Volkov vs Rozenstruik DFS Picks and Strategy

UFC Fight Night Volkov vs Rozenstruik DFS Picks  &  Strategy

Below is the approach that will be had UFC Fight Night Volkov vs. Rozenstruik.

You will notice differences as we approach UFC Fight Night Volkov vs. Rozenstruik DFS Picks and Strategy, which will be further unpacked below the outline provided:

• 150 Lineups
• 15% Randomization 
• Ownership Cap 100% (Manipulate to take ownership)
• One Fight Fade 
• Two additional fighter fades
• Lock a Stud
• One-two fights 10% for both fighters 
• Two-Three dogs 10-20% above field ownership
• One – Two unique Players
• Optimal Mode 
• Marley 5 Star fight favorite fighter gets a 😍
• Marley 4 Star fight favorite receives a ❤️

I am adjusting from the approach two weeks ago by going down from 200 to 150 lineups to narrow down my players being used. I still think there is a lot of validity to limiting the number of fades, or none at all, but for this week, there is some value in fading a combination of the overpriced fighters and dogs with no shots to get some leverage on the field.

Therefore, this week will have other fades and a complete fight fade to hit the nuts and cash big.

Reference:

Cheat Sheets.

Research Station

UFC Fight Night Volkov vs Rozenstruik

DFS Picks/Strategy

Turd of the Week

SaintDenis (8500) Vs. Stolze (7700)

Both fighters are not appealing and will more than likely score low as neither has a high chance of finishing or accumulating a lot of volume in a decision win. Specifically, Stolze is a low-volume dog, so even in a win will more than likely not score well.

SaintDenis can get some takedowns and land a sub so that I will sub fade him altogether; the fight will be so slow that it will .likely be the fight to have very little or complete fade.

Four Favorite Fighters

• Blanchfield (9600)
• Menifield (8700)
• Dasilva (7400)
• Volkov (8600)

UFC 55 DFS Picks/ Strategy

Volkov (8600) Vs. Rozenstruik (7600)

The main event, going all-in on this fight as it is a five-round fight at -160 to go over 3.5 rounds. Furthermore, Rozenstruik offers upside as a dog with a +200 line to land a KO/TKO/DQ and has scored at least 90 ftpts in his last three wins, which were all achieved by knockout.

However, Rozentruik is hardly an all in play for me as Volkov is a high volume fighter with 24.2 SS/R and is -150 to win by KO, TKO, DQ/ Decision, which has a solid chance to pay off well in DraftKings due to the volume accumulated in a decision or the big score of a late or early knockout.

Therefore, with that being said, I will have this fight in at least 90% of lineups made with more ownership going towards the favorite. Additionally, I will ensure I am at least slightly overweight on Rozenstruik as both fighters are priced well for the upside they bring.

Blanchfield (9600) Vs. Aldrich (6600)

Blanchfield or pass here, but I want to see where the ownership projections are before committing to how much I will have. I don’t see myself getting to Aldrich at all, as there are not many scenarios where the +350 dog pulls out a win here. Furthermore, Blanchfield has a 66% DecW rate with 27.7 SS/R and 1.7 TD/R, which adds to the rationality of her being the highest-priced fighter on the card.

I am waiting for ownership projections because I think she may be less owned due to her high price tag, which can be paid off with a high-volume decision or KO win. If I feel ownership is suppressed, this could be stud lock!

Volkov vs Rozenstruik DFS Picks/Strategy

Jackson (9500) Vs. Argueta (6700)

This one is tough to figure out what I want to do with it in terms of ownership, so I am glad to have guys like Big Marley to help lead the way for us with his expert takes. Therefore, I will be including his narrative to follow his lead in this fight:

Jackson is my preferred play in all formats, but his $9.5k price tag will price him out of most of my lineups. I think he gets a submission (-110) and has a high ceiling, but I would rather pay $100 more for Blanchfield; d there a few people I am ok spending less for. I expect him to be half as owned as Blanchfield, though, so he does make sense as a pivot and could outscore her. I would guess I get 20% or so personally, and I most likely X Argueta out of my player pool.

Evolve (9400) Vs. Ige (6800).

Evloev comes in with a 1.3 TD/R demonstrating his ability to get takedowns and generate a strong fantasy score as fighters receive 5 pts per takedown. Furthermore, Ige has been susceptible to getting taken down, suggesting that Evloev exploited. This advantage. Also, to further add to this suggestion, Ige comes in with his best-winning prop being a decision at +500, showing that it is still not a high confidence play.

Furthermore, Evloev also holds the advantage in significant strikes with an SS/R of 21.6 compared to Ige’s 19.5. All directions are pointing to Evloev as the play here, which in 20 lineups, I will only be playing that side of this fight. However, in 100-150 lineups as Ige has some quality wins over opponents such as Gavin Tucker and Edson Barboza, showing his ability to succeed as an underdog here. Still, Evloev is the rightful favorite in this fight.

Therefore, in fewer entries (20 or Lower), Ige is a complete fade and is worth a 5-10% sprinkle in 100-150 lineups.

Volkov vs Rozenstruik DFS Picks and Strategy:

 Trizano (9100) Vs. Almeida (7100)

This is my stud fade! Trizano is priced too high for a fighter who has not scored over 65 ftpts in his last three wins. On the other hand, Almeida has a finishing upside and averages 32.0 SS/R, illustrating his ability to land many strikes to an upset KO/Decision win (+250). Therefore, this fight will be a dog or pass, with Trizano being my most expensive player fade of the week.

Molina (9000) Vs. Zhumagulov (7200)

This fight is close in terms of lines as Zumagulov comes in with a +155 price tag showing he could get the upset here. Also, either side can score well in this one as the fight is +160 to go under 2.5 rounds, suggesting a finish on either side of the fight could occur.

Given the fighters both show upside and ability to get a win here, I will split the ownership between the fighters evenly at field ownership.

Osbourne (8900) Vs. Adashev (7300)

Volkov vs Rozenstruik DFS Picks and Strategy

Osbourne can get a finish here as he sports a 30% KO rate, and the fight is +130 to end in KO/TKO/DQ. Therefore, given the numbers just mentioned, I will be involved in both sides of this fight. However, I will have more Osbourne as he appears to be the rightful favorite in an excellent position to get a finish at -150 to win by KO/TKO/DQ.

I have faith in Osbourne to get it done here, so I will have him elevated slightly above the field and ensure I am underweight on Adashev.

Solecki (8800) Vs. Dasilva (7400)

Volkov vs Rozenstruik DFS Picks and Strategy

Dasilva shows value as she is cheap on DK relative to her +140 M/L, which tells us this is a fight that the dog could prevail in. Additionally, DaSilva is +165 to get a KO or a decision win which could help him score well in either outcome.

Although I like the dog a lot, I will not X Solecki and ensure I get at least field ownership of him as he could score well in his own right as he has an average of 99.3 ftpts over his last three wins.

Likewise, I will ensure I have elevated ownership on both sides of this fight, but I will get more of the dog in this one as I believe this is where the value is at.

Menifield 8700 Vs. Mozharoventirely

Volkov vs Rozenstruik DFS Picks and Strategy

Both Fighters are priced well, and the fight will more than likely end in the first round by KO; as Cody Saftic says, “This is the battle of the frauds.” It is a matter of identifying the less fraudulent ones. I will note that Menifield is the rightful favorite here as he has fought better competition in that he has fought more in the UFC, and Mozharov has primarily fought in random promotions outside of the UFC.

Furthermore, the fight carries a -900 tag to end, with Menifield having a +100 line and Mozharov having a +175 line to land  KO/TKO/DQ. Therefore, the lines in this one point towards fighting themselves in 80-100% of lineups regardless of the number of entries due to the pricing combined with the upside in this fight. It is much less about how “good” the fighters are and more about the value that their turdly price tags bring to the table with many high-priced fighters on a card.

Menifield has a stronger resume, I will be more invested in him myself, but I will have at least 20% Mozharov in lineups (not fight to stack).

Gravely (8400) Vs. Munoz

Volkov vs Rozenstruik DFS Picks and Strategy

Tony Gravely is the play here with a 2.3 TD/R and a -120 ML. However, I will have some light exposure on Munoz as he is hardly a plus money bet at +120, showing he is not entirely out of this one. Additionally, Munoz is a +250 tag to land a submission here, which will score well with fantasy points.

Herrig(8300) Vs. Kowalkiewicz (7900)

Volkov vs Rozenstruik DFS Picks and Strategy

Both fighters combine for five straight losses. This smells like a real stinker. They have fought before, with Kowalkiewicz winning a split decision, which makes it interesting that Herrig is a -120 favorite. I like that Herrig has improved by fighting competent fighters in Michelle Waterson and Virna Jandiroba.

Also, I think the +500 submission for Kowalkiewicz is sneaky here. However, the fight is not appealing. Therefore I don’t see myself having this fight in more than 20% of my lineups.

Silva(8200) Vs. Botelho (8000)

Volkov vs Rozenstruik DFS Picks and Strategy

I like Silva for this one, and I will have at least 30% of her regardless of ownership.

Why, you ask?

Silva has four finishes in her last five wins, three of them being by submission. Combine that with their two-fight losing streak of Botelho, and Silva is a strong DFS play with a +275 tag to get a Submission/KO.

Therefore, I will get a lot of Silva in my lineups but will not fully fade Botelho as she is +110 to get a Decision/KO, which tells us she is a dog with a shot!

Volkov vs Rozenstruik DFS Picks and Strategy

Happy hunting, everyone, and thank you for reading!!!

Thanks for hanging in, and feel free to reach out with any questions!

Talk to me! I am in the discord 24/7 and value connecting with people.

Twitter: @therealgc9

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Volkov vs Rozenstruik DFS Picks/Strategy