Introduction
MMA GPP Tournaments offer a unique makeup for the sport of DFS by being highly volatile, and having a smaller field of players. In most cases, one must correctly identify the winners of each fight on their lineup to have a shot at the nuts, but that does not mean you will hit the nuts by simply guessing fight winners correctly. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop a consistently winning Mass entry System for MMA DFS. For the sake of teaching and learning, we will begin by reviewing the process executed in order to help develop a winning systems.
Evolving
Recently, I have attempted to evolve my game by creating a valid system for Backtesting and recording data. Furthermore, this past weekend, I remember geek saying, “You are not serious if you are not Backtesting”. What a simple but profound statement for all those trying to take down a tournament and find the nuts. Therefore, I wanted to share some user friendly strategies for Backtesting as we will spend the next series of articles discussing this and it would be a disservice not to provide you with a framework to work off of as you work to develop a consistent system of your own.
Backtest Tips:
-
- Open a Spreadsheet and Title it
- Run A backtest and set to “Final Pts”
- Collect top 3 possible scores
- Record 3 top scores at the top
- Run a Raw backtest for:
- 100%,75%, 50%, 25% Max Exposure
- Record Scores from Raw
- Test out different theories using the backtest to analyze what it takes to get to the nuts
Confused?? Jump in the discord and someone will break it down for you!
Protocol for Research
For the purpose of this study, Marley’s cheat Sheet is used in order to execute the following steps:
- Marley 5 Star fight favorite fighter get’s a 😍
- Marley 4 Star fight favorite receives a ❤️
- Lock Marley favorite Fighter on the card 100%
- Full Fade the 2 fighters from the worse fight according to Cheat Sheet
- 50% max Exposure
- 0% Randomization
- 300 lineups
- 1 unique
Results
| Fight | Nuts Score | Fade a Dud/Lock a stud/Marley suggestions |
| Hill VS. Walker | 630.33 | 622.54 |
| Kattar VS. Chikadze | 665 | 622.85 |
| UFC 270 | 745 | 745 |
| UFC 271 | 703.87 | 703.87 |
| Hermansson VS. Strickland | 689.3 | 679.32 |
| Lewis VS. Daukas | 669.07 | 659.64 |
From the data collected above, it can be suggested that the Lock a stud, fade a dud formula shows promise in being able to consistently take down tournaments. The result of the backtest data collection was that 2 nuts scores out of 5 lineups were achieved (UFC 271 and UFC 270).
Looking Deeper
Furthermore, based off of this sample, a 33% success rate in achieving nuts. Also, 3 more lineups finished within 10 points or better of the nuts. Therefore, there was an 83% success rate in terms of the system achieving a nuts score or within 10 points of the nuts score.
Hole in the research
Clearly, the major limitation of this study is the small sample size of 6 lineups used, however we will continue to backtest further into the past as well as maintain the current slates in order to build a claim for this system as a method for repeated success in mass multi entries.
Exposure
Based off of the current data collected, I am confident that fading a dud fight and locking a stud will increase your chances of winning a tournament. Also, there are consistent results for lineups when coupled with a 50% max exposure on the domination station.
Lock A stud, Fade a Dud
While I am confident in the “Lock a stud fade a dud”, there is more room for research on this as well as how the cheat sheet is utilized. We will continue to investigate locks in order to narrow down the failure rate as well as the success rate. I say failure, because it is essential we embrace the failure that accompanies the variance in MMA as well as the failure rate of playing GPP tournaments.
Future Research
The study provides a rationale for Army members to utilize coaches notes and suggestions in order to build lineups that will produce success. We will continue to investigate and refine this process! Finally, thanks for being on this journey with me and I look forward to exploring together!
Did I Spark an Idea in Life or DFS??
Come talk to me! I am in the discord 24/7 and value connecting with people.
Twitter: @geno_casas
Pricing for DFS Army VIP
Coupon Code for 10% off: DFLGENO
