UFC Vegas 58 Fiziev/ Dos Anjos DFS Picks

UFC Vegas 58 Fiziev/ Dos Anjos DFS Picks

Dos Anjos ($7,200) Vs. Fiziev ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Dos Anjos (+170), Fiziev (-200)

RDA is discounted for a fighter who is very well in this fight as the underdog. So much so that I will have a significant amount of ownership of him as I like him to humble Fiziev in this spot. RDA will generate volume in his decision wins, and he will look to take Fiziev to the ground here to neutralize his power. Therefore, I like the takedown upside the dog brings to this fight.

However, I will ensure I am at least matching the field or going slightly under on Fiziev as this is a five-round fight, and Fiziev could hit a finish here at +225 Ko/TKO/DQ. One thing to note is that Fiziev has only exceeded 100 fantasy points in the last five fights. At $9,000, I will be cautious with how invested I am in the favorite as Fiziev could win this fight and not be in the optimal.

Vegas 58 Pick: Dos Anjos $7,200

 Silva de Andrade ($7,000) Vs. Nurmagomedov ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Silva de Andrade (+215), Nurmagomedov (-255)

I like Nurmagomedov here but will not sell the farm and invest every dollar in him. The last name has significant meaning in this sport, but he is not Khabib. I think at $9,200, there will be some value to matching Nurmagomedov if he is chalky, but if for some reason he is projected below 35%, I will have him at elevated ownership by at least 5-10%.

There is value in Silva de Andrade as a dog. With his last three opponents having a combined record of 15-3, I like that SDA was able to come out on top of all of those matches. This could be an excellent low-owned dog to get invested in across multiple lineups because he is very much alive here and could score well if he can get a finish. The under 2.5 is -140, so regardless, I like a finish to happen here.

However, with the dog, there are paths where he could win, and it is low volume, so I will more than likely try to match the field on both of these fighters.

Vegas 58 Pick: Nurmagomedov $9,200

Johnson ($7,100) Vs. Mullarkey ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Johnson (+200), Mullarkey (-240)

Michael Johnson has been submitted five times in his career. Therefore, I like the Mullarkey KO, TKO, and  DQ/Submission -105, which adds to his DFS scoring appeal. Furthermore, Mullarkey scored 109 and 128 in his last two wins, and I would like him to continue the trend against Johnson.

On the other hand, Johnson is a dog with a shot; he is an experienced fighter who recently landed a TKO against Alan Patrick, breaking his four-fight losing streak. Mullarkey has been finished three times in his five losses, which tells us Johnson could manage the same as a +200 dog. Therefore, if Johnson can win, I would like him to get a KO/TKO at +380.

On that note, this is another fight I will be invested in both sides and will ensure I have at least field-level ownership of the favorite in this fight, but I will also have a significant amount of dog ownership.

Vegas 58 Pick: Mullarkey $9,100

Calvillo ($8,500) Vs. Nunes ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Calvillo (-150), Nunes (+130)

I like Calvillo for a win here, but I wouldn’t say I like this fight for DFS scoring. Therefore, I will have limited exposure to both fighters, and this fight is in contention for making my fade of the night. Still, it is Wednesday, and I need to see what the market is trending toward before I make any decisions with this fight.

Therefore, I wouldn’t say I like either fighter right now, and I am leaning towards fading this fight as neither fighter shows a great deal of scoring potential.

Vegas 58 Pick: Calvillo $8,500

 Borralho ($8,900) Vs. Petrosyan ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Borralho (-215), Petrosyan (+185)

Someone is getting a finish here, and I love the prices of both fighters. Therefore I am going all-in on this fight and will lean towards Borralho to get a KO here at +250 and add to his three-fight winning streak.

However, I like Petrosyan to get a finish here if he can get upset. Specifically, he could come out guns blazing and land an early finish as he knows that is one of his better chances of victory. Finally, Petrosyan’s last three wins have a combined record of 15-3, showing he can compete and defeat quality competition.

Vegas 58 Pick: Borralho $8,900

 

Vanderaa ($8,600) Vs. Sherman ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Vanderaa (-180), Sherman (+155)

What an ugly fight; I think no one is excited about these two powdered donuts colliding, but I am from a Draftkings scoring perspective…

I think one of those two will pass out, and the other will get a finish. Honestly, either guy could pull that off, but I do like Vandera to break his three-fight losing streak here with a KO (+130). Also, I do like that he has had a few submission wins throughout his career. Although, I am still trying to figure out what he was doing in his last fight when he decided to wrestle Aleksei Olenick

Sherman has won by KO/TKO in 4 of his last five wins and, if able to do so here, will more than likely score well for a $7,600 fighter.

Vegas 58 Pick: Vanderaa

Zahabi ($7,400) Vs. Turcios ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Zahabi (+160), Turcios (-190)

Turcios or pass, he is one of my more high confident plays on the slate this week because I do not think Zahabi is very good. Combine that with Turcios’s high output and multiple paths to the favorite scoring well in this spot. Finally, he is only $8,800 and a more confident play so I will be all over him.

Buyer Beware: at +120 to get a decision, I do not know if Turcios will do enough in that scenario to land himself in the optimal with a decision win. I think he may need a finish to get an optimal score.

Vegas 58 Pick: Turcios $8,800

Shevchenko ($8,700) Vs. Casey ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Shevchenko (-180), Casey (+155)

For this fight, I like Geek’s take that is provided on the DFS Army Cheat Sheets (Promo Code DFLGENO for 10% off):

This fight should be very low-owned. It looks like a stinker. Casey has won by submission in her career. That’s a viable outcome but not highly likely. The most likely product is a low-scoring decision win. I’m probably fading this one

To that note, I will join Geek in leaning towards fading this fight. I do not see the winner scoring well.

Vegas 58 Pick: Casey $7,500

Brundage ($7,900) Vs. Gore ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Brundage (+105), Gore (-125)

I will be invested in both fighters here, another fight I like a lot based on pricing and odds of ending early (under 2.5 -110). Specifically, I like Gore to land an Rd 1 KO at +600.

Also, Brundage has three submission wins for his last three victories (+450 submission), and if able to do so here, he will score well for a sub-8k fighter. The more I read into this fight and look at the fighter’s history, the more I consider this a coin flip and taking the under. On that note, I will be heavily invested in both of these fighters.

Nzechukwu ($8,200) Vs. Roberson ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Nzechukwu (-125), Robertson (+105)

Many paths where this fight could end in a low-scoring decision, but as far as the winner is concerned, it is another coin flip. Gun to my head, I am going Nzechukwu to get a KO here at +240 KO/TKO/DQ. However, he could still score low with a finish as his volume is that low.

Roberson has three straight losses and has not scored over 100 fantasy points since 2017; he is a fade candidate for this card.

Vegas 58 Pick: Nzechukwu $8,200

Lawrence ($8,400) Vs. Kakhramonov ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Lawrence (-135), Kakhramonov (+115)

This is another fight that I am having a hard time picking a winner, but I know I will be heavily invested in both of these fighters. Both fighters are priced well for their potential to score well in a win. The fight is +380 to end by submission and +250 KO/TKO/DQ. If one of that hits, there is a good chance either fighter will score well in a win.

Kakhramanov has dominated in his last three wins with three finishes in a row. This fight is so close, but I will lean towards Said continuing his moment and getting the fourth finish here.

Vegas 58 Pick: Kakhramonov $7,800

If you followed my youtube picks last week, you may be a happy person as every winner was accurately identified in last week’s video.

UFC 276 DraftKings DFS Picks

Studs

• Mullarkey $9,100
• Turcios $8,800
• Borrhalo $8,900

Underdog Plays

• Kakhramonov $7,800
• Dos Anjos $7,200

GPP Dart Play.

• Silva De Andrade $7,000

Thanks for hanging in, and feel free to reach out with any questions!

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Twitter: @therealgc9

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