Winning DFS MMA UFC Daukas vs Blaydes 20max MME Approach for Draftkings Lineups Strategy

Building 20 MMA Lineups

20 lineups was a challenge in terms of building a process for MMA. Luckily, DFSA has some really smart guys like @Burns273 who will gladly help me as I explore the art of being a DFS player. It was mind blowing to have Burns walk me through the use of Standard Error, Mean scores and Standard deviations in order to create an approach based on quantitative analysis.

Results

It was found that the MMA player pool had to drastically decrease to 14-15 in order to generate nuts lineups using 20. However, there was promise to reading through the DFSA Notes and research station in order to make educated fades as you build your pool. For example, if you are reading through notes carefully, you may notice a coach say, “It will be very hard for this guy to hit value, even with a win”. IMO this is a suggestion to fade a player you may be on the fence with as you build your pool.

Lock

Locking 1 stud continued to hold up for 20 MMA lineups as it did for the other approaches written with 8 out of 10 successful backtests possessing a stud lock. Suggestion: Listen to the podcast and read notes in order to find your lock.

Building 20 DFS UFC Lineups

• Marley 5 Star fight favorite fighter get’s a 😍
• Marley 4 Star fight favorite receives a ❤️
• Lock Marley favorite Fighter on the card 100%
• 0% Randomization
• 20 lineups
• 1 unique
• Adjust Max own to 70%
• Ensure your pool is 14-15 MMA fighters
• Lock 1 Stud

MMA Disclaimer:

I am not a sports bettor, so my props to consider are related to DFS scoring. If I have put a prop next to a fighter it is because I feel it will help contribute to building lineups.

Saldana (8,300)  Vs. Souza (7,900)

Saldana is a slight favorite, but he has shown to not score well enough to pay off his $8,300 price tag on Draftkings. However, Souza is intriguing at a closer look at the fight props as Souza is merely a +175 to win by decision. This line tells us that while Saldana is the favorite at -105 to Souza -115, however at a +175 for Souza to take it to decision and win makes him worth a field match as he is only $7,900 on Draftkings. Also, one thing to note is that Saldana is strong utilizing leg kicks, which could generate DFS MMA points over a fight that goes the distance with Saldana winning. Therefore, as of now, I see myself fading this fight, but as we get closer to lock I could see myself adding 5-10% Saldana, but not much more.

Fighter	Saldana	Souza
Fight Record	15-7	10-2
DK Price	$8,300	$7,900
Prop to consider	+180 Decision	+175 decision
% Method for victory	60% Decision	70% Decision
M/L	-120	+100

Borschev ($8,700) Vs. Diakiese (7,500)

This fight will have some fireworks and will be a great fight to target, however I am in favor of the dog here. Given that only 20 lineups are being made, I see myself  under on Borschev as the value is on the dog here. As you will see below the lines are not that far off, therefore I am going to be more invested more in the dog here. At a -200 on the fight ending within the distance, my hope is that Diakiese will be able to hit a finish and hit value. Over his last 10 wins, Diakese has landed a finish 50% of those wins. It is important to consider that Borschev has only lost 1 fight to a still to be tested 3-1 William Starks. Likewise, because of this I do not see myself full fading Borschev as I am deciding between slightly under or field weight. In conclusion,  Diakiese is on a 2 fight losing streak most recently getting subbed by Rafael Alves. Therefore, while I like the dog here, but there are still a lot of realms where he is defeated.

Fighter	Diakiese	Borschev
Fight Record	14-5	6-1
DK Price	$7,500	$8,700
Prop to consider	+300 KO/TKO	+130 KO/TKO
% Most used method for victory	83% KO/TKO	58% Decision
M/L	+125	-145

 

Nicolau (7800) Vs. Dvorak (8400)

A lot of dog or pass calls here. Therefore, given that both MMA fighters have shown an ability to score well, ownership will be had on both sides of this at projected field ownership. Why? Nicolau is a competent fighter, and he is fighting a less experienced fighter in Dvorak. While Dvorak has shown talent, there is always a chance for the dog to pull it off when they come in with the background of Nicolau. Furthermore, Nicolau has averaged 102.6 fantasy points over his last 3 wins suggesting a dog win here could go far in GPPs. However, Dvorak is too talented of a fighter to write off and ownership will be had on him as well at 10% above. Approaching this fight, keep in mind Dvorak has averaged 75.7 ftpts over his last 3 wins. Therefore, for now the call is field ownership, but ownership projections have to be analyzed before a definite answer.

Fighter	Dvorak	Nicolau
Fight Record	20-3	17-3
DK Price	$8,400	7,800
Prop to Consider	+140 Decision	+250 Decision
% Method for victory	55% TKO or Submission	76% Decision
M/L	+115	-135

Maia (6800) Vs. Fiorot (9400)

Fiorot is good for a decision or a KO victory, but the higher probability is a win by decision for Fiorot as the lines are -125 decision. The volume combined with fighting a less competent fighter makes a case for playing Fiorot well above the field (30-40% above). However, a small sprinkle of Maia may not be the craziest idea as this fight has a high probability to go to decision and could easily end up a striking battle. Finally, Fiorot averages 102.66 ftpts over the last 3 wins adding to the appeal of investing in her.

Fighter	Maia	Fiorot
Fight Record	19-8	8-1
DK Price	$6,800	$9,400
Prop to Consider	-125 Decision win	None
% Method for victory	73% Decision	62% KO/TKO
M/L	+340	-450

Gutierrez ($7,700) Vs. Danaa ($8,500)

Both fighters are not competent wrestlers, therefore this may quickly turn into a high volume striking battle. When building lineups consider Danaa has a +175 tag on winning by KO. Also, the fight itself has a -135 line for it not to make it decision, and Gutierrez has not been knocked out. Gutierrez is a dog worth investing in (Field Ownership Match) as his chin may serve him well in a fight that goes to decision.  Again, Gutierrez has not been finished in a MMA fight with a -135 not to go to decision! In conclusion, both fighters will be owned at field weight.

Fighter	Danaa	Gutierrez
Fight Record	12-2	14-8
DK Price	$8,500	$7,700
Prop to consider	N/A	N/A
% Method for victory	66% KO/TKO	47%
M/L	-130	+110

McMann Vs. Rosa

Rosa averages 102.5 Ftpts over her last 3 wins and is a -225 favorite against McMann. However, McMann’s ability to produce take downs and wear down Rosa make her worth a second look. However at a closer look, McMann is 41 and has lost 3 of her last 4 fights with her only win producing 89.1 Ftpts. Also, Rosa has a majority decision wins, however she is a +400 to win by KO. This tells us that she does show the ability to get a finish, and if it last multiple rounds could end up in the Nuts with a finish by Rosa. +400 is not something to brag on, however it does show there is the chance there for the fighter to get it done with a KO. Therefore, it is going to be a fade on McMann and 10% above the field on Rosa as of now.

Fighter	McMann	Rosa
Fight Record	15-3	12-6
DK Price	$8,900	$7,200
Prop to consider	+130 Decision	-130 KO/Decision
% Method for victory	45% Submission	54% Decision
M/L	+165	-195

 

Magny ($8,800) Vs. Griffin ($7,400)

This is going to be Magny here and fade or light ownership of Griffin. Magny has the ability to take it to the mat as well as stand on the feet with Griffin. However, Magny has scored 98.6, 63.4, 100.4 and 71.9 over the last 4 wins he has had. The possibility of a late finish or a high scoring decision makes Magny an intriguing play here. Therefore, there may be light MMA ownership on the dog, but strong chance of Magny or pass here.

Fighter	Magny	Griffin
Fight Record	25-8	18-8
DK Price	$8,800	$7,400
Prop to consider	-120 Decision	N/A
% Most used method for victory	10 most Recent wins: 60% KO/TKO	10 most Recent wins: 70% KO/TKO
M/L	-275	+220

 

Latifi (8600) Vs. Oleinik (7600)

Oleinik’s ability to land submissions makes him a live dog, however he has only scored over 100 ftpts in 1 of his last 4 wins. Also, while Oleinik can land submissions, Latifi has never been submitted. Also, Latifi has lost 3 of his last 4, and only scored 64.1 ftpts in his last win against Boser. However, he has had multiple performances that exceed 100 ftpts creating interest in him. Also, he has shown the ability to land a submission and finish with a KO. This fight may ultimately be a pass, but there may be some ownership on Latifi if any is had on this fight.

Fighter	Latifi	Oleinik
Fight Record	15-8	59-16
DK Price	$8,600	$7,600
Prop to consider	-190 KO/TKO	+200 Submission
% Method for victory	Sub/KO/TKO 55%	10 fight sample: 80% Submission
M/L	-210	+175

Askarov (9100) Vs. Kara-France (7100)

Askarov is priced up in a fight that should be competitive. At 7100 I will take Kara-France for the dog play here as he has shown improvement and recently landed a KO win against both Garbarandt & Bontorin resulting in scores above 105 in both fights.  However, at a closer look, Askarov will not be a walk through the park as he has the ability to go the distance, land a KO or stick a submission. Also, he recently pulled out a unanimous decision against Alexandre Pantoja (22-4). However, recent scores have not been strong with none of the 3 exceeding 89.3 fpts. Therefore both MMA fighters will be owned, but there will be a elevation on Kara-France while slightly under or at the field’s ownership of Askarov.

Fighter	Askarov	Kara-France
Fight Record	14-0	23-9
DK Price	$9,100	$7,100
Prop to consider	-125 Decision	-190 FTGD
% Method for victory	42% Submission	61% KO/TKO
M/L	-425	+320

Brown (8200)Vs. Barberena (8000)

For DFS purposes, both fighters will be owned with a lean towards Matt Brown. Both fighters show the ability to pull out a win here, but it appears to be more likely that Brown will be able to overcome Barberena in a decision or KO victory. However, a fan favorite in Barberena has been in some wars and is not going to be an easy win here for Matt Brown. Therefore both players will be owned at: Brown 10-20% above the field/ Barberena field ownership.

Fighter	Brown	Barberena
Fight Record	23-18	16-8
DK Price	$ 8,200	$8,000
Prop to consider	+165 KO/TKO	+250 KO/TKO
% Method for victory	87% KO/TKO (16 fights)	80% KO/TKO (10 fights)
M/L	-110	-110

 

Wood (7200) Vs. Grasso (9000)

This is going to be a dog or pass, it does not appear that Grasso produces enough volume to consistently score well for MMA DFS. Therefore, although Wood is the rightful dog here, I would rather invest in the upside of a Wood win at her price and avoid paying up for Grasso.

Fighter	Wood	Grasso
Fight Record	15-7	13-3
DK Price	$9,000	$7300
Prop to consider	+330 Decision	-135 Decision
% Method for victory	73%	89% Decision
M/L	+255	-255

Blaydes (9200) Vs. Daukas (7000)

Blaydes is going to be the highest owned fighter on this slate for me (80%), however I will fill the other 20% with Daukas as a KO win for him could produce a great score at a 7000 price tag. Although it is less likely, it is still a possibility, therefore I am going to make sure I am there in the case the dog pulls it out here at 20% ownership. In contrast, Blaydes is clearly the superior fighter and can produce a strong score that will more than likely be needed for the nuts if he is able to do what he is expected to do. Furthermore, both fighters will be owned and the fight itself will be in 100% of lineups entered this weekend.

Fighter	Blaydes	Daukas
Fight Record	15-3	12-4
DK Price	$9,200	$7,000
Prop to consider	-110 KO/TKO	+450 KO/TKO
% Method for victory	67% KO/TKO	91% KO/TKO
M/L	-450	+340

See link below for other MME strategies.