In a week of the chalk smashing, there were still a few ways to get different and leverage the field, and this lineup obviously found them with Hardman at 2% ownership and the 4th highest scorer at only $4300.
Parris Campbell at 2.64%
It’s hard to find almost as even of a leverage play as 2% Hardman at $4300 but Cambell scoring 23 points at near the same ownership and only $3900 is almost as impressive.
Pricing and Value from the Milly Maker Contest
| Week 7 Milly Maker Lineup | Pricing | FPTS Per $ |
| Joe Burrow | $6,900 | 6.12X |
| Austin Ekeler | $8,300 | 4.42X |
| Kenneth Walker | $5,800 | 5.48X |
| Mecole Hardman | $4,300 | 6.51X |
| Ja’Marr Chase | $8,200 | 4.39X |
| Parris Campbell | $3,900 | 5.89X |
| Hayden Hurst | $3,500 | 3.08X |
| Josh Jacobs | $6,500 | 6.07X |
| Jets DST | $2,600 | 2.69X |
| Total | $50,000 | 5.10X |
Last week when I did my MME & Milly Maker Review on DFS Army’s Youtube Channel, I mentioned that we haven’t had a Running Back or Wide Receiver priced above $8,000 in winning Milly Maker builds in 2022, and over the long run, it’s a positive EV decision to avoid those high-priced players in your Milly Maker builds. However, I did say the high-priced studs will find their way into winning builds every now and then and this usually happens when there’s great value.
The Statsational Power Rankings had the Colts projected for over 300 passing yards, so Parris Campbell was the beneficiary in the offense that projected well and was fantastic value at $3900 that provided salary relief to pay up for an Ekeler and Chase.
The Chiefs passing offense also projected very well, so Hardman was a great GPP play at his $4300 salary that allowed this $1,000,000 winner to cram in studs like Burrow and Chase to bring the kind of ceiling to score over 250 points.
Ceiling
One of the benefits to playing a lot of chalk in tournaments is these are generally players that project very well and have high median scoring with the ability to have a ceiling type game and take down a large field GPP. With Burrow, Chase, Ekeler, Jacobs, and rising star Kenneth Walker, you have exactly that.
These 5 players combined for 186 points, a 37.24-point average per player. The 27.7-point player average you look for to hit a 250-point GPP winning target is much easier to hit when you have a core of heavy hitters that can exceed that average by a large amount and help carry the high variance players – who will struggle to ‘get there’ on their own – like Parris Campbell and Hayden Hurst.
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