10 under 10 – 10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Welcome to another edition of the 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it):

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Rashod Bateman WR Baltimore Ravens

Ownership: DK 9.4%/FD 9.2%

Salary: DK $5300/FD $6100

J.K. Dobbins? Out (likely), Marquise Brown? Traded. Sammy Watkins? Gone. Outside of Mark Andrews (who is a great play), there’s literally no one else for Lamar Jackson to throw to. Devin Duvernay and James Proche are unproven options while Bateman had great chemistry last year with Jackson, averaging 4.5 targets a game with an impressive 83% catch rate. That is likely to increase drastically this year with the loss of all the talent I listed above, and Bateman the true #1 in this offense. His ownership is right at the edge of the 10% range, and while I wish he was a little less owned, he’s still an outstanding play against a Jets secondary that while improved, still will struggle to contain Lamar and this offense. Price wise he’s a nice pivot off a bunch of middling receivers in this range. He has a super high ceiling here and I love him as a one off in this game (or as part of a Ravens stack with Lamar and Andrew).

Amon Ra St. Brown WR Detroit Lions

Ownership: DK 8.2%/FD 9.7%

Salary: DK $6100/FD $6500

Love me some of this Lions offense this year and I’m guessing you’ll see lots of players from it in this article this season (and players going against their mediocre defense). Amon Ra St. Brown is a legitimate WR1 on any team in the NFL and people are sleeping on him in this spot. Until Jameson Williams is healthy and playing, I’m smashing St. Brown. Goff can absolutely sustain a top end receiver (Kupp) and this spot against the Eagles is a decent one as their secondary is likely due for some regression despite the addition of James Bradberry. St. Brown will likely match up against Avonte Maddox in the slot for the majority of his snaps. Maddox had a ceiling season last year and I think it’s going to be very tough for him to continue at that level. St. Browns’ 4 inch height differential over Maddox in the slot will be huge (literally) as well. This game has blow up potential and with Jalen Hurts being the chalky QB on the other side of this matchup, the obvious play is a Hurts naked (or with Goedert/Brown) and run it back with St. Brown. I think the sharper big GPP/Milly Maker play though is to run a secondary stack with St. Brown and Miles Sanders who you will hear more about later in this article.

James Conner RB Arizona Cardinals

Ownership: DK 7.8%/FD 9.1%

Salary: DK $7000/FD $7700

Looking at ownership, it feels like people are sleeping on this game despite the massive game total. You can run all day on the Chiefs and with the issues that the Cardinals are having with their WR’s (Rondale Moore injured, Christian Kirk gone) and Zach Ertz with the Q tag as well, this seems like a spot where Kingsbury could smash Conner 20 times to try and control the pace of the game. The downside here is the Murray vulture at the goal line. We’ve seen him have big time receiving chops towards the end of the year for the Cardinals last year and with the departure of Chase Edmonds I would expect that to continue here and makes him a better play on DK than on FD where we get PPR.

Matt Ryan QB Indianapolis Colts

Ownership: DK 4.3%/FD 2.8%

Salary: DK $5500/FD $6900

Matt Ryan is a GPP winner this week. There. I said it. It feels good. No, I’m not stuck in 2019 and no Ryan isn’t passing the ball to Julio Jones but he is finally in front of a quality offensive line with legitimate weapons at his disposal and this is an unreal spot against a terrible Texan’s defensive that got carved up by everyone in the league last year. By playing Ryan here we can get what’s called correlated leverage on the field. What that means is that with Ryan and his pass catchers, we are assuming that the majority of the scoring will be done by them and that there won’t be much left over for Johnathan Taylor who is going to be very high owned across all formats. If that is the case, then we will be vaulting up the leaderboards as those lineups with JT don’t do much. I love this strategy for GPP’s because it’s boom or bust and that’s exactly what we should be looking for when we build our lineups. If you are trying to take down a GPP, safe shouldn’t be in your vocabulary. Remember ‘First or last, I aint here to min cash’ is our motto! The obvious stack for Ryan is Michael Pittman Jr. who will be fairly high owned and I don’t hate throwing Mo-Alie Cox in there either so that I can stack up a bunch of expensive guys in the rest of my lineup. Game stacks for me include Dameon Pierce or Nico Collins as the run back.

Adam Thielen WR Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: DK 5.6%/FD 6.5%

Salary: DK $5400/FD $6100

All the focus this week will be on Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook (to a lesser extent) and no one is going to play Minnesota’s own Adam Thielen in a prime spot against a good not great, outside of Jaire Alexander, Packers secondary. Thielen has massive TD upside and while others are calling for regression for him there, I think he continues to be Cousins first look in the red zone due to his steady hands. With the Vikings moving Jefferson all over the field, including in the backfield, to try and confuse the defense I think we see Thielen eat in the middle of the field more than we have in the past. We could see double digit targets here and that would smash value. I’m not sold on a Vikings stack per se, because of how slow the Packers plan on playing and the pressure that they will bring on Cousins but Thielen as a one off is very intriguing to me in GPP.

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Juju Smith-Schuster WR Kansas City Chiefs

Ownership: DK 7.6%/FD 7.6%

Salary: DK $5200/FD $6300

WR1 (potentially) in the Chiefs high powered offense, he’s under 10% owned, and he’s mega cheap. I really don’t have to say anything else. Say what you will about Juju last year and the injuries/drama that he brought to the Steelers but this guys is a legitimate baller and I expect him to go off here. I think the ownership might dip even lower due to people overreacting to Allen Robinson last night but I don’t believe that nonsense. This offense suits him and Cards are not great defensively. I’ll take the long term form of Juju here all day. Can obviously pair with Patrick Mahomes, or as a run back with Kyler Murray stacks, but my preferred play here is a secondary stack with James Conner, giving me two low owned options in a high total game.

Jameis Winston QB New Orleans Saints

Ownership: DK 3.6%/FD 3.5%

Salary: DK $5300/FD $6700

No one is talking about this game and it’s crazy to me because I think it has potential to go bonkers on the scoreboard. Winston loves to huck it and the Falcons pass rush sucks so he’ll have all the time in the world to find one of his elite receiving weapons. Gets Michael Thomas back in the mix and we know how elite he has been when healthy, new addition Chris Olave is a super clean route runner, Jarvis Landry is an elite possession receiver, and even Marquez Callaway is a legitimate option here (especially if for some reason Thomas is unable to go). Oh, I almost forgot, he has arguably the best pass catching back in the league in Alvin Kamara. Just checks all the boxes for me here. We need Marcus Mariota and the offense to be at least somewhat competent here to turn this into a shootout so I think we have to do a run it back stack and my favorite options are Kyle Pitts (duh, especially on FD), and I don’t hate Cordarrelle Patterson or even rookie Drake London. Winston is my second favorite GPP QB this week behind Matty Ice.

Miles Sanders RB Philadelphia Eagles

Ownership: DK 5%/FD 6%

Salary: DK $5400/FD $6500

We talked earlier about correlated leverage and that’s what we have here this week with Miles Sanders. Jalen Hurts looks to be the chalk QB pick this week due to price point and potential game script against the Lions. And everyone is expecting to run all over them and rack up fantasy points as he normally does, and you know what? He probably will. BUT there is absolutely potentially that the vulture Hurts gets reverse vultured by our Miles Sanders and he smashes against what was one of the worst front 7’s in the NFL last season. If Sanders has a big game, it’s going to be really hard for Hurts to get there. Is this a low percentage shot? Absolutely, but the potential is there and we saw the Eagles move Hurts to a more traditional type of role late in the season. If that continues and we see Sanders get 15-18 touches I think he crushes against this terrible defense. Love him as a single piece, or as a run back in a Goff stack if you are dangerous enough to go that route.

Dameon Pierce RB Houston Texans

Ownership: DK 3%/FD 3%

Salary: DK $4800/FD $5400

I keep waiting, and waiting, and waiting for Dameon Pierce’s ownership to climb, and here we are on Friday afternoon and he’s still sitting at 3%. The rookie running back for the Texans absolutely dominated in the preseason and established himself as the clear number one for this Texans offense. Houston will want to be methodical under new head coach Lovie Smith on offense and limit mistakes by 2nd year Giraffe, Davis Mills at QB. That will likely lead to Pierce getting plenty of looks, with most Vegas props heavily favoring over 11.5 carries. It remains to be seen if he will get some third down work, or whether that will all go to Veteran RB Rex Burkhead but it would be fair to assume that he will get some looks as he showed some prowess catching the ball for the Florida Gators in college. With the Colts stud LB Shaquille Leonard (formerly known as Darius Leondard) looking like he’s out, the Colts suddenly become a very easy team to run on and that bodes well for Pierce. I’m a sucker for a cheap RB, especially one that is likely to get volume, and I’ll be all over Pierce at this ownership.

Gerald Everett TE Los Angeles Chargers

Ownership: DK 4.4%/FD 3.5%

Salary: DK $3800/FD $5200

Starting TE, with no one behind him (besides someone named Tre McKitty), in a game with a 52 point total? Yes please. Everett will get the start for the high powered Chargers offense in this one and with Donald Parham sidelined he should get all the work he can handle. QB Justin Herbert loves a TE and the Raiders gave up 14.5 DK Points/game to opposing TE’s last year. That would be 4x his salary on DK and make him a real threat to be in the nuts. TE is always tricky because not only do you need your guy to crush, you typically need Travis Kelce to not have a big game too, which is always a dangerous game to play, but I like my chances this week and I love the salary savings/what I can do with the rest of my lineup when I slot Everett in there.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

The Gameplan – NFL Week 1 DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Picks And Betting Angles Breakdown

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