UFC Vegas 54. DFS Mass-Multi Entry Approach/Breakdown

UFC Vegas 54. DFS Mass-Multi Entry Approach/Breakdown

Maximov (9300) Vs. Petroski (6900)

The pricing speaks for itself here as Petroski is the rightful underdog at a +280 line. However, locking Maximov and moving on may not be the move here, as while Petroski is the dog, he does show some specific upside that makes him worth considering in multiple entries.

Petroski has won his last two with a score of 108 and a score of 116 on DK, which would ultimately ensure he lands in the nuts if he can replicate that score in this matchup as he is 6900. Likewise, those wins for Petroski came by finish, and this fight has a +100 tag not to go the distance.

What does this tell us? (UFC Vegas 54. DFS Mass-Multi Entry Approach/Slate Breakdown)

Vegas thinks the fight will end early, + Petroski’s previous wins have been by finish= Petroski deserves elevated ownership based on the numbers.

While I do not advise going all-in on a 6900 fighter, I think the factors mentioned above make him a fighter worth investment, especially on a card such as this which lacks value. Therefore, both fighters will be owned more by Maximov, but Petroski will be held above his projected 15% ownership.

Grant (9100) Vs. Smolka (7100)

In his last three losses, Smolka has been finished by submission and KO, which is why he is the lower-priced fighter in this one. Again, this is a dog with a puncher’s chance as his last two wins have been by KO and average a score of 120 ftpts. At the same time, he is the rightful dog at a +225  Moneyline.

Grant comes in as a -350 favorite/ -105 to land a TKO/KO/DQ as the lowest-priced 9k fighter. However, he lost his last two fights against Vera and Yanez in decision losses. Furthermore, while the favorite is the better play here, I still think there is merit in keeping Smolka in your player pool and shaking it up with randomization, as he could land in the nuts with a finish at 7100.

Taira (9000) Vs. Candelario (7200)

For this fight, I am going to refer to @bigmarley’s take on the fight, which can be found in the DFS Cheatsheets:

“Both sides of this fight are in play for GPPs, but Taira is my preferred play, and I am fine going overweight on him if I can afford it. Candelario is in play because he is cheap, and I think he would score 10x or more if he wins. He could have a striking edge here, and I think he is the higher-paced fighter. We haven’t seen Taira tested yet, so maybe he isn’t ready for it or gets cracked on the feet.”

Again, this is another fight to invest on both sides as the dog could easily hit value in this spot.

**-200 not to go to decision, good chance of someone getting a finish here!! 

Cutelaba (8900) Vs. Spann (7300)

The best play here appears to be the favorite. However, there is a puncher’s chance for the dog in this one. Spann has three finishes over his last four wins, with the only decision win being against Sam Alvey. Spann has lost 2 of his previous 3, getting finished by Anthony Smith and Johnny Walker on the other side of this. Therefore, while he shows the ability to land an upset here, there is merit to the low price on this underdog as there are many worlds where Cutelaba gets the finish and Spann does nothing.

Onto Cutelaba, he is -120 on the line and -135 to get a TKO/KO/DQ making him appealing to reach the finish and produce an excellent DK score at a sub-9k price tag. Also, Cutelaba has lost 3 of 5, but if you look at the competition between Texeira and  Anklaev twice, he has faced top talent. Also, he most recently landed a decision win against Devin Clark, scoring 127 ftpts, demonstrating he can land a good score regardless of the method.

Finally, the favorite here is the safest play, but again, if we are playing DFS tournaments, we should not forget sprinkling in some Spann because he shows slate-breaking potential but probably would not go all-in on him because there is danger there.

Hadley (8800) Vs. Nascimento (7400)

According to the books, one thing to note in this one is that Nascimento’s best path to victory is a submission win at a +450 price tag. If he can land that submission win in this spot at his price tag, he could quickly end up in the nuts. However, Hadley is a top talent and has submitted a majority of his most recent victories but is -110 to get a decision here.

Therefore, this is another one where both the favorite and the dog could score well. Since we are not looking for winners but scorers instead, the ownership in mass entries may benefit from getting an even amount of both fighters across multiple lineups.

Rakic (8700) Vs. Blachowicz (7500)

This is a five-round fight and is -110 to go over 3.5 rounds which helps improve the likelihood of fighters scoring well. Blachowicz is a 39-year-old fighter going against a contender in Rakic. However, Blachhowicz has an impressive win over Israel Adesanya, which recently happened in 2021. Likewise, Rakic has been a machine, most recently running through Thiago Santos and Anthony Smith (Both Decision). Therefore, this fight makes to be a fun main event as both fighters bring their respective strengths.

While some claim the Izzy win was a fluke for Blachowicz, note that it went all the way to the decision. However, he was then submitted by  Glover Teixeira in his next fight. This was ultimately the loss of the title for Blachowicz.

At 7500, Blachowicz could take this fight the distance and accumulate a triple-digit score. Furthermore, he has the experience and has fought quality opponents, making me like him even more as a dog player.

Therefore, Blachowicz and Rakic should be owned in multiple lineups, but consideration should elevate the dog’s ownership.

Chookagian (8600) Vs. Ribas (7600)

Ribas or pass, Chookagian has not scored over 100 ftpts since 2020 and is priced too close to 9k for me to invest in. Also, Ribas has won four of her last five, with all fighters scoring over 75 ftpts, further making her one of the favorite dogs plays on a tricky card. In conclusion, we will be fading Chookagian and elevating ownership on Ribas, who is currently projected 20% ownership!

**Ribas is also a +275 for a decision with a TD/R of .7, showing she could land some takedowns, further demonstrating her potential to score well in this spot.

Jandiroba (8500) Vs. Hill (7700)

Hill averages 82.6 ftpts over her last five wins, only exceeding 100 ftpts in early 2021 (Decision Win against Yoder). I do think there will be fighters that need to be faded for this multi-entry approach to work, and Hill is looking like the most fade-able fighter on the card as she has a history of scoring low in wins and is a +170 dog in this fight, further adding to her lack of DFS appeal.

Jandiroba, on the other hand, has a TD/R of .7 and will most likely use it to neutralize Hill’s striking upside. This is where the fight will be won most likely as hill does not defend well and only has one path to victory, which is striking. Therefore, assuming good game planning, Jandrioba will look to get her to the ground, grinding this thing out, or landing a submission at +275.

Therefore, this will be Jandiroba or pass for DFS purposes.

UFC Vegas 54. DFS Mass-Multi Entry Approach/Breakdown

Torres (8300) Vs. Camacho (7900)

Considering going 50/50 in terms of ownership for the following reasons:

• Both fighters are in the +200s for a KO/TKO/DQ
• -130 line (Torres) to +110 (Camacho 
• Fight not to go the distance is -250 
• Fight is a pick-em with a high chance of a finish
• Both fighters are priced in a manner that helps you afford other pieces. 

Therefore we will get both fighters, and this fight will likely be in 90% of 150 lineups as this fight has a good chance for the winner to end up in the nuts!

Lee (8200) Vs. Araujo (8000)

Both fighters will receive light ownership in case one of them lands a finish and scores nicely, but this will be the lowest owned fight on the card for me. I would suggest looking at the upside if you are playing multiple entries and trying to find the stinker, but this card is so ugly that I don’t know if I feel comfortable fading any fight. Therefore, the pick here will be Lee or pass, as she has scored an average of 108 ftpts over her last two wins.

**Lee has a +110 Decision prop with a .7 TD/R, showing her upside in scoring well in a decision win as takedowns can generate some points for her over the fight.

Fighter To Fade This Week

UFC Vegas 54. DFS Mass-Multi Entry Approach/Breakdown

• Angela Hill (7700): She does not bring high upside and has to get a KO to get a good score here, which is not likely in this fight. Therefore, Angela Hill is my most confident fade of the slate this week.

Optimizer Approach

This week I will be testing out the 150 lineup approach developed in  the UFC274 Backtesting Review Article. I want to test the validity of such high randomization, especially on a tricky card. This is a card where someone will win that we don’t expect, and it will be the difference in the slate.

Therefore, I am selectively fading enough fighters to get down to 18-19 in my pool, setting 25% randomization and attempting to find a lock.

Finding A Lock

I don’t see myself coming to that decision until we get closer to fight time as I want to spend some more time researching, but here are the current fighters being considered for the lock of the week:

• Cutelaba 8900
• Taira 9000 
• Maximov 9300

Finalizing the approach (UFC Vegas 54. DFS Mass-Multi Entry Approach/Breakdown)

We will use two unique further to ensure the distribution of players in 150 lineups. Once we have set all of this up in the DS, it will be time to manipulate ownership using Cap Max %, which, if you are new, you can use the Cheat Sheets.

Below is the outline for the approach I spoke about above:

• 150 Lineups
• 25% Randomization 
• Ownership Cap 100% (Manipulate to take ownership)
• 3-4 Fades
• Lock the stud 
• Two unique Players
• Optimal Mode 

Happy hunting, everyone, and thank you for reading!!!

Thanks for hanging in, and feel free to reach out with any questions!

Talk to me! I am in the discord 24/7 and value connecting with people.

Twitter: @therealgc9

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