UFC 273 DFS Mass Entry Success
I went through the different sites, taking advantage of all the free one-month trials when I stumbled upon the DFSArmy. Kevin “The Geek (DFSA CEO)” was someone I had been listening to on podcasts for the past four years, and he was also one of the only people who would write me back on Twitter. I thought to myself, “well, the guy who runs the place seems pretty cool, might as well give it a shot.” As we approach UFC 273, it is a decision I am glad that I made.
I did not know it from that moment on, but my whole DFS game would change positively. Once I joined, I immediately listened to the VIP players club (NFL DFS), and Kevin responded to something I said in the comments following with, “Geno, make sure you get in the discord, my man!” I am grateful that Kevin pointed this out, as the discord is the secret weapon of sorts in taking your DFS Game to the next level. Additionally, joining the discord gave me access to not just Kevin but so many other professionals who are sitting around waiting to answer your questions! Finally, I hope my story can inspire you to take your game to the next level, whether with us or someone else! Now let’s break down some fights…
UFC 278: Volkanovski Vs. Jung “Korean Zombie
Individual Fight Breakdown For UFC 273 DFS
This week’s card is loaded with good fights and promising prospects. There should be some live dogs that make some noise on this one, and below, you will find individual fight analysis for each match, plus a template for 60, 150, and 300 lineups using DFS Army Tools!
MMA Disclaimer:
I am not a sports bettor, so my props to consider are related to DFS scoring. If I have put support next to a fighter, it is because I feel it will help contribute to building lineups.
Volkanovski (9500) Vs. Sung Jung (6700) UFC 273
If you are building 150-300, a 10% sprinkle of Jung will not kill you as he could pull off the upset, but the likelihood of that is not high. However, if you are building in the 20-80 lineup range, I would suggest fading Jung, as it will be essential to narrow down a solid player pool of 18-20 players when you are playing from 20-80 lineups. Why? You do not have enough lineups to make playing a fighter like Jung worth it when it boils down to Zombie’s odds of winning the fight. Therefore, if you play 150-300, I wouldn’t go over 8-10% on Zombie.
On the Volkanovski side, I will get at least 60% of him in my lineups (Max 80%). Likewise, at 9500, Volkanovski is +180 to win by KO and -125 to win by the decision as Zombie can take a beating and keep on coming. However, Volkanovski is superior to his recent competition, and Zombie has been finished before when facing competent fighters. For example, Rodriguez recently finished Zombie in Round 5 (11/10/2018). Volkanovski’s appeal increases here as this could create the perfect DFS scoring storm if Zombie can hang for a few rounds before getting knocked out. Also, Volkanovski has a 52% finish rate in his 23 wins. Therefore, I see myself getting in on Volkanovski and having many of him.
| Fighters | Volkanovski | Jung (“Korean Zombie |
| Record | 23-1 | 17-6 |
| Prop to Consider | +120 KO/TKO | +1000 KO/TKO |
| M/L | -675 | + 475 |
| % Of Highest Winning Method | 52% KO/TKO | 64% KO/TKO |
Sterling (6900) Vs. Yan (9300)
This fight will be split with ownership and I plan to elevate them 10% above the field for Yan with 15% above the field for Sterling. More than likely Yan wins again, but Sterling was winning earlier in the last fight, if he could pull it together, I could land in the nuts in a victory as his best path to victory is a submission given it is +800 for a decision and +1000 for a Sterling submission. Therefore, I would say get at least field weight on both fighters, but I love the idea of Sterling pulling this one off and getting a great score, but let’s see how that works out in real time…
Burns (6800) Vs. Chimaev (9400) UFC 273
The only argument against Chimaev is facing the best opponent he has seen to date. However, despite fighting less competent fighters, Chimaev is still running through PROFESSIONALS as if they are fresh out of varsity wrestling practice.
As noted in the Cheatsheets, Geek helps us understand that Burns is the best fighter to date for Chimaev, making him attractive in tournaments, especially at 6800! He is +800 to win by decision, but I think the value here for DFS is how close the line is to KO/TKO compared to a conclusion as the prop is 400 more at +1200. Therefore, IF burns can land a KO shot, I think this is his best shot of a win here; however, it is unlikely. This is another one where I will say if you are playing 150-300, put Burns in at 5-10%, but not anymore, and if you are going below 100 lineups, he is fadeable.
Final Note: Let’s not act like Burns has some fantastic wins to consider. Likewise, upon reviewing his record, there are no significant wins that make you say, “See, Burns has taken down a quality guy before in this spot.” Therefore, I think the fact that Chimaev is being considered a generational talent has, combined with similar resumes (Chimaev much fewer fights), makes me want to fade burns. I plan to do more research here, but I could see myself hitting this with a Chimaev or passing in 150-300. I think after Chimaev takes Burns down tomorrow night, he will fight someone who will be an actual test of his abilities.
| Fighters | Burns | Chimaev |
| Record | 20-4 | 10-0 |
| Prop to Consider | +800 Decision | +275 Submission |
| M/L | +350 | -525 |
| % Of Highest Winning Method | 50% Submission |
Dern (8200) Vs. Torres (8000) UFC 273
Torres has never been finished, which makes her an appealing play at a glance. However, it is essential to remember that getting the wins right is not everything; it helps, but it is not everything. If Torres wins this fight, it will be a low-scoring battle of attrition, most likely as her path to victory is outlasting Dern in a decision victory. Therefore, her 46 Pt projection puts her below the projection required to be included in my player pool, so this spot will be Dern or Pass for me.
On the Dern side of this, she has a 54% win by submission rate, and she is coming off of a tough loss to a tough Marina Rodriguez. She is a 29-year-old prospect, so I think she is in a spot to bounce back here as Torres does not appear to be the same caliber of Marina who Dern took to the distance and lost decision victory. Therefore, although Torres has not been finished yet, the first time could be here and could happen in later rounds, generating a productive fantasy score. So the call here is Dern or Pass; I won’t be overthinking this one.
| Fighters | Dern | Torres |
| Record | 11-2 | 13-5 |
| Prop to Consider | +215 Submission | +130 Decision |
| M/L | -120 | +100 |
| % Of Highest Winning Method | 54% Submission | 76% Decision |
Garry (9200) Vs. Weeks (7000) UFC 273
This one is interesting because you have two prospects coming into a fight in which one of the fighters (Garry) is a significant favorite. He has an 80% finish rate in 5 wins when it comes to weeks, but Barberena is the only competent person he has faced in a fight that ended in Weeks’ decision loss. Garry is undefeated on the other side of this, but again, who has he beat? All of his wins come from cage warriors against fighters who hold no name value at this time.
Upon review of Garry’s record, his eight wins are made up of 62% KO/TKO victories. As much as we can sit here and poke wholes in Garry’s opponents of the past, the fact is that he will eventually get an actual test, but UFC is setting him up to build his name as he enters from Cage Warriors. Do I think Garry is that good? I can’t speak to that yet, but I can say that I don’t believe Weeks is the guy to expose him. If that happens, it will happen in another fight for Garry. Therefore, for DFS purposes, I will have about 10-15% Weeks and at least 10% above the field on Garry (No Fight Stack).
| Fighters | Garry | Weeks |
| Record | 8-0 | 5-1 |
| Prop to Consider | +110 KO/TKO | +550 KO/TKO |
| M/L | -400 | +300 |
| % Of Highest Winning Method | 62% KO/TKO | 80% TKO/KO/Submission |
Rozenstruick (8600) Vs. Tybura (7600)
While Rozenstruick is the rightful favorite in this one, it is interesting to see Tybura’s record at a closer look as he has won 4 fights by submission. Granted, none of those fighters are Rozenstruick, but the idea of Tybura pulling off the upset bid makes him an appealing sprinkle play (5-10%) 150-300. However, I see myself fading this one as Tybura’s most likely path to victory is a dull/slow decision win, and that will most likely not score well in DFS. At 7600, he is not appealing at all, in my opinion.
On the other side of this, Rozenstruick is a quick finisher and has won 75% of his wins by KO/TKO. He has been knocked out, but that is to fighters such as Dereck Lewis and Francis N’Gannou, which is nothing to be ashamed of. I don’t see Tybura being in the same realm of talent as the 2 I mentioned above. Therefore my ownership will go towards Garry as a KO/TKO win could score well at his price of 8600.
Ladd (7300) Vs. Pennington (8900) UFC 273
This one is simply a dog or passes situation as Pennington is priced too high for her more than likely winning score of sub 90 pts. On the Ladd side, she is not that much worse than Pennington, so the value is clearly on Ladd. Therefore, Ladd being 7300 makes her appealing as she could pay off this price with a score of 90 pts in an upset win, which will not be that much of an upset. Furthermore, Pennington’s last six opponents have a combined record of 40-38, further contributing to the dog play here.
Finally, Ladd has six finishes in her last seven wins, showing that she can generate a big score for her price. Therefore, the play here is Ladd or pass, and there is not much more to think about here from a DFS perspective.
| Fighters | Ladd | Pennington |
| Record | 9-2 | 13-8 |
| Prop to Consider | +250 Decision | -105 Decision |
| M/L | 150 | -170 |
| % Of Highest Winning Method | 58% KO/TKO | 61% Decision |
Jun 22, 2019; Greenville, SC, USA; Renato Moicano (red gloves) fights Chan Sung Jung (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Ben Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports
Gall (7400) Vs. Malott (8800) UFC 273
This is another great fight for DFS as the prices on both the dog and the favorite are conducive to hitting or exceeding value. On the Gall side of this, Mickey is 7400 and is living in this one. So let’s say he wins by submission, which is also his most common method of victory. Even if he gets the request early in the fight, he will still score 90 points for the first round finish alone, and at 7400, that is plenty for him to hit value.
Malott, who is the favorite in this one, presents just as much upside as he could volume his way to a decision or land a finish before the 3rd round. This makes Malott a favorite worth investing in as he comes into this one price below 9k but can finish the fight or go the distance in this one. Either way, there is value to be had in this fight, and I see myself getting invested in both sides of it. I will say I will be 15% above the field projected ownership on both sides of this one.
| Fighters | Gall | Malott |
| Record | 7-4 | 7-1-2022 |
| Prop to Consider | +350 Submission | -110 KO/TKO/Decision |
| M/L | 160 | -190 |
| % Of Highest Winning Method | 85% Submission | 42% Submission |
Pichel (8400) Vs. Madsen (7800) UFC 273
Madsen looks like a machine and is undefeated at this point. He is a superior DFS player in this matchup, and as noted in Marley’s write-up found in the Cheatsheets, Pichel goes over 100 with first-round finishes. Furthermore, I don’t see Pichel sticking it to Madsen and moving on.
In his last two decisions, Madsen has defeated in his previous two victories, Guida and Hubbard, two competent opponents. Pichel has the experience, but again we aren’t trying to pick correct winners; we are trying to pick fantasy scorers. Therefore, in this fight, the only piece with a promise to hit or exceed value would be a Madsen win, and he is +215 to pull out a decision win here as the dog. So the pick here will be Madsen, as he will score well if he can showcase his wrestling in a decision upset. I am thinking Madsen 10-15% above here.
| Fighters | Pichel | Madsen |
| Record | 14-2 | 11-0 |
| Prop to Consider | +175 Decision | +215 Decision |
| M/L | -120 | +100 |
| % Of Highest Winning Method | 62% Decision | 60% Decision |
Rodriguez (8300) Vs. Hansen (7900) UFC 273
Neither side of this one shows a great deal of upside. Therefore I will fade this one. I don’t see either landing a big finish or generating a lot of points taking things to the ground. Consequently, this fight will be a passing fade for me in 150 lineups.
Oleinik (8100) Vs. Vanderaa (8100) UFC 273
This is a great fight to target as both fighters could get a finish here, and the line on its end under 1.5 is at -115 currently. Therefore, the opportunity for either fighter to get a finish, specifically a sub, makes both fighters great MMA values. Oleinik comes with a +150 prop for finishing Vanderaa by submission. However, I question if much of the respect is more about the history of the boa constrictors than his current ability.
Vanderaa is sporting a 12-7 record with respectable wins over opponents like Harry Hunsucker and Justin Tafa. However, Spivack, Romanov, and Arlovski overcame him by losing 3 of his last four fights. He faces a legend, but that legend may be over the hump. Therefore, this fight is less about Vanderaa’s abilities and more about whether Aleksei can still perform well and possibly land a submission.
Deeper Dive
Oleinik is one of the older fighters in the promotion and is a fan favorite, but he is over 40 years old!! I am 31, and my back hurts from doing my garden a couple of days ago; I am just imagining being over 40 years old and fighting it out with professionals for three rounds or less… It has to take a toll on the body, and with Aleksi getting finished by Daukas and Lewis, the case is made for grandfather time to be catching up to Oleinik.
However, the argument can be made that Vanderaa is not Daukas or Lewis, but what about Oleinik’s most recent decision to lose to Spivac (15 losses)?? I think this is for Oleinik, but I am not confident enough to fade him or even go underweight as he could easily prove me wrong with a submission victory. Therefore, ownership will be 10-15% above the projected field ownership in this one (No Stacks).
| Fighters | Oleinik | Vanderaa |
| Record | 59-16 | 12-7 |
| Prop to Consider | +150 Submission | +165 KO/TKO |
| M/L | -105 | -115 |
| % Of Highest Winning Method | His nickname is “The Boa Constrictor” | 66% KO/TKO |
Hernandez (8700) Vs. Fremd (7500) UFC 273
This fight will be in 90% of my lineups as both prices check out for a battle that is highly likely to finish before the decision. Fluffy Hernandez can get things to the ground and possibly land a submission. However, at a closer look, the dog may be the value here with Fremd as he only has one decision win in his nine victories, with the other eight coming by submission or TKO/KO. At 7600, Fremd comes in at a +250 line to win by KO/TKO, further encouraging us to get some elevated ownership on the dog in this one.
On the other side of this, Hernandez comes in as the favorite and is -125 to win by submission or KO/TKO telling us that he can easily surpass his 8700 price tag with a finished victory here. Therefore, Hernandez comes in as a favorite worth playing with his great pricing, given the upside he presents in this fight. Finally, the war is -140 to end under 1.5 rounds, telling us the books are in line with a finished victory on either side of this one. Therefore, I will stand by my original statement that this fight will be in 90% of my lineups as I can live with it if one of these guys underscores this pricing and upside.
| Fighters | Hernandez | Fremd |
| Record | 8-2 | 9-2 |
| Prop to Consider | -125 Sub/KO/TKO | +165 Decision/KO/TKO |
| M/L | -180 | +155 |
| % Of Highest Winning Method | 75% Submission | 88% Submission/KO/TKO |
Arce (9000) Vs. Daniel Santos (7200) UFC 273
Not going to spend too much time on this one; it will simply be Santos or pass here as we are not talking about sports betting; we are talking about DFS! In DFS, it is much less about picking winners than picking players who can generate good scores for their price. Therefore, Arce is nothing to be excited about here from a DFS standpoint as he will need to get an early finish to hit value here, and I don’t see that happening.
However, on the other end, Santos is only 7200 and comes in at +155, which tells us that a win for Santos is not out of the realm of outcomes. At a closer look, the fight is -135 to go to a decision, and Santos’s best path to victory is a decision with a +350 tag. It is all relative; Santos is a +155 dog and has a +350 line to win a decision in a fight with the highest chance of ending indecision.
| Fighters | Arce | Santos |
| Record | 17-5 | 10-1 |
| Prop to Consider | +150 Decision | +350 Decision |
| M/L | -170 | 150 |
| % Of Highest Winning Method | 58% KO/TKO | 50% KO/TKO |
Final Thoughts on the dog
Looking at this one closer makes me more convicted of playing the dog in this one and fading the favorite as we are more interested in upside and points than getting the fight correct. However, we may get the best of both worlds in this one by getting a cheap dog with a good chance of winning and producing points before bringing his hand raised.
July 12, 2020; Abu Dhabi, UAE; Alexander Volkanovski of Australia celebrates after his split-decision victory over Max Holloway in their UFC featherweight championship fight during the UFC 251 event at Flash Forum on UFC Fight Island on July 12, 2020, on Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via USA TODAY Sports
Lineup Building Approaches
300 Lineups
For this study, The cheat Sheet is used to execute the following steps:
- Marley 5 Star fight favorite fighter gets a 😍
- Marley 4 Star fight favorite receives a ❤️
- Lock Marley’s favorite Fighter on the card 100%
- Full Fade the two fighters from the worse fight according to Cheat Sheet
- 50% max Exposure
- 0% Randomization
- 300 lineups
- one unique
150 Lineups
For this study, The cheat Sheet is used to execute the following steps:
- Marley 5 Star fight favorite fighter gets a 😍
- Marley 4 Star fight favorite receives a ❤️
- Lock Marley’s favorite Fighter on the card 100%
- 0% Randomization
- 150 lineups
- one unique
- Adjust Max own to 70%
- Fade 2-4 dud fights or fighters
- Lock 1 Stud
Building 60 Lineups
You will notice we kept the same theme and made some minor adjustments for 60 entries:
- Marley 5 Star fight favorite fighter gets a 😍
- Marley 4 Star fight favorite receives a ❤️
- Lock Marley’s favorite Fighter on the card 100%
- 0% Randomization
- 60 lineups
- one unique
- Adjust Max own to 70%
- Ensure your pool is 18-20 Players (Fade more Duds)
- Lock 1 Stud
Up Your Game today for UFC 273
Consider joining our time if you have not done so, as this group of guys is here to coach you and help you win! The level of transparency in the discord that you receive from the professionals is something you can’t put a price on. Furthermore, when joining the army, I was frustrated, refilling my account, reaching for punts to lose every night, and lacking confidence in my game. However, meeting guys like Chop and Geek has taken my game to another level, and I plan to keep growing. Therefore, if you are in the same boat as I was, please consider reading the following passages critically, reflecting on your own DFS performances. It could be the MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION for you!!!
Thanks for hanging in, and feel free to reach out with any questions!
Talk to me! I am in the discord 24/7 and value connecting with people.
Twitter: @therealgc9
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