UFC 276 DraftKings DFS Picks

UFC 276 DraftKings DFS Picks

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Adesanya ($9,400) Vs. Cannonier ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Adesanya (-380), Cannonier (+310)

Izzy should win this fight; not much of a question there as he is -380 on the M/L. However, he typically does not score well, not even surpassing an average of 75 ftpts over his last four wins (all five-round fights). That said, I wanted to look at ownership a little to help make an educated decision.

Izzy’s ownership is projected at 36%, just below Sean O’Malley and Max Holloway, who I would argue are both in better spots to score than Izzy. Izzy is an intelligent fighter and knows Cannonier is a low-volume power guy. Furthermore, to that thought, I like the idea of 15-18% Cannonier as he will be one of the lower-owned fighters on the card. He knows he is outmatched and will need a KO to win.

That will likely not happen, but it is not impossible. Therefore, I will suppress Izzy ownership and get just a bit of Cannonier.

UFC 276 Pick: Adesanya

Volkanovski ($9,000) Vs. Holloway ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Volkanovski (-195), Holloway (+165)

All in spot for me. I will ensure I have exposure to both fighters. However, I will be more on Volkanovski as I believe he has continued to improve and will put a closure on the trilogy (3-0). However, he could win, and both fighters end up in the optimal lineup.

Holloway averages over 130 fantasy points over his last four wins and can produce enough volume to get a good score even in a loss. That said, don’t write off Holloway; he is a good fighter and is not entirely out of this fight.

Therefore, I will ensure I get both and include a stack rule in the DS.

Pick: Volkanovski

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uVcCe9MXnE

Strickland ($7,900) Vs. Pereira ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Strickland (+100), Pereira (-120)

Near even a money fight here, and both fighters are projected around 30% ownership tomorrow night. That said, I am good with either fighter here. Both fighters can get a finish here, and I think that is the way this fight ends as the under 1.5 is +140.

Therefore, my pick is Pereira to win, but I will allow the domination station to decide how much ownership I have of each fighter.

UFC 276 Pick: Pereira

Munhoz ($6,900) Vs. O’Malley ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Munhoz (+220), O’Malley (-260)

I am locking O’Malley and moving on. Munhoz gives up six strikes per 5 thrown, and O’Malley is a high-volume striker. I think he is in this position for a reason, and O’Malley will win KO/TKO or style to a decision. That said, O’Malley is my lock for this week.

UFC 276 Pick: O’Malley

DK Salaries: Riddell ($7,800) Vs. Turner ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Riddell (+115), Turner (-135)

Jalin Turner is on a four-fight winning streak with four straight finishes. He is also +400 to get a submission and+150 Submission or KO/TKO telling us there is an excellent chance the finish streak continues here. Riddell was just finished in round three by Fiziev, which makes me like the finish for Turner here even more.

Before saying Turner or pass, I looked at some of the scores of Riddell, and he does have the ability to generate some takedowns and has a +275 KO/TKO/DQ. Therefore I plan to have around 30% of each fighter across 200 lineups as I like the under 2.5 here, which is set at -165.

UFC 276 Pick: Turner

Lawler ($8,500) Vs. Barberena ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Lawler (-125), Barberena (+105)

These fighters are towards the other end of their careers and are in a near-even money fight. I am not crazy about this fight from a DFS perspective as the fighters will need high volume to score well here without a finish, which I don’t see either fighter making that happen.

However, it could happen, and therefore I will want to have a little bit of each fighter here around the field’s ownership to ensure I am there if someone hits.

UFC 276 Pick: Barberena

Garry ($8,800) Vs. Green ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Garry (-165), Green (+140)

I will invest in Garry as I like the odds of him getting a KO, which is currently priced at +225. He is now projected to have 23% ownership; I will at least have 10% above that, as this is a spot where some leverage could be gained over those who will invest more in other high-priced fighters.

On the other side, Green will score well in a high-volume decision; he scored 105 fantasy points in his last decision victory against Rowe. He has projected 17% ownership, making him a nice leverage piece.

The pick is Garry, but I will ensure I am invested in both fighters!

UFC 276 Pick: Garry

Cerrone ($7,500) Vs. Miller ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Cerrone (+180), Miller (-210)

Cerrone is a good DFS play here, but I am not picking him to win. Even though Miller could score well with a finish here, I don’t see that happening against Cowboy. Therefore, I will ensure I get ownership of both these guys.

UFC 276 Pick: Miller

Hall ($7,000) Vs. Muniz ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Hall (+230), Muniz (-275)

Hall is cheap for a guy who could get a finish here even though he is a +230 dog. Also, the fight is -125 to end by submission, telling us that either fighter could score well here. This is a fight I could see myself going all-in on because whether the dog or the favorite wins here. I know the winner scoring well.

I will have more of Hall because I am leaning towards him winning by KO here.

UFC 276 Pick: Hall 

Eye ($7,100) Vs. Barber ($9,100)
Vegas Odds Eye (+200), Barber (-240)

I will fade this fight altogether; I think Barber wins and does not score well, as she has not scored over 100 fantasy points since 2019. Priced at 9,100, I have no problem fading her, and subsequently, I will fade the fight’s loser.

UFC 276 Pick: Barber 

Tavares ($8,200) Vs. Du Plessis ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Tavares (+105), Du Plessis (-125)

I like the slightly cheaper fighter in this fight as Du Plessis is a quick finisher, and at 8k, he could pay that price tag off. However, Tavares tends to be more of a decision guy, and if the fight goes the distance, the odds are in his favor as Du Plessis has never been to a decision.

Therefore, both fighters are priced well enough, so they don’t have to have some crazy performance to pay off. I will ensure I am getting ownership of both these fighters, but the pick is Du Plessis.

UFC 276 Pick: Du Plessis

DK Salaries: Clark ($8,600) Vs. Stoliarenko ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Clark (-140), Stoliarenko (+120)

I want to have a little bit of both fighters here, but I like Stoliarenko to garner more of my ownership. Specifically, the +400 submission prop she carries makes me want to invest in her as she could be optimal with a sub here at 7,600.

However, I won’t fade Clark as she could score well in a decision with takedowns and striking. My pick is Stoliarenko to get the win, but I will want ownership of both fighters.

UFC 276 Pick: Stoliarenko

UFC 276 DraftKings DFS Picks

Studs

• O’Malley $9,300
• Turner $8,400
• Garry $8,800
• Volkanovski $9,000

Underdog Plays

• Hall $7,000
• Stoliarenko $7,600

GPP Dart Play.

• Cannonier $6,800

Thanks for hanging in, and feel free to reach out with any questions!

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Twitter: @therealgc9

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