DFS UFC 274: Oliveria Vs. Gaethje.

DFS UFC 274: Oliveria Vs. Gaethje 

DFS UFC 274: Oliveria Vs. Gaethje

UFC Fight Night: Oliveria Vs. Gaethje

The big slate this week has 15 fights on it. Therefore we will attempt to narrow our pool down to 20-22 fighters. To get down to this number, we will primarily use quantitative and expert analysis as a balance between the data and expert opinion has shown to yield results.

Vince is a guy you would meet if you were in the DFSA discord, and his kill shots have a significant influence on what I do week to week with ownership. One thing I remember him sending the group is, “Big Marley influences a lot of what I do.” This was a light bulb moment for me as anything else in life should be about balance. Instead of just looking at numbers, allow the numbers to keep you objective and hedge off your decisions with the experts.

DFS UFC 274: Oliveria Vs. Gaethje Fades 

But where can I find transparent expert takes???

Come to DFSA, become a member, and start using the cheat sheets. I love the team of coaches we have because they will give you their actual picks and explain them. This leads to growth and understanding, which should be everyone’s goal here, but I know I am preaching to the choir if you are reading this. If you haven’t, become a member and see what you are missing!

Oliveria ( 8500) Vs. Gaethje ( 7700)

I am so excited for this match that I may stay up past 9 pm to see it live! This fight looks fun, and I see myself being 100% invested in it as this fight has a high likelihood of the winner finding themselves in the Nuts lineup. As you can see, both fighters have reasonable prices to get finishes, and Oliveria is so skilled that he could land a Submission at any moment.

The only thing to think about here is who you want to invest in more in the lineups you build; for me, I will look at ownership and go with the less owned. I think either fighter could take this one, so I will take the less owned side of the coin more in a fight that could go either way. However, both pieces are worth investing in when playing Multi-entry tournaments.

Before moving on, one more thing to consider is that the .8 TD/R Oliveira comes in with Gaethje’s 0.0, which tells us a technical fighter like Charles Oliveria could come in with a heavy takedown game plan to neutralize the strikes from Gaethje. This is important to consider as you build multiple lineups because it points to why it may not be wise to go all-in on the dog in this one.

Gaethje “Woof Woof” DFS UFC 274: Oliveria Vs. Gaethje 

As I have said before, I am not just a numbers guy; I love listening to the experts and then investigating their claims. For example, Justin Gaethje has fought Khabib before, and he suffered a submission defeat to the GOAT, but it is the GOAT!

Furthermore, in an interview, Khabib praised Gaethje and his ability to kick and punch. Specifically, he says, “No one has hit me as hard as Justin Gaethje.” Sorry, but Khabib is just a matter-of-fact guy who isn’t going to try to say things to make someone feel good, so this makes me want to take a second sniff at Mr. Gaethje.

https://youtu.be/Ka9eKtGY3d8

Fighters	Oliveria	Gaethje
Record	32-8	23-3
Prop to Consider	Submission +120	KO +200
M/L	-180	+155
% Of Highest Winning Method	15% Decision	33% KO
TD/R	.8	0
SS/R	11.9	37.5

Namajunas ( 8900) Vs. Esparza ( 7300) DFS UFC 274: Oliveria Vs. Gaethje 

Both sides may be worth exposure here. However, Esparza is a buyer beware as she is outmatched in this one. Esparza can only make this competitive if she gets it to the ground because the longer they stay up, the more of a chance there is for her to get tagged big time by Namajunas. Furthermore, Esparaza does not have a high probability of landing a lot of takedowns here, which is what she would need to be relevant in DFS in the chance she makes this competitive.

Therefore, this one should be Namajunas or pass, making Esparza the first one to enter the fade list.

Fighters	Namajunas	Esparza
Record	11-4	18-6
Prop to Consider	140 Decision	275 Decision
M/L	-210	+175
% Of Highest Winning Method	40% Decision	25% Decision
TD/R	.6	1.2
SS/R	20.1	32.0

Why? (DFS UFC 274: Oliveria Vs. Gaethje)

If you are playing 60 lineups and can get a little of both here, it may help you get a hold of a fighter who lands a finish, whether the favorite or the dog here. This means one of them will at least score 90 DK Pts, which makes too much sense when looking at either guy’s price.

Get a good amount of both fighters here for MME play. 

Fighters	Brown	Williams
Record	14-4	13-2
Prop to Consider	KO/TKO/DQ +350	KO/TKO/DQ +175
M/L	+100	-120
% Of Highest Winning Method	24% Decision	36% KO
TD/R	0.3	0.2
SS/R	21.1	25

Chiasson ( 9100) Vs. Dumont( 7100)

I don’t want to fade either of these fighters, but I also don’t want to have them highly owned as they can get you an excellent score or be a real letdown that can bring down lineups even in a win. I say this because both fighters have histories of scoring well, but neither has scored over 100 DK pts in the past three years.

Also, Chiasson was recently forced to tape in her most recent fight, and Dumont landed a submission in 2017. Also, Dumont is a 7-1 prospect, so she is still unproven, as is Chiasson. Therefore, when uncertain, what do we do? Get a little bit of both. The question for me here is to go under or match the field.

Fighters	Chiasson	Dumont
Record	7-2	7-1
Prop to Consider	185	-225
M/L	Decision +350	Decision +100
% Of Highest Winning Method	21% Decision	48% Decision
TD/R	20.2	27
SS/R	0.4	0.4

Fialho ( 9500) Vs. VanCamp(6700)

I LOVE THIS FIGHT! Especially now that I was able to look at Big Marley’s Ownership projections!!! 6% VanCamp this week in a fight between relatively still unproven fighters? Yeah, Fialho is the rightful favorite, but VanCamp is not exactly a walk through the park. VanCamp increases his puncher’s chance as he will more than likely come out swinging, according to the GOAT Cody Saftic (Dog or Pass Podcast).

Therefore, this fight could be the difference-maker in tournaments as VanCamp could win here and pay generously with an early knockout as that is most likely the path to victory. I like both sides but will be much more on the dog in this one.

Fighters	Fialho	VanCamp
Record	15-4	15-5
Prop to Consider
M/L	-410	+310
% Of Highest Winning Method
TD/R	0	0
SS/R	19.6	19.6

Ivanov( 8400) Vs. De Lima(7800)

Ivanov or pass, De Lima does not have credible wins and has not appeared to look sharp in previous outings. Ivanov will likely win here and has the best chance of scoring well. However, Ivanov is one to play but not go all-in on as he is a favorite not priced up because he doesn’t score well, with his most recent wins scoring 86 and 59.

Therefore, the pick here is Ivanov but not sure this fight will not fade altogether.

Fighters	De Lima	Ivanov
Record	19-7	18-4
Prop to Consider	KO/TKO/DQ +250	KO/TKO/DQ +300
M/L	-145	+125
% Of Highest Winning Method	28% KO	25% KO
TD/R	0.4	0.4
SS/R	17	16.6

Rodrigues( 9400) Vs. Vegara(6800)

Rodrigues comes in with a +215 tag to land a KO and +450 for a submission. I think he gets one of those two here and pays well for those who invest in his hefty price tag. At 6800, Vergara is the rightful dog as he is a rookie coming in off the contender series fighting a legitimate prospect. Therefore, this fight will be Rodrigues or pass.

Fighters	Rodrigues	Vegara
Record	7-1	9-3
Prop to Consider	-350	275
M/L	KO/TKO/KO +215	KO/TKO/KO +600
% Of Highest Winning Method	38% Decision	14% KO
TD/R	0	0
SS/R	30.4	32.9

Godinez( 9000) Vs. Carnelossi (7200)

.8 TD/R for Carnelossi to Godinez’s 1.5; the advantage goes to Godinez. However, she may have a hard time with a very strong Carnelossi. We will see quickly who gets the win here as Godinez could come out and dominate on the mat, or we will see a dog creating a stalemate of sorts and Carnelossi possibly pulling out a greasy decision.

As you can see, it is women’s MMA so it could go either way. Therefore, good thing we are playing multiple entries because we can get a little bit of both here to ensure we are on the right side regardless.

Fighters	Godinez	Carnelossi
Record	7-2	14-2
Prop to Consider	-180	+155
M/L	Decision -105	Decision +300
% Of Highest Winning Method	49% Decision	22% Decision
TD/R	1.5	0
SS/R	9.9	21.1

Newson( 7600) Vs. Garcia (8600)

Newson is 9-3, but this is why it is essential to look at things beyond the numbers, as he has not fought since 2020 and was on a three-fight losing streak! He lost to Randy Costa, who then lost two in a row to Tony Kelley and Adrian Yanez, who finished him in round 2.

On the other hand, Garcia is a decision machine with only 1 TKO in his last five wins. Therefore, there are a lot of worlds where he does not score well either, as he does not have a reasonable takedown rate and only averages 13.8 SS/R.

This may be a good fade candidate altogether, as it could be a real snoozer.

DFS UFC: Oliveria Vs. Gaethje Fades

• Trinaldo 8200
• Roberts 8000
• De Lima 7800

DFS UFC: Oliveria Vs. Gaethje Core Play

• Vegara 6800

This weekend, I will be playing 20 handbuilt lineups, generating 150 using the optimizer. However, I have recently written an article specific to the MME Optimizer setup that you can review for the 20-60 approach. Thank you for @suntszu for sharing that he does a handbuild before generating lineups. 

Click here for the full article.

150 Tournament Lineups

The cheatsheet as well as the Research Station, are used to execute the following steps: 

• Fade duds using the Cheatsheet notes
• Research Station for Value
• Player pool of 20-22
• Cap All ownership at 40% and 80% Core Plays (Cheatsheet can help here)
• 25% Randomization
• two unique
• No Locks

Thanks for hanging in, and feel free to reach out with any questions!

Talk to me! I am in the discord 24/7 and value connecting with people.

Twitter: @therealgc9

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DFS UFC: Oliveria Vs. Gaethje