Luque Vs. Muhammad for the main event in Vegas 51. A DFS approach to the card.

Vegas 51 DFS Mass Entry Success

Creating a Fade list

This slate is interesting because a case could be made to fade 9k and above fighters this week and go to the value in the lower.

For cards like this one, where there are a lot of fighters priced over and a lot of dog shots, I think it is much more important to get the fades down than it is to have a specific DS setup. Therefore, I wanted to share some of the math I am using and testing across Backtesting a total of 55 slates:

1. Get Mean Score, Get SE, Get SD
2. Compute 4 SE of Mean score per fighter
3. Use answer for minimum projection

4SE for this week: 62.645 ftpts projection (Depending on the slate, I will take off an additional SE, for this slate, it could end up being 5se)

This is used to gather data provided to us by DFSA Domination Station. Check it out and use it to help you make your picks too!

4 Projection Based Fades

1. Kianzad (9100)
2. Lansberg (7100)
3. Laramie (7000)
4. Jenkins (7000)

5. 

   Last week was another excellent example of fading over isolating players.

Vegas 51: Luque Vs. Muhammad

 

MMA Disclaimer:

I am not a sports bettor, so my props to consider are related to DFS scoring. If I have put support next to a fighter, it is because I feel it will help contribute to building lineups.

Vegas 51: Luque (8500) Vs. Muhammad (7700)

Given that this is the main event, I see myself getting to both sides on this one. Luque is the superior fighter of the two and comes in with a +225 price tag on landing a KO or TKO. Also, Luque has won by submission, TKO, or KO in all of his last four wins, including his most recent submission against Michael Chiesa. Therefore, the fight will make up 90-100% of the 150 lineups I play this weekend, with 90% of the fight ownership being on Luque and 10% on Muhammad. Now let’s explore the why behind this approach.

On the other hand, Muhammad offers appeal in a dog shot as he shows a solid TD/R at .7 compared to .2 for Luque. Also, let’s not forget Muhammad landed a decisive decision win against a competent Stephen “wonderboy” Thompson, which showcases his ability to compete at a high level. Finally, he has a +250 tag on landing a decision. The Moneyline itself is +155; this hints that there could be something to Muhammad putting on a solid 5-round performance and lighting another decision here as the dog.

While both fighters are worth investing in, I think Muhammad may get it to the ground. However, Luque has a strong ground game with his unique advantage here. Therefore, the play will be about Luque. However, Muhammad will receive some ownership of building 150.

Fighters	Luque	Muhammad
Record	21-7	20-3
Prop to Consider	+225 KO/TKO/DQ	+250 Decision
M/L	-180	+155
% Of Highest Winning Method	30% KO	25% Decision
TD/R	0.2	0.7
SS/R	28.3	22.8

Vegas 51: Borralho (7800) Vs. Omargadzhiev (8400)

There will be ownership on both fighters here, and they will both be owned 10% above field weight as both fighters could win this fight and have good takedown games. However, Borralho is a dog worth some elevated investment for his striking advantage. If he can land strikes on concurrence with takedowns, Borralho could be a dog that pays off nicely here.

Omargadzhieve comes into this without a professional loss and has a solid grappling game. However, he lacks experience in UFC events. Therefore, this increases the dog’s chance to play, land a finishing shot, and pay off that 7800 price tag. While this gives us the inclination to play the dog in this one, Omargadzhieve could grind his way to a decision win or land a finish late or early. Therefore, at 8400, this gives Omargadzhieve appeal as well as he could quickly pay off this price tag with a finish or strong performance, leading to a decision win.

Finally, I plan to at least be over the field by 10% or more on this one as the pricing here is appealing for both fighters and both fighters have the potential to score well in this spot. That being said, I will have more of the dog than the favorite in this one because Borralho is a live dog here at a generous 7800 price tag.

Fighters	Borralho	Omargadzhieve
Record	10-1	13-0
Prop to Consider	+350 Decision	+350 KO/TKO
M/L	+110	-130
% Of Highest Winning Method	45% Decision	61% Sub/KO/TKO
TD/R	0.9	1.2
SS/R	24.3	11.6

Vegas 51: Baeza (8700) Vs. Fialho (7500)

At a +155 tag for this fight to end under 1.5 rounds, both fighters are priced well to hit value with the finish on either side. Baeza is the favorite and has a +225 tag for landing a KO/TKO/DQ. However, Baeza has dropped his last two against Khaos Williams and Staiago Ponzinibbio. The Williams fight exposed Baeza’s chin as Williams was able to land a 3rd round finish.

On the other side of this, Fialho comes into this projected Fialho has shown that he can be finished as he has now lost two professional finishes by KO, one of which being in a Bellator event. Most recently, Fialho lost his last match to Michel Pereira in a decision victory. However, this showed us that Fialho could finish a fight and take some damage. Before this fight, Pereira demonstrated the ability to complete fighters throughout his professional career. Finally, if you look closely, Fialho is only a +275 price tag to land a KO/TKO here, which is only 50 more than the +225 price tag for the favorite to get a finish here (KO).

With that being said, I will be more invested in the dog here than the favorite. The thought is 10-20% above the field on Fialho and field weight on Baeza, as both fighters can produce a strong score for their price tag here.

Fighters	Baeza	Fialho
Record	10-2	14-4
Prop to Consider	+225 KO	+275 KO
M/L	-180	+155
% Of Highest Winning Method	35%KO	27% Decision
TD/R	0.2	0
SS/R	24.3	15

Vegas 51: Bueno Silva (9300) Vs. Yanan (6900)

At a glance, there is not much need to overthink this one; it will be a dog or pass for DFS purposes, as Silva has only scored over 90 ftpts in 2 of her seven wins in her career. Therefore, being priced 2nd highest on the slate makes her not appealing as she will need to score well to pay off the price. However, she is still worth a tiny sprinkle in 150 or more entries as she has shown the ability to land a submission victory.

As I write this, I think that this price tag is a sucker price to get us off of a favorite here who could score well with a submission victory. However, the thought is not strong enough to make me want to go over 10% under the field with Silva. On the other side of this, Yanan is on a two-fight losing streak where both opponents subbed her. However, she was able to land a sub against Mueller in November. So she shows the ability to get a finish and payoff her price tag.

Also, Yanan has a 22.6 significant strike per found to Silva’s 19.6 further increases the appeal to getting in on the dog in this one.

In conclusion, I will be at least 10% over Yanan as the value here is for the dog. Given that I play a lot of entries, I don’t want to miss out on the favorite, getting a finish here and scoring well, so I will be 10% under the field on Silva.

Fighters	Silva	Yanan
Record	7-2	12-4
Prop to Consider	-105 Decision	+650 Decision
M/L	-510	+375
% Of Highest Winning Method	50% Decision	14% Decision
TD/R	0	0.2
SS/R	19.1	22.6

Vegas 51: Sabatini (9200) Vs. Laramie (7000)

Sabatini comes into this one as the rightful favorite holding an advantage in most aspects of the game. Also, Laramie falls into a projection range well below what I am looking for in a fighter from approaching this using the math. My minimum for most soldiers is a 57ftpt projection, which is roughly 3-4 standard errors when using the statistical formula for the fade list.

However, at a closer look at ownership, Sabatini is not one I will go over the field on due to this projection and for his price. He is at 9200 and only projected 92.02 ftpt in a win. Therefore, the pick is Sabatini/ Fade Laramie, but I will not go over the field on Sabitini.

Fighters	Sabatini	Laramie
Record	16-3	12-4
Prop to Consider	+140 Submission	+650 Decision
M/L	-510	+375
% Of Highest Winning Method	43% Decision	14% Decision
TD/R	0.9	0.9
SS/R	26.7	13.7

Vegas 51: Lazzez (8800) Vs. Loosa (7400)

The line is -150 to go to a decision here, and both sides also can land an early KO here. I don’t see it happening, but it could happen for either side. I will go 10% under on Lazzez and match the field on Loosa.

Why?

I think the value is on the dog here because Lazzezz will need to get a finish here, most likely to hit value at an 8800 price tag. On the other side, 7400 for Loosa, who comes in with a +350 decision prop, could style her way to a decision win and collect some pts. Therefore I believe Lazzezz will win. However, I don’t think the performance will put out a fantasy-worthy score so that ownership will go more towards the Loosa side.

Fighters	Lazzez	Loosa
Record	10-2	8-2
Prop to Consider	+250 KO/TKO/DQ	+350 Decision
M/L	-210	+175
% Of Highest Winning Method	41% Decision	20% Decision
TD/R	.4	.3
SS/R	28.5	21.4

Vegas 51: Knight (7600) Vs. Clark (8600)

Both sides here could land a KO and collect some TD pts on the way there. This is not a fight where either fighter is exceptional, but both offer upside for fantasy purposes. However, with a -135 tag on going to decision, it looks like the fight has less chance to end by the finish.

Ownership Leverage

It looks like this one will be highly owned on both sides. Therefore, I plan to invest field weight on Clark and 5% over on Knight because pivoting off this could pay well insignificant field GPP contests where these two may be highly owned. On the Knight side of things, he has an 82% win by KO/TKO/DQ over his successes, which adds to his appeal as a value play here.

Fighters	Knight	Clark
Record	11-3	12-6
Prop to Consider	+ 350 KO/TKO	+140 Decision
M/L	+150	-170
% Of Highest Winning Method	82% KO/TKO	67% Decision
TD/R	0.7	15.7
SS/R	15.9	0.8

Vegas 51: Kianzad (9100) Vs. Lansberg (7100)

I am fading both sides of this one and will boil it down to the projections of both fighters as Lansberg is projected 44 ftpts, which puts her below the 3-4SE criteria for cheaper soldiers. On the other side, Kianzad is priced up and only launched 66 ftpts, which puts her barely above the baseline projection for lower-priced fighters. Therefore, if I lose because one of these puts up an outlier, I will be okay with that as I think there is more value in a complete fade on both sides of this one.

Fighters	Kianzad	Lansberg
Record	15-6	10-5
Prop to Consider	-200 Decision	+500 Decision
M/L	-425	+320
% Of Highest Winning Method	62% Decision	17% Decision
TD/R	0.1	0.2
SS/R	26.7	13.8

Vegas 51: Klose (9100) Vs. Jenkins (7100)

This is another simple one we won’t spend too much time on, as Jenkins has the lowest projection on the slate, which is why he made my fade list as my goal is to focus more on the math rather than “how I feel” so I won’t be chasing a dog in this one and trusting the math. On the Klose side of this fight, he is the highest projected fighter on the slate and has won 47% of his arguments by KO. If he can land a KO early or late here, he could score well, but he could also score well with a solid performance leading to a decision. The pick here is Klose or pass, and there is not too much more thinking about it for me.

Fighters	Klose	Jenkins
Record	11-2	15-8
Prop to Consider	+140 Decision	+1000 Decision
M/L	-630	+450
% Of Highest Winning Method	47% KO	40% KO/TKO
TD/R	0.5	0
SS/R	19.5	14.1

Vegas 51: Garcia (8200) Vs. Ronson (8000)

I like both sides of this fight as both fighters are priced generously and show the ability to score well. Specifically, Ronson can pay well even if he does not get a finish, which Big Marley helps us realize as he points out in the cheat sheet that,

” He is more likely to finish with a +275 ITD line than +330 from Garcia, and I would give it a little bigger gap. Rafa doesn’t need a finish to score well, though, because he can rack up takedowns. He scored 69 in a loss two nights ago, and he scored 93 in a decision win in his last fight, and that is in play again here.” (Jump on the Cheat Sheet to see Geek’s, Marley’s & Eric F’s full cheat sheets for each fight).

As you will see in the chart below, Garcia has a strong takedown rate, which could serve him well if he could pull out a decision on his side of things, which is at +200 as I write this article. Therefore, both sides can go the distance, and the fight itself will most likely go the distance. I will get 10% above the field on both fighters here.

Fighters	Garcia	Ronson
Record	13-2	21-10
Prop to Consider	+200 Decision	+225 Decision
M/L	-105	-115
% Of Highest Winning Method	32% Decision	30% Decision
TD/R	1.3	0.2
SS/R	22.1	17.7

Vegas 51: Barnett (7200) Vs. Buday (9000)

This will be a fight that I invest heavily in with more ownership towards the favorite. I plan to fight 80% of my 150 with 90% of that ownership on Buday. I like Buday as he comes in with a -110 KO/TKO/DQ tag and the fight itself is +100 to go over 1.5.

What do the fight props tell us?

We can see two things now; there is a good chance of Buday getting a finish and a good chance of it happening after garnering some takedown and striking points. Also, Barnett’s best chances of winning are getting a KO as his prop for this is +275, which is the cheapest winning method you can get for him on the betting market. Therefore, while he is the rightful dog, if Barnett can land a KO, he can quickly pay off his price tag, so we will make sure we get both sides of this one, with most of it going towards Buday.

Fighters	Barnett	Buday
Record	22-7	9-1
Prop to Consider	+275 KO/TKO/DQ	-115 KO/TKO/DQ
M/L	+195	-240
% Of Highest Winning Method	26% KO	52% KO
TD/R	0	0
SS/R	24.5	23.3

Vegas 51: Leavitt(7900) Vs. Ogden(8300)

I am going in on both sides of this one at 10% above the field, as this will be a closely contested match with both fighters being priced well. However, I may go 20% over on Leavitt as he comes in with his best line for victory being +350 on submission. Also, the fight is -110 to go over 2.5, which means it could go a while before Leavitt lands a submission win, ultimately resulting in an intense fantasy score at the low price of 7900. Therefore, both fighters will be owned at least 10% above the field, but I see myself going more towards the dog in this one with ownership in 150 lineups.

Fighters	Leavitt	Ogden
Record	9-1	15-4
Prop to Consider	+350 submission	+225 Decision, +300 Submission
M/L	+120	-140
% Of Highest Winning Method	20% Decision	27% Decision
TD/R	.9	0
SS/R	6.6	18

Vegas 51: Nunes(8900) Vs. Hughes(7300)

Neither fighter is showing to be very good, and both are coming off of losses, with Hughes dropping three straight. Both fighter’s projections fall below 4SE, which helped make my decision to fade this fight. There is not too much thinking to this, as time will be better spent looking at fights that have a higher potential to win us a tournament.

Fighters	Nunes	Hughes
Record	6-2	5-4
Prop to Consider	-110 Decision	+300 Decision
M/L	-225	+185
% Of Highest Winning Method	50% Decision	60% Submission
TD/R	0	0
SS/R	24	17.5

Vegas 51: Alatengheili(8800) Vs. Croom(7400)

Alatengheili is a +250 to get a KO/TKO; however one thing I am wondering about is if he can land a submission against Croom, whose opponents have subbed in the past. He could pay off his tag if he can do this or land a KO in the first round. However, it is -170 to go over 2.5, which tells us that it is unlikely. Therefore, Alatengheili will be played 10% below the field to have some of him still if he can land a finish and produce a good score.

On the Croom side of this, he has +300 to win a decision. However, he does not show anything that separates him from Alatengheili, making him feel like he will break a slate in this spot. His TD/R and SS/R are below Alatengheili’s .6 TD/R and 13.8 SS/R. Therefore, according to the math, I may get a sprinkle of Croom as his projection does put him close within 4SE, which creates the notion that he could pay off his price tag with an upset here.

Fighters	Alatengheili	Croom
Record	14-8	21-14
Prop to Consider	+250 KO/TKO/DQ	+300 Decision
M/L	-170	+180
% Of Highest Winning Method	50% Decision	22% Decision
TD/R	0.6	0.2
SS/R	13.8	13.3

Up Your Game today for Vegas 51

Consider joining our time if you have not done so, as this group of guys is here to coach you and help you win! The level of transparency in the discord that you receive from the professionals is something you can’t put a price on. Furthermore, when joining the army, I was frustrated, refilling my account, reaching for punts to lose every night, and lacking confidence in my game. However, meeting guys like Chop and Geek has taken my game to another level, and I plan to keep growing. Therefore, if you are in the same boat as I was, please consider reading the following passages critically, reflecting on your own DFS performances. It could be the MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION for you!!!

Thanks for hanging in, and feel free to reach out with any questions!

Talk to me! I am in the discord 24/7 and value connecting with people.

Twitter: @therealgc9

Pricing for DFS Army VIP
Coupon Code for 10% off DFLGENO