Tournaments: A look at the numbers

Below you will find the 3 statistics that were utilized in order to create the systematic approach to large field GPP tournaments. Overall we have seen some significant success ranging from 20-150 results, and we are excited to continue to evolve our process in order to continue seeing the green weekly!

Mean 655.9094
Std. Error of Mean 7.87292
Std. Deviation 56.22390

From these 3 measures the protocols from Articles 1, 2 & 3 were generated in order to develop approaches for 300, 150 and 60 lineups.

For the purpose of this article, we will focus on 150 lineup building as that will be my approach to this weekend. You will see in the fight outlines, there are a lot of competitive fights. Therefore, this approach will not encompass a locked player as the desire is to try to get distribution across a slate with a large amount of competitive fights.

Topuria (9300) Vs.Herbert (6900)

Topuria appears to be the superior fighter in this one based off of data & expert takes. Also, Topuria is 11-0 at this time and 65% of those wins have ended by KO/Submission with only one of those wins making it past Round 1. Something to consider if you are playing 150 is that Topuria is fighting up a class, and is giving up an 8 inch reach advantage/ 6 inch height advantage. These variables make Herbert and interesting large field GPP play as there is the slight possibility that size overcomes skill in this fight. Do I believe that will happen? Absolutely not, but a dart is a dart.

Aspinall (8300)  Vs. Volkov (7900)

We will be overweight on Volkov & Aspinall as Volkov is hard to knock out and this fight could last into later rounds.  This is a fight to target both sides as Aspinall is a rising star, however Volkov has the experience on his side. It is a 5 round fight, which means it can generate a lot of points, and both fighters are relatively cheap given their ceilings in this fight. Out of the 150 hundred lineups built this weekend, one of these fighters will be in 145 of them.

**In a sample of the last 10 cards, 70% of the nuts lineups for those cards possessed a piece of the main event (Backtest Data Collection).

McCann (8400) V. Carolina (7800)

This fight tempting  in that Carolina’s skill and work on the feet can lead her to a decision victory. Also, she has 2 finishes in her 8 wins, so finishing within the distance is in the realm of possibilities for her. However, if the fight goes to the ground, the advantage goes to “Meatball” McCann as she should be able to dictate the fight as long as it stays on the ground. McCann looked impressive in her last decision win against Kim and brought a lot of energy to the crowd. Given the fight location, I give McCann the edge.

Durden (7100) Vs. Mokaev (9100)

This is a good fight to target, especially on the Mokaev side. 4 finishes in 5 wins! Also, one of those finishes came in the 3rd round demonstrating Mokaev’s ability to generate a high number of fantasy points as a finish in later rounds will have a positive effect on fantasy scoring. At 12-3-1, Durden is a capable opponent, especially with his extensive experience in the ring.  Add that to fighting a less experienced fighter, Durden may be worth a little sprink sprink.

Nelson (9200) Vs. Sato (7000)

Nelson looks promising for a sub win here, which will score well, especially if the fight goes 2 or 3 rounds. Sato does not appear to be at the same level as Nelson, so this is one of those fights where crossing out Sato and investing in Nelson may be a promising approach.

Hooker (8200)  Vs. Allen (8000)

Hooker cutting weight makes this fight more interesting, but Hooker is the better fighter. Therefore, this fight will be Hooker or pass for DFS purposes as Allen does not appear to have a high chance of scoring well even in a win. Allen’s last 3 wins average out to a score of 68 fantasy points. Hooker scored 107.7 at $8700 in his last win.  This makes hooker an appealing play as he proves to show a high ceiling through his finishing ability, but he may be best kept at field ownership in 150.

Shore (7600) Vs. Valiev (8600)

The pick is shore here, however ownership will not be elevated above the field as of today. However, ownership will be at the field level or slightly below as Shore tends to run out of gas rather quickly, but if he can get it done early, he is good for a win.

Krylov (8700) Vs. Craig (7500)

Krylov has lost to 3 studs, so there is a high confidence in his ability to bounce back in this spot. However, if the fight goes to the ground, Craig immediately becomes a live dog in that he can land a submission here. The pick is Kylov, but for GPP purposes, some ownership (5-10%) will be had on the dog side of this. If Craig can land a submission, he will more than likely land in the nuts at this price.

**A fair amount of Krylov at this price could pay off in a loaded slate. Although he has gotten beaten by good opponents, his last 3 wins have averaged out to 103.13 Draftkings points.

Pimblett (9400) V. Vargas (6800)

This one is interesting in that Paddy “The Baddy” is a significant favorite, however a case can be made for the dog in this fight. At a closer look, both fighters have the same professional records if you exclude Vargas’s illegal knee(17-3). other 2 being by decision. While on the other side, Pimblett has already been submitted earlier in his career (Ray: Heel Hook 08.31.19). If you look at ownership leverage and cap space, it would be very nice to be on the right side of an upset here. Pimblett has home field advantage in that the fight is in Liverpool.

Dog Shot

This is where getting some ownership on Vargas comes in because there will be so much hype around Pimblett that the possibility of an upset will go overlooked. Instead of locking into Vargas and fading Pimblett, both players will be judged based off of projected ownership and 10% will be added to it to get their ownership for 150. For example, if Pimblett is projected 50% ownership, he will be in 60% of 150 and the same rule will be followed for Vargas.

Mckenna (8800) Vs. Reed (7400)

20 lb jump here for Reed as she is fighting up in this one. Reed does not do well with high pace and pressure, for example, Eubanks was able to capitalize on this against Reed. The confidence in Mckenna here leads to calling this one a Mckenna or pass if you are building 150 lineups. The game plan here should be high pressure and takedown attempts on the behalf of Mckenna which shows promise for scoring point in DFS! With a high confidence rating in Mckenna, I see myself setting the cap 20-30% above the field.

Wood (8900) Vs. Morales (7300)

Cody Saftic makes a strong point with wood in that his leg kicks are lethal, and that will be his path to victory. With the ability to land a significant amount of leg kicks will do nothing but benefit his score. Also, there is the chance Wood wears down Morales and chops him down resulting in a nice DFS score for his price. This is another one that I like, so I see myself being 20-25% above the field on Wood.

Grundy (8500) Vs. Amirkhani (7700)

Grundy or pass here (Field Ownership)

Pavlovich (9000) Vs. Abdurakhimov (7200)

Pavlovich likely comes out guns blazing, which may result in a knockout victory in R1, but he also has the ability to take the distance and get a decision. Reading Geek’s take on this one solidified it  when he pointed out “Abdurakhimov is not particularly good at anything”. It will be Pavlovich or pass here.

Slate Approach

150 Lineups

For the purpose of this study, the cheat Sheet is used in order to execute the following steps: 

• Fade 1 of Marley’s Fades
• Fade 1 of Geek’s Fades
• Fade 1 of EricF’s Fades
• Circle back to continue to fade until pool is 18-20
• No Lock
• 5% Randomization
• 150 lineups
• 1 unique
• Use a 10% rule for going over and under on fight ownership using the Max Cap in the DS
• Fade enough players to get pool down to 18-20

Over the Field Plays

• Wood 8900
• Topuria 9300
• Vargas 6800
• Durden 7100
• Volkov 7900 (will not stack)
• Aspinall 8300  (will not stack)

Match the Field Plays

• Pimblett 9400
• Nelson 9200 (May end up over on him)

Under the Field

• Mckenna 8800
• Reed 7400

Fade

• Mokaev 9100
• Herbert 6900
• Sato 7000

Closing Thoughts

This is a loaded card! Likewise, we will try to spread out ownership among the pool of players. Of course this is a strategy for 150me, however @ffootballgeek has a great video on ownership leverage that can help give you an edge in SE, 3Max & MME