DFS UFC Fight Night: Vera/Font Breakdown. ME Approach.

DFS UFC Fight Night: Vera Font

For the Vera Vs. Font card, there are many close fights, which increases the chances for a shaky and volatile card. As I researched the slate, I wanted to provide a framework for playing tournaments with 60 entries or more on slates with so many possible dogs barking. For reference, I have been playing MLB with Scott Neuman’s MLB system, which we all get the advantage of using as DFSA members…

Transfer from MLB

One thing that has stood out to me with MLB is how they talk about embracing the volatility of baseball because it is so unpredictable. Light bulb moment: I thought about how MLB guys approach volatility, and I thought to myself, “why not modify that approach for these MMA slates that are hard to pick?”. Therefore, below I am providing you with a brief outline of the DS setup for slates with high volatility or many possible barking dogs. Using this setup, I backtested this approach across several slates and generated three nuts scores in 4 trials.

ME DS Setup for Vera Vs. Font:

For this study, Marley’s cheat Sheet is used to execute the following steps: 

• Identify top 3 favorite fighters according to research and elevate their ownership 20% above projection
• Lock a Stud 100% (Romanov!)
• 20% Randomization
• 60-150 lineups
• 2 Uniques
• Adjust Max own on all other fighters to a max of 40%
• Fade 2-4 dud fights or fighters (18-20 fighters in the pool)

UFC Fight Night: Vera Vs. Font

This is another slate where I will put a majority of the emphasis on sniffing out those turds and removing them from my pool. I hope to have a solid collection of 20 players to work with for this week’s slate.

A combination of the Research Station, Coach’s Cheat Sheets, and the Domination Station were utilized to help create this content. Join now and start dominating UFC DFS this week!!!

MMA Disclaimer:

I am not a sports bettor, so my props to consider are related to DFS scoring. If I have put support next to a fighter, it is because I feel it will help contribute to building lineups.

UFC Fight Night: Vera ( 7900) Vs. Font (8300)

This is a five-round fight and a close matchup, making this a battle worth investing in for DFS purposes. Specifically, as a gpp player playing 60 or more lineups, it would be wise to get ownership on both sides of this fight as the line is very close, as the fighters are pretty evenly matched.

Vera is an experienced and competent fighter who has won two of his last three with a decision loss to Jose Aldo in 2020. Also, he most recently landed a KO against Frankie Edgar in round three, generating a score of 95 ftpts. Furthermore, Vera has averaged 96 ftpts over his last three wins, which were all 3 round fights rather than a five-round fight as this weekend is. Also, Vera is only a +115 dog illustrating that the books believe this will be a close and competitive match. However, it is essential to take a deeper look at the favorite in this fight before moving on.

Closer Look

On the Font side, he has won 3 of his last 4 with a loss in his most recent fight to Jose Aldo. However, Font wins 4 of his last 5 with a decision win over Garbrandt and a TKO against Marlon Moraes. Therefore, Font can get the job done and score well in this spot. However, both fighters are similar with a close line, suggesting the value you here is with the dog.

For this fight, both sides can be owned in multiple entries, with more ownership going to the dog in this one as that is where the value is given Vera’s generous 7900 price tag in DraftKings.

Fighters	Font	Vera
Record	19-5	20-7
Prop to Consider	+165 Decision	+275 Decision
M/L	-135	+115
% Of Highest Winning Method	36% Decision	25% Decision
TD/R	0.4	0.3
SS/R	28.2	20.4

 

DFS UFC Fight Night: Vera Font

UFC Fight Night: Jotko (8200) Vs. Meerchaert (8000)

Another fight with a close line; however, Meerchaert is susceptible to being taken down, which Jotko should take advantage of in this spot. However, Meerchaert has a +300 line to land a sub, suggesting he could get taken down but land a submission while on the ground. At a closer look, Meerchaert has landed three submissions in the last three fights with scores of 62, 101, and 102 ftpts. However, before investing totally in the dog in this fight, it is essential to take a deeper look at the Jotko before moving forward.

Jotko is the favorite. However, he is a decision machine with only a fantasy score above 90 ftpts over his last four wins. This demonstrates that while Jotko may have the edge here for betting purposes as his takedown defense is superior,   as I have said in the past, we chase scores, not winners. Therefore, this is a fight where you could make a case for fading the stud and getting some ownership of the dog, as that will be the most likely outcome for this fight to pay off in DFS with a quality score. Therefore, Jotko can be suggested as one of the fade candidates for this card in tournaments.

DFS UFC Fight Night: Vera Font

Fighters	Jotko	Meerchaert
Record	23-5	34-14
Prop to Consider	+215 KO/TKO/DQ	+300 Submission
M/L	-160	+140
% Of Highest Winning Method	31% KO	16% Decision
TD/R	0.4	0.8
SS/R	14.6	15.6

UFC Fight Night: Taira (9200) Vs. Candelario (7000)

This is another match with a reasonably close line, and both fighters come in with similar records. Taira jumps off the page for me as a favorite when I see the +200 submission prop as a submission win shows the potential to score well. However, at 9200, I would suggest not going all-in on this favorite as the dog is only +190. There are so many dogs being played this week, but it is about value again. The value here is on the 7000 fighter who holds a statistical advantage over the favorite in TD/R and SS/R.

However, let’s remember that Taira has landed submissions in his last three wins, so I wouldn’t just write him off. Both sides are worth some ownership. However, ownership projections will have to be released before committing more to one fighter. The big concern here is that other soldiers in Taira’s price range could easily score better than him in this spot, i.e., Romanov 9600 in a smash spot.

Fighters	Taira	Candelario
Record	10-0	8-1
Prop to Consider	+200 Submission	+450 Decision
M/L	-235	190
% Of Highest Winning Method	32% Decision	17% Decision
TD/R	0.2	0.8
SS/R	20	21.9

DFS UFC Fight Night: Vera Font

UFC Fight Night : Romanov (9600) Vs. Shermann (6600)

Romanov will be an excellent tournament play as his ability to finish, combined with his takedown and special skills, make him have a great ceiling! Furthermore, Romanov has shown his power to end and fight a whole fight in his last four wins, with 3 KO/TKO wins and one split decision against a tough Juan Espino. Romanov is looking like an absolute stud here, and the more he fights, the more confidence is developed in him.

Therefore, they are feeding him a win here by giving him a 15-9 Shermann, who has lost 4 of his last five fights, with 3 being decisions and one being submission. It will be Romanov here, and he may be a great play to have highly owned in 150. Also, this fight was scheduled for last week; however, it had a final second scratch after lock, which makes me hope it will scare some of the fields off of owning Romanov.

Fighters	Romanov	Sherman
Record	15-0	15-9
Prop to Consider	KO/TKO RD 1 +150	+1800 KO
M/L	-2200	+1100
% of Highest Win Method	43% KO	5% KO
TD/R	1.9	0
SS/R	21.8	31

DFS UFC Fight Night: Vera Font

UFC Fight Night: Levy( 9000) Vs. Breeden (7200)

Yes, Levy is pretty expensive, but for tournaments, I look at this fight and wonder if this is a spot that could separate someone in large-field games as Levy is not that well known and very expensive, which will likely scare some ownership off of him. This makes him an excellent tournament player. Looking deeper into his record, he has landed three submissions in his six professional wins, which shows the potential to generate a strong DFS performance. Also, Levy has a TD/R of 1.0 to Breeden’s 0, which further drives home that he could pay off his price tag with a strong performance.

On the other side of this, Breeden is not a dog to look at and move on as he shows potential to land a win and end up in the nuts here, as well as he has the same line to win by KO/TKO/DQ as he is to win by decision. At 7200, if Breeden can land a finish here by KO/TKO, he will need more than likely to pay off his 7200 price tag. However, Breeden was recently knocked out by Alexander Hernandez (10-3), showing that Levy could get a finish here. Therefore, ownership for this fight can be split evenly between the two fighters, but ownership can be at field weight or lower for both fighters here.

Fighters	Levy	Breeden
Record	6-1	10-4
Prop to Consider	Decision +120	+400 KO and 400 decision
M/L	-195	+165
% Of Highest Winning Method	43% Decision	20% KO 19% Decision
TD/R	1	0
SS/R	12.6	20.2

DFS UFC Fight Night: Vera Font

UFC Fight Night: Fili (9300) Vs. Brito (6900)

Something here scares me about getting too much Fili; I believe it may be that he is so high priced and is only a -260 favorite. There are fighters in better spots if you will spend up on someone. However, Brito is a rookie who is unknown what he can do against higher-level fighters, making Fili worth some ownership in GPP tournaments. Finally, fili has not scored over 100 DK ftpts since 2018, which creates an even greater case to go under on both fighters and possibly fade the fight altogether.

Fighters	Fili	Brito
Record	21-8	12-3
Prop to Consider	+130 Decision	+330 Decison
M/L	-260	+210
% Of Highest Winning Method	41% Decision	22% Decision
TD/R	0.8	1
SS/R	17.5	16.7

UFC Fight Night: Arlovski(8400) Vs. Collier(7800)

Arlovski has not scored over 73 ftpts in his last five wins, and he is fighting a live dog in Collier. Collier is a +120 dog, increasing his appeal as a DFS play. Therefore this fight will be Collier or pass as he appears to have a significant striking advantage for a +120 dog. Collier also has scored 80 ftpts or above in his last three wins, with his most recent success scoring 105.  Finally, Collier is a favorite dog on the card as he holds a statistical advantage on the feet, which his 28 SS/R shows compared to Arlovski’s 18.6.

Fighters	Arlovski	Collier
Record	33-20	13-6
Prop to Consider	+130 Decision	+300 Decision
M/L	-140	+120
% Of Highest Winning Method	41% Decision	24% Decision
TD/R	0.1	0.2
SS/R	18.6	28

DFS UFC Fight Night: Vera Font

• Figueiredo 8000 
• Sherman 6000