10 under 10 – 10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Welcome to another edition of the 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it):

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

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Let’s Recap last week’s 10 under 10:

Rashod Bateman – 5.9% – 2x

Amon Ra St. Brown – 6.4% – 3.1x  

James Connor – 5.6% – 2.2x

Matt Ryan – 4% – 3.6x  

Adam Thielen – 12.4% – 1.2X

Juju Smith-Schuster – 18.43%  – 2.5x

Jameis Winston – 6.6% – 3.9X 

Miles Sanders – 4.6% – 3.4x  

Dameon Pierce – 4.9% – 1x  

Gerald Everett – 4.4% – 3.8X

Overall, not the worst start to the season for this article. We averaged 2.6x salary which is, for lack of a better term, pretty average. I’d like to be over 3x at a minimum most weeks with my low owned plays, but sometimes salary plays a role in that.

Some of the plays above were good process plays that just didn’t pan out, i.e. Adam Thielen. He was a victim of Justin Jefferson just being completely abandoned by the Packers Secondary and he put up a massive day because of it. Others, like Dameon Pierce, were, in hindsight, just not great picks on my part. I got sucked into the preseason hype and failed to see just how anemic this Texans offense is running the ball. And some paid off, but were ALMOST massive, milly maker winners, like Matt Ryan who had multiple TD passes dropped and a few long balls as well, what could have been!

Speaking of Milly Maker winners, HUGE shoutout to my boy RapidFireXD  for taking down the MILLY ON DRAFTKINGS LAST WEEK!!!

UNREAL WIN and I couldn’t be happier for him and the entire DFS Army Community who just crushed in week 1!

RapidFireXD really took the ‘First or Last I Ain’t Here to Min Cash’ motto to heart!

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Carson Wentz QB Washington Commanders

Ownership: DK 4.6%/FD 4.9%

Salary: DK $5800/FD $7400

Might as well start with the play that makes me want to puke the most, and that is former NDSU Bison/Philadelphia Eagles/Indianapolis Colts QB Carson Wentz. Wentz looked fairly competent against the Jags and their mediocre defense last week and he now gets to go up against a Lions secondary that made Jalen Hurts look good as a passer last week. 41 pass attempts last week and I think that this Commanders offense will huck it up a bunch all year long, particularly in games that they are competitive. He also has sneaky rush upside around the goal line because he’s such a big body.

In a week where there aren’t that many ‘sexy’ options I don’t mind going back to Wentz in a game that I think goes over the total of 48 that Vegas has assigned it. Everyone will chase the Jahan Dotson game from last week (or Curtis Samuel) but I think I’m going to play Terry McLaurin with Wentz in what should be a super low owned stack. McLaurin is a beast and was quiet last week. He’s going to torch this inexperienced secondary like AJ Brown did last week. Run it back options are going to be varied, especially if D’andre Swift is out, but as always I like Amon Ra St. Brown (who just missed out on this article by being projected 10.5% owned) and he’s looking to set the NFL record most consecutive games with 7 catches and you’ll see one more Lion I’m really high on at the bottom of this list!

Rashaad Penny RB Seattle Seahawks

Ownership: DK 3%/FD 4%

Salary: DK $5400/FD $6500

The Monday Night Football game between the Seahawks and Broncos was pretty awful to watch, but the one bright spot for me was the impressive running of Seahawks running back Rashaad Penny. Had 12 carries for 60 yards and was targeted 3 times in the passing game. That 15 touch number is likely what I think we see from him most week’s going forward with the potential for 5ish more touches depending on the game script. I think we saw a ceiling game from Geno Smith in terms of passing and would expect to see more looks for Penny going forward. The 49ers are always a tough opponent but they looked mediocre against the Bears and the run in the sloppy mess they played in last weekend. I don’t ever love targeting RB’s on bad teams but I think that Penny is explosive enough (as he showed last season) to play in DFS. I also love pairing the Seahawks defense with their solid secondary against the 49ers who are down a starting RB and have Trey Lance under center who looks pretty poor throwing the ball.

Michael Carter RB New York Jets

Ownership: DK 7.8%/FD 9.1%

Salary: DK $5200/FD $7700

I know I said that I don’t like targeting running backs on bad teams but here we are. Carter was the clear number one back for the Jets against the Ravens last week with 10 carries for 60 yards and a ridiculous 9 targets. With Joe Flacco under center, Robert Saleh will rely on pounding the ball, and short dump offs, all of which bodes well for Carter. Cleveland stymied Christian McCaffrey last week but he also just didn’t have very many touches. This is strictly a volume play but I think the upside is there for a 4x game as he showed last week when he should have had one but dropped a 4th and goal TD pass on the goal line. Breece Hall is in the wings but he’s not ready for NFL action yet, as evidenced by his fumble and lack of involvement last week. No reason to run it back with anyone but as you’ll see below I do LOVE Donavon Peoples-Jones to smash this week.

Donavon Peoples-Jones WR Cleveland Browns

Ownership: DK 2.4%/FD 0.8%

Salary: DK $4400/FD $5800

Jacoby Brissett‘s favorite receiver is CLEARLY not Amari Cooper, it’s Donavon Peoples-Jones. DPJ had a ridiculous 11 targets and 6 catches in week 1 and accounted for over half of Brissett’s yardage. Now, was Brissett’s passing yardage huge? No ma’am, so there is some risk here but I just can’t get over that volume that he saw. Top 10 in targets last week. If he can find the end zone and do half of what he did in terms of receptions last week he will smash value this week and has GPP winning upside. Again, I hate targeting crappy games, but there aren’t many games this week that aren’t pretty mediocre so it’s important that we target upside guys like DPJ who can really pop off at no ownership.

Juwan Johnson TE New Orleans Saints

Ownership: DK 4.5%/FD 2.1%

Salary: DK $2500/FD $4500

At times, cheap TE’s can be a trap, this my friends is not one of those times. I’d be playing Juwan Johnson at 20% ownership this week, let alone sub 5%. The converted WR has emerged as the top dog in the Saints TE room, and saw 5 targets last week which he turned into 2 catches and 43 yards. Tampa while typically tough against the run, has had trouble with TE’s, as we saw with Dalton Schultz last week. That bodes well for Johnson here. Did see a red zone target last week as well which is encouraging. This game projects as a close match up with both teams getting over 21 points and that could be big time for a min price Johnson. 73% snap share which dwarfs his TE Room compatriots Adam Trautman and Taysom Hill.

4x here is only 8 DK points and he’s more than capable of doing that and he has potential to 6-7x at this price point. Beyond that what he does for the rest of your lineup, in a week where there’s no dominant TE play like Travis Kelce is really intriguing for GPP.

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OJ Howard TE Houston Texans

Ownership: DK 0%/FD 0%

Salary: DK $3000/FD $4500

Howard was the recepient of two TD passes from Giraffe Mills, I mean Davis Mills last week and while he didn’t play as many snaps as Pharoah Brown (who is primarily a blocker) and Brevin Jordan (who is currently hurt/not practicing) I expect that he will be the most involved of anyone in the passing game from this offense. Matchup against the Broncos is JUICY as they allowed guys like Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson to find paydirt against them last week. Howard has always had talent, but was stuck in a deep TE room in Tampa Bay and he’s a bit of a bandaid when it comes to injury. If he can stay healthy he could be sitting on a big year in an offense that lacks pass catchers outside of Brandin Cooks. I think this play has a ton of upside and similar to Juwan Johnson it won’t take much at all for Howard to hit value and he could smash through the ceiling if he becomes Davis Mills’ favorite red zone target.

NOTE: Some may be concerned with his snap share in week 1 and that is completely understandable, but it should be known that he signed with the Texans on September 1st after being with the Bills all through the preseason so it’s not that surprising he didn’t have a big snap share. I’m expecting him to be closer to 40% this week and even higher if Brevin Jordan is out.

Ja’Marr Chase WR Cincinnati Bengals

Ownership: DK 8.4%/FD 10.6%

Salary: DK $8000/FD $8700

Obviously game script helped, but Chase had a ridiculous 16 target game against the Steelers last Sunday and now gets to go up against the Cowboys who are good in name only as we saw last week. Trevon Diggs is electric but he jumps routes and can get absolutely burned, which is what I expect Chase to do. Tee Higgins needs to clear concussion protocol to play and I think that Chase is actually a better play if Higgins is in, as not only will it drop his ownership even more but will take some pf the pressure off him.

Priced up like a stud here and he is on this slate with a bunch of mediocre options. Needs a big game to pay it off but he’s more than capable of one here. Chase has the ceiling to break the slate with a Justin Jefferson type performance this week and I’m going to be well over the field to ensure that I have a chance to take down a GPP when he does.

Russell Wilson QB Denver Broncos 

Ownership: DK 4.8%/FD 8.2%

Salary: DK $7200/FD $7400

Bounce back game for Wilson incoming here. Home against the Texans and their super mediocre secondary, everything points to big game for Russ. The opener was a disaster and I would expect that we see a much improved Denver team, as well as much improved play calling from Hackett. This is one of those weird situations where we are projecting both of Wilson’s primary targets, and RB (Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Javonte Williams) to be 10%+ owned, yet he is looking like a sub 5%  owned play on DK. That doesn’t really make sense. If they have big games, it would make sense that Wilson will too right? Don’t overthink this. This is a great spot at home at Mile High and he’s going to eat the Texans secondary up. Pair him with whoever, preferably Jeudy for me and if you need to do a run it back you know I love OJ Howard, but Brandin Cooks is probably the best piece.

DJ Chark WR Detroit Lions

Ownership: DK 3%/FD 3%

Salary: DK $4800/FD $5400

Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Michael Pittman. What do these three have in common? They all had less air yards than DJ Chark last week. Chark had a solid performance against the Eagles but he was sitting on a monster game. His aDOT (average depth of target) was 15 meaning that Goff was taking shots downfield to him and we know those sort of targets can lead to big fantasy scores. Amon Ra St. Brown meanwhile had an aDOT of just over 5 yards, getting most of his receptions in tight to the line, where there are more bodies and it’s more difficult to create space. With D’Andre Swift dealing with an injury (he did practice Friday) I think that the Lions will have to go to the air early and often against the Commanders and this game has sneaky shootout potential. Outside of Terry McLaurin I think that Chark has the most upside of anyone in this game and his chances to put up a monster performance are pretty good.

Seattle Seahawks DST (vs. San Francisco 49ers)

Ownership: DK 2.7%/FD 3.7%

Salary: DK $2200/FD $3100

Everyone is going to drop down and play the Bungals this week against Cooper Rush and the Cowboys (who I think are actually competitive here) and in my opinion the much better play is to spend $100 more on DK and roster the Seahawks against Trey Lance who isn’t actually any good at QB and has his starting RB out with an injury and George Kittle limited at best if he dresses. The secondary of the Seahawks is tough and they gave Russell Wilson fits last week and their pass rush was decent as well. Jamal Adams going down with an injury is a bit of a cause for concern but I think they’ll be fine. This offense is anemic and this game screams UNDER which is great for defensive points.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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