MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money. But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.
Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate. For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
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MAIN MLB DFS Slate (13 Games)
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Max Scherzer vs PHI
Scherzer has just been great since coming back from the injured list. He has over 8 K’s in 5 of his last 7 starts. PHI isn’t doing awful against RHP in the last 2 weeks, but Scherzer is a different bread when he takes the hill. He has a 1.77 ERA at home this year in 7 home starts, allowing a .186 batting average against with 54 K’s in 45 innings. He’s faced PHI 3 times this year and has 23 K’s in 17 innings. Their roster has only a .212 batting average against him with 39% strikeout rate against him. His numbers look a little skewed against PHI because he did allow 4 Er against them in one start. He’s been great in july and his one start in August too. I love his upside here. ALL FORMATS
Carlos Rodon vs PIT
Great matchup here against the Pirates. They come into this game with almost a 28% strikeout rate against LHP in the last 2 weeks. He has been amazing at home this year in 9 starts allowing just a .141 batting average against with 73 K’s in just 51 innings. He’s coming off 10 K starts in 2 of his last 3 starts and always has the chance to get over 7 K’s when he takes the hill. I do love this matchup for Rodon tonight against the Pirates at home in a pitchers ballpark. ALL FORMATS
Tony Gonsolin @ KCR
Gonsolin gets to start against the Royals here tonight where he actually has a pretty good matchup. The Royals rank 9th in K% in the last 2 weeks with a 23.2% strikeout rate in the last 2 weeks. Their offense has looked a bit better, but I don’t think they get the win against the Dodgers here. Gonsolin has been really good this year for the Dodgers too. Doesn’t have the best strikeout numbers this year, but he finds ways to get deep into games for a QS and always has a chance at the win. LEAN GPP
Patrick Sandoval vs MIN
The Twins have been struggling against LHP over the last couple of weeks. They have a 25.9% strikeout rate and are hitting just .205 as a team. Their power hasn’t been awful, but they aren’t doing much in terms of stringing together hits. Sandoval was decent in his last start against Seattle, but failed to make it 6 innings. I do see upside with this kid, but can’t be trusted in cash games. GPP
George Kirby @ TEX
Kirby has faced Texas twice this year and has allowed just 2 ER in 11 innings with a .179 batting average against. He isn’t a big strikeout guy, but he is coming off 2 starts where he recorded over 7 K’s. Since his blow up game against Baltimore where he allowed 7 ER, he has not allowed more than 2 ER in a start since. If he can continue his success against this Rangers team, I do think he can have another good fantasy outing here. GPP
Mike Clevinger @ WSH
Clevinger has struggled on the road this season, but we don’t have a ton of great options on this large slate tonight so I want to give you some MME type options. Only 3 guys have seen Clevinger on this Nationals roster and they are just 2-20 with 10 K’s against him. Washington hasn’t been as bad as people thought they were going to be after trading Bell and Soto, but they aren’t that great either. Before his last start against the Dodgers, Clevinger had 3 straight starts over 6 innings and didn’t allow more than 2 ER in those 3 starts. GPP
Tyler Mahle @ LAA
His first home start with the Twins didn’t go as planned, but he has an easier matchup here against the Angels. The Angels come into this game with a 25.4% strikeout rate and are hitting just .225. They have had power, but if he’s able to navigate Ohtani and Ward I don’t think he should have much issues with this lineup tonight. He’s been pretty good all season when he was with the Reds and now he’s on a playoff contending team. I do think he bounces back here in this one. Mahle has thrown at least 6 innings in 9 of his last 10 starts. GPP
Luis Garcia vs OAK
Garcia has struggled a bit of late for the Astros, but he has a favorable matchup here tonight against the A’s. They come into this game with a 22% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks and are hitting just .219 in that span. He did struggle a bit last time he faced them in allowing 4 ER, but he managed 7 K’s in 5.2 innings. He needs a bounce back start here for Houston. CHEAPER ALL FORMAT OPTION
Jordan Montgomery vs MIL
The Brewers have really struggled against lefties of late. They rank 5th in strikeout percentage at 29.8% and are hitting only .216 with an ISO of .118. Montgomery may have some better numbers now that he’s out of the AL East, but I’m still not sure why the Yanks traded him as he’s been decent this year for them. His first start as a Cardinal came against his former team and he didn’t pitch awful, but wasn’t able to get much going in terms of strikeouts. Normally, Monty isn’t a big strikeout guy, but with how free-swinging the Brewers have been, he could get a few extra here tonight. GPP
PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN
- Max Scherzer
- Carlos Rodon
- Tony Gonsolin
- Luis Garcia
- George Kirby
- Patrick Sandoval
- Mike Clevinger
- Tyler Mahle
- Jordan Montgomery
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Top MLB Stacks: MAIN DFS Slate
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Houston Astros
- San Diego Padres
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- New York Mets
DINGER OF THE DAY
Nolan Arenado
Nolan has been red-hot of late at the plate for the Cardinals. Over the last 7 days, he’s hitting .440 with a 1.382 OPS, hitting 3 HR in that span. In the last 30 days, he has 7 HR with a 1.178 OPS. I love the matchup with another lefty here as the Cardinals have been on fire against Lefties of late.
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Featured Image:
May 11, 2022; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Max Scherzer (21) looks on against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports