Review
Before we proceed I am going to refresh you on the lineup building system used in the Article 1:
Protocol for Research
For the purpose of this study, Marley’s cheat Sheet is used in order to execute the following steps:
- Marley 5 Star fight favorite fighter get’s a 😍
- Marley 4 Star fight favorite receives a ❤️
- Lock Marley favorite Fighter on the card 100%
- Full Fade the 2 fighters from the worse fight according to Cheat Sheet
- 50% max Exposure
- 0% Randomization
- 300 lineups
- 1 unique
In academic studies, professors emphasize the importance of being able to take a big idea and narrow it down into a deliberate literary work. For the purpose of DFS, we will follow the same notion, however we will work to narrow down the 300 lineups down to 150. Also, several members have asked about the reasoning behind generating 300 for UFC MME.
Rationale
The rationale behind 300 lineups this is based off of a culmination of coaching and teaching experiences that has led to the believe that all things that are successful start with an initial progression and gradually improve from that point. In this case, we used 300 lineups simply because it is statistically more advantageous in regards to hitting the nuts, the more lineups you are generating.
Narrowing it down
The protocol noted above will be repeated, however we will use 150 lineups in order to analyze the results. Also, if minor tweaks are needed for the 150 lineup generator, we will make special note to this.
Tweaking Exposure Maxes W/ 150 MME
- Adjust Max own to 70%
- Fade 2-4 dud fights or fighters
- Lock 1 Stud!
*** These were the only adjustments made as the goal of the research is to create a seamless process for mass entering MMA DFS Tournaments.
Results
| Fight | Nuts | Backtest Score |
| UFC 269 | 695.04 | 669.00 |
| UFC 270 | 745 | 692.00 |
| UFC 271 | 703.57 | 643.57 |
| Holloway Vs. Rodriguez | 740.07 | 740.07!! |
| Kitarr Vs. Chiadze | 665.57 | 665.57!!! |
| Hill Vs. Walker | 740.07 | 740.07!!! |
| Daukas Vs. Lewis | 669.07 | 624.95 |
Previous Data
The best part about being a part of a community like the DFSA is that my theories and rationales for research are consistently challenged. If practitioners cannot defend their theories through research, it may be advantageous to adjust the theory. Therefore, the above noted findings suggest a grounds for increased discussion around mass entering UFC DFS contests. In article 1, there was a strong claim made in that 300 lineups with 50% exposure while using DFSA Cheat sheets it will lead to repeatable success in MME tournaments for UFC.
Adjustments for 150 Lineups
In the research it was found that similar results can be obtained for 150 lineups instead of 300 by making a few slight adjustments to the process. While 300 lineups show success with 50% exposure and two duds faded in terms of obtaining the nuts. However, we were only able to find similar results by adjusting the exposure to 70% and adjusting the player fade from 2 to 2-4 based off of notes from DFSA Cheat sheets. Likewise, we were able to maintain the 1 stud lock rule as with 300 lineups in order to produce a repeatable, winning system.
Failure rate
If you are working on 150 lineups, simply adjusting the ownership max while also using the notes to find 2-4 fighters to full fade from the slate. As you will see above, the same process was used for all slates backtested in order to maintain transparency and show its failure rate as well as success. The findings resulted in the conclusion that the backtest data result in a 42% failure rate if failure is 30 points below the nuts or less.
Success Rate
3 out of 7 150 entries managed to obtain a lineup that hit the nuts, which can further be synthesized as a 42% “Nuts rate”. Also, 1 other lineup was within 30 points of the nuts, which is 4 out 7 lineups hitting or close to the nuts resulting in the conclusion that this model can provide players with a 57% success rate when adding “within the nuts” to the achievement outcomes.
Conclusion
Using the domination station and cheat sheets together to build a large amount of lineups has shown over the course of multiple backtest to be beneficial for helping players obtain the “almighty nuts”. Furthermore, play within your range, and I believe you can be profitable using this system.
Bankroll Suggestion
In order to afford more bankroll for MMA this weekend I have faded NHL & PGA for a week and a half, which resulted in an extra 75$ bankroll. At this time, with plenty of money to spare, I have successfully reserved 196 contests. Manage your bank and don’t spend more than you have.
Why?
Additionally, the chart above shows losing days, but if using percentage based spending and allocating funds, you can now chase the nuts without going bankrupt. For example, in NFL, I managed to win 4,000$ on a big game, I divided the money up and talked with my wife about my bankroll in order to have enough money to keep playing. However, I still have not changed the money I am spending weekly just because I won, as I use 6% nightly to play DFS. After I won the $4,000 I went on a serious cold streak for a month and only managed to finish in the top 5% 2 times in the entire month of playing MME contests.
Hitting the Nuts with your Lineups!!!
Despite the cold streak, the outcome of the 2 month period was a profit of 20$ overall. “How, you only finished top 5% 2 times in a month?” Well, being able to manage the money spent nightly simply allows you to have more money in your account when you do hit the nuts! Therefore, intentional management of your bankroll will help ensure this system is REPEATABLE because you can’t repeat if you don’t have money to play.
Take down Time!
Whether you are doing 300 or 150 lineups, you have a system to refer to when participating in MME contests. I can’t wait to see the winning lineup pictures that are about to be coming!!! Happy hunting my friends!
Did I Spark an Idea in Life or DFS??
Come talk to me! I am in the discord 24/7 and value connecting with people.
Twitter: @geno_casas
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