MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money. But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.
Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate. For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
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MAIN MLB DFS Slate (13 games)
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Austin Gomber @ WSH
Gomber has been pretty solid for the Rockies this year. He’s a reasonable price on this slate here tonight. He had a good outing against the Mets last time out, but didn’t score well because of the lack of strikeouts. He isn’t a big strikeout guy though. Gomber has gone 6+ innings in 5 of his last 6 starts and last time out against WSH he went 6.2 innings with 6 K’s. Washington doesn’t strikeout much against lefties, but they aren’t hitting for much power either. GPP
Carlos Carrasco vs PHI
We may have some weather issues in this game, so be sure to check weather reports before playing Carrasco. If there is an in-game delay chance, I won’t be on him as much. He’s been solid for the Mets though overall this year. PHI comes into this game with a 24.3% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks. Carrasco has been really good at home this year in 4 home starts he has allowed just 6 ER and has just under K per inning. PHI’s roster doesn’t have a ton of ABs against Carrasco, but they are hitting just .180 against him. Segura is the main guy who has solid BvP against him. 7-16 with 3 HR. I don’t mind him in GPPs though. GPP
Shane Bieber @ DET
Bieber just faced this DET team last time out and he was so chalky. On a bigger slate, he may not be as chalky but he should be. His price still hasn’t really come up much and he’s way too cheap here. He went 7 innings with 10 K’s in the last start against DET too. The upside for Bieber is way too high to not just lock in cash games tonight. Detroit has a 27.6% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks while hitting just .211. Lock and load cash game play. CORE/ALL FORMATS
Bailey Ober vs KCR
Just faced KC in his last start, went 5 innings with 4 K’s and allowed 1 ER. I don’t love the matchup, but KC is striking out a bit more of late. Ober isn’t going to blow people away or rack up a ton of strikeouts though. I don’t love his numbers at home so far this year, but Ober has been really good against RHB, allowing just a .221 wOBA and .167 batting average against. He’s a risky play, but cheaper and allows you to get some good stacks. You are looking for about 25 points from him. GPP
Alek Manoah @ LAA
Manoah was brilliant last start against the Reds, going 8 innings, allowing just 1 ER. The concern here is that he isn’t striking out a ton of hitters over his last 3 starts after racking up 14 K’s in 2 starts against NYY and BOS. The Angels are likely going to be without Ohtani in their lineup tonight after he left the game with back stiffness and I assume they will rest him. We don’t have Ward likely in this game either so that’s 2 big bats out for the Angels. Trout is slumping at the plate. Manoah has just been amazing all season and he’s allowing just a .160 wOBA to right-handed hitters. He’s striking out 30% of the RHB he faces too and doesn’t walk too many hitters. LAA has the 4th highest strikeout rate in the last 2 weeks at 25.7%. The upside is there for Manoah here. ALL FORMATS
Cole Irvin vs TEX
Irvin is a riskier GPP play, but he’s pretty cheap here. He has a decent matchup with the Rangers too. They haven’t been awful of late, but Irvin has been really good at home this season. In 16 IP at home, he has a 1.13 ERA while allowing a .254 wOBA to hitters and just 2 ER. On the road he has been completely opposite. TEX is striking out 21.4% against lefties in the last 2 weeks, which isn’t that high and have shown massive power. There are some bats I don’t mind for Texas in this one, but Irvin has allowed just 2 ER at home all season. Not really a big strikeout guy, but cheap and can work 5-6 innings. GPP/Value
Sean Manaea vs PIT
Great matchup for Manaea here against the Pirates. PIT comes into this game absolutely awful against LHP in the last 2 weeks. Striking out 26.4% of the time against lefties, while hitting just .202 and have an ISO of .123. Manaea has struggled at home so far this year, but this matchup, I’m not too worried about it. He has elite strikeout upside, and even more that PIT is striking out a lot to lefties of late too. Manaea is hovering around a 27% strikeout rate on the season. Coming off a few starts where he’s struggled too. Allowing 3 ER or more in 5 straight starts, but has been able to rack up strikeouts to make the scoring a little better. ALL FORMATS
Justin Verlander @ SEA
Verlander wasn’t amazing last time he faced Seattle, but still managed to go 6.2 innings. That start has been the only start all season where he has struck out less than 5 hitters. Since then, Seattle has a 22.4% strikeout rate against RHP, which isn’t too high, but middle of the pack in the MLB. You’ll see I have him 4th in my rankings tonight, and that’s really because of his high price and he needs a 50+ point FD game and over 25-30 on DK to really pay off tonight. Verlander does have the best WHIP in the league right now and is still racking up strikeouts at a high rate. I love his upside for a QS as he has 6 this year and rolled off 5 straight wins. ALL FORMATS
PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN
- Shane Bieber
- Alek Manoah
- Sean Manaea
- Justin Verlander
- Cole Irvin
- Austin Gomber
- Bailey Ober
- Carlos Carrasco
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Top MLB Stacks: MAIN DFS Slate
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DINGER OF THE DAY
Little off the all dinger of the day call. I could have gone with many others, but I like the numbers Segura has against Carrasco in his career. He is 7-16 with 3 HR and has only struck out 3 times. Against RHP this season, Segura has hit 4 HR and is batting .307. He hasn’t shown a ton of power against righties outside of the home runs, but I like the BvP upside here and it’s a little off the wall call tonight with a ton of big studs likely to hit homers.
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