Swimming with Sharks
The intent of this article will focus on UFC 272. While the outcome of last night was merely breaking even in the mini-max, it makes it intriguing to research the approach as this weekend marked 3 straight weekends of at least having minimal losses (Cashed past 2 weekends). This is significant in that I am not an analyst or close to an expert in MMA, but DFSA has me covered! So if you are like me before I began this research, and fear playing MMA because you lack knowledge, follow this reflection in order to see if you cannot find a successful way to enter the field of hunting tournaments in UFC.
Being Humble
Before moving forward it is important to note that it is believed that humility is the only way this success has been able to be produced. 4 years ago I was so arrogant, and wanted to be the smartest guy in the room, so guess what? You got it! I would have tried to be so sharp in a sport that I do not know, leading to instant GPP disaster.
Using Resources
Again, I am not an expert, but isn’t that what makes this approach so intriguing? MMA is intimidating, let’s face it, there are a lot of sharp dudes out there with some really good takes on the fight. Well, this is where the research comes into play!
DFS Equity
I recorded my hours of research this week and it came out to roughly 6 hours over the course of the week. The 3 primary resources used over the week were the “Dog or Pass” Podcast, Marley’s Podcast, cheat sheet and Domination Station. Each resource is significant in that it provides expert analysis of some sort.
Lack of Bias
So, I am more of a glass half full sort of person. Therefore, let’s look at how not knowing a sport and players may in fact help eliminate bias if you play your cards correctly. Does that mean you get an edge from sitting on your butt and throwing picks in that you read on the cheat sheet?! Heck NO!! You have to put work into researching ownership, fight lines, expert takes and take notes in order to take your stances based off of the research. Fact is, if you want to be good at something, it is much less about what you know and much more about the work you put in.
You need a team
While a lack of knowledge may help benefit bias elimination, it is also important to have a team around you that can make up for your lack of knowledge. This is why I am glad to be in DFSA as collaborating with coaches and teammates helps me to make educated decisions on sports I may have less knowledge of. Join today and be a part of the DFSA community!
Last week’s best lineup!
Breaking Old Habits
For the past 3 years I have listened to Cody Saftic and put his picks in a SE tournament. Upon reflection and getting coached, it may not be the best strategy for repeating success in GPP tournaments. However, instead of scrapping Cody, the research found a way to incorporate his analysis in the process. For example, instead of removing Dog or Pass, I am using it to help me make tough decisions I come to on the slate. For example, main event, there was a small part of me that wanted to jump on the Masvidal narrative at 20%, however I listened to dog or pass and they confirmed the other expert takes I am using with DFSA. Therefore, Masvidal got the fade based off of the approach and hedging off tough decisions with a credible outside source.
Back to the approach
The following approach was used in attacking the UFC 272 Mini-Max
150 Lineups
For the purpose of this study, Marley’s cheat Sheet is used in order to execute the following steps:
- Marley 5 Star fight favorite fighter get’s a 😍
- Marley 4 Star fight favorite receives a ❤️
- Lock Marley favorite Fighter on the card 100%
- 0% Randomization
- 150 lineups
- 1 unique
- Adjust Max own to 50%
- Elevate second favorite play to 70% (Umar)
- Get Pool down to 20 fighters
- Lock 1 Stud
Research station is another great tool to use!
Discussion
While money was not won last night, it is unrealistic to go into the mini-max thinking you are going to win every weekend. The numbers are merely against you in making that a goal, however you can attempt to replicate success and have a consistently successful approach. Therefore, my goal every weekend is to at least break even on the investment I put into MMA, knowing that if I am following things such as Geek’s Owernship Leverage Pod, I will eventually hit, and properly managing bankroll, will statistically cash a profit over a period of time.
Closing thoughts
The sport is a marathon not a race, so it is important to reflect on tournaments and look to refine your process. As the psychological aspect of this sport can get the best of you, if you are not working to maintain awareness of your approach. Also, if you are in DFSA, talking to guys like Marley and Geek really helps me to make tough decisions without relying on my own lack of understanding of the sport LOL!
Want to jump in??
If an average joe like me having success in DFS has inspired you then I encourage you to join DFSA and jump in the discord. That is the #1 tool that DFSA has in terms of my personal growth as a player because it gives you access to a bunch of hard working, sharp guys, who are transparent. The network at the Army also has made it more fun for me as it takes me back to my days of competing on a football team and building comradery with the guys who you grind it out week after week. DFSA is the place to be and I am glad to be a part! Helmets up!
Did I Spark an Idea in Life or DFS??
Come talk to me! I am in the discord 24/7 and value connecting with people.
Twitter: @geno_casas
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